scholarly journals The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warwick McKibbin ◽  
Roshen Fernando
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Impacts

COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impacts are highly uncertain making formulation of appropriate macroeconomic policy responses challenging. This paper explores seven plausible scenarios of COVID-19 and the macroeconomic outcomes using a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The results demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short-run. Economic costs could be significantly avoided with greater investment in public health systems in all economies, particularly in economies where healthcare systems are less developed and population density is high.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Burden on Global Economy: A Paradigm Shift

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
K Taeen Zaman ◽  
Hiya Islam ◽  
Asir Newaz Khan ◽  
Dipita Saha Shweta ◽  
Ahsab Rahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Consequence ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Rapid Pace ◽  
The Moment

The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus obstructed the Chinese economy and has expanded to the rest of the world at a rapid pace affecting at least 215 countries, areas and territories. The advancement of the disease and its economic repercussions is profoundly ambiguous, making it challenging for policymakers to formulate suitable microeconomic and macroeconomic policy responses. The scenarios in this paper illustrate how an outbreak could significantly affect the global economy in the short run. It has been estimated that each additional month of crisis would cost from about 2.5-3% of the global GDP and that the GDP growth would take a blow, reaching about 3-6%, depending on the country. Scenarios also suggest that GDP can drop by more than 10% and even exceed 15% in some countries. Via addressing the economic consequence of COVID-19 in different industries and countries, the paper presents assessments of the likely global economic costs of COVID-19 and the GDP growth of different countries. Economies will be negatively affected because of the high number of jobs at risk. Countries highly dependent on foreign trade are more negatively affected. Given that disease and its economic influence are highly unpredictable in numerous aspects, the global economy at the moment is the most critically threatened in history.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Burden on Global Economy: A Paradigm Shift

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
K Taeen Zaman ◽  
Hiya Islam ◽  
Asir Newaz Khan ◽  
Dipita Saha Shweta ◽  
Ahsab Rahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Consequence ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Rapid Pace ◽  
The Moment

The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus obstructed the Chinese economy and has expanded to the rest of the world at a rapid pace affecting at least 215 countries, areas and territories. The advancement of the disease and its economic repercussions is profoundly ambiguous, making it challenging for policymakers to formulate suitable microeconomic and macroeconomic policy responses. The scenarios in this paper illustrate how an outbreak could significantly affect the global economy in the short run. It has been estimated that each additional month of crisis would cost from about 2.5-3% of the global GDP and that the GDP growth would take a blow, reaching about 3-6%, depending on the country. Scenarios also suggest that GDP can drop by more than 10% and even exceed 15% in some countries. Via addressing the economic consequence of COVID-19 in different industries and countries, the paper presents assessments of the likely global economic costs of COVID-19 and the GDP growth of different countries. Economies will be negatively affected because of the high number of jobs at risk. Countries highly dependent on foreign trade are more negatively affected. Given that disease and its economic influence are highly unpredictable in numerous aspects, the global economy at the moment is the most critically threatened in history.

scholarly journals Identifying and Explaining the Efficiency of the Public Health Systems in European Countries

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 357-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Asandului ◽  
Cristian Popescu ◽  
Ionuț Puiu Fătulescu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Public Healthcare ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Efficiency Frontier ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
European Healthcare

Abstract The purpose of this study was to identify the efficient European healthcare systems. The study differs from other similar researches in that it uses different variables in assessing the efficiency of the healthcare systems, and also in that it uses a two-stage approach in the analysis. In order to identify the efficient healthcare systems, we used a non-parametric method, Data Envelopment Analysis, which allows the evaluation of the countries against an efficiency frontier. Furthermore, we explain the efficiency by analysing several factors which influence the efficiency of the healthcare systems, using the censored regression analysis. The findings indicate that there are significant efficiency disparities both among the developed states and among the developing ones. Finally, we suggest several directions for the public policy, in order to increase the efficiency of the public healthcare systems in the European countries.

scholarly journals From Catastrophe to Catalyst: Can the World Bank make COVID-19 a turning point for building universal and fair public healthcare systems?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Seery ◽  
Anna Marriott ◽  
Katie Malouf Bous ◽  
Rebecca Shadwick
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Systems ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Public Healthcare ◽  
Financial Barriers ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
Universal Healthcare ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World

COVID-19 has exposed the widespread failure to invest in strong and universal public health systems, putting millions of lives at risk and dramatically widening health inequalities. Oxfam analysed the World Bank’s emergency health funding to 71 countries in response to the pandemic. While its response has been rapid and significant, Oxfam finds that the World Bank has missed vital opportunities to strengthen public health systems so they can tackle COVID-19 and deliver health for all in the future. The research outlined in this briefing finds that 89% of World Bank projects do not plan to support any action to remove financial barriers, including user fees, that exclude millions from life-saving care; and two-thirds lack any plans to increase the number of healthcare workers. An urgent course correction is needed to help countries effectively fight the pandemic and build fairer, more resilient universal healthcare systems.

scholarly journals Public Perception and Potential Acceptance of COVID-19 Vaccine in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-31
Author(s):  
Bibhabasu Das ◽  
◽  
Apurva Padhye ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Health Systems ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Public Perception ◽  
Human Life ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
Development Data ◽  
Socio Demographic Factors

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)virus, has led to a substantial loss of human life and the global economy, and presents anunprecedented collapse of the public health systems worldwide. The sped-up advancement of theCOVID-19 vaccine is an important development. Data from the early trials suggest that the vaccineis safe as well as effective. However, the acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine among the publicdepends on various socio-demographic factors. The primary aim of the study is to get a deeperunderstanding and analysis of the public's perception, information and sentiment towards theCOVID-19 vaccine in India.

scholarly journals Inclusive Finance, Environmental Regulation, and Public Health in China: Lessons for the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Liu ◽  
Suqin Guo
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Environmental Regulation ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Improvement Effect ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

The slow-down of the Chinese economy and the depression in the global economy during the COVID-19 show that governments should provide stimulus packages. These policies should be inclusive in terms of financial gains. Using the panel data of 30 regions in China from 2006 to 2016, this paper uses the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator to analyze the impact of inclusive finance on public health. The results show that inclusive finance has a significant positive effect on public health. The performance of the eastern region is significantly better than that of the central and western regions. When we consider the combined effect of environmental regulation, the improvement effect of inclusive finance on public health is still significant, and the coefficient increases in the eastern region. Similarly, there is also a significant improvement effect in the central and western regions. Our findings reveal that environmental regulation promotes the beneficial effect of inclusive finance. Therefore, it is important to improve the inclusive financial development mechanism and enhance environmental regulation intensity for solving public health issues. Lessons related to the COVID-19 pandemic are also discussed.

scholarly journals Rethinking approaches of science, technology, and innovation in healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic: the challenge of translating knowledge infrastructures to public needs

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renan Gonçalves Leonel da Silva ◽  
Roger Chammas ◽  
Hillegonda Maria Dutilh Novaes
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
Technology And Innovation ◽  
Science Technology ◽  
Health Initiatives ◽  
Governance Tools ◽  
Test Diagnostics ◽  
Science Technology And Innovation

AbstractThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak made it clear that despite the potential of science, technology, and innovation (ST&I) to positively impact healthcare systems worldwide, as shown by the rapid development of SARS-CoV-2 test diagnostics and new mRNA vaccines, healthcare stakeholders have faced significant challenges in responding to the crisis through well-integrated ST&I-oriented health initiatives and policies. Therefore, the pandemic has mobilized experts, industry, and governments to evaluate alternative trajectories to promote a more efficient dialogue between ST&I and public health. This article presents a critical thinking about the contemporary asymmetries in the technical and political infrastructures available for particular approaches in ST&I in health, such as precision medicine, and for public health systems worldwide, uncovering a persistent gap in the translation of knowledge and technologies to adequately coordinated responses to the pandemic. We stimulate the understanding of this process as a matter of translation between platforms of knowledge and policy rationales shaped by different institutionalized frames of organizational practices and agendas. We draw attention to the need to strengthen governance tools for the promotion of ST&I as a strategic component of the post-pandemic agenda in public health, to prepare societies to respond efficiently to future emergencies.

The Chinese Economy and its impact on international trade (Study on the role of the port of Gwadar)

2020 ◽  
pp. 11-34
Author(s):  
أ.د.حميد شهاب احمد ◽  
م.م.زيدون سلمان محمد
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
International System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
Future Aspirations ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Important Region ◽  
Road Project ◽  
Trade Study

China's economic policy and its huge capabilities operate according to an expansion strategy, especially in investing foreign projects, as the past ten years have witnessed a major development in the elements of comprehensive strength, especially in the economic field, in 2014 China launched the largest initiative in the world, represented by the Belt and Road Project (BRI), which links nearly 70 countries, through this project, a very important region has emerged, which is (the port of cadres) in Pakistan, as China has headed towards that region and given the highest importance that is in its interest in the first place regardless of the great Pakistani interest, This is consistent with its future aspirations, especially after breaking the economic monopoly of the West, specifically (the United States), as it is a force in a state of decline and is no longer the dominant force economically. Which, in turn, led to the generation of an obsession with fear of this power and what it poses from a potential threat to the entire global economy, and what it seeks in the future to employ cadres not only to develop its economy and compete with other countries commercially , rather it takes another place aimed at increasing the Chinese military presence in the region, especially as China continues to work to develop everything available to its pioneering path in the international system in order to distinguish China as a major country and perhaps a superpower.

Can increases in Twitter posts predict increases in cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the United States? Evidence that social media can inform epidemic surveillance. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruoyan Sun ◽  
Henna Budhwani
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Education Attainment ◽  
Public Health Systems ◽  
Per Capita

BACKGROUND Though public health systems are responding rapidly to the COVID-19 pandemic, outcomes from publicly available, crowd-sourced big data may assist in helping to identify hot spots, prioritize equipment allocation and staffing, while also informing health policy related to “shelter in place” and social distancing recommendations. OBJECTIVE To assess if the rising state-level prevalence of COVID-19 related posts on Twitter (tweets) is predictive of state-level cumulative COVID-19 incidence after controlling for socio-economic characteristics. METHODS We identified extracted COVID-19 related tweets from January 21st to March 7th (2020) across all 50 states (N = 7,427,057). Tweets were combined with state-level characteristics and confirmed COVID-19 cases to determine the association between public commentary and cumulative incidence. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 cases varied significantly across states. Ratio of tweet increase (p=0.03), number of physicians per 1,000 population (p=0.01), education attainment (p=0.006), income per capita (p = 0.002), and percentage of adult population (p=0.003) were positively associated with cumulative incidence. Ratio of tweet increase was significantly associated with the logarithmic of cumulative incidence (p=0.06) with a coefficient of 0.26. CONCLUSIONS An increase in the prevalence of state-level tweets was predictive of an increase in COVID-19 diagnoses, providing evidence that Twitter can be a valuable surveillance tool for public health.

scholarly journals An analysis of COVID-19 clusters in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pooja Sengupta ◽  
Bhaswati Ganguli ◽  
Sugata SenRoy ◽  
Aditya Chatterjee
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Homogeneous Groups

Abstract Background In this study we cluster the districts of India in terms of the spread of COVID-19 and related variables such as population density and the number of specialty hospitals. Simulation using a compartment model is used to provide insight into differences in response to public health interventions. Two case studies of interest from Nizamuddin and Dharavi provide contrasting pictures of the success in curbing spread. Methods A cluster analysis of the worst affected districts in India provides insight about the similarities between them. The effects of public health interventions in flattening the curve in their respective states is studied using the individual contact SEIQHRF model, a stochastic individual compartment model which simulates disease prevalence in the susceptible, infected, recovered and fatal compartments. Results The clustering of hotspot districts provide homogeneous groups that can be discriminated in terms of number of cases and related covariates. The cluster analysis reveal that the distribution of number of COVID-19 hospitals in the districts does not correlate with the distribution of confirmed COVID-19 cases. From the SEIQHRF model for Nizamuddin we observe in the second phase the number of infected individuals had seen a multitudinous increase in the states where Nizamuddin attendees returned, increasing the risk of the disease spread. However, the simulations reveal that implementing administrative interventions, flatten the curve. In Dharavi, through tracing, tracking, testing and treating, massive breakout of COVID-19 was brought under control. Conclusions The cluster analysis performed on the districts reveal homogeneous groups of districts that can be ranked based on the burden placed on the healthcare system in terms of number of confirmed cases, population density and number of hospitals dedicated to COVID-19 treatment. The study rounds up with two important case studies on Nizamuddin basti and Dharavi to illustrate the growth curve of COVID-19 in two very densely populated regions in India. In the case of Nizamuddin, the study showed that there was a manifold increase in the risk of infection. In contrast it is seen that there was a rapid decline in the number of cases in Dharavi within a span of about one month.

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