Developing Landslide Hazard Scenario of Kashmir Himalaya from the Historical Events
Abstract Kashmir Himalaya being a rugged and tectonically active zone has complex, unstable geology along with steep slopes, creating a favorable environment for landslide hazards, especially along the National Highway (NH-44) that connects the Vale of Kashmir with the rest of India. The historical landslide database for the whole country has not yet been developed and the data provided by various government organizations are often very limited because most of the time local and small-scale landslide events do not get recorded, thus, leading to misinterpretations. The present study focuses on retrieving the information on landslide events and their impacts to develop a comprehensive database for the period from 1990 to 2020 in Jammu and Kashmir, emphasizing Jammu-Srinagar National Highway (NH-44). A hotspot analysis tool (Getis-ord-Gi* algorithm) was used to understand the spatial distribution and concentration of the events throughout the region. The annual and seasonal analysis of the 739 landslide events reported in the valley for the selected period suggests an increasing trend causing 1000 fatalities and 267 injuries. The findings show that out of 20 districts, 16 are relatively more exposed to landslides and the socio-impact induced by landslides was found more along the NH-44 with 303 landslide occurrences reported in 260 days in the past three decades having a high intensity of damage and loss. The results of this study are expected to be of potential use for developing a Landslide Early Warning System (LEWS) and for mitigating the impacts of landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya.