scholarly journals Early trends of socio-economic and health indicators influencing case fatality rate of COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 90 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahir Asfahan ◽  
Aneesa Shahul ◽  
Gopal Chawla ◽  
Naveen Dutt ◽  
Ram Niwas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Medical Doctors ◽  
Selection Of Variables ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

Coronavirus disease 2019, i.e. COVID-19, started as an outbreak in a district of China and has engulfed the world in a matter of 3 months. It is posing a serious health and economic challenge worldwide. However, case fatality rates (CFRs) have varied amongst various countries ranging from 0 to 8.91%. We have evaluated the effect of selected socio-economic and health indicators to explain this variation in CFR. Countries reporting a minimum of 50 cases as on 14th March 2020, were selected for this analysis. Data about the socio-economic indicators of each country was accessed from the World bank database and data about the health indicators were accessed from the World Health Organisation (WHO) database. Various socioeconomic indicators and health indicators were selected for this analysis. After selecting from univariate analysis, the indicators with the maximum correlation were used to build a model using multiple variable linear regression with a forward selection of variables and using adjusted R-squared score as the metric. We found univariate regression results were significant for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita, POD 30/70 (Probability Of Dying Between Age 30 And Exact Age 70 From Any of Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, Diabetes or Chronic Respiratory Disease), HCI (Human Capital Index), GNI(Gross National Income) per capita, life expectancy, medical doctors per 10000 population, as these parameters negatively corelated with CFR (rho = -0.48 to -0.38 , p<0.05). Case fatality rate was regressed using ordinary least squares (OLS) against the socio-economic and health indicators. The indicators in the final model were GDP per capita, POD 30/70, HCI, life expectancy, medical doctors per 10,000, median age, current health expenditure per capita, number of confirmed cases and population in millions. The adjusted R-squared score was 0.306. Developing countries with a poor economy are especially vulnerable in terms of COVID-19 mortality and underscore the need to have a global policy to deal with this on-going pandemic. These trends largely confirm that the toll from COVID-19 will be worse in countries ill-equipped to deal with it. These analyses of epidemiological data are need of time as apart from increasing situational awareness, it guides us in taking informed interventions and helps policy-making to tackle this pandemic.

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

scholarly journals Mortality Rate and Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Around The World: An Adjusted Estimation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moslem Taheri Soodejani ◽  
Ali Akbar Haghdoost ◽  
Mohammad Hassan Lotfi ◽  
Marzieh Mahmudimanesh ◽  
Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Health Status ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Total Expenditure ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Prevalence Of Diabetes Mellitus

Abstract Background: The present study is designed to predict the global adjusted values for mortality rate and case fatality rate of COVID-19 around the world. Methods: This research was conducted at the ecological level using data from 100 countries which were chosen randomly. The adjusted values were predicted using beta regression considering predictive factors such as total expenditure on health per capita, expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP, life expectancy and the percentage of the population aged over 65 years, hospital beds (per 1000 population), physicians (per 1000 population), nurses (per 1000 population), prevalence of smoking, prevalence of diabetes mellitus, and number of confirmed tests in each country. In the end, applying Monte Carlo simulation, the adjusted values of mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated.Results: The results of this study showed that two factors including percentage of population ages 65 and above (P=0.03) and Total expenditure on health as % of GDP (P = 0.04) had a statistically significant relationship with the case fatality rate. Moreover, there was a statistically significant relationship between the mortality rate and life expectancy (P = 0.02), total expenditure on health per capita (P < 0.001), nurses (Per 1000 Population) (P=0.04), and the prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus (P=0.04). The mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated to be 0.000001 and 0.026, respectively.Conclusion: It seems that what can cause global concern is not the case fatality rate of the disease, but its mortality rate, which is directly related to the health status of a community. The worse the health status of a community, the greater the number of infected people likely to be there, that ultimately increases the mortality rate of the disease in the community.

scholarly journals A Case of Covid-19 Patient Presenting with Gastrointestinal-Specific Symptoms in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-157
Author(s):  
Daniel Martin Simadibrata ◽  
Cleopas Martin Rumende ◽  
Rahmad Mulyadi ◽  
Marcellus Simadibrata
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Atypical Presentations ◽  
Specific Symptoms

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging infectious disease officially declared as a pandemic on 11 March 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Indonesia’s COVID-19 case fatality rate remain consistently high, approximately twice the global case fatality rate available. Patients typically present with fever, dry cough and dyspnea. However, there were reports of atypical COVID-19 symptoms such as myalgia, fatigue, diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting. These atypical presentations were suggested to indicate a more severe COVID-19. Here, we present a case of COVID-19 patient presenting with gastrointestinal-specific symptoms in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of Diphtheria in Yemen, 2017-2018: Surveillance Data Analysis (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suaad Ameen Moghalles ◽  
Basher Ahmed Aboasba ◽  
Mohammed Abdullah Alamad ◽  
Yousef Saleh Khader
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Probable Case ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

BACKGROUND As a consequence of war and the collapse of the health system in Yemen, which prevented many people from accessing health facilities to obtain primary health care, vaccination coverage was affected, leading to a deadly diphtheria epidemic at the end of 2017. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to describe the epidemiology of diphtheria in Yemen and determine its incidence and case fatality rate. METHODS Data were obtained from the diphtheria surveillance program 2017-2018, using case definitions of the World Health Organization. A probable case was defined as a case involving a person having laryngitis, pharyngitis, or tonsillitis and an adherent membrane of the tonsils, pharynx, and/or nose. A confirmed case was defined as a probable case that was laboratory confirmed or linked epidemiologically to a laboratory-confirmed case. Data from the Central Statistical Organization was used to calculate the incidence per 100,000 population. A <i>P</i> value &lt;.05 was considered significant. RESULTS A total of 2243 cases were reported during the period between July 2017 and August 2018. About 49% (1090/2243, 48.6%) of the cases were males. About 44% (978/2243, 43.6%) of the cases involved children aged 5 to 15 years. Respiratory tract infection was the predominant symptom (2044/2243, 91.1%), followed by pseudomembrane (1822/2243, 81.2%). Based on the vaccination status, the percentages of partially vaccinated, vaccinated, unvaccinated, and unknown status patients were 6.6% (148/2243), 30.8% (690/2243), 48.6% (10902243), and 14.0% (315/2243), respectively. The overall incidence of diphtheria was 8 per 100,000 population. The highest incidence was among the age group &lt;15 years (11 per 100,000 population), and the lowest incidence was among the age group ≥15 years (5 per 100,000 population). The overall case fatality rate among all age groups was 5%, and it was higher (10%) in the age group &lt;5 years. Five governorates that were difficult to access (Raymah, Abyan, Sa'ada, Lahj, and Al Jawf) had a very high case fatality rate (22%). CONCLUSIONS Diphtheria affected a large number of people in Yemen in 2017-2018. The majority of patients were partially or not vaccinated. Children aged ≤15 years were more affected, with higher fatality among children aged &lt;5 years. Five governorates that were difficult to access had a case fatality rate twice that of the World Health Organization estimate (5%-10%). To control the diphtheria epidemic in Yemen, it is recommended to increase routine vaccination coverage and booster immunizations, increase public health awareness toward diphtheria, and strengthen the surveillance system for early detection and immediate response.

scholarly journals COVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2: a Brief Review on the Origins, Pathogenesis and Epidemiology

2021 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Anamaria Ioana PAȘTIU ◽  
Vlad COCOSTÎRC ◽  
Carmen TURCU ◽  
Felix LUCACI ◽  
Dana Liana PUSTA
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Professional ◽  
General Population ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Human Coronavirus ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

December 2019 was marked by the emergence of a novel human coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, which causes a variety of symptoms, commonly known as COVID-19. The high contagiousness, rapid worldwide spread and case fatality rate have led to a sharp increase in number of infected persons and related deaths, which subsequently resulted in the recognition of the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. SARS-CoV-2 is an ongoing challenge not only for the healthcare professional but also for the general population. The aim of this literature review is to summarize the currently available data on COVID-19 regarding the origins, pathogenesis and epidemiology.

scholarly journals Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manisha Mandal ◽  
Shyamapada Mandal
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Linear Regression Model ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Model Analysis ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Statistical Regression ◽  
The World

Abstract There is a huge loss of lives worldwide in relation to COVID-19 pandemic, the primary epicentre of which is China, where the causative agent of the disease called SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) was first emerged in December 2019. In view of this the severity, in terms of case fatality rate (CFR), is essential to explore for COVID-19. Data of ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic have been retrieved from publicly accessible website of the WHO (World Health Organization), and were processed for the estimation of global (both including and excluding China) CFRs of COVID-19. The CFRs were explored following the naive estimates, 14-day delay estimates, and linear regression model analysis, for the period between January 25, 2020 and April 25, 2020, on weekly basis. To explore the current situation, in terms of global CFR, data for the next 6 weeks (May 2, 2020 through June 6, 2020), were processed by naive and linear regression model analysis. Mean CFRs, in the naive estimates, were 4.59% (95% CI: 3.59 – 5.59) for the world including China, and 3.62% (95% CI: 2.01 – 5.23) for the world excluding China. The 14-day delay estimates of CFRs were 15.6% (95% CI: 7.18 – 24.02) globally, and 21.65% (95% CI: 11.15 – 32.15) in countries outside China. Following statistical model analysis, the global (both including and excluding China) CFRs were 6.81%, by naive estimates, and ~13%, by 14-day delay estimates. The global CFR of COVID-19 during May 2, 2020 to June 6, 2020, ranged 5.9 – 7.04% (mean: 6.58%; 95% CI: 6.11 – 7.03), by naive estimates, and by statistical regression analysis the CFR was 4.78%. The CFR as explored in the current study might help estimate the need of up-to-date hospital supplies and other mitigation measures for COVID-19 ongoing pandemic.

scholarly journals Managing older adults’ fear of coronavirus disease: A new role for social work practice

2020 ◽  
pp. 147332502097329
Author(s):  
Hamed Mortazavi
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Social Work Practice ◽  
World Health ◽  
National Committee ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

As the number of patients infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (nCOVID-19) increases, the number of deaths has also been increasing. According to World Health Organization (WHO), as of 4 October 2020, 34,804,348 cases had tested positive for nCOVID-19 globally, which among them, 1,030,738 confirmed deaths had occurred, equivalent to a case-fatality rate of 2.96%. However, in comparison with global statistics, the incidence and mortality of the nCOVID-19 infection are higher in Iran. As reported by the National Committee on COVID-19 Epidemiology of Ministry of Health of Iran, the total number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection has reached 468,119, of which 26,746 have died, equivalent to a case-fatality rate of 5.71%. Currently, there is solid evidence that older adults are at a higher risk of severe disease following infection from COVID-19.

scholarly journals Safety and Efficacy of Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine in SARS-CoV-2 Infection

2021 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 1718-1722
Author(s):  
Alberto Boretti
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Late Infection ◽  
Western Countries ◽  
Asymptomatic Patients ◽  
Overwhelming Evidence ◽  
Health Organization

This work summarizes the available evidence of the use of chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine (CQ/HCQ) in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Most of the published works indicate CQ/HCQ is likely effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection, almost 100% in prophylaxis and mild-medium severity cases and 60% in late infection cases. The percentage of positive works is larger if those works conducted under a probable conflict of interest are excluded from the list. Despite this overwhelming evidence from independent studies, the use of CQ/HCQ is currently limited or prevented in many western countries, based on a very singular examination of the science. The case of a work published in late May 2020, despite being openly defective and then retracted, prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to ban the use of CQ/HCQ. This position has not yet rectified, thanks to the results of the not less questionable RECOVERY trial, where very sick patients were administered more than double the dose, over more than double the time, recommended for asymptomatic patients in current protocols of other countries, where CQ/HCQ are used for asymptomatic and mild but not severe pneumonia critically ill patients. While the case fatality rate does not depend only on therapies, it is finally shown based on the number of cases and fatalities per million and the case fatality rate as the western countries enforcing the ban on CQ/HCQ did not perform better, but much worse, than other countries, also because of therapies.

scholarly journals 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia: an unusual lung ultrasound presentation.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Letizia Consoli ◽  
Vittorio Bendotti ◽  
Sara Cicchinelli ◽  
Federico Gaioni ◽  
Paola Prandolini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Lung Ultrasound ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Ground Glass Opacity ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Chest Computed Tomography ◽  
Ultrasound Findings ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) was first reported in Wuhan, China, and rapidly spread around the world, leading to an international emerging public health emergency. As reported from Chinese experiences, approximately 20% of patients had a severe course, requiring intensive care, with an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%. In diagnosis, chest computed tomography most commonly showed ground-glass opacity with or without consolidative patterns.Herein we report a case of a patient affected by COVID-19 pneumonia referred in the emergency department of our institution on 4 April 2020 with peculiar lung ultrasound findings.

Acute severe malnutrition treatment outcomes in children ages 6–59 months admitted to Singa Hospital, Sudan

2020 ◽  
Vol 114 (8) ◽  
pp. 612-617
Author(s):  
Jalal Ali Bilal ◽  
Hatim G Eltahir ◽  
Abdullah Al-Nafeesah ◽  
Osama Al-Wutayd ◽  
Ishag Adam
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Intestinal Parasites ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Clinical Information ◽  
Acute Malnutrition ◽  
World Health ◽  
Severe Malnutrition ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Z Scores ◽  
Acute Severe Malnutrition

Abstract Background Acute malnutrition threatens the lives of 50.5 million children &lt;5 y of age. Consequences of malnutrition include death, among other short-term sequelae. This study was conducted from April to October 2018 to determine the outcomes of children 6–59 months of age with acute severe malnutrition admitted to Singa Hospital in central Sudan. Methods Clinical information for children with a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) &lt;115 mm were collected. We measured children's weight and height and calculated weight-for-height z-scores. Treatment was offered according to World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Outcomes were recorded as recovered, discharged against medical advice or died. Results This study included 376 malnourished children. The median age was 18 months (interquartile range [IQR] 12−24). The male:female ratio was 1:1. Among children with weight-for-height Z-scores of −4 and −3, 103 (27.3%) had oedematous malnutrition. There were 131 (34.8%) children with malaria parasites, 33 (8.7%) with pyuria and 24 (6.3%) with intestinal parasites. The recovery rate was 89.1%. The case fatality rate was 3.7%. Mortality was significantly increased with diarrhoea and dermatoses. There were no significant differences in the median of age (17.5 months [IQR 6−24] vs 18 [6−24], p = 0.595), MUAC (110 mm [IQR 104–111] vs 110 [100–111], p = 0.741) or sex (p = 0.991) between children who died and those who recovered. Conclusions The case fatality rate was 3.7% and it was associated with diarrhoea and dermatoses.

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