scholarly journals High Spatial Resolution Climate Scenarios to Analyze Madrid Building Energy Demand

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto San José ◽  
Juan Luis Pérez ◽  
Rosa María Gonzalez-Barras
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
The Impact

We have modelled the energy consumption of prototype and real buildings under present and future climatic conditions with the EnergyPlus model to develop a better understanding of the relationship between changing climate conditions and energy demand. We have produced detailed meteorological information with 50 meters of spatial resolution through dynamical downscaling process combining regional, urban and computational fluid dynamics models which include the effects of the buildings on urban wind patterns. The city of Madrid has been chosen for our experiment. The impact on energy demand and their respective economic cost are calculated for year 2100 versus 2011 based on two IPCC climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 (stabilization of emissions) and RCP 8.5 (not reduction of emissions). Findings show that climate change will have a significant impact on the energy demand for buildings. Space heating demand will be increased by the RCP 4.5 and cooling demand will be increased for the RCP 8.5 in the analysed buildings.

Climate change risks to push large parts of global food production and population centres to unprecedented conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matti Kummu ◽  
Matias Heino ◽  
Maija Taka ◽  
Olli Varis ◽  
Daniel Viviroli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Production Areas ◽  
Global Food

<p>The majority of global food production, as we know it, is based on agricultural practices developed within stable Holocene climate conditions. Climate change is altering the key conditions for human societies, such as precipitation, temperature and aridity. Their combined impact on altering the conditions in areas where people live and grow food has not yet, however, been systematically quantified on a global scale. Here, we estimate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) on major population centres and food crop production areas at 5 arc-min scale (~10 km at equator) using Holdridge Life Zones (HLZs), a concept that incorporates all the aforementioned climatic characteristics. We found that if rapid growth of GHG emissions is not halted (RCP 8.5), in year 2070, one fifth of the major food production areas and one fourth of the global population centres would experience climate conditions beyond the ones where food is currently produced, and people are living. Our results thus reinforce the importance of following the RCP 2.6 path, as then only a small fraction of food production (5%) and population centres (6%) would face such unprecedented conditions. Several areas experiencing these unprecedented conditions also have low resilience, such as those within Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Chad, and Guinea-Bissau. In these countries over 75% of food production and population would experience unprecedented climatic conditions under RCP 8.5. These and many other hotspot areas require the most urgent attention to secure sustainable development and equity.</p>

scholarly journals Forecasting the impacts of chemical pollution and climate change interactions on the health of wildlife

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 669-689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pamela D. Noyes ◽  
Sean C. Lema
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Chemical Pollution ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Chemical Toxicity ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Chemical Exposures

Abstract Global climate change is impacting organisms, biological communities and ecosystems around the world. While most research has focused on characterizing how the climate is changing, including modeling future climatic conditions and predicting the impacts of these conditions on biodiversity, it is also the case that climate change is altering the environmental impacts of chemical pollution. Future climate conditions are expected to influence both the worldwide distribution of chemicals and the toxicological consequences of chemical exposures to organisms. Many of the environmental changes associated with a warming global climate (e.g., increased average – and possibly extreme – temperatures; intense periods of drier and wetter conditions; reduced ocean pH; altered salinity dynamics in estuaries) have the potential to enhance organism susceptibility to chemical toxicity. Additionally, chemical exposures themselves may impair the ability of organisms to cope with the changing environmental conditions of the shifting climate. Such reciprocity in the interactions between climate change and chemicals illustrates the complexity inherent in predicting the toxicological consequences of chemical exposures under future climate scenarios. Here, we summarize what is currently known about the potential reciprocal effects of climate change and chemical toxicity on wildlife, and depict current approaches and ongoing challenges for incorporating climate effects into chemical testing and assessment. Given the rapid pace of new man-made chemistries, the development of accurate and rapid methods to evaluate multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors in an ecologically relevant context will be critical to understanding toxic and endocrine-disrupting effects of chemical pollutants under future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Energy modeling of a single-family house with photovoltaics for the Russian Federation

2019 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 01016
Author(s):  
Dmitry Shiryaev ◽  
Andrey Benuzh
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Energy Modeling ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Family House

Residential sector in Russia makes up a significant part in the total energy demand of the country. The article demonstrates sensible energy saving potential in case of a single-family house in different climate conditions of the Russian Federation. Modern tools of building energy performance simulation and renewable energy modeling demonstrated a significant effect of the complex energy efficiency technologies, such as using of modern highly insulated constructional materials, installation of efficient heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, and implementation of sustainable energy. Annual energy use dramatically declines in comparing with buildings built according to outdated technologies. In particular, the use of photovoltaic modules can meet more than half of the building's energy demand and ensure the autonomy of a building during the warm season. These values differ depending on the location due to the large territory and diverse climatic conditions from the Mediterranean in the south to the Arctic ones in the north.

The impact of thermal mass on cold and hot climate zones of Portugal

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 733-743 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge S. Carlos
Keyword(s):  
Heat Capacity ◽  
Thermal Resistance ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Internal Heat ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Thermal Mass ◽  
Steady State Condition ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is focused on the energy performance of buildings containing massive wall alternatives. The analysis comprised the comparison of the heating and cooling loads of seven characteristic wall configurations of one sample building with different dynamic internal heat capacity (ISO 13790:2008) in spite of the equal thermal resistance. The equal thermal resistance, as derived from simple steady-state condition, was imposed in order to allow research of effects solely attributed to the wall heat capacity on the building performance. A detached one floor dwelling exposed to different climate conditions in Portugal was analysed to illustrate the effect of the same wall in terms of energy demand during cold and hot weather conditions. A whole building dynamic modelling using EnergyPlus was employed for the energy analysis. The best thermal performance was obtained with massive walls that were located at the inner side, for a very heavy weight building and high building time constant.

scholarly journals The Impact of a Mobile Shading System and a Phase-Change Heat Store on the Thermal Functioning of a Transparent Building Partition

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 2512
Author(s):  
Michał Musiał ◽  
Lech Lichołai
Keyword(s):  
Phase Change ◽  
Phase Change Material ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Temperate Climate ◽  
Summer Period ◽  
Heat Accumulator ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Change Material

The article presents the results of multi-month field tests and numerical analyses describing the thermal functioning of mobile shading systems for building windows containing a phase-change heat accumulator. The experiments were conducted in the summer period with temperate climate conditions in Rzeszów (Poland). The tested shading system was dedicated to the daily life cycle of residents, taking into account both the need to illuminate the rooms with natural light and reducing the undesirable overheating of the rooms in the summer. The obtained empirical results showed a reduction in room overheating in the summer period by 29.4% from composite windows with a phase-change heat accumulator and a mobile shading system as compared to the reference composite window with an analogous mobile shading system. The database of empirical results allowed for the creation and verification of a numerical model of heat conversion, storage and distribution within the composite window containing phase change material and a mobile shading system. The verified model made it possible to analyse the thermal functioning of the modified transparent partitions in cool temperate, temperate and subtropical climates. The article is a solution to the problem of undesirable overheating of transparent building partitions by efficient storage and distribution of solar radiation energy thanks to the use of a mobile shading system and a phase change material, while presenting a useful tool enabling the prediction of energy gains in different climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Hydrologic-land surface modelling of the Canadian sporadic-discontinuous permafrost: initialization and uncertainty propagation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Abdelhamed ◽  
Mohamed Elshamy ◽  
Howard Wheater ◽  
Saman Razavi
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Field Capacity ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Discontinuous Permafrost ◽  
Initial Soil ◽  
Model Initialization ◽  
The Impact

Permafrost thaw has been observed in recent decades in the Northern Hemisphere and is expected to accelerate with continued global warming. Predicting the future of permafrost requires proper representation of the interrelated surface/subsurface thermal and hydrologic regimes. Land surface models (LSMs) are well suited for such predictions, as they couple heat and water interactions across soil-vegetation-atmosphere interfaces and can be applied over large scales. LSMs, however, are challenged by the long-term thermal and hydraulic memories of permafrost and the paucity of historical records to represent permafrost dynamics under transient climate conditions. In this study, we address the challenge of model initialization by characterizing the impact of initial climate conditions and initial soil frozen and liquid water contents on the simulation length required to reach equilibrium. Further, we quantify how the uncertainty in model initialization propagates to simulated permafrost dynamics. Modelling experiments are conducted with the Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire – Surface and Hydrology (MESH) framework and its embedded Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS). The study area is in the Liard River basin in the Northwest Territories of Canada with sporadic and discontinuous regions. Results show that uncertainty in model initialization controls various attributes of simulated permafrost, especially the active layer thickness, which could change by 0.5-1.5m depending on the initial condition chosen. The least number of spin-up cycles is achieved with near field capacity condition, but the number of cycles varies depending on the spin-up year climate. We advise an extended spin-up of 200-1000 cycles to ensure proper model initialization under different climatic conditions and initial soil moisture contents.

scholarly journals The impact of emissions and climate change on ozone in the United States under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 11315-11355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Gao ◽  
J. S. Fu ◽  
J. B. Drake ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
Y. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
The United States ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Photochemical Reactions ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Dynamical downscaling was applied in this study to link the global climate–chemistry model Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) with the regional models: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the climate impact on ozone concentrations in 2050s. Ozone concentrations in the lower-mid troposphere (surface to ~ 300 hPa), from mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), show decreasing trends in RCP 4.5 between 2000s and 2050s, with the largest decrease of 4–10 ppbv occurring in the summer and the fall; and increasing trends (2–12 ppbv) in RCP 8.5 resulting from the increased methane emissions. In RCP 8.5, methane emissions increase by ~ 60% by the end of 2050s, accounting for more than 90% of ozone increases in summer and fall, and 60–80% in spring and winter. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the summer when photochemical reactions are the most active, the large ozone precursor emissions reduction leads to the greatest decrease of downscaled surface ozone concentrations, ranging from 6 to 10 ppbv. However, a few major cities show ozone increases of 3 to 7 ppbv due to weakened NO titration. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, in winter, downscaled ozone concentrations increase across nearly the entire continental US in winter, ranging from 3 to 10 ppbv due to increased methane emissions and enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). More intense heat waves are projected to occur by the end of 2050s in RCP 8.5, leading to more than 8 ppbv of the maximum daily 8 h daily average (MDA8) ozone during the heat wave days than other days; this indicates the dramatic impact heat waves exert on high frequency ozone events.

scholarly journals The impact of emission and climate change on ozone in the United States under representative concentration pathways (RCPs)

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 9607-9621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Gao ◽  
J. S. Fu ◽  
J. B. Drake ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
Y. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
The United States ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Photochemical Reactions ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Dynamical downscaling was applied in this study to link the global climate-chemistry model Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) with the regional models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the climate impact on ozone concentrations in the 2050s. From the CAM-Chem global simulation results, ozone concentrations in the lower to mid-troposphere (surface to ~300 hPa), from mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, decreases by the end of the 2050s (2057–2059) in RCP 4.5 compared to present (2001–2004), with the largest decrease of 4–10 ppbv occurring in the summer and the fall; and an increase as high as 10 ppbv in RCP 8.5 resulting from the increased methane emissions. From the regional model CMAQ simulation results, under the RCP 4.5 scenario (2057–2059), in the summer when photochemical reactions are the most active, the large ozone precursor emissions reduction leads to the greatest decrease of downscaled surface ozone concentrations compared to present (2001–2004), ranging from 6 to 10 ppbv. However, a few major cities show ozone increases of 3 to 7 ppbv due to weakened NO titration. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, in winter, downscaled ozone concentrations increase across nearly the entire continental US in winter, ranging from 3 to 10 ppbv due to increased methane emissions. More intense heat waves are projected to occur by the end of the 2050s in RCP 8.5, leading to a 0.3 ppbv to 2.0 ppbv increase (statistically significant except in the Southeast) of the mean maximum daily 8 h daily average (MDA8) ozone in nine climate regions in the US. Moreover, the upper 95% limit of MDA8 increase reaches 0.4 ppbv to 1.5 ppbv in RCP 4.5 and 0.6 ppbv to 3.2 ppbv in RCP 8.5. The magnitude differences of increase between RCP 4.5 and 8.5 also reflect that the increase of methane emissions may favor or strengthen the effect of heat waves.

scholarly journals Managing climate-change-induced overheating in non-residential buildings

2020 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 02009
Author(s):  
André Badura ◽  
Birgit Mueller ◽  
Ivo Martinac
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Indoor Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Outdoor Climate

Large and rapid climatic changes can be uncomfortable and sometimes hazardous to humans. Buildings protect people from external climatic conditions, and also mitigate the impacts of external climate extremes through their design and construction, as well as with the help of dedicated building service and other technical systems. Active space conditioning accounts for more than 30 per cent of the overall final energy use in Germany. In the life cycle of a building, the construction phase (planning and construction) is the phase with the shortest duration. However, the quality applied during this phase has a significant impact on the resources required, as well as the overall building performance during the much longer operational phase. Once built, buildings are often unable to adapt to boundary conditions that were not considered in the original building design. Consequently, changing outdoor climate conditions can result in an uncomfortable indoor climate over the lifetime of a building. The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness of flexible solutions for reducing winter heating loads and to reducing/avoiding summer cooling loads in nonresidential buildings in Germany. Various external shading scenarios for non-residential buildings were analysed using the IDA ICE indoor climate and energy simulation tool. Key simulation parameters included the orientation and location of the building, as well as the envelope structure. We investigated the impacts of solar shading on heat storage in the building mass and indoor climate and how different types of envelopes affect overall energy use. The result shows that the use of an adaptive building envelope allows a higher reduction of the total energy demand by 7 % to 15 % compared to an increase in insulation thickness only.

scholarly journals Ensemble Modeling of the Impact of Climate Warming and Increased Frequency of Extreme Climatic Events on the Thermal Characteristics of a Sub-Tropical Lake

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gideon Gal ◽  
Gilboa Yael ◽  
Schachar Noam ◽  
Estroti Moshe ◽  
Dirk Schlabing
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Thermal Characteristics ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tropical Lake ◽  
Gradual Change ◽  
Lake Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Lake ecosystems are impacted by changes in climatic conditions. Climate changes forecasted to occur are reflected in models by slow gradual changes over extended periods of time. Output from weather generators, on the other hand, can simulate short-term extreme conditions and weather patterns. In order to evaluate the likely impact of climate changes on a large sub-tropical lake, specifically the thermal regime of the lake, we constructed climate scenarios using a weather generator. The 30-year scenarios included no change in climate conditions, a gradual change, increased frequency of heat waves and a merging of the latter two. The projected impact on the lake’s physical properties was evaluated using an ensemble of 1-D hydrodynamic lake models. The gradual increase scenario had the largest impact on annual temperatures and stratification period; however, increased heat waves had a large effect on the summer lake conditions and introduced a larger degree of variability in water temperature. The use of the ensemble of models resulted in variability in the projected impacts; yet, the large degree of similarity between projected trends and patterns increased confidence in the results. The projected effect the heat waves will have on the lake conditions highlights the need to include heat waves in climate studies and the need for impact studies in order to better understand possible consequences for lake ecosystems.

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