scholarly journals The Stability of the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index to Economic Shocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 138
Author(s):  
Faizul Mubarok ◽  
Mohammad Nur Rianto Al Arif ◽  
Muhammad Arief Mufraini
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Stability

<p>The stock market has a strategic role in the development of a country's economy in the era of globalization, including the Islamic stock market. The rapid growth of the Islamic stock market, especially in developing countries, is a historical record in Indonesia's financial sector. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the return of the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) in the short and long term, how long shocks occur, and how much the contribution of these factors. This study uses monthly time series data from January 2012 to December 2019 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. VECM estimation results show the price of gold has a significant effect on the short and long term, while inflation has an impact on a long time. ISSI's return quickly reaches stability when it receives a shock from the exchange rate. The price of gold dominates the diversity of ISSI's performances. Stakeholders should consider several things that affect the ISSI return, pay attention to the economic climate, and anticipate quickly the shock that occurs.</p>

Welfare Use in Japan: Trends and Determinants

2007 ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Wataru Suzuki ◽  
Yanfei Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Welfare Use ◽  
The Impact

This article represents the first step in filling a large gap in knowledge concerning why Public Assistance (PA) use recently rose so fast in Japan. Specifically, we try to address this problem not only by performing a Blanchard and Quah decomposition on long-term monthly time series data (1960:04-2006:10), but also by estimating prefecturelevel longitudinal data. Two interesting findings emerge from the time series analysis. The first is that permanent shock imposes a continuously positive impact on the PA rate and is the main driving factor behind the recent increase in welfare use. The second finding is that the impact of temporary shock will last for a long time. The rate of the use of welfare is quite rigid because even if the PA rate rises due to temporary shocks, it takes about 8 or 9 years for it to regain its normal level. On the other hand, estimations of prefecture-level longitudinal data indicate that the Financial Capability Index (FCI) of the local government2 and minimum wage both impose negative effects on the PA rate. We also find that the rapid aging of Japan's population presents a permanent shock in practice, which makes it the most prominent contribution to surging welfare use.

The Effect of Covid-19, Rupiah Exchange Rate, and Inflation on the Indonesia Sharia Stock Index during the Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 313-336
Author(s):  
Achmad Agus Priyono ◽  
Ari Kartiko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Purpose of this study is to clarify the effect of the number of daily cases reported to have contracted the Covid-19 virus, the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar and inflation on the movement of the Indonesian Sharia stock index (ISSI) during the Pandemic Covid 19 in the short term and long term. Data analysis methods that used is analysis Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) using Eviews software 10. The data collected is daily time series data starting from March 2, 2020 to May 31, 2021 so that the number of samples collected obtained as many as 283 samples . The results of the study stated that the addition of the daily number of reported cases of contracting the Covid-19 virus has a negative impact on The Indonesian Sharia Stock Market Index (ISSI) during the Covid-19 pandemic, so that encourage the weakening of the Stock Index both in the long and long term short. Likewise, the weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar will caused the fall of the sharia index during the Covid 19 pandemic, both in the long term and long and short term. However, the study found no effect inflation on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) during the Covid19 pandemic, good long term and short term

scholarly journals The Stock Index Prediction Based on SVR Model with Bat Optimization Algorithm

Algorithms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 299
Author(s):  
Jianguo Zheng ◽  
Yilin Wang ◽  
Shihan Li ◽  
Hancong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Bat Algorithm ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Polynomial Kernel ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Ann Model

Accurate stock market prediction models can provide investors with convenient tools to make better data-based decisions and judgments. Moreover, retail investors and institutional investors could reduce their investment risk by selecting the optimal stock index with the help of these models. Predicting stock index price is one of the most effective tools for risk management and portfolio diversification. The continuous improvement of the accuracy of stock index price forecasts can promote the improvement and maturity of China’s capital market supervision and investment. It is also an important guarantee for China to further accelerate structural reforms and manufacturing transformation and upgrading. In response to this problem, this paper introduces the bat algorithm to optimize the three free parameters of the SVR machine learning model, constructs the BA-SVR hybrid model, and forecasts the closing prices of 18 stock indexes in Chinese stock market. The total sample comes from 15 January 2016 (the 10th trading day in 2016) to 31 December 2020. We select the last 20, 60, and 250 days of whole sample data as test sets for short-term, mid-term, and long-term forecast, respectively. The empirical results show that the BA-SVR model outperforms the polynomial kernel SVR model and sigmoid kernel SVR model without optimized initial parameters. In the robustness test part, we use the stationary time series data after the first-order difference of six selected characteristics to re-predict. Compared with the random forest model and ANN model, the prediction performance of the BA-SVR model is still significant. This paper also provides a new perspective on the methods of stock index forecasting and the application of bat algorithms in the financial field.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Ekonomi Global dan Domestik Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Dini Hariyanti ◽  
Soeharjoto Soekapdjo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Determine Effect

One of the biggest obstacles for countries economic growth compound is inflation. Government attempted to have lower and stable inflation.  Purpose of this research is to determine effect of the global and domestic economy to inflation in Indonesia. Using quarterly time series data from 2009-2018 derived from the Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics (SEKI), International Financial Statistics (IFS), and Investing. ECM regression model used for this research. For short term, interest rate and exchange rates have positive and significant effect to inflation. But money supply, GDP and oil price not significant, while in long term, interest rate and oil price have positive and significant to inflation, while money supply, GDP and exchange rates are not significant. Government policies are monitoring and anticipating global and domestic fluctuation, by  maintaining  the stability of interest rate and exchange rates, and also using environmentally friendly alternatives resources, in order to reducing dependence on oil. Besides that, government needs to undertake increasing of GDP to maintain people purchasing power and money supply distribution for productive sector which have biggest adding value by utilizing local resources.

scholarly journals PENGARUH HARGA PROPERTI RESIDENSIAL DAN KEBIJAKAN FINANCING TO VALUE TERHADAP STABILITAS PERBANKAN SYARIAH DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Fatoni
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Banking Stability ◽  
The Stability

This study aims to analyze the effect of residential property prices and Financing to Value policies on the stability of Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia. This study uses secondary data, namely time series data from all Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia during the period March 2010 to December 2020. The model used in this study is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of the study found that the Residential Property Price Index of small and medium types in the long term has an influence on the stability of Islamic Commercial Banks. However, each of them supports a different hypothesis, namely the collateral value hypothesis and the deviation hypothesis. Meanwhile, it was found that in the long and short term the Financing to Value policy had an influence on the stability of Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia. Keywords: Islamic Banking Stability, Property Price, Financing to Value

scholarly journals Characterizing scaling laws in gut microbial dynamics from time series data: caution is warranted

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu-Wen Wang ◽  
Yang-Yu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Gut Microbiota ◽  
Scaling Laws ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Temporal Variance ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Human And Mouse ◽  
Mouse Gut Microbiota

AbstractMany studies have revealed that both host and environmental factors can impact the gut microbial compositions, implying that the gut microbiota is considerably dynamic1–5. In their Article, Ji et al.6 performed comprehensive analysis of multiple high-resolution time series data of human and mouse gut microbiota. They found that both human and mouse gut microbiota dynamics can be characterized by several robust scaling laws describing short- and long-term changes in gut microbiota abundances, distributions of species residence and return times, and the correlation between the mean and the temporal variance of species abundances. They claimed that those scaling laws characterize both short- and long-term dynamics of gut microbiota. However, we are concerned that their interpretation is quite misleading, because all the scaling laws can be reproduced by the shuffled time series with completely randomized time stamps of the microbiome samples.

scholarly journals PENGARUH INFLASI DAN EKSPOR MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL DINAMIS REGRESSION

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
Isfihani Isfihani ◽  
Devi Andriyani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Term Analysis

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation and export of palm oil on the economic growth in Indonesia in the short and long term. The data used is the time series data from 1988 to 2016. The data analysis method used is the Auto Regressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) approach and the analysis tool with the help of Eviews 9. The results of the study show that all stationary variables at the level of first difference and have long-term cointegration. Partially, in the short term analysis shows that inflation has a negative and significant effect on the economic growth, and exports of palm oil have a positive and insignificant effect on the value of economic growth in Indonesia. In the long-term analysis of inflation and export of palm oil has a negative and significant effect on the economic growth in Indonesia. The results of the stability model test show that the model used is stable. The result of the determination coefficient R 2 is 87.40 percent

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN COUNTRY RISK TERHADAP INVESTASI PORTOFOLIO ASING DI INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 135
Author(s):  
Halifah Hadi ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Dewi Zaini Putri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Stability

The reseach aims to explain the effect of country risk and variabels macroeconomics to the foreign portofolio invesment in Indonesia in short term and long term. The analysis takes time series time series data from 2006 quarter 1 through 2016 quarter 4by using Error Correction Model (ECM). The source of data are Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, FX Sauder and World Bank. The result are in the short term the exchange rate and economic growth effect the shock that will influence the foreign portofolio invesment. In the long trem the inflation, interst rate, money supply and country risk influence on foreign portofolio invesment significanly. The suggestion in this research is, the goverment sould keep the stability balance of payment in Indonesia .Any change, the condition of  balance of payments effect appreciation and depreciation to Rupiah. To increase the economic growth in Indonesia, goverment could increasing the fiscal income and PMDN realization that will  increase the enterprises productivity.

scholarly journals Analysis of Integration of the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index with Developing Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 347
Author(s):  
Budiandru Budiandru ◽  
Deni Nuryadin ◽  
Muhammad Dika Pratama
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Impact

<p><em>Globalization is rapidly causing an integration of economic and financial systems worldwide, resulting in shocks to the Islamic stock index and reducing the benefits of diversification for investors. Therefore, this study analyzes the integration, influence, response, and contribution of shocks to each developing country’s Islamic stock index. Specifically, analyzing the effect of developing country sharia stock index shocks on Indonesia's sharia stock index. The study uses monthly time series data for 2011-2021 with samples from Indonesia, Turkey, Malaysia, Pakistan, Kuwait, and India using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. The results showed cointegration or a long-term relationship in the developing countries’ sharia stock index. The Malaysian Islamic Stock Index and the Indian Islamic Stock Index influence the Indonesian Islamic Stock Index. Furthermore, the Indonesian Islamic Stock Index stabilized the fastest in response to the Turkish Islamic Stock Index shocks. However, the Malaysian Islamic Stock Index shock contributes the most to the Indonesian Islamic Stock Index. Developing countries could improve the infrastructure of the Islamic stock index and policy reforms. This would minimize the impact of international stock index shocks and accelerate integration. Investors should consider the dominant economic strength, geographical factors, and trade relations in determining portfolio diversification in global economic conditions.</em></p><div class="notranslate" style="all: initial;"> </div>

scholarly journals PENERAPAN AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG DALAM MEMODELKAN PENGARUH INFLASI, PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, DAN FDI TERHADAP PENGANGGURAN DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 250
Author(s):  
Jumhur Jumhur
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study aims to examine the effect of inflation, economic growth, and foreign investment on unemployment in Indonesia. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis method to analyze the 1991-2018 time series data collected from the World Bank's World Development Indicators database. The results found that inflation has a negative and significant effect in the short term but not significant in the long term in Indonesia. Economic growth has a negative and significant effect on both short and             long-term unemployment in Indonesia, and foreign investment has a negative and significant effect on both short and long-term unemployment in Indonesia. Through the ARDL model, this research is able to prove that inflation, economic growth, foreign investment, and budgeting are proven to have long-term cointegration or move together in the long term. The four variables also have a dynamic short-term relationship that has a fairly high speed of adjustment towards equilibrium per year. Based on the results, policymakers, in this case the government must provide a conducive investment environment by eliminating the structural rigidity that exists in the economy to attract investment, both foreign and domestic investment, to encourage economic growth and create jobs in Indonesia.

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