scholarly journals Volatilitas Pasar Bawang Merah di Kabupaten Probolinggo Provinsi Jawa Timur

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Susanti Evie SULISTIOWATI ◽  
Ratya Anindita ◽  
Rosihan Asmara
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Asymmetrical Information ◽  
Market Management ◽  
Production Quantity

<strong>English</strong><br />Shallot is an agricultural strategic commodity. Understanding the market dynamics is necessary in formulating the market management policy. This study aims to analyze the volatility magnitude and <em>spillover</em> of shallot production, import, and consumption. This study was conducted in Probolinggo Regency, a major shallot production center, using monthly time series data of 2013-2019 period. Volatility was analyzed using the ARCH/GARCH method, spillover was analyzed using the EGARCH method. The results showed low volatility in production quantity and producers price. High volatility was found for quantity of consumption, import price and consumer price. Volatility spillover was found between producer’s price and production quantity as well as between consumer’s price and consumption quantity. There was no volatility spillover between producer’s price and consumer’s price or between quantity of production and consumption. The findings indicate the existence of asymmetrical information between producers’ market and consumers’ market. Therefore, market stabilization intervention should be focused in the consumers’ market. Price reference may be used as a benchmark in market intervention which includes market operations and import controls. Government should develop market information system to prevent asymmetrical information between the producers’ market and the consumers’ market.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Bawang merah adalah salah satu komoditas pertanian strategis. Pemahaman tentang dinamika pasar sangat penting dalam perumusan kebijakan pengelolaan pasar. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis besaran dan <em>spillover</em> volatilitas produksi, impor dan konsumsi bawang merah. Penelitian dilakukan di Kabupaten Probolinggo, salah satu sentra produksi bawang merah dengan menggunakan data bulanan deret waktu selama tahun 2013–2019. Untuk menganalisis volatilitas harga, produksi, dan konsumsi digunakan metode ARCH/GARCH, sedangkan untuk menganalisis volatilitas <em>spillover</em> digunakan metode EGARCH. Hasil analisis menujukkan volatilitas rendah untuk kuantitas produksi dan harga konsumen. Volatilitas tinggi ditemukan untuk kuantitas konsumsi, harga impor, dan harga konsumen<em>.</em> Volatilitas <em>spillover</em> terjadi antara harga produsen dan kuantitas produksi serta antara harga konsumen dan kuantitas konsumsi. Volatilitas <em>spillover</em> tidak terjadi antara harga produsen dan konsumen maupun antara kuantitas produksi dan konsumsi<em>. </em>Temuan ini<em> </em>mengindikasikan adanya asimetri informasi antara pasar produsen dan pasar konsumen. Karena itu, upaya stabilisasi harga bawang merah sebaiknya difokuskan di pasar konsumen. Kebijakan referensi harga dapat dijadikan sebagai acuan dalam melaksanakan intervensi pasar yang mencakup operasi pasar dan pengendalian impor. Pemerintah perlu pula membangun sistem informasi pasar untuk menghilangkan masalah asimetri informasi antara pasar produsen dan pasar konsumen.

scholarly journals A Comparison of World and Domestic Price Volatilities of Oilseeds: The Ethiopian Case

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 145-161
Author(s):  
Zerihun G. Kelbore
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
World Market ◽  
Domestic Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Price Risks ◽  
The Government

This study investigates and compares oilseeds price volatilities in the world market and the Ethiopian market. It uses a monthly time series data on oilseeds from February 1999 to December 2012; and analyses price volatilities using unconditional method (standard deviation) and conditional method (GARCH). The results indicate that oilseeds prices are more volatile, but not persistent, in the domestic market than the world market. The magnitude of the influence of the news about past volatility (innovations) is higher in the domestic market for Rapeseed and in the World market for Linseed. However, in both markets there is a problem of volatility clustering. The study also identified that due to the financial crisis the world market price volatilities surpassed and/or paralleled the higher domestic oilseeds price volatilities. The higher domestic oilseeds price volatility may imply that the price risks are high in the domestic oilseeds market. As extreme price volatility influences farmers` production decision, they may opt to other less risky, low-value and less profitable crop varieties. The implications of such retreat is that it may keep the farmers in the traditional farming and impede their transformation to the high value crops, and results in lower income hindering the poverty reduction efforts of the government. This is more important to consider today than was before, because measures undertaken to reduce poverty must bring sustainable change in the lives of the rural poor. For this reason, agricultural policies that enable farmers cope with price risks and enhance their productivity are crucial.

Oil and Methanol Price volatility

2013 ◽  
Vol 03 (08) ◽  
pp. 01-10
Author(s):  
Majid Delavari ◽  
Nadiya Gandali Ali khani ◽  
Esmaeil Naderi
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
The One

Crude oil as one of the main sources of energy is also the main source of income for members of OPEC. So, the volatility of crude oil price is one of the main economic variables in the world and analysis of the effect of its changes on key economic factors has been always considered as significant. The reason might be the high sensitivity of oil price to political, economic and cultural issues worldwide and consequently its volatility on the one hand, and the high influence of the volatile prices on macroeconomic variables. On the other hand, for different reasons such as oil price volatilities and income from oil export, economic planners and policy makers in Iran have been mainly focused on the promotion of non-oil exports especially during the last few decades. Therefore, methanol as one of the most commonly used petrochemical products has a high potential for production and export of non-oil products in Iran. For this reason, in the present study there was an attempt to examine the relationship between the prices of Iran’s crude oil and methanol using FIGARCH model and based on the weekly time series data related to the research variables. The results of the study showed that the long memory parameter is equal to 0.32 which is meaning the shocks caused by volatility of methanol market and crude oil price to the methanol price were lasting and meaningful and were revealed in the long term.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass Through in a Small Open Economy: A case study of West African Monetary Zone

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-290
Author(s):  
Rahman olanrewaju Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The  study investigated the magnitude of exchange rate pass through to import prices and domestic prices    (consumer price index) in WAMZ economy using quarterly time-series data between 2000 and 2010 with the aids of Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling technique supported with Johansen co-integration approach cross country analysis comprising of Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra-Leone. The study discovered that transmission of exchange rate to import prices is more when compared with consumer price in the zone while the contributions of exchange rate to import price are not less 13 percent at average in entire zone. Consumer price index was explained by exchange rate pass through with an average of 26 percent in the zone where the pass through to consumer price is less than two percent in Ghanaian economy. The Taylor (2000) hypothesis was observed in the study where Ghana and Nigeria are the outlier economies while Nigeria established a positive relationship between interest rate volatility and exchange rate pass through to import prices.

A Score Function-Based Method of Forecasting Using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Time Series

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (01) ◽  
pp. 91-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhishekh ◽  
Surendra Singh Gautam ◽  
S. R. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set ◽  
Score Function ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy

Intuitionistic fuzzy set plays a vital role in data analysis and decision-making problems. In this paper, we propose an enhanced and versatile method of forecasting using the concept of intuitionistic fuzzy time series (FTS) based on their score function. The developed method has been presented in the form of simple computational steps of forecasting instead of complicated max–min compositions operator of intuitionistic fuzzy sets to compute the relational matrix [Formula: see text]. Also, the proposed method is based on the maximum score and minimum accuracy function of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) to fuzzify the historical time series data. Further intuitionistic fuzzy logical relationship groups are defined and also provide a forecasted value and lies in an interval and is more appropriate rather than a crisp value. Furthermore, the proposed method has been implemented on the historical student enrollments data of University of Alabama and obtains the forecasted values which have been compared with the existing methods to show its superiority. The suitability of the proposed model has also been examined to forecast the movement of share market price of State Bank of India (SBI) at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The results of the comparison of MSE and MAPE indicate that the proposed method produces more accurate forecasting results.

scholarly journals PERMINTAAN JAGUNG SEBAGAI BAHAN BAKU INDUSTRI PAKAN TERNAK DI INDONESIA

Agro Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Diah Ariyanti ◽  
Any Suryantini ◽  
Masyhuri Masyhuri
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Price ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Feed Industry ◽  
Soybean Cake ◽  
Good For

The objectives of this research are to know the factors influencingdomestic maize demand, import maize demand, and total maize demand asraw material for feed industry in Indonesia, also their trend at five yearslater. The research use time series data. during 1976-2004. Simultaneousequations used to analyze domestic and import maize demand as rawmaterial for feed industry in Indonesia, while ordinary least square (OLS)used to analyze total maize demand as raw material for feed industry inIndonesia. The results show that domestic maize demand influenced negatively by maize domestic price and influenced positively by soybean cake import price, and trend of time. Cowpopulation, maize import price, and soybean cake import price influence import maize demand negatively, while fowl population and trend of time influence import maize demand positively. Total maize demand for feed industry in Indonesia positively influenced by soybean cake import price and cow population, and negatively influenced by maize domestic price. Soybean cake iscomplementary good for domestic maize and total maize, but becomesubstitution good for import maize. The trend of maize demand, includingdomestic and import maize demand, as raw material for feed industry inIndonesia increasing in the future.

Returns and volume

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-473
Author(s):  
Panos Fousekis
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causal Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Usa

Purpose The relationship between returns and trading volume is central in financial economics because it has both a theoretical interest and important practical implications with regard to the structure of financial markets and the level of speculation activity. The aim of this study is to provide new insights into the association between returns and trading volume by investigating their kernel (instantaneous) causality. The empirical analysis relies on time series data from 22 commodities futures markets (agricultural, energy and metals) in the USA. Design/methodology/approach Non-parametric (local linear) regressions are applied to daily data on returns and on trading activity; generalized correlation measures are computed and their differences are subjected to formal statistical testing. Findings The results suggest that raw returns are likely to kernel-cause volume and volume is likely to kernel-cause price volatility. The patterns of causal order are generally in line with what is stipulated by the relevant theory, they provide guidance for model specification and they appear to explain the empirical evidence on temporal (lag-lead) causality between the same pairs of variables obtained in earlier works. Originality/value The concept of kernel causality has very recently become a part of the toolkit for econometric/statistical analysis. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that relies on the notion of kernel (instantaneous) causality to provide new evidence on a relationship that is of keen interest to investors, professional economists and policymakers.

scholarly journals GLOBAL MARKET OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: CURRENT STATE AND PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT

2020 ◽  
pp. 27-39
Author(s):  
K. Bezugla ◽  
N. Kostyuchenko
Keyword(s):  
New Technologies ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Petroleum Production ◽  
The World

The paper is devoted to the peculiarities and perspectives of the global petroleum market development. The peculiarities of supply and demand formation at the global market of petroleum products are investigated in the article. The balance of supply and demand at the petroleum market is determined. The paper outlines the peculiarities of pricing for petroleum products. The dynamics of price changes on the global petroleum market in the period of 2010-2020 is studied. The conclusion was made that there is a price volatility on the global petroleum market. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of the world petroleum production by regions revealed that the total output of oil has increased due to the development of new technologies and due to the increased efficiency of petroleum production. The performed forecasting made it possible to conclude that petroleum price is expected to increase in the coming two periods. That will allow to establish a balance between supply and demand at the petroleum products’ market. Accordingly, the equalization of supply and demand for petroleum products is forecasted (even despite the crisis in the world). The econometric method of economic analysis was applied in the paper. The authors constructed an additive model for time series data to predict the dynamics of prices on the global market of petroleum products. The model was designed based on 16 observations in the period of October 2016 – July 2020.

scholarly journals Comparison of Indonesian Imports Forecasting by Limited Period Using SARIMA Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 90
Author(s):  
Harits Ar Rosyid ◽  
Mutyara Whening Aniendya ◽  
Heru Wahyu Herwanto ◽  
Peizhi Shi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Strategic Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Forecast Time ◽  
High Degree

The development of Indonesia's imports fluctuate over years. Inability to anticipate such rapid changes can cause economic slump due to inappropriate policy. For instance, recent years imports in rice led to the extermination of rice reserves. The reason is to maintain the market price of rice in Indonesia. To overcome these changes, forecasting the amount of imports should assist the Government in determining the optimum policy. This can be done by utilizing an algorithm to forecast time series data, in this case the amount of imports in the next few months with a high degree of accuracy. This study uses data obtained from the official website of the Indonesian Ministry of Trade. Then, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is applied to forecast the imports. This method is suitable for the interconnected dependent variables, as well as in forecasting seasonal data patterns. The results of the experiment showed that 6-period forecast is the most accurate results compared to forecasting by 16 and 24 periods. The research resulted in the best model, that is ARIMA (0, 1, 3)(0, 1, 1)12 produces forecasting with a MAPE value of 7.210 % or an accuracy rate of 92.790 %. By applying this imports forecast model, the government can have a forward strategic plans such as selectively imports products and carefully decide the amount of the incoming products to Indonesia. Hence, it could maintain or improve the economic condition where local businesses can grow confidently. 

scholarly journals Formulating and Estimating of Dynamic Nonlinear Model of Korea’s Bilateral Trade Balance

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 161
Author(s):  
Heonyong Jung
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Integration Test

This paper formulates and estimates the dynamic nonlinear trade model for Korea. We use monthly time series data for the period from 2000 to 2017. We employ EGARCH (1,1)-GED model which allows the positive and negative shocks to have asymmetric influences on volatility. The Johansen co-integration test is applied and finds the long run relationship among oil price, exchange rate and trade balance does exist. With respect to Indonesia as one of oil exporting countries, we find that an increase in oil prices leads to a declined trade balance as imports rise more than exports. Appreciation in IDR also leads to a declined trade balance as exports fall more than imports. For Korea as one of oil importing countries, an increase in oil prices leads to an improved trade balance as exports rise more than imports. Appreciation in KRW leads to a declined trade balance as exports fall more than imports. Oil price volatility reduces trade balance both in Indonesia and Korea. Oil price has negative effects on Indonesia’s trade balance and positive effects on Korea’s trade balance. Indonesian and Korean currency appreciation against US dollar have a negative impact on trade balance in Indonesia and Korea respectively. This information will contribute to Indonesian and Korean policy makers in making policies for their trade.

Understanding causes of volatility in onion prices in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pratap Birthal ◽  
Akanksha Negi ◽  
P.K. Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Market Power ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Series Data ◽  
High Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Food Commodities

Purpose Post-2008 global food crisis the prices of perishable high-value food commodities, such as vegetables and fruits, in India have risen faster and become more volatile compared to that of cereals. The welfare consequences of price shocks though are well understood yet the policy responses to manage these remain blurred because of a lack of clarity on their causes. Focusing on onions that comprise an important constituent of the Indian diet, the purpose of this paper is to explore causes of high price volatility. Design/methodology/approach Using high-frequency time series data on wholesale prices and arrivals of onions in major markets and other relevant variables, this paper analyzes causes of price volatility from several angles, that is production shocks, seasonality in production and market arrivals, internal trade, export policies and market power of intermediaries on the supply chain. Findings Despite markets being integrated and no significant climatic shocks to production there exists a strong element of uncertainty in market arrivals of onions, pointing toward the market power immediate downstream the production or alternatively anti-competition trade practices in major markets as a cause of high price volatility. The measures to manage price volatility, such as an increase in minimum export prices and bans on exports, are also not found to have an immediate cooling effect on prices. Research limitations/implications The agricultural policy should provide for a system of market intelligence to monitor anti-competitive trade practices along the supply chain, and to take proactive trade control measures to prevent frequent ups and downs in domestic prices. In addition, it should provide for incentives for developing efficient supply chains and for the cultivation of onions in the regions that have agronomic potential but it has remained underexploited due to one or the other constraint. Social implications Excessive volatility in food prices impacts farmers, consumers, processors, and traders and even political system. It may distort production and investment decisions of farmers and intermediaries on the value chains, leading to inefficient allocation of resources. The poor consumers may be forced to reduce food and non-food productive expenditures. If persists for a longer period, it may lead to political instability too. Originality/value Several studies have analyzed volatility in food prices and causes thereof. However, rarely any of these has examined volatility in prices of perishable high-value food commodities. This paper is an attempt toward filling this gap.

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