scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Burden on Global Economy: A Paradigm Shift

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
K Taeen Zaman ◽  
Hiya Islam ◽  
Asir Newaz Khan ◽  
Dipita Saha Shweta ◽  
Ahsab Rahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Consequence ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Rapid Pace ◽  
The Moment

The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus obstructed the Chinese economy and has expanded to the rest of the world at a rapid pace affecting at least 215 countries, areas and territories. The advancement of the disease and its economic repercussions is profoundly ambiguous, making it challenging for policymakers to formulate suitable microeconomic and macroeconomic policy responses. The scenarios in this paper illustrate how an outbreak could significantly affect the global economy in the short run. It has been estimated that each additional month of crisis would cost from about 2.5-3% of the global GDP and that the GDP growth would take a blow, reaching about 3-6%, depending on the country. Scenarios also suggest that GDP can drop by more than 10% and even exceed 15% in some countries. Via addressing the economic consequence of COVID-19 in different industries and countries, the paper presents assessments of the likely global economic costs of COVID-19 and the GDP growth of different countries. Economies will be negatively affected because of the high number of jobs at risk. Countries highly dependent on foreign trade are more negatively affected. Given that disease and its economic influence are highly unpredictable in numerous aspects, the global economy at the moment is the most critically threatened in history.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Burden on Global Economy: A Paradigm Shift

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
K Taeen Zaman ◽  
Hiya Islam ◽  
Asir Newaz Khan ◽  
Dipita Saha Shweta ◽  
Ahsab Rahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Consequence ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Rapid Pace ◽  
The Moment

The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus obstructed the Chinese economy and has expanded to the rest of the world at a rapid pace affecting at least 215 countries, areas and territories. The advancement of the disease and its economic repercussions is profoundly ambiguous, making it challenging for policymakers to formulate suitable microeconomic and macroeconomic policy responses. The scenarios in this paper illustrate how an outbreak could significantly affect the global economy in the short run. It has been estimated that each additional month of crisis would cost from about 2.5-3% of the global GDP and that the GDP growth would take a blow, reaching about 3-6%, depending on the country. Scenarios also suggest that GDP can drop by more than 10% and even exceed 15% in some countries. Via addressing the economic consequence of COVID-19 in different industries and countries, the paper presents assessments of the likely global economic costs of COVID-19 and the GDP growth of different countries. Economies will be negatively affected because of the high number of jobs at risk. Countries highly dependent on foreign trade are more negatively affected. Given that disease and its economic influence are highly unpredictable in numerous aspects, the global economy at the moment is the most critically threatened in history.

scholarly journals The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warwick McKibbin ◽  
Roshen Fernando
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Impacts

COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. This paper explores seven plausible scenarios of COVID-19 and the macroeconomic outcomes using a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The results demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short-run. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where healthcare systems are less developed and population density is high.

Macroeconomic uncertainty and “global” economic performance

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 426-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rexford Abaidoo ◽  
Florence Ellis
Keyword(s):  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Industrial Productivity

Purpose This study aims to explore potential paradigm shift in how “global economies” react to adverse macroeconomic conditions from key dominant economies such as the US and the Chinese economies. This is done by examining how economic activities within key economies around the world react to, or are impacted by, modeled adverse macroeconomic condition emanating from the Chinese and the US economies. Design/methodology/approach To verify potential paradigm shift in how external macroeconomic uncertainty impacts “global” industrial productivity and overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth within selected economies, this study opts for seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model. Adoption of this method has been influenced by the potential for correlated error terms between modeled adverse macroeconomic condition, industrial productivity and GDP growth variables being tested in a two-equation system. Findings Empirical results based on SUR analysis find no evidence of this potential paradigm shift within the time frame examined in the study. Estimated results suggest that notwithstanding the recent growth surge of the Chinese economy, macroeconomic happenings within the US economy still exert significantly more influence on key economies around the world. For instance, this study finds that macroeconomic uncertainty associated with the US economy significantly constrains both industrial productivity and overall GDP growth within most of the economies tested, whereas the same condition emanating from the Chinese economy seems to rather have a weak positive impact on the same macroeconomic variables. Research limitations/implications Research results are strictly limited to the focus time frame for this study; it is likely that expanded data involving more years beyond what was analyzed in this study could yield different results. Originality/value This study is an original research based on data from a reputable US federal institution.

The Chinese Economy and its impact on international trade (Study on the role of the port of Gwadar)

2020 ◽  
pp. 11-34
Author(s):  
أ.د.حميد شهاب احمد ◽  
م.م.زيدون سلمان محمد
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
Future Aspirations ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Important Region ◽  
Road Project ◽  
Trade Study

China's economic policy and its huge capabilities operate according to an expansion strategy, especially in investing foreign projects, as the past ten years have witnessed a major development in the elements of comprehensive strength, especially in the economic field, in 2014 China launched the largest initiative in the world, represented by the Belt and Road Project (BRI), which links nearly 70 countries, through this project, a very important region has emerged, which is (the port of cadres) in Pakistan, as China has headed towards that region and given the highest importance that is in its interest in the first place regardless of the great Pakistani interest, This is consistent with its future aspirations, especially after breaking the economic monopoly of the West, specifically (the United States), as it is a force in a state of decline and is no longer the dominant force economically. Which, in turn, led to the generation of an obsession with fear of this power and what it poses from a potential threat to the entire global economy, and what it seeks in the future to employ cadres not only to develop its economy and compete with other countries commercially , rather it takes another place aimed at increasing the Chinese military presence in the region, especially as China continues to work to develop everything available to its pioneering path in the international system in order to distinguish China as a major country and perhaps a superpower.

Civil Wars as Challenges to the Modern International System

Daedalus ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 146 (4) ◽  
pp. 112-125
Author(s):  
Hendrik Spruyt
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
International System ◽  
Self Determination ◽  
Legal Regime ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Reasonable Solution ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Lock In ◽  
External Intervention

The current international system is based on Westphalian principles in which authority is defined territorially. Within this territory, the state has sole jurisdiction. Adherence to these principles has contributed to the decline of interstate war. Conversely, applying these principles and correlated norms to states that gained their independence after 1945 has contributed to civil conflicts. These norms are opaque, as is the case with the principle of self-determination; or they lock in an unstable status quo, as with uti possidetis, the principle that borders inherited at the moment of independence should always be maintained; or they are inconsistently applied and often violated, as with the principle of noninterference. Consequently, they provide poor guidelines as to when, and on which grounds, external intervention in civil wars might be warranted. I argue that the degree to which the combatants challenge Westphalian principles should guide policy responses. Furthermore, the international legal regime should reconsider uti possidetis. In some instances, partition might be a reasonable solution to civil wars.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Current Account Deficits and Growth in Montenegro: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Özer ◽  
Jovana Žugić ◽  
Sonja Tomaš-Miskin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study, we investigate the relationship between current account deficits and growth in Montenegro by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to co-integration for the period from the third quarter of 2011 to the last quarter of 2016. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when growth is the dependent variable. The results also confirm a bidirectional long run and short run causal relationship between current account deficits and growth. The short run results mostly indicate a negative relationship between changes in the current account deficit GDP ratio and the GDP growth rate. This means that any increase of the value of independent variable (current account deficit GDP ratio) will result in decrease of the rate of GDP growth and vice versa. The long-run effect of the current account deficit to GDP ratio on GDP growth is positive. The constant (β0) is positive but also the (β1), meaning that with the increase of CAD GDP ratio of 1 measuring unit, the GDP growth rate would grow by 0,5459. This positive and tight correlation could be explained by overlapping structure of the constituents of CAD and the drivers of GDP growth (such as tourism, energy sector, agriculture etc.). The results offer new perspectives and insights for new policy aiming for sustainable economic growth of Montenegro.

scholarly journals China’s AI experience: industrial digitalization

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 536-546
Author(s):  
Marina S. Reshetnikova
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Global Innovation ◽  
Innovative Products ◽  
Fundamental Research ◽  
The Moment

The rapid acceleration of scientific and technological progress, which started at the beginning of the 21st century, has become a decisive factor in influencing the global economy. Who will lead the global innovation race? This problem is especially relevant in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). At the moment, the United States and China are the main participants in the battle for dominance in this area. The author assesses Chinas innovative potential in the field of AI and identifies its achievements in this area. Based on the statistics provided, Chinas AI leadership has reached a critical point. China is confidently leading the new fundamental research of artificial intelligence, forming its theoretical base and applied research and development, which will contribute to the creation of new high-tech innovative products and services. However, in terms of the number and quality of AI specialists (AI Talents) and the number of companies engaged in AI, China is still lagging behind its main rival, namely the United States. The author proved that, despite the obvious successes of China, the United States still has an equal lead in the global innovation race.

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