scholarly journals The importance of COVID-19 testing to assess socioeconomic fatality drivers and true case fatality rate. Facing the pandemic or walking in the dark?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Isabel Ibarra-Armenta ◽  
Moises Alejandro Alarcon-Osuna
Keyword(s):  
Cross Section ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Population Characteristics ◽  
Panel Data Models ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Health Infrastructure ◽  
Developed Nations

Abstract Up to date, European and other developed countries became the centre of the pandemic. While the COVID-19 spread to developing countries and less developed regions, seems to be still very low. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) differs a lot among countries, genetics, health systems, population characteristics as well as public health and social measures (lockdown measures) are believed to be the determinants of such diversity. Through an Ordinal Probit, Cross Section and Panel data models for 71 countries, it is shown that the nations applying more tests per million inhabitants are also those reporting more cases and deaths, yet greater testing helped to reduce CFR; while, health infrastructure and population health indicators could not be confirmed as drivers for CFR. The Stringency Index showed a negative correlation with the number of deaths. Our main finding is that, the pandemic concentration on developed nations is highly related with their ability and resources for tracking the pandemic. Three additional conclusions are drawn: first, the true CFR and its drivers at national levels cannot be estimated without increasing the number of tests per million inhabitants; second, there is an under-identification of cases and/or deaths and the countries applying more tests, are most clearly identifying the reality of the pandemic, while countries with less cases, are actually still walking in the dark; third lockdown measures have been effective at reducing the number of deaths.

scholarly journals The importance of COVID-19 testing to assess socioeconomic fatality drivers and true case fatality rate. Facing the pandemic or walking in the dark?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Isabel Ibarra-Armenta ◽  
Moises Alejandro Alarcon-Osuna
Keyword(s):  
Cross Section ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Population Characteristics ◽  
Panel Data Models ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Health Infrastructure ◽  
Developed Nations

Abstract Up to date, European and other developed countries became the centre of the pandemic. While the COVID-19 spread to developing countries and less developed regions, seems to be still very low. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) differs a lot among countries, genetics, health systems, population characteristics as well as public health and social measures (lockdown measures) are believed to be the determinants of such diversity. Through an Ordinal Probit, Cross Section and Panel data models for 71 countries, it is shown that the nations applying more tests per million inhabitants are also those reporting more cases and deaths, yet greater testing helped to reduce CFR; while, health infrastructure and population health indicators could not be confirmed as drivers for CFR. The Stringency Index showed a negative correlation with the number of deaths. Our main finding is that, the pandemic concentration on developed nations is highly related with their ability and resources for tracking the pandemic. Three additional conclusions are drawn: first, the true CFR and its drivers at national levels cannot be estimated without increasing the number of tests per million inhabitants; second, there is an under-identification of cases and/or deaths and the countries applying more tests, are most clearly identifying the reality of the pandemic, while countries with less cases, are actually still walking in the dark; third lockdown measures have been effective at reducing the number of deaths.

Mortality of tetanus at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Nigeria

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 178-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
F I Ojini ◽  
M A Danesi
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Teaching Hospital ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
University Teaching ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Medical Wards

Records of 349 tetanus patients, aged 10 years and above, admitted to the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Nigeria, between 1990 and 1999 were reviewed. The male:female ratio was 1.98:1, and the ages were between 10 and 88 years, with a mean age of 29.8 years. The overall case fatality rate (CFR) of tetanus was 36.96% (33.19% for men and 44.44% for women). The CFR is similar to that previously reported in the hospital, but higher than that reported from Europe and North America. The lowest CFR was in the 10-19-year age group, and there was a trend towards increasing CFR with increasing age. Tetanus patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) had a significantly higher CFR than those in the medical wards. Unlike in developed countries, where management of tetanus in ICU has resulted in a decrease in CFR, the CFR of tetanus at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital has not significantly reduced over the years.

scholarly journals Prevalence and Epidemiological Trends in Mortality Due to COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dema A. Alissa ◽  
Wejdan Aburas ◽  
Hajar Y. Almudaiheem ◽  
Zohair Al Aseri ◽  
Fahad Alrabiah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Data Registry ◽  
Epidemiological Trends

Abstract Background: Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) created a major public health emergency and an international concern. It is an infectious respiratory illness caused by acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The international mortality rates due to COVID-19 reached 2,748,763 on March 24, 2021. We describe the prevalence, case fatality rate, and epidemiological trends of COVID-19 mortality in Saudi Arabia in this paper.Method: A systematic approach of evaluating COVID-19 related mortalities was established in Saudi Arabia. A scientific committee that evaluated all reported cases with suspicious or confirmed COVID-19 disease using a standardized electronic form. A data registry of all deaths with all clinical parameters was built based on active reporting from all healthcare facilities in Saudi Arabia. Analysis of data using national and regional crude case fatality rate (cCFR) and death per 100,000 population was carried. Descriptive analysis of age, gender, nationality, and comorbidities. Mortality trend was plotted per week and compared to international figures.Results: The total reported number of deaths between March 23rd until April 9, 2021 was 6,737. cCFR was reported as 1.70%, and death per 100,000 population was reported as 19.24 which compared favourably to figures reported by several developed countries. Highest percentages of deaths were among individuals aged between 60-69 years, males (74%), individuals with diabetes (60%), and Hypertension (50%). Conclusion: Case fatality rate and death per 100,000 population in Saudi Arabia is among the lowest in the world due to multiple factors. Several comorbidities have been identified namely diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and cardiac arrhythmias.

scholarly journals Burden of COVID-19 pandemic in India: Perspectives from Health Infrastructure

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harihar Sahoo ◽  
Chaitali Mandal ◽  
Suyash Mishra ◽  
Snigdha Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
High Throughput ◽  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Testing Machine ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
List Type ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Health Infrastructure ◽  
Positive Rate

AbstractThe coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading rapidly across the country but India’s testing regime is far from the global standards. It is important to identify the states where testing needs expansion and the magnitudes of active COVID cases are higher focusing on current health infrastructure to meet the pandemic. The data on COVID-19 was extracted from the Application Programming Interface. Test positive rate, test per confirmed case, recovery rate, case fatality rate, and percent distribution of active cases were computed. Availability of hospitals, hospital beds, intensive care unit and ventilators per lakh population was also computed by public and private sector. The result revealed that, Maharashtra constitutes more than one-third positive cases in the country. More than a quarter of the active cases in India belonged to the Mumbai district of Maharashtra, followed by the Chennai district (9.4%) and Ahmedabad district (9.1%). Further, about 40 percent of the active cases in India belonged to the 11 districts of Maharashtra. The increased test positive rate in Maharashtra and Gujarat to almost double in last one month is a concern. In order to bring the states and the country in right track, the test positive rate need to be brought down to below 2 percent. The procurement of higher number of high throughput machine, the Cobas 6800 testing machine, is need of the hour. Only few states have adequate health infrastructure. The priority should be the laid on expansion of more laboratories and hospitals, storage of PPE kit, testing kit, and indigenously developed vaccines.HighlightsMaharashtra is having the highest number of positive cases followed by Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. Maharashtra constitutes more than one-third positive cases in the country, but the test per confirmed cases (8) is much lower than the other states.More than a quarter of the active cases in India belonged to the Mumbai district (26.1%) of Maharashtra, followed by the Chennai district (9.4%) and Ahmedabad district (9.1%). Further, about 40 percent of the active cases in India belonged to the 11 districts of Maharashtra.The test positive rate is higher in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi is a concern.The recovery rate in India increased substantially by 26.5 percent point from 11.9 percent on April 14 to 38.4 percent on May 17, 2020.The case fatality rate of Covid-19 in India declined by 0.2 percent from 3.4 percent on April 14 to 3.2 percent on May 17 in India.The number of Dedicated Covid Hospitals is not sufficient in India.The available ventilators in the country will deficit in near future to cater to a growing number of active Covid-19 patients and the burden of other communicable and non-communicable diseases.India has only 569 testing laboratories (396 govt. and 173 private) against its 1.35 billion population. The procurement of higher number of high throughput machine, the Cobas 6800 testing machine, is need of the hour.

scholarly journals Early trends of socio-economic and health indicators influencing case fatality rate of COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 90 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahir Asfahan ◽  
Aneesa Shahul ◽  
Gopal Chawla ◽  
Naveen Dutt ◽  
Ram Niwas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Medical Doctors ◽  
Selection Of Variables ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

Coronavirus disease 2019, i.e. COVID-19, started as an outbreak in a district of China and has engulfed the world in a matter of 3 months. It is posing a serious health and economic challenge worldwide. However, case fatality rates (CFRs) have varied amongst various countries ranging from 0 to 8.91%. We have evaluated the effect of selected socio-economic and health indicators to explain this variation in CFR. Countries reporting a minimum of 50 cases as on 14th March 2020, were selected for this analysis. Data about the socio-economic indicators of each country was accessed from the World bank database and data about the health indicators were accessed from the World Health Organisation (WHO) database. Various socioeconomic indicators and health indicators were selected for this analysis. After selecting from univariate analysis, the indicators with the maximum correlation were used to build a model using multiple variable linear regression with a forward selection of variables and using adjusted R-squared score as the metric. We found univariate regression results were significant for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita, POD 30/70 (Probability Of Dying Between Age 30 And Exact Age 70 From Any of Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, Diabetes or Chronic Respiratory Disease), HCI (Human Capital Index), GNI(Gross National Income) per capita, life expectancy, medical doctors per 10000 population, as these parameters negatively corelated with CFR (rho = -0.48 to -0.38 , p<0.05). Case fatality rate was regressed using ordinary least squares (OLS) against the socio-economic and health indicators. The indicators in the final model were GDP per capita, POD 30/70, HCI, life expectancy, medical doctors per 10,000, median age, current health expenditure per capita, number of confirmed cases and population in millions. The adjusted R-squared score was 0.306. Developing countries with a poor economy are especially vulnerable in terms of COVID-19 mortality and underscore the need to have a global policy to deal with this on-going pandemic. These trends largely confirm that the toll from COVID-19 will be worse in countries ill-equipped to deal with it. These analyses of epidemiological data are need of time as apart from increasing situational awareness, it guides us in taking informed interventions and helps policy-making to tackle this pandemic.

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

scholarly journals Author Correction: Calcium channel blocker amlodipine besylate therapy is associated with reduced case fatality rate of COVID-19 patients with hypertension

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei-Ke Zhang ◽  
Yuan Sun ◽  
Haolong Zeng ◽  
Qingxing Wang ◽  
Xiaming Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Calcium Channel ◽  
Calcium Channel Blocker ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Channel Blocker ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Amlodipine Besylate

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41421-021-00267-0

scholarly journals Early determination of case fatality rate of COVID-19 pandemic during the ongoing Yemeni armed conflict

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Abdulla Salem Bin Ghouth ◽  
Ali Ahmed Al-Waleedi ◽  
Marhami Fahriani ◽  
Firzan Nainu ◽  
Harapan Harapan
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mechanical Ventilators ◽  
Poor Outcomes

Abstract Objectives: To determine the case-fatality rate (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its associated determinants in order to understand the true magnitude of the problem during ongoing conflict in Yemen. Methods: The CFR among confirmed COVID-19 cases in Yemen was calculated. The data was retrieved from national COVID-19 surveillance between April 10, when the first COVID-19 case reported, and May 31, 2020. Results: A total of 419 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported. There were 14.1% and 5.7% of cases who required intensive care and mechanical ventilators, respectively. Out of total cases, 95 deaths were reported, giving CFR of 22.6% which is much higher compared to other countries. CFR was significantly higher among elderly compared to young adults and varied between governorates. Mortality was associated with preexisting hypertension (OR: 2.30; 95%CI: 1.58, 3.54) and diabetes (OR: 1.68; 95%CI: 1.08, 2.61). Conclusions: Elderly and those with comorbidities, in particular hypertension and diabetes, have higher risk for poor outcomes and therefore should receive more attention in the clinical setting. Preventive measures should also be prioritized to protect those groups in order to reduce the severe cases and deaths-associated COVID-19 in armed-conflict.

scholarly journals Regional Variability in COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in Canada, February–December 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1839
Author(s):  
Eunha Shim
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Older Individuals ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Provincial Level ◽  
Mortality Burden

A total of 475,214 COVID-19 cases, including 13,659 deaths, had been recorded in Canada as of 15 December 2020. The daily reports of confirmed cases and deaths in Canada prior to 15 December 2020 were obtained from publicly available sources and used to examine regional variations in case fatality rate (CFR). Based on a factor of underestimation and the duration of time from symptom onset to death, the time-delay adjusted CFR for COVID-19 was estimated in the four most affected provinces (Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia) and nationwide. The model-based adjusted CFR was higher than the crude CFR throughout the pandemic, primarily owing to the incorporation in our estimation of the delay between case reports and deaths. The adjusted CFR in Canada was estimated to be 3.36% nationwide. At the provincial level, the adjusted CFR was the highest in Quebec (5.13%)—where the proportion of deaths among older individuals was also the highest among the four provinces—followed by Ontario (3.17%), British Columbia (1.97%), and Alberta (1.13%). Provincial-level variations in CFR were considerable, suggesting that public health interventions focused on densely populated areas and elderly individuals can ameliorate the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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