Drought risk assessments of water resources systems under climate change: a case study in Southern Taiwan

Abstract. This study aims at assessing the impact of climate change on drought risk in a water resources system in Southern Taiwan by integrating the weather generator, hydrological model and simulation model of reservoir operation. Three composite indices with multi-aspect measurements of reservoir performance (i.e. reliability, resilience and vulnerability) were compared by their monotonic behaviors to find a suitable one for the study area. The suitable performance index was then validated by the historical drought events and proven to have the capability of being a drought risk index in the study area. The downscaling results under A1B emission scenario from seven general circulation models were used in this work. The projected results show that the average monthly mean inflows during the dry season tend to decrease from the baseline period (1980–1999) to the future period (2020–2039); the average monthly mean inflows during the wet season may increase/decrease in the future. Based on the drought risk index, the analysis results for public and agricultural water uses show that the occurrence frequency of drought may increase and the severity of drought may be more serious during the future period than during the baseline period, which makes a big challenge on water supply and allocation for the authorities of reservoir in Southern Taiwan.

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Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

Applied Water Science ◽

10.1007/s13201-021-01494-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

Author(s):

Morteza Lotfirad ◽

Arash Adib ◽

Jaber Salehpoor ◽

Afshin Ashrafzadeh ◽

Ozgur Kisi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Baseline Period ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Downward Trend ◽

Future Period ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Future ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Impact

AbstractThis study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.

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Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Runoff of River Satluj

Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology ◽

10.3126/jhm.v8i1.15568 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 10-21

Author(s):

Narayan P Gautam ◽

Manohar Arora ◽

N.K. Goel ◽

A.R.S. Kumar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

General Circulation ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Basin Scale ◽

The Future ◽

Future Climatic Condition ◽

The Impact

Climate change has been emerging as one of the challenges in the global environment. Information of predicted climatic changes in basin scale is highly useful to know the future climatic condition in the basin that ultimately becomes helpful to carry out planning and management of the water resources available in the basin. Climatic scenario is a plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This study based on statistical downscaling, provide good example focusing on predicting the rainfall and runoff patterns, using the coarse general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The outputs of the GCMs are utilized to study the impact of climate change on water resources. The present study has been taken up to identify the climate change scenarios for Satluj river basin, India.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) p.10-21

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A simulation study on the effect of climate change on crop water use and chill unit accumulation

South African Journal of Science ◽

10.17159/sajs.2017/20160119 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 113 (7/8) ◽

Author(s):

Abiodun A. Ogundeji ◽

Henry Jordaan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Use ◽

Irrigation System ◽

Future Climate ◽

Crop Water ◽

Crop Water Use ◽

Chill Unit ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Climate change and its impact on already scarce water resources are of global importance, but even more so for water scarce countries. Apart from the effect of climate change on water supply, the chill unit requirement of deciduous fruit crops is also expected to be affected. Although research on crop water use has been undertaken, researchers have not taken the future climate into consideration. They also have focused on increasing temperatures but failed to relate temperature to chill unit accumulation, especially in South Africa. With a view of helping farmers to adapt to climate change, in this study we provide information that will assist farmers in their decision-making process for adaptation and in the selection of appropriate cultivars of deciduous fruits. Crop water use and chill unit requirements are modelled for the present and future climate. Results show that, irrespective of the irrigation system employed, climate change has led to increases in crop water use. Water use with the drip irrigation system was lower than with sprinkler irrigation as a result of efficiency differences in the irrigation technologies. It was also confirmed that the accumulated chill units will decrease in the future as a consequence of climate change. In order to remain in production, farmers need to adapt to climate change stress by putting in place water resources and crop management plans. Thus, producers must be furnished with a variety of adaptation or management strategies to overcome the impact of climate change.

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A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology6030061 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 61 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kleoniki Demertzi ◽

Dimitris Papadimos ◽

Vassilis Aschonitis ◽

Dimitris Papamichail

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Drainage Basin ◽

Management Strategies ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Modified Model ◽

Natural Lakes ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

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Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050

10.5194/nhess-2016-257 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kuo Li ◽

Jie Pan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Water Resources ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Sensitivity Index ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

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Urban water demand assessment for sustainable water resources management, under climate change and socioeconomic changes

Water Science & Technology Water Supply ◽

10.2166/ws.2019.199 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 20 (2) ◽

pp. 679-687 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Angelos Alamanos ◽

Stamatis Sfyris ◽

Chrysostomos Fafoutis ◽

Nikitas Mylopoulos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Management ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Conservation ◽

Water Demand ◽

Management Scenarios ◽

Sustainable Water Resources Management ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact ◽

The City

Abstract The relationship between water abstraction and water availability has turned into a major stress factor in the urban exploitation of water resources. The situation is expected to be sharpened in the future due to the intensity of extreme meteorological phenomena, and socio-economic changes affecting water demand. In the city of Volos, Greece, the number of water counters has been tripled during the last four decades. This study attempts to simulate the city's network, supply system and water demand through a forecasting model. The forecast was examined under several situations, based on climate change and socio-economic observations of the city, using meteorological, water pricing, users' income, level of education, family members, floor and residence size variables. The most interesting outputs are: (a) the impact of each variable in the water consumption and (b) water balance under four management scenarios, indicating the future water management conditions of the broader area, including demand and supply management. The results proved that rational water management can lead to remarkable water conservation. The simulation of real scenarios and future situations in the city's water demand and balance, is the innovative element of the study, making it capable of supporting the local water utility.

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On the Landslide Hazard with the Impact of Climate Change in Central Taiwan

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4546 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Keh-Jian Shou

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Tectonic Activity ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Weather Events ◽

The Future ◽

Central Taiwan ◽

The Impact ◽

Taiwan Area

<p>Due to active tectonic activity, the rock formations are young and highly fractured in Taiwan area. The dynamic changing of river morphology makes the highly weathered formations or colluviums prone to landslide and debris flow. For the past decade, the effect of climate change is significant and creates more and more extreme weather events. The change of rainfall behavior significantly changes the landslide behavior, which makes the large-scale landslides, like the Shiaolin landslide, possible. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the new technologies for landslide investigation, monitoring, analysis, early warning, etc.</p><p>Since the landslide hazards in Taiwan area are mainly induced by heavy rainfall, due to climate change and the subsequent extreme weather events, the probability of landslides is also increased. Focusing on the upstreams of the watersheds in Central Taiwan, this project studied the behavior and hazard of shallow and deep-seated landslides. Different types of susceptibility models in different catchment scales were tested, in which the control factors were analyzed and discussed. This study also employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to predict the extreme rainfalls in the future. Such that the future hazard of the shallow and deep-seated landslide in the study area can be predicted. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.</p>

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Impact of Climate Change on River Flows in the Black Volta River

Journal of Disaster Research ◽

10.20965/jdr.2014.p0432 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 432-442 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Nobuhiko Sawai ◽

◽

Kenichiro Kobayashi ◽

Apip ◽

Kaoru Takara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Future Climate ◽

Precipitation Pattern ◽

Present Climate ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Maximum Rainfall ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

This paper assesses the impact of climate change in the Black Volta River by using data output from the atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km resolution (AGCM20) through the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The Black Volta, which flows mainly in Burkina Faso and Ghana in West Africa, is a major tributary of the Volta River. The basin covers 142,056 km2 and has a semi-arid tropical climate. Before applying AGCM20 output to a rainfall–runoff model, the performance of the AGCM20 rainfall data is investigated by comparing it with the observed rainfall in the Black Volta Basin. To assess the possible impact of rainfall change on river flow, a kinematic wave model, which takes into consideration saturated and unsaturated subsurface soil zones, was performed. The rainfall analysis shows that, the correlation coefficient of the monthly rainfall between the observed rainfall and AGCM20 for the present climate (1979–2004) is 0.977. In addition, the analysis shows that AGCM20 overestimates precipitation during the rainy season and underestimates the dry season for the present climate. The analysis of the AGCM20 output shows the precipitation pattern change in the future (2075–2099). In the future, precipitation is expected to increase by 3%, whereas evaporation and transpiration are expected to increase by 5% and by 8%, respectively. Also, daily maximum rainfall is expected to be 20 mm, or 60%, higher. Thus, the future climate in this region is expected to be more severe. The rainfall–runoff simulation is successfully calibrated at the Bamboi discharge gauging station in the Black Volta fromJune 2000 to December 2000 with 0.72 of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency index. The model is applied with AGCM20 outputs for the present climate (1979–2004) and future climate (2075–2099). The results indicate that future discharge will decrease from January to July at the rate of the maximum of 50% and increase fromAugust to December at the rate of the maximumof 20% in the future. Therefore, comprehensive planning for both floods and droughts are urgently needed in this region.

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Impact of climate change on ice regime in a river regulated for hydropower

Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering ◽

10.1139/cjce-2014-0261 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 42 (9) ◽

pp. 634-644 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Netra P. Timalsina ◽

Knut T. Alfredsen ◽

Ånund Killingtveit

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Model Simulation ◽

Regulated River ◽

River Ice ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Future ◽

Ice Conditions ◽

Ice Regime ◽

The Impact

The ice conditions in a regulated river will depend on the climatic changes as well as the changes to the hydropower operation strategies in the future. The existing literature shows that very few studies have been carried out to investigate the impact of climate change on the river ice regime, which is important for operation of hydropower in cold climates. In this study, a series of modelling tools have been used to transform the climate change signal in terms of precipitation and air temperature into cross-section based river ice assessment in a basin with a complicated hydropower system. The study is based on the EURO-CORDEX climate change data extracted from a regional climate model driven by a suite of five general circulation models with three representative concentration pathways. Hydrological model simulation results show that the winter and spring flow will be increased, which will have an impact on the river ice conditions towards the middle and end of this century. Reservoir-hydropower model simulation shows that the production flows in the winter will be increased in the future. River ice model simulation shows the number of days with freezing water temperature are reduced in the future climate, and correspondingly days with frazil ice are reduced at most of the locations in the study area. The future period with ice cover will also be shortened. The paper also demonstrates a general methodology and procedure to simulate future ice conditions in a regulated river combining multiple models and data sets.

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Impact Assessment of Climate Change on the Near and the Far Future Streamflow in the Bocheongcheon Basin of Geumgang River, South Korea

Water ◽

10.3390/w13182516 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (18) ◽

pp. 2516

Author(s):

Yoonji Kim ◽

Jieun Yu ◽

Kyungil Lee ◽

Hye In Chung ◽

Hyun Chan Sung ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Resources Management ◽

Model Performance ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Management Policy ◽

Resources Management ◽

The Future ◽

Management Plans ◽

The Impact

Highly concentrated precipitation during the rainy season poses challenges to the South Korean water resources management in efficiently storing and redistributing water resources. Under the new climate regime, water resources management is likely to become more challenging with regards to water-related disaster risk and deterioration of water quality. To alleviate such issues by adjusting management plans, this study examined the impact of climate change on the streamflow in the Bocheongcheon basin of the Geumgang river. A globally accepted hydrologic model, the HEC-HMS model, was chosen for the simulation. By the calibration and the validation processes, the model performance was evaluated to range between “satisfactory” and “very good”. The calibrated model was then used to simulate the future streamflow over six decades from 2041 to 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicated significant increase in the future streamflow of the study site in all months and seasons over the simulation period. Intensification of seasonal differences and fluctuations was projected under RCP 8.5, implying a challenge for water resources managers to secure stable sources of clean water and to prevent water-related disasters. The analysis of the simulation results was applied to suggest possible local adaptive water resources management policy.

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