Determination Of State Economic Activities - Developing Countries In East Asia & Pacific Using Classical Approaches

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khoirul Fuddin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Productive Land

Abstract Countries in East Asia and the Pacific region are potential countries with fairly strong economic growth rates amid slowing global economic growth. One contributing factor to economic growth in East Asia and the Pacific can be seen using a classical approach where economic growth is seen from capital, natural resources, incoming foreign investment and the use of technology. This research wants to see how big these factors are in influencing the economic activities of developing countries in East Asia and the Pacific. The methodology used in this study is to use a Vector Error Correction Model by focusing on the impulse response function and variance decomposition to see the response of several variables due to changes in other variables and to see how much the proportion of one variable affects other variables in the short term or long term. In the short term, incoming foreign investment and technology affect productive land while in the long run productive land is influenced by incoming foreign investment and human resources. In the short term, GDP is not affected by any variable, whereas in the long term GDP is affected by human resources, incoming foreign investment, and technology. In the long run, human resources are affected by incoming foreign investment. Foreign investment that enters in the short term is influenced by productive land and human resources, whereas in the long run, only human resources can directly influence foreign investment. Technology in the short term is influenced by productive land and incoming foreign investment while in the long run technology is influenced by incoming foreign investment and human resources. The economic growth reflected in GDP and productive land contained in East Asia and the Pacific was largely influenced by technology in the final period. Incoming foreign investment and technology are largely influenced by productive land. Whereas the human resources found in East Asia and the Pacific are mostly influenced by GDP.

scholarly journals Analysis of Ziswaf, Production Index and Sharia Stock Index on Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-242
Author(s):  
Purbawati Setyaningsih ◽  
Roikhan Mochamad Aziz ◽  
Puji Hadiyati
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Term Model ◽  
Long Run

This study analyzes the influence ZISWAF, Gini ratio, the total export value, the index of industrial production, sharia stock index investment to GDP growth, in the short and long term. Qualitative data were taken from BPS, Baznas, ACT Global Waqf, the FSA from March 2006 until December 2017 using the methodology of The Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the variable Gini Ratio, Ziswaf, Total exports, Production Index and Sharia Stock Index on GDP economic growth have significant and positive effects in the long term and the short term. Meaning that these variables have a relationship with GDP economic growth. If the variable decreases or slows down-then GDP economic growth also. While total exports have insignificant effects and negative effects on GDP economic growth. The R-square regression value of the long-term model produces a proportion of 96 percent, the short-term model produces a proportion of 97 percent. Both in the long-run and short-run models, the highest coefficient value is the value of the Gini ratio with 4.941522 and 0.348043. All positive coefficients, Gini ratio variables, ziswaf and production index have a significant effect on gdp, total exports and sharia stock indexes do not have a significant effect on gdp both in the long and short-term models. It implies in the future, fiscal economic policy makers to economic growth that opened a lot of employment, by encouraging resource based economic activities of Indonesia's largest export-oriented agriculture and mining. Good Corporate goverment should do so gini ratio of the areas surrounding the economy improved and people kesejahtaeraan increase.

Privatisation, Myopia and the Long-Run Provision of Economic Infrastructure in Australia

2008 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Public Economic ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Infrastructure Provision ◽  
Economic Infrastructure ◽  
The Impact

The privatisation of economic infrastructure in Australia that began in the 1980s has continued to be actively pursued by state and federal governments. Evaluations of the effects of the change of policy, ownership, control and regulatory arrangements that have accompanied privatisation and their impact on the longer-term stock of infrastructure and the growth of the economy have received less attention than the immediate privatisation decisions. This article reviews some of the studies that have been carried out to evaluate the impact of privatisation, focusing on long-term impacts on infrastructure provision. In particular, it discusses the myopia created by the emphasis on commercial transactions and managing markets that continues to shape the debate about the provision of infrastructure to meet Australia's economic, environmental and other objectives. Objectives have become even more difficult to achieve as an increasingly extensive and complex regulatory framework is required to manage privatised activities. This adds to costs and limits the potential for the introduction of new initiatives to address pressing problems. The issue is increasingly relevant, given the current perceived shortage of infrastructure and the flow-on effects of the current international financial crisis on Australia. The slow-down in economic growth accompanying the financial crisis is putting pressure on government budgets and threatening to perpetuate the existing policy bias towards short-term solutions, exacerbating the longer run problem of ensuring an adequate supply of public economic infrastructure.

scholarly journals Dynamic Effects of Foreign Portfolio Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-12
Author(s):  
O.W. Toyin ◽  
Ad. E. Oludayol
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Portfolio Investment ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
The Relationship

The slow growth rate and the deficit of full-fledged financial security have created the preconditions for studying the relationship between foreign investment and economic growth. In previous literature, key emphases on this issue were studied in the short term and in terms of static functioning of the economy. Thus, this article purposely studied the dynamic nature of the development of the relationship between foreign investment and economic growth in Nigeria from 1980 to 2018. The use of the Augmented-Dickey Fuller test confirmed the precondition for adopting dynamic techniques to test the significant role of foreign portfolio investment (among other analyzed factors – domestic savings, government capital expenditures, market capitalization) in the formation of gross domestic product. The use of the lag selection method allowed to determine the optimal lag for estimating the autoregressive distributed model, which substantiates the effectiveness and reliability of the autoregressive distributed lag model. The information base of the study was the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria. The results of empirical estimations in the short term showed that domestic savings had significant and negative impact on gross domestic product. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that foreign investment, domestic savings, government spending and market capitalization determine long-term trends in gross domestic product formation in Nigeria. Practically, the empirical result revealed that the presence of a significant deficit of domestic savings in Nigeria creates obstacles to successful economic growth in the country both in the short and long term; portfolio foreign investment accelerates economic growth in the long run to a greater extent than in the short run. Keywords: autoregressive distributed model, Dickie-Fuller test, economic growth, foreign investment, double gap theory.

scholarly journals PENERAPAN AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG DALAM MEMODELKAN PENGARUH INFLASI, PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, DAN FDI TERHADAP PENGANGGURAN DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 250
Author(s):  
Jumhur Jumhur
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study aims to examine the effect of inflation, economic growth, and foreign investment on unemployment in Indonesia. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis method to analyze the 1991-2018 time series data collected from the World Bank's World Development Indicators database. The results found that inflation has a negative and significant effect in the short term but not significant in the long term in Indonesia. Economic growth has a negative and significant effect on both short and             long-term unemployment in Indonesia, and foreign investment has a negative and significant effect on both short and long-term unemployment in Indonesia. Through the ARDL model, this research is able to prove that inflation, economic growth, foreign investment, and budgeting are proven to have long-term cointegration or move together in the long term. The four variables also have a dynamic short-term relationship that has a fairly high speed of adjustment towards equilibrium per year. Based on the results, policymakers, in this case the government must provide a conducive investment environment by eliminating the structural rigidity that exists in the economy to attract investment, both foreign and domestic investment, to encourage economic growth and create jobs in Indonesia.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Daouda Coulibaly ◽  
Fulgence Zran Goueu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between exports and economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire. In order to achieve this objective, annual data for the period 1960-2017 were tested by using the cointegration approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith, including the causality test of Breitung and Schreiber. According to our analysis it is only exports that drive economic growth and not the opposite. Exports act positively and significantly on economic growth in the short term as well as in the long term. The causality test of Breitung and schreiber indicates a one-way long-run causal relationship ranging from exports to gross domestic product (GDP). All those results show that exports are a source of Ivorian economic growth.

scholarly journals The impacts of public investment on private investment and economic growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Canh Thi Nguyen ◽  
Lua Thi Trinh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Sector ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess both short and long-term influences of public investment on economic growth and test the hypothesis that whether public investment promotes or demotes private investment in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the approach of autoregressive distributed lag model and Vietnam’s macro data in the period of 1990-2016, to evaluate the short and long-term effects of public investment on economic growth and private investment. The model evaluates the impact of public investment on economic growth and private investment based on the neoclassical theories. The public investment which strongly affects economic growth is also reflected by aggregate supply and demand. Public investment directly impacts aggregate demand as a government expenditure and aggregate supply as a production function (capital factor). Findings The results from this research indicate that public investment in Vietnam in the past period does affect economic growth in the pattern of an inverted-U shape as of Barro (1990), with positive effects mostly occurring from the second year and negative effects of constraining long-term growth. Meanwhile, investment from the private sector, state-owned enterprises, and FDI has positive effects on short-term economic growth and state-owned capital stock has positive impacts on economic growth in both the short and long run. The estimated influence of public investment on private investment also shows a similar inverted-U shape in which public investment have crowding-in private investment short-term but crowding-out in the long run. Practical implications The empirical findings in this study can be used for conducting a more efficient policy in restructuring the state sector investment in Vietnam. Originality/value The main contributions in this study are: to evaluate the impacts of public investment on economic growth and private investment, the authors extracted public investment in infrastructure from aggregate investment of state sector (as previous studies used); the authors also uses state-owned capital stock variable including cumulative public investment and state-owned enterprises investment suggesting that this could control for the different orders of integration between the stock and flow variable and improve the experimental characteristics of the equation to a higher degree.

scholarly journals HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS KEMISKINAN, TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI PROVINSI SULAWESI SELATAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-23
Author(s):  
Akhmad Akhmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Economic development basically aims to increase economic growth, reduce poverty and unemployment. Therefore the research aims to find out the causal relationship between economic growth, unemployment and poverty in the Southern Province. This research used panel data of 24 districts / cities in South Sulawesi Province during 2007 to 2018, which was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency. Data were then analyzed using Vector Autoregression analysis. The results showed that shocks to economic growth have an impact on reducing unemployment and poverty rates both short and long term. Meanwhile shocks to unemployment, have an impact on increasing poverty rates in the short and long term, and have an impact on declining economic growth in the short term, but slowly economic growth returns to the balance point. Furthermore, the shock to poverty also has an impact on increasing unemployment in the short term, but slowly leads to a point of convergence in the long run. It is better to make economic growth decrease in the short term, but slowly towards the point of balance in the long run.

scholarly journals PENGARUH INDEKS PERSEPSI KORUPSI, KEBIJAKAN MONETER DAN FISKAL TERHADAP FUNDAMENTAL EKONOMI MAKRO DI INDONESIA

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Fira Elfrida ◽  
Dian Oktaviani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Corruption Perception Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Corruption Perception

<em>The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of the Corruption Perception Index (CPI), monetary and fiscal policies on macroeconomic fundamentals in Indonesia with the period 2005 - 2013. The variables used in this study include economic growth and inflation as dependent variables, Corruption Perception Index (GPA), BI Rate, statutory reserve requirements, tax revenues, subsidies, capital expenditure and goods expenditure as unbounded (free) variables. The analysis method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach by estimating the static and dynamic models to determine the long-term balance and short-term balance. The results of this study indicate that in the short-term economic growth is significantly influenced by tax and subsidy revenues which are part of the fiscal policy component, while in the long run are significantly influenced by the BI Rate and minimum statutory demand deposits which are monetary policy instruments. And in the short run inflation is significantly influenced by the BI Rate, while in the long term the Corruption Perception Index (CPI), monetary and fiscal policies do not significantly affect inflation</em>

scholarly journals INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 401
Author(s):  
Feri Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

<p align="center"><strong><em>ABSTRACT</em></strong></p><p><em>This study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation.</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p align="center"><strong><em>ABSTRACT</em></strong></p><p><em>Penelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate  terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model  (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.</em><em></em></p><p align="right"> </p>

scholarly journals The Impacts of Human Resources and Foreign Direct Investments to Vietnam’s Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Nguyen Van Huong ◽  
Dang Quy Duong ◽  
Do Thi Thu Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Opposite Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

Research on human resources, foreign direct investment and economic development are important issues in assessing the effectiveness of employment as well as attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) in the economy. In this study, the author analyzes the impact of human resource factors and FDI on economic growth in Vietnam from 1990 to 2017. By regression analysis based on the ARDL model, the result shows FDI has only a positive effect on economic growth in the short term but has the opposite effect in the long term. At the same time, unemployment rates have the opposite effect on economic growth in the short term. Average life expectancy does not affect economic growth in both the short and long term. From this result, the author also offers some suggestions for economic development in both the short and long term.

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