scholarly journals ANALISIS MODEL ESTIMASI NET PRESENT VALUE PADA PENJADWALAN PENAMBANGAN TERBUKA BATUBARA PIT 11 PT ARUTMIN INDONESIA SITE KINTAP KABUPATEN TANAH LAUT

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Fitria Handayani Amar ◽  
Nurhakim Nurhakim ◽  
Romla Noor Hakim
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
General Description ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Price Discount ◽  
Coal Price ◽  
Delay Cost ◽  
Average Rain

PT Arutmin Indonesia merupakan salah satu perusahaan yang bergerak dibidang industri pertambangan. PT Arutmin Indonesia memiliki kontrak  PKP2B dengan umur kontrak yang berakhir pada  2 November 2020. Penelitian dilakukan disalah satu area PKP2B PT Arutmin yaitu pit 11 di site Kintap. Pada pit 11 akan dilakukan eksploitasi dengan melakukan penjadwalan penambangan yang dipertimbangkan berdasarkan analisis kriteria ekonomi. Analisis kriteria ekonomi pada pit 11 digunakan analisis kriteria net present value (NPV).Pada penelitian proyek penambangan pit 11 terdiri atas dua general description yaitu penjadwalan penambangan dan analisis net present value. Penjadwalan penambangan dikerjakan dengan bantuan aplikasi perangkat lunak Xpac 7.14, dimana penjadwalan disimulasikan menjadi 2 simulasi berdasarkan penempatan fleet untuk menentukan penjadwalan penambangan berdasarkan target produksi.  2 simulasi penjadwalan akan diestimasikan berdasarkan forecast rain delay menjadi 3 skenario yaitu skenario 1 pada saat minimum rain delay, skenario 2 pada saat average rain delay, dan skenario 3 maximum rain delay. Dari masing-masing simulasi penjadwalan penambangan akan didapat target produksi batubara, volme overburden dan penentuajn jarak pengangkutan yang akan dianalisis tigkat keekonomisannya berdasarkan kriteria net present value dengan pertimbangan biaya (cost) penambangan dan pendapatan (revenue) dengan komoditas harga batubara (coal price) dan discount rate yang berlaku di PT Arutmin Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan SImulasi 1, penambangan akan berlangsung selama 10 bulan (skenario 1 dan 2 ), dan 11 bulan (skenario  3). Adapun bila menggunakan Simulasi 2, penambangan akan berlangsung selama 12 bulan (skenario 1), 14 bulan (skenario 2) dan 15 bulan (skenario 3Hasil Nilai NPV dari masing-masing simulasi 1 dan 2 didapat untuk skenario 1 nilai NPV yaitu $  29,608,151.48  skenario 2 besar NPV yaitu $29,589,419.87 , dan skenario 3 besar NPV yaitu $ 29,552,139.84. Sedangkan hasil dari simulasi 2 untuk skenario 1 didapat besar NPV yaitu $ 29,552,139.30 , skenario 2 besar NPV yaitu $  29,271,760.24 dan skenario 3 besar NPV yaitu $ 29,150,450.08. Berdasarkan hasil perbandingan, nilai NPV terbesar akan didapatkan bila penjadwalan penambangan dilaksanakan dengan Simulasi 1 yaitu penjadwalan produksi dilakukan dengan menempatkan 2 fleet di pit 11A kemudian dilanjutkan 2 fleet di Pit 11BKata-kata kunci: Fleet, Forecast Rain Delay, Cost, Revenue, Coal Price, Discount Rate, Net Present Value

scholarly journals Estimation of the Value of Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Services under Different Scenarios in the Central China (the Qinling-Daba Mountain Area)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuyang Yu ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Zixiang Zhou ◽  
Li Zeng ◽  
Cheng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Sequestration ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Mountain Area

The Qinling-Daba Mountain area is a transitional zone between north and south China and not much is known about its carbon storage, particularly its pool of soil organic carbon (SOC). Given this shortcoming, more reliable information regarding its SOC is needed. In light of this, we quantified above and below-ground carbon sinks using both the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model and an improved carbon cycle process model. We also assessed the net present value (NPV) for carbon budgets under different carbon price and discount rate scenarios using the NPV model. Our results indicated that the net primary productivity (NPP) was lower in places with low density forests that were situated at high elevation. The spatial distribution of carbon storage depended on NPP production and litter decompositon, which reflected specific vegetation as well as temperature and moisture gradients. The lowest amounts of carbon storage were in the center of the Qinling Mountains and also partly in the Daba area, which is a location associated with sparse grassland. Contrastingly, the broad-leaved forested area showed the highest amount of carbon storage. NPV was positively correlated with discount rate and carbon prices, thus resulting in the highest values in the forests and grassland. The net present value of total soil carbon sequestration in the six scenarios in 2015 was 3.555 b yuan, 3.621 b yuan, 5.421 b yuan, 5.579 b yuan, 7.530 b yuan, 7.929 b yuan; The net present value of total soil carbon sequestration in 6 scenarios in 2017 is 2.816 b yuan, 2.845 b yuan, 4.361 b yuan, 4.468 b yuan, 6.144 b yuan, 6.338 b yuan (billion = 109; b; RMB is the legal currency of the China, and its unit is yuan, 1 euro = 7.7949 yuan, and 1 pound = 9.2590 yuan). Levying a carbon tax would be a notable option for decision makers as they develop carbon emission reduction policies. Given this, incorporating discount rates and carbon pricing would allow for more realistic value estimations of soil organic carbon. This approach would also provide a theoretical basis and underscore the practical significance for the government to set a reasonable carbon price.

Value-Creating Investment Strategies to Manage Risk From Structural Market Uncertainties: Switching and Compound Options in (V)HTR Technologies

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike La¨uferts ◽  
Charlotte Halbe ◽  
Aliki van Heek
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Technology Investment ◽  
Compound Options ◽  
Managerial Flexibility ◽  
Strategic Value

To measure the value of a technology investment under uncertainty with standard techniques like net present value (NPV) or return on investment (ROI) will often uncover the difficulty to present convincing business case. Projected cash flows are inefficient or the discount rate chosen to compensate for the risk is so high, that it is disagreeable to the investor’s requirements. Decision making and feasibility studies have to look beyond traditional analysis to reveal the strategic value of a technology investment. Here, a Real Option Analysis (ROA) offers a powerful alternative to standard discounted cash-flow (DCF) methodology by risk-adjusting the cash flow along the decision path rather than risk adjusting the discount rate. Within the GEN IV initiative attention is brought not only towards better sustainability, but also to broader industrial application and improved financing. Especially the HTR design is full of strategic optionalities: The high temperature output facilitates penetration into other non-electricity energy markets like industrial process heat applications and the hydrogen market. The flexibility to switch output in markets with multi-source uncertainties reduces downside risk and creates an additional value of over 50% with regard to the Net Present Value without flexibility. The supplement value of deploying a modular (V)HTR design adds over 100% to the project value using real option evaluation tools. Focus of this paper was to quantify the strategic value that comes along a) with the modular design; a design that offers managerial flexibility adapting a step-by-step investment strategy to the actual market demand and b) with the option to switch between two modes of operation, namely electricity and hydrogen production. We will demonstrate that the effect of uncertain electricity prices can be dampened down with a modular HTR design. By using a real option approach, we view the project as a series of compound options — each option depending on the exercise of those that preceded it. At each end of the design phase, the viability will be reviewed conditional on the operating spread at each time step. We quantify the value of being able to wait with the investment into a next block until market conditions are favourable and to be able to abandon one block if market conditions are disapproving. To derive the intrinsic value of this multi block HTR design, it will be compared with a reference investment of a full commitment light water reactor without any managerial flexibility. In another case, we raise the question to what extent product output diversification is a suitable strategy to cope with long term market uncertainty in electricity price. What is the value of a multi-potent technology that is able to produce output for energy markets others than the electricity market? To investigate this, we concentrate on The Netherlands, a country with an intense industrial demand in electricity and hydrogen.

Economics of camel control in central Australia

2010 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam G. Drucker ◽  
Glenn P. Edwards ◽  
William K. Saalfeld
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Control Programme ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Strong Argument ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Central Australia

A cost-effectiveness analysis based on a bioeconomic model was carried out with regard to specific feral camel control strategies in central Australia. Two different aerial control strategies were modelled for the period 2009–20. Strategy 1 involved annual removals, whereas strategy 2 involved periodic removals only when a specific feral camel density was reached. The direct benefits to the pastoral industry of feral camel control were also modelled in terms of reduced grazing competition together with infrastructure damage. A single environmental service related to reducing greenhouse gas emissions was further considered. Although the present costs of control under the two strategies are considerable ($4.10–4.95 million over 12 years at a 5% discount rate), they are far outweighed by the present benefits to the livestock industry from reduced competition ($46.3 million), as well as to society as a whole through reduced greenhouse gas emissions ($32.1 million). Including reduced infrastructure damage, the net present value of control is $75.2 million under strategy 1 and $73.3 million under strategy 2 (over 12 years at a 5% discount rate), suggesting that a control strategy based on annual removals should be preferred over a strategy of periodic removals. Given the large positive net present value of control and the robustness of the overall findings, there would appear to be a strong argument for considering the implementation of a full-scale, long-term feral camel control programme in the near future.

OPTIMASI STRIPPING RATIO DENGAN METODE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW PADA PROJECT PLTU MULUT TAMBANG

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 128-133
Author(s):  
Yudi Arista Yulanda ◽  
M. Taufik Toha ◽  
Fahrurrozi Syarkowi
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow

Harga batubara acuan pada bulan Januari 2020 adalah 65.93 USD/ton turun jauh dari tahun 2018 dimana harga batubara acuan sempat mencapai 107.83 USD/ton pada bulan Agustus. Dalam upaya menaikkan ratio elektrifikasi dalam RUPTL PLN 2018-2027 PLTU Mulut Tambang mendapatkan porsi 11 persen dengan peningkatan jumlah pembangkit setiap tahun nya. Keberadaan Batubara sebagai sumber daya alam yang terbatas dan tidak dapat diperbaharui menuntut penerapan prinsip konservasi cadangan batubara untuk mengoptimalkan keuntungan dan cadangan dengan memilih Stripping Ratio yang optimum. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu untuk menentukan Stripping Ratio Optimum yang akan memberikan keuntungan terbaik menggunakan metode discounted cash flow sehingga batas penambangan optimum (Ultimate Pit Limit) juga dapat ditentukan. Optimasi ini dilakukan dengan men-generate data variasi Stripping Ratio yang menggambarkan pit limit dan cadangan dari masing-masing stripping ratio tersebut kemudian memasukkan konsiderasi ekonomi yang di discount rate untuk mendapat angka Net Present Value (NPV) sehingga bisa dianalisis dalam kurva optimasi. Hasil penelitian adalah Stripping Ratio optimum berdasarkan kurva optimasi dengan metode Konvensional NPV skenario Spot Price adalah 4.5 dengan total cadangan 7.5jt MT dan umur tambang 8 Tahun serta NPV 21,7 juta US$.

Using Outsourced Logistics Services (4pl)

2013 ◽  
pp. 360-375
Author(s):  
Vasileios Giotopoulos ◽  
Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis ◽  
Vasileios Moustakis
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Legal System ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Legal Environment ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Organizational Models ◽  
Logistics Outsourcing ◽  
Logistics Services ◽  
Logistics Enterprises

The objective of this chapter is the study of the economical and legal environment in which logistics enterprises operate in Greece. Firstly, there is a presentation of logistics outsourcing and the existing 3PL and 4PL organizational models as well as an analysis of the economical and legal system which influences the operation of logistics ventures in Greece and a presentation of the funding possibilities according to Greek law. An economical sustainability study is being conducted according to the Net Present Value method (NPV), and two types of ventures are studied: an asset based venture, and a non asset based venture. At the end of this chapter, there is a sensitivity analysis with respect to the discount rate that is used in the NPV (Net Present Value) method. The results of this analysis showed that a change of the discount rate has significant consequences on the economics of the project.

scholarly journals Kelayakan Finansial Fasilitas Parkir Pasar Aceh Berdasarkan Qanun Kota Banda Aceh

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahmat Djamaluddin ◽  
Edi Mawardi
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Cost Ratio ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Benefit Cost Ratio ◽  
Financial Feasibility ◽  
Benefit Cost ◽  
Parking Facilities ◽  
Banda Aceh

Off Street Parking building  in Pasar Aceh Baru is one of the parking facilities available in the area. Withthe increase of visitors to Pasar Aceh Baru, the need for parking space is also increasing. In this case the authors want to analyze the feasibility in terms of finance based on parking rates using Qanun Banda Aceh City No. 4 year 2012. The objective of the study is to calculate the number of parking vehicles, vehicles accumulation and to see the financial feasibility level of the parking facilities based on Laws Banda Aceh city regulated by Qanun No. 4 year 2012, so the results obtained when the parking facility has a period of turnover point of payback (Payback Period). This study uses 3 methods, namely NPV, BCR and IRR and discount rate of 10%, 12%, 15% and 18%. From the data processing using 3 methods, resulted in Net Present Value (NPV) largest value is Rp. -3,853,539,000, - at 10% discount rate while the Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) is 0,809 at discount rate 10% and IRR value equal to -1,149%. This proves that with parking rates using Qanun Banda Aceh City No. 4 year 2012 the parking facilities are not feasible to be built financially. Keywords: Financial Feasibility, Parking Rates, NPV, BCR, and IRR

scholarly journals Pengembangan Model Fuzzy Project Evaluation Untuk Analisis Kelayakan Finansial Pendirian Pabrik Baru

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Yuniar Farida
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Fuzzy Number ◽  
Average Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Project Evaluation ◽  
Triangular Fuzzy Number ◽  
Present Value

Untuk rencana pembangunan suatu pabrik baru, aspek finansial merupakan aspek terpenting dalam evaluasi kelayakannya. Dikatakan demikian, karena sekalipun aspek lain tergolong layak, jika studi aspek finansial memberikan hasil yang tidak layak, maka usulan proyek akan ditolak karena tidak memberikan manfaat ekonomi. Dalam penelitian ini Net Present Value (NPV) digunakan sebagai metode evaluasi kelayakan finansial rencana pendirian pabrik PT. X. Dalam perhitungan NPV, salah satu faktor yang krusial adalah tarif diskonto atau discount rate yang berlaku pada masa pengembalian investasi suatu proyek. NPV suatu proyek harus dihitung dengan discount rate konstan sampai masa pengembalian investasi, meski pada kenyataannya faktor – faktor yang mempengaruhi discount rate setiap tahun tidak selalu sama, akibatnya nilai NPV menjadi samar (fuzzy). Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut, maka dilakukan suatu pemodelan untuk mendekati nilai discount rate yang tepat. Dalam penelitian ini discount rate dihitung berdasarkan nilai WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) yang merupakan gabungan dari struktur modal, yaitu hutang dan ekuitas. Untuk memperoleh nilai WACC yang tepat, dilakukan pendekatan dengan menggunakan Triangular Fuzzy Number (TFN). Adapun penggunaan fuzzy dilakukan karena WACC mengandung unsur ketidakpastian yang tinggi, yang bisa membuat perhitungan WACC dengan metode konvensional menjadi samar/kabur. Dari hasil perhitungan menggunakan TFN, diperoleh nilai WACC sebesar 13.64 % dan menghasilkan NPV sebesar 6,430,464,000,000. Sedangkan nilai WACC deterministik yang dihasilkan evaluator sebesar 13.72 % dan menghasilkan NPV sebesar 6,358,310,540,000

scholarly journals The hydro-seeding and concrete anchors as a method for preventing damage to district heating network by local landslides

2019 ◽  
Vol 140 ◽  
pp. 05014
Author(s):  
Stanislav Chicherin ◽  
Lyazzat Junussova ◽  
Timur Junussov
Keyword(s):  
Life Span ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
District Heating ◽  
First Year ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Capital Costs ◽  
Model Combining ◽  
Project Life

To prevent rain from eroding the sides of the trench we have developed a method of spraying them with hydro-seed. The homemade solution contains water, soil, mulch and a special blend of local grass seed. The mixture containing the blend of seeds enhances the soil to give it some strength and minimize the erosion. Another option is using concrete anchors instead of steel ones, which are supposed to increase the rigidity of a district heating (DH) network. The paper further visualizes the process with the materials required for each step. We constructed the equation in order to estimate net present value depending on the capital costs of the construction, the time of the cash flow, and the discount rate. In case of concrete anchors, the NPV of the project is negative. However, in case of hydro-seeding, the income provided by avoiding penalties becomes bigger than initial costs in the very first year of the project life span. From the comparison of two NPV profiles, the model combining the concrete anchors and the hydro-seeding can save up to 20% of investments compared to the conventional DH line. Results show that although then capital costs are increased by up to 24%, investment payback for DH network can be reduced to 12 years while life span can be increased by up to 30 years.

scholarly journals Financial Analysis of Automated Container Terminal Capacity from the Perspective of Terminal Operating Company

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 954
Author(s):  
Nam Kyu Park ◽  
Yohan An
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Container Terminal ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Operating Profit ◽  
Capacity Model ◽  
Operating Company

This study examines the financially feasibility of the proper terminal capacity by each berth size of the automatic container terminal (ACT) from the perspective of Terminal Operating Company (TOC). ACT is a highly productive and eco-friendly port facility, but it requires a lot of capital investment. Thus, the investment of ACT should consider the TOC’s operating profit preservation to determine the proper terminal capacity. In this study, we attempt to conduct financial analysis using the net present value method and estimate breakeven handling volume of five berth sizes (nine, five, four, three, and two berths). In particular, as the aim of this study is to propose a capacity model of ACT, the model must be able to adapt to a variety of situations reflecting the number of berths and financial discount rate. The case study focused on the new port of Busan, introducing ACT. As a result, the breakeven terminal capacity changes from 560,421 TEU of the 9-berth model to 633,102 TEU of the 2-berth model, applying a 4.5% standard discount ratio. In a sensitivity test considering the change in discount rate and the size of the berth at the same time, the net present value (NPV) has a positive value at the level of at least 550,000 TEU (nine berths and 3.5% discount rate) and up to 650,000 TEU (two berths and 5.5% discount rate). The method of optimizing financial efficiency by analyzing the appropriate loading capacity will be an important support tool in decision-making by providing the analysis results and reasonable information obtained during the analysis process to the TOC, the main stakeholder in the adoption of ACT.

The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Evaluation of Forestry Investments: A Note

1988 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 256-258
Author(s):  
F. Christian Zinkhan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Term Structures ◽  
Forestry Investments ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The forestry literature generally assumes that the appropriate discount rate to be used in the estimation of a given investment's net present value is the same over its lifetime. However, the values of many alternative investments such as stocks and bonds often reflect term structures that are not flat. That is, the relationship between the number of years to maturity of an investment and that investment's required rate of return is often a significant consideration. This note suggests a procedure for incorporating a consideration of the term structure of interest rates into the determination of a discount rate specific to each annual net cash flow associated with a given long-term forestry investment. Using an actual 10-year case analysis, it was found that the valuation of a timberland tract varied by approximately 11%, depending upon whether or not the term structure of interest rates was recognized. South. J. Appl. For. 12(4):256-258.

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