Linking Future Hydroclimatological Changes With Past Climatic Conditions In Southeastern Iran: Insights From Models And Observations

Abstract We compare the predicted results of future hydrological changes based on a thirty-year (1989-2019) weather dataset with paleoclimatic changes inferred based on established proxies from the Jazmurian playa in southeastern Iran. Parallels between expected changes in the future were compared to past climatic conditions to trace the impact this region has undergone in the distant past. The study area is affected by the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon (IOSM) and the Mid-Latitude Westerlies (MLW). The maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were predicted for the future (2061- 2080) by statistical downscaling outputs of 5 GCM models (EC-EARTH, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-MR) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results show that the 20-years average of the mean temperatures ((Tmax + Tmin)/2) will increase in the range of 3.2 to 4.6 °C under RCP 8.5 compared to the base period. The trends suggest that the region will experience drier conditions than the baseline period in the future under both scenarios. In addition, the GCM predicts a considerable decline in MLW precipitation and little change in future IOSM precipitation under both scenarios compared to the baseline. The decrease in MLW precipitation is consistent with other GCM predictions and real paleoclimatic changes that happened during past warm/wet periods in the region. However, considering the close relationship between the increase in the Earth’s radiation budget and enhanced IOSM precipitation in southeast Iran since the late Pleistocene, we postulate that more intensive IOSM activity can be expected in the future.

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Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

Applied Water Science ◽

10.1007/s13201-021-01494-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

Author(s):

Morteza Lotfirad ◽

Arash Adib ◽

Jaber Salehpoor ◽

Afshin Ashrafzadeh ◽

Ozgur Kisi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Baseline Period ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Downward Trend ◽

Future Period ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Future ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Impact

AbstractThis study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.

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A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology6030061 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 61 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kleoniki Demertzi ◽

Dimitris Papadimos ◽

Vassilis Aschonitis ◽

Dimitris Papamichail

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Drainage Basin ◽

Management Strategies ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Modified Model ◽

Natural Lakes ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

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A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modelling in Future Climatic Conditions

10.20944/preprints201802.0109.v1 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Dasaraden Mauree ◽

Silvia Coccolo ◽

Dasun Perera ◽

Vahid Nik ◽

Jean-Louis Scartezzini ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Urban Design ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Energy System ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Local Climate ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Building more energy efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effect of climate change and adapt for the future climate, requires the development new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architect and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099) were run as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P). We analyse the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of the buildings and determined the relevance of the accounting of the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations showed that in the future there will a constant decrease in the heating demand while for the cooling demand there will be a significant increase. It was further demonstrated that when the local climate was taken into account there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand but also that the proposed renovations were not sufficient to design resilient buildings. We then discuss the implication of this work on the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighbourhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspective regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for the future urban areas.

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Impact of future land-cover changes on HNO<sub>3</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> surface dry deposition

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-15-13555-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (23) ◽

pp. 13555-13568 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

T. Verbeke ◽

J. Lathière ◽

S. Szopa ◽

N. de Noblet-Ducoudré

Keyword(s):

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Dry Deposition ◽

Deposition Velocity ◽

Land Cover Changes ◽

Vegetation Distribution ◽

Deposition Velocities ◽

The Future ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Dry deposition is a key component of surface–atmosphere exchange of compounds, acting as a sink for several chemical species. Meteorological factors, chemical properties of the trace gas considered and land surface properties are strong drivers of dry deposition efficiency and variability. Under both climatic and anthropogenic pressure, the vegetation distribution over the Earth has been changing a lot over the past centuries and could be significantly altered in the future. In this study, we perform a modeling investigation of the potential impact of land-cover changes between the present day (2006) and the future (2050) on dry deposition velocities at the surface, with special interest for ozone (O3) and nitric acid (HNO3), two compounds which are characterized by very different physicochemical properties. The 3-D chemistry-transport model LMDz-INCA is used, considering changes in vegetation distribution based on the three future projections, RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, and present-day (2007) meteorology. The 2050 RCP 8.5 vegetation distribution leads to a rise of up to 7 % (+0.02 cm s−1) in the surface deposition velocity calculated for ozone (Vd,O3) and a decrease of −0.06 cm s−1 in the surface deposition velocity calculated for nitric acid (Vd,HNO3) relative to the present-day values in tropical Africa and up to +18 and −15 %, respectively, in Australia. When taking into account the RCP 4.5 scenario, which shows dramatic land-cover change in Eurasia, Vd,HNO3 increases by up to 20 % (annual-mean value) and reduces Vd,O3 by the same magnitude in this region. When analyzing the impact of surface dry deposition change on atmospheric chemical composition, our model calculates that the effect is lower than 1 ppb on annual-mean surface ozone concentration for both the RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios. The impact on HNO3 surface concentrations is more disparate between the two scenarios regarding the spatial repartition of effects. In the case of the RCP 4.5 scenario, a significant increase of the surface O3 concentration reaching locally by up to 5 ppb (+5 %) is calculated on average during the June–August period. This scenario also induces an increase of HNO3 deposited flux exceeding locally 10 % for monthly values. Comparing the impact of land-cover change to the impact of climate change, considering a 0.93 °C increase of global temperature, on dry deposition velocities, we estimate that the strongest increase over lands occurs in the Northern Hemisphere during winter, especially in Eurasia, by +50 % (+0.07 cm s−1) for Vd,O3 and +100 % (+0.9 cm s−1) for Vd,HNO3. However, different regions are affected by both changes, with climate change impact on deposition characterized by a latitudinal gradient, while the land-cover change impact is much more heterogeneous depending on vegetation distribution modification described in the future RCP scenarios. The impact of long-term land-cover changes on dry deposition is shown to be significant and to differ strongly from one scenario to another. It should therefore be considered in biosphere–atmospheric chemistry interaction studies in order to have a fully consistent picture.

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Drought risk assessments of water resources systems under climate change: a case study in Southern Taiwan

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-9-12395-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 9 (11) ◽

pp. 12395-12433 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

T. C. Yang ◽

C. Chen ◽

C. M. Kuo ◽

H. W. Tseng ◽

P. S. Yu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

General Circulation ◽

Risk Index ◽

Baseline Period ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Future Period ◽

The Future ◽

Southern Taiwan ◽

The Impact

Abstract. This study aims at assessing the impact of climate change on drought risk in a water resources system in Southern Taiwan by integrating the weather generator, hydrological model and simulation model of reservoir operation. Three composite indices with multi-aspect measurements of reservoir performance (i.e. reliability, resilience and vulnerability) were compared by their monotonic behaviors to find a suitable one for the study area. The suitable performance index was then validated by the historical drought events and proven to have the capability of being a drought risk index in the study area. The downscaling results under A1B emission scenario from seven general circulation models were used in this work. The projected results show that the average monthly mean inflows during the dry season tend to decrease from the baseline period (1980–1999) to the future period (2020–2039); the average monthly mean inflows during the wet season may increase/decrease in the future. Based on the drought risk index, the analysis results for public and agricultural water uses show that the occurrence frequency of drought may increase and the severity of drought may be more serious during the future period than during the baseline period, which makes a big challenge on water supply and allocation for the authorities of reservoir in Southern Taiwan.

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The impact of global warming on lake surface water temperature in Poland - the application of empirical-statistical downscaling, 1971-2100

Journal of Limnology ◽

10.4081/jlimnol.2018.1707 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 77 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Bartosz Czernecki ◽

Mariusz Ptak

Keyword(s):

Surface Water ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Temperature ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Statistical Downscaling ◽

Surface Water Temperature ◽

Lake Surface ◽

The Future ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Impact

The paper presents historical (1971-2015) and scenario-based (2006-2100) changes in surface water temperatures in 10 lakes of Poland. The analysis of historical measurement (1971-2015) showed that mean annual lake surface water temperature (LSWT) was characterised by an increasing tendency by 0.37°C∙dec-1 on average, and was higher by 0.01°C∙dec-1 than air temperature in the analogical period. The highest increase in LSWT was recorded in spring months (April, May) and in summer (July). The future changes in LSWT was based on simulations of 33 AOGCMs available in the scope of CMIP5 project for RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The developed empirical-statistical downscaling models (ESD) use the air temperature field as predictors, with consideration of autocorrelation for two preceding months. ESD models are characterised by high quality of reconstruction of water temperatures in the historical period, with correlation from 0.82 (December, February) to 0.93 (July). The future CMIP5 scenarios for the period 2006-2100 assume an increase in air temperature at the end of the 21st century from +1.8°C (RCP 2.6) to +5.1°C (RCP 8.5) in reference to the period 1971-2005. According to the downscaling models, this corresponds to an increase in water temperature in the analysed lakes ranging from +1.4°C (RCP 2.6) to +4.2°C (RCP 8.5) in the years 2081-2100, respectively, with evident variability between the adopted emission paths beginning from the period 2041-2060. At a monthly scale, water temperature will increase the slowest in February (2081-2100: RCP 2.6 = +0.5°C, RCP 8.5 = +1.8°C). The highest increase in temperature will occur from May to August (RCP 8.5 = +6°C in June).Substantial effects of transformations of the thermal regime are already observed today, e,g. in the reduction of the ice season length. According to developed scenarios, a further considerable increase in water temperature will be the primary factor determining the transformation of lake ecosystems. The obtained results provide a theoretical basis for further research conducted in the scope of many disciplines, among others hydrology, hydrobiology, ecology, water management, energy production, etc. In the case of Poland, issues related to low water resources per capita are particularly important. Contemporary studies concerning changes in water resources showed that the natural factor playing the key role in their reduction is temperature increase and therefore it should constitute for the possibly fast development of multidisciplinary concepts of mitigation policy to potential impact of climate change.

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High Spatial Resolution Climate Scenarios to Analyze Madrid Building Energy Demand

10.20944/preprints202007.0559.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Roberto San José ◽

Juan Luis Pérez ◽

Rosa María Gonzalez-Barras

Keyword(s):

Spatial Resolution ◽

Energy Demand ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Economic Cost ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Dynamics Models ◽

The Impact

We have modelled the energy consumption of prototype and real buildings under present and future climatic conditions with the EnergyPlus model to develop a better understanding of the relationship between changing climate conditions and energy demand. We have produced detailed meteorological information with 50 meters of spatial resolution through dynamical downscaling process combining regional, urban and computational fluid dynamics models which include the effects of the buildings on urban wind patterns. The city of Madrid has been chosen for our experiment. The impact on energy demand and their respective economic cost are calculated for year 2100 versus 2011 based on two IPCC climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 (stabilization of emissions) and RCP 8.5 (not reduction of emissions). Findings show that climate change will have a significant impact on the energy demand for buildings. Space heating demand will be increased by the RCP 4.5 and cooling demand will be increased for the RCP 8.5 in the analysed buildings.

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Odour Impact Assessment in a Changing Climate

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12091149 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (9) ◽

pp. 1149 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Martin Piringer ◽

Werner Knauder ◽

Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer ◽

Ivonne Anders ◽

Konrad Andre ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Climatic Parameters ◽

Residential Areas ◽

The Future ◽

Stability Classification ◽

The Stability ◽

The Impact

(1) Background: The impact of odour sources as stock farms on neighbouring residential areas might increase in the future because the relevant climatic parameters will be modified due to climate change. (2) Methodology: Separation distances are calculated for two Central European sites with considerable livestock activity influenced by different orographic and climatic conditions. Furthermore, two climate scenarios are considered, namely, the time period 1981–2010 (present climate) and the period 2036–2065 (future climate). Based on the provided climatic parameters, stability classes are derived as input for local-scale air pollution modelling. The separation distances are determined using the Lagrangian particle diffusion model LASAT. (3) Results: Main findings comprise the changes of stability classes between the present and the future climate and the resulting changes in the modelled odour impact. Model results based on different schemes for stability classification are compared. With respect to the selected climate scenarios and the variety of the stability schemes, a bandwidth of affected separation distances results. (4) Conclusions: The investigation reveals to what extent livestock husbandry will have to adapt to climate change, e.g., with impacts on today’s licensing processes.

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A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modelling in Future Climatic Conditions

10.20944/preprints201802.0109.v2 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Dasaraden Mauree ◽

Silvia Coccolo ◽

Amarasinghage Tharindu Perera ◽

Vahid Nik ◽

Jean-Louis Scartezzini ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Energy Consumption ◽

Urban Design ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Energy System ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Local Climate ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

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Soil fertility, financial support, and sustainable competitiveness: evidence from Ukraine

Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal ◽

10.51599/are.2020.06.02.01 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 5-23 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Anatolii Kucher

Keyword(s):

Soil Fertility ◽

Financial Support ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Time Range ◽

Climatic Zones ◽

Agricultural Enterprises ◽

Close Relationship ◽

Increase Productivity ◽

The Impact ◽

First Time

Purpose. The purpose of this paper was to highlight the results of the study of the influence of the soil fertility and financial support on the formation of sustainable competitiveness of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises. Methodology / approach. To achieve the purpose, we used such methods: correlation analysis (to identify and assess the close relationship between the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils, financial support per hectare, and the sustainable competitiveness); econometric modeling (to develop a mathematical model of the dependence of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield on the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare); economic-statistical and monographic (for the assessment and analysis of the influence of the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and financial support per hectare on the formation of sustainable competitiveness); abstract-and-logical (for generalization and analysis of the research results); graphical (for the visual representation of the revealed dependencies). The study was performed on a selected sample of agricultural enterprises of districts of Kharkiv, Volyn and Chernihiv region, which represent all the soil-climatic zones of Ukraine. The time range of this research covers the years 2010–2016. The database of the 189 observations in Kharkiv region, 93 – in Volyn region and 88 – in Chernihiv region was as the empirical basis. Results. This paper presents empirical evidence for the impact of the soil fertility and financial support on the formation of sustainable competitiveness of enterprises. The obtained results prove the hypothesis of a positive relationship between the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils, financial support per hectare, and the sustainable competitiveness of subjects, however, the level of impact of soil fertility differs significantly in different soil-climatic conditions. It is shown that soil fertility and financial support can sometimes act as substitutes, for example, in a zone of insufficient moisture or low soil fertility. Increasing the financial support for agricultural production per hectare may be a strategy to increase productivity when soils are less fertile. Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, one- and two-factor linear and quadratic econometric models were developed, which made it possible to carry out quantitative assessment of the impact of the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare on the formation of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield in various soil-climatic zones of Ukraine. The provision on the formation of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield under the conditions of the economic law of diminishing returns, was further developed. Practical value / implications. The main results of the study can be used for (i) estimation and forecasting of the level of competitiveness depending on the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare; (ii) determining the effect of measures to improve the soil fertility on the competitiveness; (iii) determining the impact of soil degradation on competitiveness of agribusiness entities; (iv) identification of reserves to improve competitiveness.

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