scholarly journals Climate Change and Variability in the Northeastern Himalayan Region of India

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 53-64
Author(s):  
Benjamin L Saitluanga ◽  
Gabriel Lalchhandama ◽  
P Rinawma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Rainfall Variation ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Seasonal Temperature Variation ◽  
Changing Trend ◽  
Change Trend ◽  
Slope Estimator

Mountainous regions are considered highly vulnerable to the affects of climate change. The extent of change and variability of climatic parameters is still unexamined in many remote mountainous areas.  This paper aims in understanding the change in pattern of rainfall and temperature for a period of 30 years in Mizoram. The analysis of time series changing trend in climatic variables is carried out by using Coefficient of Variation (CV), Mann-Kendall (M-K) and Sen’s Slope estimator. The analysis reveals that high variation is observed for both the variables in all the decadal, three decadal and seasonal change. The CV analysis shows that the highest seasonal rainfall variation occurs during winter and the highest seasonal temperature variation occurs during spring. Mann-Kendall test shows a significant change in rainfall with November showing the highest negative trend of rainfall. The temperature trend analysis in the study also reveals drastic change of temperature. An understanding of climatic change, trend and variability helps in predicting for better natural resources from the susceptibility of climate change.

Detecting future changes of short-term rainfall characteristics in the mountainous regions of Slovakia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Földes ◽  
Marija Mihaela Labat ◽  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
Miroslav Kandera
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Usa

<p>The study focuses on future changes in short-term rainfall characteristics. The analysis was performed for the mountainous regions in the northern part of Slovakia at 10 selected climatological stations. The rainfall data are simulated by Community Land Model Scenario which represents the future climate change.  The Community Land Model Scenario is a multidisciplinary project between scientists and several working groups mainly in the USA. The model includes impacts of changes in vegetation on the climate. The scenario has semi- pessimistic characteristics with a predicted global temperature increase by 2.9°C by the 2100. The analysis was performed for five rainfall durations (60, 120, 180, 240 and 1440 minutes) for the historical (1961-2020) and for the future (2071-2100) periods.  The detection of the future changes in short-term rainfall characteristics was made by several methods; for the seasonal changes the Burn´s vector was used, for the trend testing the data the Mann-Kendall test was applied. Results provide information how climate change impacts the short-term rainfall intensities in the mountainous regions of Slovakia.</p>

Trend analysis in reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in the context of climate change in Togo

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 848-864 ◽  
Author(s):  
Djaman Koffi ◽  
Ganyo Komla
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rainfed Agriculture ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Parametric Statistics ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
Key Parameter

Reference evapotranspiration is a key parameter in hydrological and meteorological studies and used to determine the actual water use rate for various crops. The objectives of this study were to explore trend in the grass-reference evapotranspiration (ETo) through years 1961–2011 and to identify trend in the aridity index as an indicator of change in climate in Togo. ETo was calculated using the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith method, and trends analyses were performed with non-parametric statistics proposed by Mann–Kendall and the Sen slope estimator. Results showed that annual ETo varied from 1,440 to 1,690 mm at Lomé, from 1,761 to 1,905 mm at Tabligbo, and from 1,839 to 1,990 mm at Sokode. The Mann–Kendall test revealed significant increase in annual ETo at Tabligbo (Z = 2.89) and Sokode (Z = 2.29). Annual ETo is much more stable at Lomé, with non-significant decrease. In Togo, according to the three study sites, the 1961–2011 period annual aridity index varied from 0.26 to 0.99 at Lomé, 0.38 to 0.98 at Tabligbo, and 0.45 to 1.08 at Sokode. The Mann–Kendall test revealed a declining trend in the ratio of precipitation/ETo which adversely implies an increasing severity of the aridity index at all the sites, prejudicial to rainfed agriculture practiced by about 90% of Togolese crop growers.

scholarly journals Development of an Interface in MATLAB for Trend Analysis of Hydro-Meteorological Data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Patil ◽  
A. Sarangi ◽  
D. K. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Rainfed Agriculture ◽  
Analysis Process ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Change Trend ◽  
Slope Estimator

This study presents an interface, ‘Climate Change Trend Analysis (CCTA)’, developed in MATLAB® environment to analyze the trends using non-parametric statistical methods, Mann-Kendall (MK) test and modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test with Sen’s slope estimator. The interface was used to determine trend in annual and seasonal (kharif) rainfall depths in Pune district acquired from 13 observatories. The developed interface automates the trend analysis process, which can further use for detecting variability and trends in the meteorological as well as other hydrological and agricultural parameters. The observed rainfall trends during monsoon would play a significant role for rainfed agriculture in Pune district.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Frost Regime in the Iberian Peninsula in the Context of Climate Change (1975–2018)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8491
Author(s):  
Abelardo García-Martín ◽  
Luis L. Paniagua ◽  
Francisco J. Moral ◽  
Francisco J. Rebollo ◽  
María A. Rozas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Absolute Minimum ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Frost Free Period

Climate change is having many effects in the agricultural sector, which are being studied worldwide. Undoubtedly, warmer winters and earlier springs produce changes in frost regimes and severity that will affect the sustainability of agricultural production in the area. The Mediterranean region and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) are among the areas where the greatest impact of climate change is expected. Daily data from 68 weather stations of the IP belonging to the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (1975–2018) were used to conduct a spatiotemporal study of the frost regime. The variables calculated include the probability of three frost types according to their severity, frost day, mean absolute minimum yearly temperature, first frost day, last frost day, and frost-free period. These variables were integrated into a geographic information system, which allowed the graphical visualization of their patterns using of geostatistical interpolation techniques (kriging). Changes in frost variables were investigated using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. A general reduction in the number of frosts per year is observed (values between −0.04- and −0.8-day frosts per year), as well as an increase in the mean absolute minimum temperature (values between 0.04 and 0.10 °C per year), with very high significant trends throughout the territory. The reduction in the number of frosts is more pronounced at a higher elevation. Frost dates vary greatly due to the orographic characteristics of the IP. The generalized trend is of a significant delay of the autumn frosts (values between 0.4 and 1.06 days/year), as well as early spring frosts (between −0.429 and −1.29 days/year), and as a consequence a longer frost-free period, all changes were much stronger than those found in other regions of the world. These effects of climate change must be mitigated by modifying species, varieties, and cultivation techniques to guarantee sustainable agriculture.

DISSEMINATION AND USE OF INFORMATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY: A CASE STUDY OF FARMERS IN MALUGA AND CHIBELA VILLAGES IN SEMI-ARID CENTRAL TANZANIA

Mousaion ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Elia ◽  
Stephen Mutula ◽  
Christine Stilwell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Diffusion Of Innovations ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Semi Arid

This study was part of broader PhD research which investigated how access to, and use of, information enhances adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in semi-arid Central Tanzania. The research was carried out in two villages using Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations theory and model to assess the dissemination of this information and its use by farmers in their adaptation of their farming practices to climate change and variability. This predominantly qualitative study employed a post-positivist paradigm. Some elements of a quantitative approach were also deployed in the data collection and analysis. The principal data collection methods were interviews and focus group discussions. The study population comprised farmers, agricultural extension officers and the Climate Change Adaptation in Africa project manager. Qualitative data were subjected to content analysis whereas quantitative data were analysed to generate mostly descriptive statistics using SPSS.  Key findings of the study show that farmers perceive a problem in the dissemination and use of climate information for agricultural development. They found access to agricultural inputs to be expensive, unreliable and untimely. To mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and variability on farming effectively, the study recommends the repackaging of current and accurate information on climate change and variability, farmer education and training, and collaboration between researchers, meteorology experts, and extension officers and farmers. Moreover, a clear policy framework for disseminating information related to climate change and variability is required.

scholarly journals Effect of Temperature on Sowing Dates of Wheat under Arid and Semi-Arid Climatic Regions and Impact Quantification of Climate Change through Mechanistic Modeling with Evidence from Field

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 927
Author(s):  
Jamshad Hussain ◽  
Tasneem Khaliq ◽  
Muhammad Habib ur Rahman ◽  
Asmat Ullah ◽  
Ishfaq Ahmed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Arid Region ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Sowing Dates ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Semi Arid Region ◽  
Semi Arid

Rising temperature from climate change is the most threatening factor worldwide for crop production. Sustainable wheat production is a challenge due to climate change and variability, which is ultimately a serious threat to food security in Pakistan. A series of field experiments were conducted during seasons 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 in the semi-arid (Faisalabad) and arid (Layyah) regions of Punjab-Pakistan. Three spring wheat genotypes were evaluated under eleven sowing dates from 16 October to 16 March, with an interval of 14–16 days in the two regions. Data for the model calibration and evaluation were collected from field experiments following the standard procedures and protocols. The grain yield under future climate scenarios was simulated by using a well-calibrated CERES-wheat model included in DSSAT v4.7. Future (2051–2100) and baseline (1980–2015) climatic data were simulated using 29 global circulation models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. These GCMs were distributed among five quadrants of climatic conditions (Hot/Wet, Hot/Dry, Cool/Dry, Cool/Wet, and Middle) by a stretched distribution approach based on temperature and rainfall change. A maximum of ten GCMs predicted the chances of Middle climatic conditions during the second half of the century (2051–2100). The average temperature during the wheat season in a semi-arid region and arid region would increase by 3.52 °C and 3.84 °C, respectively, under Middle climatic conditions using the RCP 8.5 scenario during the second half-century. The simulated grain yield was reduced by 23.5% in the semi-arid region and 35.45% in the arid region under Middle climatic conditions (scenario). Mean seasonal temperature (MST) of sowing dates ranged from 16 to 27.3 °C, while the mean temperature from the heading to maturity (MTHM) stage was varying between 12.9 to 30.4 °C. Coefficients of determination (R2) between wheat morphology parameters and temperature were highly significant, with a range of 0.84–0.96. Impacts of temperature on wheat sown on 15 March were found to be as severe as to exterminate the crop before heading. The spikes and spikelets were not formed under a mean seasonal temperature higher than 25.5 °C. In a nutshell, elevated temperature (3–4 °C) till the end-century can reduce grain yield by about 30% in semi-arid and arid regions of Pakistan. These findings are crucial for growers and especially for policymakers to decide on sustainable wheat production for food security in the region.

scholarly journals Testing Possible Scenario-Based Responses of Vegetation Under Expected Climatic Changes in Khuzestan Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 117862212110133
Author(s):  
Hadi Eskandari Damaneh ◽  
Meysam Jafari ◽  
Hamed Eskandari Damaneh ◽  
Marjan Behnia ◽  
Asadollah Khoorani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
System Model ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Khuzestan Province ◽  
Ecosystem Planning ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Projections of future scenarios are scarce in developing countries where human activities are increasing and impacting land uses. We present a research based on the assessment of the baseline trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, and temperature data for the Khuzestan Province, Iran, from 1984 to 2015 compiled from ground-based and remotely sensed sources. To achieve this goal, the Sen’s slope estimator, the Mann-Kendall test, and Pearson’s correlation test were used. After that, future trends in precipitation and temperature were estimated using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) model and were then used to estimate the NDVI trend for two future periods: from 2016 to 2046 and from 2046 to 2075. Our results showed that during the baseline period, precipitation decreased at all stations: 33.3% displayed a significant trend and the others were insignificant ones. Over the same period, the temperature increased at 66.7% of stations while NDVI decreased at all stations. The NDVI–precipitation relationship was positive while NDVI–temperature showed an inverse trend. During the first of the possible future periods and under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, NDVI and precipitation decreased, and temperatures significantly increased. In addition, the same trends were observed during the second future period; most of these were statistically significant. We conclude that much assessments are valuable and integral components of effective ecosystem planning and decisions.

scholarly journals Natural and Managed Grasslands Productivity during Multiyear in Ex-Arable Lands (in the Context of Climate Change)

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 215
Author(s):  
Liudmila Tripolskaja ◽  
Asta Kazlauskaite-Jadzevice ◽  
Virgilijus Baliuckas ◽  
Almantas Razukas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Properties ◽  
Dry Matter ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Rainfall Variation ◽  
Global Issue ◽  
Term Change ◽  
The Impact

Ex-arable land-use change is a global issue with significant implications for climate change and impact for phytocenosis productivity and soil quality. In temperate humid grassland, we examined the impact of climate variability and changes of soil properties on 23 years of grass productivity after conversion of ex-arable soil to abandoned land (AL), unfertilized, and fertilized managed grassland (MGunfert and MGfert, respectively). This study aimed to investigate the changes between phytocenosis dry matter (DM) yield and rainfall amount in May–June and changes of organic carbon (Corg) stocks in soil. It was found that from 1995 to 2019, rainfall in May–June tended to decrease. The more resistant to rainfall variation were plants recovered in AL. The average DM yield of MGfert was 3.0 times higher compared to that in the AL. The DM yields of AL and MG were also influenced by the long-term change of soil properties. Our results showed that Corg sequestration in AL was faster (0.455 Mg ha−1 year−1) than that in MGfert (0.321 Mg ha−1 year−1). These studies will be important in Arenosol for selecting the method for transforming low-productivity arable land into MG.

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