scholarly journals A new tool to simulate ground shaking and earthquake losses

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando López Hidalgo ◽  
Manuel Navarro ◽  
Sergio Molina
Keyword(s):  
Source Parameters ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Damage Scenarios ◽  
Topographic Slope ◽  
Post Process ◽  
Earthquake Losses ◽  
Capacity Spectrum ◽  
Earthquake Source Parameters ◽  
Observed Damage

Abstract The main purpose of SISMOTOOL suite is Planning and Management of Seismic Emergencies face to a future earthquake. This tool is written in ARCGIS software executing a fast and efficient determination of the estimated damage scenarios (pre-process) and a correlation with the observed damage results (post-process). First of all, the tool allows to select the earthquake source parameters through a defined database; moreover, several attenuation laws can be chosen and they can be combined according to the study area features. In addition, the local site effects are characterized from Vs30 values, which have been achieved by: i) topographic slope as a proxy obtained from Digital Elevation Model; ii) considering Vs30 values acquired from active and/or passive empirical methods; iii) a combination of both procedures through empirical local correlation laws. In the second place, the elements exposed to risk are incorporated by an automatic extraction from the cadastral database after inputs has been refined. Thirdly, vulnerability and estimated losses can be determined either empirically (EMS98 scale and Vulnerability Index, Iv) or analytically (Capacity spectrum). Additionally, a vulnerability modifier is implemented to account soil-structure resonance. Finally, SISMOTOOL quantifies the epistemic uncertainties in the input parameters using a logic tree. Last, but not least, SISMOTOOL results have been validated through a representative seismic scenario: the 1910 Adra earthquake (southern Spain) with moment magnitude (Mw) 6.3 and macroseismic intensity VIII (EMS98 scale) proves the reliability of SISMOTOOL program.

scholarly journals Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 2245-2270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ario Muhammad ◽  
Katsuichiro Goda ◽  
Nicholas A. Alexander ◽  
Widjo Kongko ◽  
Abdul Muhari
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Historical Event ◽  
Tsunami Simulation ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Earthquake Source Parameters ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

scholarly journals Fault source investigation of the 6 December 2016 MwMw 6.5 Pidie Jaya, Indonesia, earthquake based on GPS and its implications of the geological survey result

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 405-412
Author(s):  
Endra Gunawan ◽  
Takuya Nishimura ◽  
Susilo Susilo ◽  
Sri Widiyantoro ◽  
Nanang T. Puspito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Secondary Effects ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Morphological Attributes ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
The North ◽  
Coulomb Failure ◽  
North And South ◽  
Fault Source

AbstractOn 6 December 2016 at 22:03 UTC, a devastating magnitude 6-class strike-slip earthquake occurred along an unidentified and unmapped fault in Pidie Jaya, northern Sumatra. We analysed the possible fault using continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) observation available in the region. In our investigation, we searched for the fault source parameters of the north- and south-dipping left-lateral faults and the west- and east-dipping right-lateral faults. We identified that the fault responsible for the earthquake was located offshore, with a southwest-northeast direction. We also computed the Coulomb failure stress and compared the result with the distribution of the aftershocks. In this study, we demonstrated that the result of the geological field survey conducted soon after the mainshock was attributed to the secondary effects of ground shaking and near-surface deformation, and not surface faulting. The newly identified offshore fault proposed by this study calls for further investigation of the corresponding submarine morphological attributes in this particular region.

scholarly journals Exceedance of design actions in epicentral areas: insights from the ShakeMap envelopes for the 2016–2017 central Italy sequence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iunio Iervolino ◽  
Pasquale Cito ◽  
Chiara Felicetta ◽  
Giovanni Lanzano ◽  
Antonio Vitale
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Structural Engineering ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Civil Defense ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Seismic Sequence ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Motion Effect ◽  
Observed Damage

AbstractShakeMap is the tool to evaluate the ground motion effect of earthquakes in vast areas. It is useful to delimit the zones where the shaking is expected to have been most significant, for civil defense rapid response. From the earthquake engineering point of view, it can be used to infer the seismic actions on the built environment to calibrate vulnerability models or to define the reconstruction policies based on observed damage vs shaking. In the case of long-lasting seismic sequences, it can be useful to develop ShakeMap envelopes, that is, maps of the largest ground intensity among those from the ShakeMap of (selected) events of a seismic sequence, to delimit areas where the effects of the whole sequence have been of structural engineering relevance. This study introduces ShakeMap envelopes and discusses them for the central Italy 2016–2017 seismic sequence. The specific goals of the study are: (i) to compare the envelopes and the ShakeMap of the main events of the sequence to make the case for sequence-based maps; (ii) to quantify the exceedance of design seismic actions based on the envelopes; (iii) to make envelopes available for further studies and the reconstruction planning; (iv) to gather insights on the (repeated) exceedance of design seismic actions at some sites. Results, which include considerations of uncertainty in ShakeMap, show that the sequence caused exceedance of design hazard in thousands of square kilometers. The most relevant effects of the sequence are, as expected, due to the mainshock, yet seismic actions larger than those enforced by the code for structural design are found also around the epicenters of the smaller magnitude events. At some locations, the succession of ground-shaking that has excited structures, provides insights on structural damage accumulation that has likely taken place; something that is not accounted for explicitly in modern seismic design. The envelopes developed are available as supplemental material.

scholarly journals Mechanics-based fragility curves for Italian residential URM buildings

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Donà ◽  
Pietro Carpanese ◽  
Veronica Follador ◽  
Luca Sbrogiò ◽  
Francesca da Porto
Keyword(s):  
Reference Model ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
National Level ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Damage Scenarios ◽  
Complex Evaluation ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
2009 L’Aquila Earthquake ◽  
Damage States ◽  
Observed Damage

Abstract Seismic risk assessment at the territorial level is now widely recognised as essential for countries with intense seismic activity, such as Italy. Academia is called to give its contribution in order to synergically deepen the knowledge about the various components of this risk, starting from the complex evaluation of vulnerability of the built heritage. In line with this, a mechanics-based seismic fragility model for Italian residential masonry buildings was developed and presented in this paper. This model is based on the classification of the building stock in macro-typologies, defined by age of construction and number of storeys, which being information available at national level, allow simulating damage scenarios and carrying out risk analyses on a territorial scale. The model is developed on the fragility of over 500 buildings, sampled according to national representativeness criteria and analysed through the Vulnus_4.0 software. The calculated fragility functions were extended on the basis of a reference model available in the literature, which provides generic fragilities for the EMS98 vulnerability classes, thus obtaining a fragility model defined on the five EMS98 damage states. Lastly, to assess the reliability of the proposed model, this was used to simulate damage scenarios due to the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. Overall, the comparison between model results and observed damage showed a good fit, proving the model effectiveness.

Strain to Ground Motion Conversion of DAS Data for Earthquake Magnitude and Stress Drop Determination

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Itzhak Lior ◽  
Anthony Sladen ◽  
Diego Mercerat ◽  
Jean-Paul Ampuero ◽  
Diane Rivet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Stress Drop ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning ◽  
Body Waves ◽  
Ocean Bottom ◽  
Correlated Noise ◽  
S Wave ◽  
Earthquake Source Parameters

<p>The use of Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) presents unique advantages for earthquake monitoring compared with standard seismic networks: spatially dense measurements adapted for harsh environments and designed for remote operation. However, the ability to determine earthquake source parameters using DAS is yet to be fully established. In particular, resolving the magnitude and stress drop, is a fundamental objective for seismic monitoring and earthquake early warning. To apply existing methods for source parameter estimation to DAS signals, they must first be converted from strain to ground motions. This conversion can be achieved using the waves’ apparent phase velocity, which varies for different seismic phases ranging from fast body-waves to slow surface- and scattered-waves. To facilitate this conversion and improve its reliability, an algorithm for slowness determination is presented, based on the local slant-stack transform. This approach yields a unique slowness value at each time instance of a DAS time-series. The ability to convert strain-rate signals to ground accelerations is validated using simulated data and applied to several earthquakes recorded by dark fibers of three ocean-bottom telecommunication cables in the Mediterranean Sea. The conversion emphasizes fast body-waves compared to slow scattered-waves and ambient noise, and is robust even in the presence of correlated noise and varying wave propagation directions. Good agreement is found between source parameters determined using converted DAS waveforms and on-land seismometers for both P- and S-wave records. The demonstrated ability to resolve source parameters using P-waves on horizontal ocean-bottom fibers is key for the implementation of DAS based earthquake early warning, which will significantly improve hazard mitigation capabilities for offshore and tsunami earthquakes.</p>

Seismic doublets and a complex seismic sequence controlled by the rotation of the Juan Fernández microplate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Cesca ◽  
Carla Valenzuela Malebrán ◽  
José Ángel López-Comino ◽  
Timothy Davis ◽  
Carlos Tassara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Source Parameters ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Focal Mechanisms ◽  
Joint Analysis ◽  
Seismic Sequence ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Coulomb Stress Changes ◽  
Earthquake Source Parameters ◽  
Stress Changes

<p> A complex seismic sequence took place in 2014 at the Juan Fernández microplate, a small microplate located between Pacific, Nazca and Antarctica plates. Despite the remoteness of the study region and the lack of local data, we were able to resolve earthquake source parameters and to reconstruct the complex seismic sequence, by using modern waveform-based seismological techniques. The sequence started with an exceptional Mw 7.1-6.7 thrust – strike slip earthquake doublet, the first subevent being the largest earthquake ever recorded in the region and one of the few rare thrust earthquakes in a region otherwise characterized by normal faulting and strike slip earthquakes. The joint analysis of seismicity and focal mechanisms suggest the activation of E-W and NE-SW faults or of an internal curved pseudofault, which is formed in response to the microplate rotation, with alternation of thrust and strike-slip earthquakes. Seismicity migrated Northward in its final phase, towards the microplate edge, where a second doublet with uneven focal mechanisms occurred. The sequence rupture kinematics is well explained by Coulomb stress changes imparted by the first subevent. Our analysis show that compressional stresses, which have been mapped at the northern boundary of the microplate, but never accompanied by large thrust earthquakes, can be accommodated by the rare occurrence of large, impulsive, shallow thrust earthquakes, with a considerable tsunamigenic potential.</p>

Stress Drop Derived from Spectral Analysis Considering the Hypocentral Depth in the Attenuation Model: Application to the Ridgecrest Region, California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dino Bindi ◽  
Hoby N. T. Razafindrakoto ◽  
Matteo Picozzi ◽  
Adrien Oth
Keyword(s):  
Stress Drop ◽  
Spectral Decomposition ◽  
Epicentral Distance ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
S Wave ◽  
Qualitative Comparison ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Attenuation Model ◽  
Hypocentral Distance ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT We investigate the impact of considering a depth-dependent attenuation model on source parameters assessed through a spectral decomposition. In particular, we evaluate the effect of considering the hypocentral depth as an additional variable for the attenuation model, using as the target the tendency of the average stress drop to increase with depth, as observed in recent studies. We analyze the Fourier spectra of S-wave windows for about 1900 earthquakes with a magnitude above 2.5 recorded in the Ridgecrest region, southern California. Two different parameterizations of the attenuation term are implemented in the spectral decomposition, either as a function of the hypocentral distance alone or as a function of both epicentral distance and depth. The comparison of the spectral attenuation curves shows that, although the hypocentral model describes, on average, the range of values spanned by the attenuation curve for different depths, systematic differences with distance, depth, and frequency are observed. These differences are transferred to the source spectra and, in turn, to the source parameters extracted from the best-fitting ω−2 models. In particular, stress drops for events deeper than 7 km are, on average, almost double even when depth is introduced explicitly in the attenuation model. The increase of stress drop with depth is confirmed also after accounting for the increase of the shear velocity with depth, which absorbs about 30%–40% of the total increase. Moreover, a qualitative comparison with a model for the gradient of the effective normal stress confirms the reliability of the observed trend. Finally, the coherent spatial patterns shown by a simplified 2D tomographic representation of the spectral residuals highlights the impact on ground-shaking variability of the lateral variability of the crustal attenuation properties in the region.

10 July 1894 Istanbul Earthquake: Comparing Damages and Ground Motion Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nesrin Yenihayat ◽  
Eser Çaktı ◽  
Karin Şeşetyan
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Fault Simulation ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Corner Frequency ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Ground Motion Simulations ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
Intensity Map ◽  
Observed Damage

<p>One of the major earthquakes that resulted in intense damages in Istanbul and its neighborhoods took place on 10 July 1894. The 1894 earthquake resulted in 474 losses of life and 482 injuries. Around 21,000 dwellings were damaged, which is a number that corresponds to 1/7 of the total dwellings of the city at that time. Without any doubt, the exact loss of life was higher. Because of the censorship, the exact loss numbers remained unknown. There is still no consensus about its magnitude, epicentral location, and rupture of length. Even though the hardness of studying with historical records due to their uncertainties and discrepancies, researchers should enlighten the source parameters of the historical earthquakes to minimize the effect of future disasters especially for the cities located close to the most active fault lines as Istanbul. The main target of this study is to enlighten possible source properties of the 1894 earthquake with the help of observed damage distribution and stochastic ground motion simulations. In this paper, stochastic based ground motion scenarios will be performed for the 10 July 1894 Istanbul earthquake, using a finite fault simulation approach with a dynamic corner frequency and the results will be compared with our intensity map obtained from observed damage distributions. To do this, in the first step, obtained damage information from various sources has been presented, evaluated, and interpreted. Secondly, we prepared an intensity map associated with the 1894 earthquake based on macro-seismic information, and damage analysis and classification. For generating ground motions with a stochastic finite fault simulation approach, the EXSIM 2012 software has been used. Using EXSIM, several scenarios are modeled with different source, path, and site parameters. Initial source properties have been obtained from findings of our previous study on the simulation of the 26 September 2019 Silivri (Istanbul) earthquake with Mw 5.8. With the comparison of spatial distributions of the ground motion intensity parameters to the obtained damage and intensity maps, we estimate the optimum location and source parameters of the 1894 Earthquake.</p>

scholarly journals Earthquake source parameters that display the first digit phenomenon

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 625-632
Author(s):  
P. A. Toledo ◽  
S. R. Riquelme ◽  
J. A. Campos
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Moment ◽  
Waiting Times ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Self Organized ◽  
Earthquake Source Parameters ◽  
Self Organized Criticality

Abstract. We study the main parameters of earthquakes from the perspective of the first digit phenomenon: the nonuniform probability of the lower first digit different from 0 compared to the higher ones. We found that source parameters like coseismic slip distributions at the fault and coseismic inland displacements show first digit anomaly. We also found the tsunami runups measured after the earthquake to display the phenomenon. Other parameters found to obey first digit anomaly are related to the aftershocks: we show that seismic moment liberation and seismic waiting times also display an anomaly. We explain this finding by invoking a self-organized criticality framework. We demonstrate that critically organized automata show the first digit signature and we interpret this as a possible explanation of the behavior of the studied parameters of the Tohoku earthquake.

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