An accurate mathematical model predicting number of dengue cases in tropics

Dengue fever is a systemic viral infection of epidemic proportions in tropical countries. The incidence of dengue fever is ever increasing and has doubled over the last few decades. Estimated 50million new cases are detected each year and close to 10000 deaths occur each year. Epidemics are unpredictable and unprecedented. When epidemics occur, health services are over whelmed leading to overcrowding of hospitals. At present there is no evidence that dengue epidemics can be predicted. Since the breeding of the dengue mosquito is directly influenced by environmental factors, it is plausible that epidemics could be predicted using weather data. We hypothesized that there is a mathematical relationship between incidence of dengue fever and environmental factors and if such relationship exists, new cases of dengue fever in the succeeding months can be predicted using weather data of the current month. We developed a mathematical model using machine learning technique. We used Island wide dengue epidemiology data, weather data and population density in developing the model. We used incidence of dengue fever, average rain fall, humidity, wind speed, temperature and population density of each district in the model. We found that the model is able to predict the incidence of dengue fever of a given month in a given district with precision (RMSE between 18- 35.3). Further, using weather data of a given month, the number of cases of dengue in succeeding months too can be predicted with precision (RMSE 10.4—30). Health authorities can use existing weather data in predicting epidemics in the immediate future and therefore measures to prevent new cases can be taken and more importantly the authorities can prepare local authorities for outbreaks.

Documentation of the Major Insect Pest of Cabbage and Their Associated Natural Enemies in Bihar, North-eastern India

The present investigation was conducted at farm of ICAR-Research Centre for Eastern Region (ICAR-RCER), Patna, Bihar during 2020-21.Geographically, ICAR-RCER, Patna is located at 25o35`30`` N latitude, 85o05`03`` E longitude, at an altitude 52m above mean sea level. The climate of the region is warm and temperate which is characterized by extremes of the temperature both during summer and winter. During summer, temperature may rise as high as 390C and in winter it may fall as low as 2-30C.The total annual average rain fall is 1130mm. This region provides a safe long growing season for most of the crops. Diamond back moth was found to be the most serious insect pest of cabbage. The infestation appeared during first week of January (SMW1) at vegetative stage and remained present up to the harvesting of the crop i.e. 11th SMW. Among the natural enemies, two species of coccinellids (Coccinella septempunctata, C. transversalis), one larval parasitoid (Cotesia plutellae) and one Syrphid fly (Toxomerus geminatus) and one unidentified spider was observed during crop period.

SCIENTIFIC RATIONALE FOR THE USE OF LOW-INTENSITY SPRINKLING SYSTEMS IN MOUNTAIN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE IN AZERBAIJAN

The results of the study revealed that the mismatch intensity rain rate of water absorption into the soil for-mation of a surface relief and soil erosion, uneven and zakir aliyev soaking imperfection open irrigation system at a superficial irrigation, the need for different irrigation methods in the growing and not growing periods, low coeffi-cient land utilization, high cost of irrigation and other features are, to a certain extent in conflict with the require-ments of watering cultivated with techniques for / of crops in an area at the deep groundwater. Experience has shown that by increasing the grip width it would be possible to reduce the intensity of rain while maintaining labor productivity, which is achieved by studies using the proposed newly developed spouts installed on the ISAD sprin-kler, which provides a relatively low rain intensity, which is explained by the desire to create a microclimate for plants with low water consumption with limited geometry of the irrigated areaThe experimental work that we carried out here at the accepted research facilities in Terter, Zagatala and Ganja on the irrigation of soya, sugar beet, corn and tobacco allows us to give an approximate average rain intensity (mm/min) at an irrigation rate of 300-500 m3/ha, depending on the soil: Sandy -0.3 0.4, light loamy -0.2, 0.3

Pengaruh Curah Hujan dan Debit Air Terhadap Produktivitas Energi Listrik yang Dihasilkan Pada Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air (Studi Kasus: Sub Unit PLTA Kracak, Kabupaten Bogor Jawa Barat)

This research is aimed to understand the effects of rain fall and discharge rate towards hydro electric power plant productivity (case study at Kracak Sub Unit HPP, Bogor Regency Jawa Barat). Multiple regression tecnique analysis is used as research method with quantitative approach for describing the effects of rain fall and discharge rate towards hydro electric energy productivity. Based on Sub Unit PLTA Kracak during a highest down pour in June 2018 has gained electrical power about 173,583 kWh for 15,84 mm rain fall and the lowest rain fall in July 2018 is 0,86 mm only obtain 49,772 kWh electrical power with the average rain fall record in three stations is 8,9592 mm. Mean while, for the highest river discharge rate happened in February is 10,08 m3/detik which produce 198,296 kWh electrical power and the lowest in June that only gained 3,53 m3/detik which produce 49,772 kWh electrical power with the average of river discharge rate in 2018 is only 7,9858 m3/detik. The average of electrical power it self is only 156,0105 kWh for 8,9592 mm of rainfall and 7,9858 m3/detik river discharge rate record in 2018. The conclusion oh this research is the discharge rate in headwaters area is affected by rainfall intensity, but not necessarily affected to hydro electric energy productivity. ABSTRAK Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh curah hujan dan debit air terhadap produktivitas energi listrik yang dihasilkan pada pembangkit listrik tenaga air (Studi Kasus: Sub Unit PLTA Kracak, Kabupaten Bogor Jawa Barat). Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode deskriptif dengan pendekatan kuantitatif teknik analisis data regresi berganda untuk mendiskripsikan data penelitian curah hujan dan debit air terhadap produktivitas energi listrik yang dihasilkan. Berdasarkan data hasil penelitian yang diperoleh di Sub Unit PLTA Kracak data curah hujan tertinggi pada tahun 2018 di Bulan Juni sebesar 15,84 mm dapat menghasilkan energi listrik sebesar 173,593 kWh dan terendah di Bulan Juli sebesar 0,86 mm dapat menghasilkan energi listrik sebesar 49,772 kWh dengan rata-rata pertahun 2018 yaitu sebesar 8,9592 mm di tiga stasiun. Sedangkan data debit air pada tahun 2018 tertinggi di Bulan Februari sebesar 10,08 m3/detik dapat menghasilkan energi listrik sebesar 198,296 kWh dan terendah di Bulan Juli sebesar 3,53 m3/detik dapat menghasilkan energi listrik sebesar 49,772 dengan rata-rata pertahun 2018 debit air sebesar 7,9858 m3/detik. Dengan rata-rata curah hujan 8,9592 mm dan debit air 7,9858 m3/detik dapat menghasilkan energi listrik rata-rata pertahun 2018 sebesar 156,0105 kWh selama tahun 2018. Dapat disimpulkan curah hujan tidak berpengaruh langsung terhadap produktivitas energi listrik yang dihasilkan sedangkan debit air berpengaruh terhadap produktivitas energi listrik.

An Experimental Study on the Effects of Atomized Rain of a High Velocity Waterjet to Downstream Area in Low Ambient Pressure Environment

A better understanding of the atomized rain characteristics in low ambient pressure areas is beneficial in reducing the jeopardizing effect of flood discharge atomization on high-altitude hydropower stations. A random splash experiment is designed with two measurement planes to investigate the effects of low ambient pressure on downstream atomized rain under the complicated conditions of low ambient pressure (within 0.60P0~1.00P0) and high waterjet velocity (at a magnitude of 10 m/s). The results demonstrate that the atomized rain (rain intensity ≥ 2 mm/h) downstream, characterized by two-dimensional distribution, can be enhanced by decreasing the ambient pressure and by increasing the inflow discharge. When the ambient pressure decreases at the same inflow discharge, both the distance of the rain intensity lines (40 mm/h, 10 mm/h, 2 mm/h) in the horizontal plane from the constricted nozzle outlet and the average rain amount in the inclined plane within the atomized source ratio of ((0~30) × 10−3)% appear as “linear” growth. With the ambient pressure decreasing by 0.10P0, the range of those characteristic rain intensity lines is expanded by 0.68%~1.37%, and the average rain amount is enlarged by 11.06%~20.48%. When keeping the low ambient pressure unchanged, both the point average rain intensity reduction along the releasing centerline and the surface average rain amount growth with increased inflow discharge all follow an exponential function. The aeration reduction in the waterjet boundary and the resistance reduction in atomized water-droplets are contributing factors for the enhancement effect of low ambient pressure. This study can enable the establishment of a foundation to further predict flood discharge atomization in a high-altitude environment.

ANALISIS MODEL ESTIMASI NET PRESENT VALUE PADA PENJADWALAN PENAMBANGAN TERBUKA BATUBARA PIT 11 PT ARUTMIN INDONESIA SITE KINTAP KABUPATEN TANAH LAUT

PT Arutmin Indonesia merupakan salah satu perusahaan yang bergerak dibidang industri pertambangan. PT Arutmin Indonesia memiliki kontrak PKP2B dengan umur kontrak yang berakhir pada 2 November 2020. Penelitian dilakukan disalah satu area PKP2B PT Arutmin yaitu pit 11 di site Kintap. Pada pit 11 akan dilakukan eksploitasi dengan melakukan penjadwalan penambangan yang dipertimbangkan berdasarkan analisis kriteria ekonomi. Analisis kriteria ekonomi pada pit 11 digunakan analisis kriteria net present value (NPV).Pada penelitian proyek penambangan pit 11 terdiri atas dua general description yaitu penjadwalan penambangan dan analisis net present value. Penjadwalan penambangan dikerjakan dengan bantuan aplikasi perangkat lunak Xpac 7.14, dimana penjadwalan disimulasikan menjadi 2 simulasi berdasarkan penempatan fleet untuk menentukan penjadwalan penambangan berdasarkan target produksi. 2 simulasi penjadwalan akan diestimasikan berdasarkan forecast rain delay menjadi 3 skenario yaitu skenario 1 pada saat minimum rain delay, skenario 2 pada saat average rain delay, dan skenario 3 maximum rain delay. Dari masing-masing simulasi penjadwalan penambangan akan didapat target produksi batubara, volme overburden dan penentuajn jarak pengangkutan yang akan dianalisis tigkat keekonomisannya berdasarkan kriteria net present value dengan pertimbangan biaya (cost) penambangan dan pendapatan (revenue) dengan komoditas harga batubara (coal price) dan discount rate yang berlaku di PT Arutmin Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan SImulasi 1, penambangan akan berlangsung selama 10 bulan (skenario 1 dan 2 ), dan 11 bulan (skenario 3). Adapun bila menggunakan Simulasi 2, penambangan akan berlangsung selama 12 bulan (skenario 1), 14 bulan (skenario 2) dan 15 bulan (skenario 3Hasil Nilai NPV dari masing-masing simulasi 1 dan 2 didapat untuk skenario 1 nilai NPV yaitu $ 29,608,151.48 skenario 2 besar NPV yaitu $29,589,419.87 , dan skenario 3 besar NPV yaitu $ 29,552,139.84. Sedangkan hasil dari simulasi 2 untuk skenario 1 didapat besar NPV yaitu $ 29,552,139.30 , skenario 2 besar NPV yaitu $ 29,271,760.24 dan skenario 3 besar NPV yaitu $ 29,150,450.08. Berdasarkan hasil perbandingan, nilai NPV terbesar akan didapatkan bila penjadwalan penambangan dilaksanakan dengan Simulasi 1 yaitu penjadwalan produksi dilakukan dengan menempatkan 2 fleet di pit 11A kemudian dilanjutkan 2 fleet di Pit 11BKata-kata kunci: Fleet, Forecast Rain Delay, Cost, Revenue, Coal Price, Discount Rate, Net Present Value

The importance of climate scenarios in setting the productivity indexes in the Pampa Arenosa sub-region of the province of Buenos Aires, Argentina

Starting in the 1970's, the Pampa Arenosa sub-region experienced an increasing water regime that generated an increased area for dryland farming. With increasing agricultural activity, examining the land is an essential strategic tool for its planning. The objective of this work was to highlight the importance of considering several climate scenarios when setting the productivity index in the sector of longitudinal dunes in the Pampa Arenosa sub-region in the province of Buenos Aires, Argentina. The climate scenarios were set in relation to the shifts in average rain values, according to the Pettitt Test. The land were classified according to their productivity index. It was found that the productivity index of the land increased with the rain, reaching its highest value in the period right after the abrupt shift. Land of moderate productive capacity whose productivity index values are between 65 and 51 comprised the majority of the area of our study.

Assessment of the Potential Occurrence of Dry Period in the Long Term for Pahang State, Malaysia

The interference of climate circulation and continuous rising of surface temperature every year has caused the atmosphere composition change which gives serious impact to water resource management. Pahang is among of the affected states by El Nino that hit Malaysia in recent years which led to water depletion at several water plants. Based on the current situation, this study focuses on 1) simulate the average rain pattern using statistical downscaling; 2) identify the severity index and dry duration occurrence in the catchment area. Predicting potential changes in the climate events is important to evaluate the level of climate change in the critical region. Therefore, the integration of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) have been conducted to study the potential occurrence of the dry period due to climate change for year 2020s and year 2050s. The results reveal that the dry condition is high during the mid-year. The lowest SPI value is estimated to reach -2.2 which can be classified as extreme. The potential dry period is expected to increase 2.5% and 3.3% in 2020 and 2050, respectively.

Vertical Variation of Z-R Relationship at Hallasan Mountain during Typhoon Nakri in 2014

Hallasan Mountain is located at the center of Jeju Island, Korea. Even though the height of the mountain is just 1,950 m, the orographic effect is strong enough to cause heavy rainfall. In this study, a rainfall event, due to Typhoon Nakri in 2014, observed in Jeju Island was analyzed fully using the radar and rain gauge data. First, the Z-R relationship Z=ARb was derived for every 250 m interval from the sea level to the mountain top. The resulting Z-R relationships showed that the exponent b could be assumed as constant but that the parameter A showed a significant decreasing trend up to an altitude around 1,000 m before it increased again. The orographic effect was found to be most significant at this altitude of 1,000 m. Second, the derived Z-R relationships were applied to the corresponding altitude radar reflectivity data to generate the rain rate field over Jeju Island. This rain rate field was then used to derive the areal-average rain rate data. These data were found to be very similar to the rain gauge estimates but were significantly different from those derived from the application of the Marshall-Palmer equation to the 1.5 km CAPPI data, which is the data type that is generally used by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).

Análisis Del Comportamiento De Las Precipitaciones En Quevedo - Ecuador, Para La Planificación De Cultivos

The work was performed with the aim of knowing the rainfall of the city of Quevedo in Ecuador, to improve the calendars of short-cycle crops, since this information is commonly required by farmers in the area and agricultural professionals who work as technical advisers. Processing a series of recordings of rainfall of 35 years belonging to the Pichilingue Weather Station of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology located on the premises of the National Agricultural Research Institute, the methodology applied was focuses on the determination of statisticians as the average, Standard Deviation, Variance, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis coefficient; then based on the average are determined wet and dry periods the frequency and the intensity with which they occur. That also was detected in this town from 1980 to 2014 there were 10 dry periods and nine wet periods, which are presented with a frequency of 3,8 and 3,6 years respectively. Based on the results, the wet season is defined between the months of December to May and the dry season from June to November. The foil available average rain accumulated determined for the wet and dry periods has the following values: 953,3 mm, 2924,2 mm and an average of 2216,3 mm. Short-cycle crops of the area should be planted since the month of December to be exploited all the rain of the wet season.