scholarly journals Modelling the Symmetrical and Asymmetrical Effects of Global Oil Prices on Local Food Prices: A MENA Region Application

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadj Cherif Houda ◽  
Zhenling Chen ◽  
Guohua Ni
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mena Region

Abstract This paper explores the complex nexus between the global oil prices and the food prices of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the period 2000–2020. Both linear and nonlinear models of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach are adapted into panel data form to investigate the symmetrical and asymmetrical influence of oil prices on food prices. The key results are summarized: i) The effect of oil prices on food prices is significantly positive including both oil-exporting and oil-importing nations are verified in the long-term. The positive impact on oil-exporters—due to higher oil revenues—is greater than importing nations, leading to an increased demand for food. Additionally, the effect on oil-exporters is negative and significant in the short-term but not significant for importers. ii) The panel analysis for the MENA sample confirms the presence of negative short-term asymmetric behaviour, while in the long-term, the asymmetric effect is positive, indicating that food prices increase regardless of fluctuations in oil prices. iii) Wald test results support asymmetric co-integration for the whole sample of the MENA due to the heterogeneous response within the oil-importing and exporting samples. Specifically, the non-linear ARDL test results affirm the absence of an asymmetric nexus among oil and food prices for oil-exporting group (including Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and Tunisia within the oil-importing group. Although there are differences in the direction and degree, the food prices of other countries are asymmetric to the oil price. This study provides recommendations that are useful to MENA countries to establish a stable mechanism for oil and food prices to ensure food security in the region.

scholarly journals The Impact of Oil Prices on the Economy of Vietnam

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 142-159
Author(s):  
Hoa Nguyen Thi Lien ◽  
Trang Tran Thu ◽  
Giang Nguyen Le Ngan
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

In this paper we study the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic performance by investigating the impact of oil price shocks on key macroeconomic variables of Vietnam over the 2001–2012 period. In order to test the relationship between oil prices and the value of industrial production, we use cointegration method to consider the long-term relationship and Error Correction Model (ECM) to ponder the short-term one. The test results show that the price of oil and the value of industrial production in Vietnam are positively correlated in the long term, whereas in the short term the volatility of oil prices in the last two months will negatively affect the fluctuation in the value of the current industrial production.

scholarly journals Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5024
Author(s):  
 Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽  
José Luis Miralles-Quirós
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

scholarly journals Paleolithic Diet—Effect on the Health Status and Performance of Athletes?

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1019
Author(s):  
Barbara Frączek ◽  
Aleksandra Pięta ◽  
Adrian Burda ◽  
Paulina Mazur-Kurach ◽  
Florentyna Tyrała
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Paleolithic Diet ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this meta-analysis was to review the impact of a Paleolithic diet (PD) on selected health indicators (body composition, lipid profile, blood pressure, and carbohydrate metabolism) in the short and long term of nutrition intervention in healthy and unhealthy adults. A systematic review of randomized controlled trials of 21 full-text original human studies was conducted. Both the PD and a variety of healthy diets (control diets (CDs)) caused reduction in anthropometric parameters, both in the short and long term. For many indicators, such as weight (body mass (BM)), body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference (WC), impact was stronger and especially found in the short term. All diets caused a decrease in total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG), albeit the impact of PD was stronger. Among long-term studies, only PD cased a decline in TC and LDL-C. Impact on blood pressure was observed mainly in the short term. PD caused a decrease in fasting plasma (fP) glucose, fP insulin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in the short run, contrary to CD. In the long term, only PD caused a decrease in fP glucose and fP insulin. Lower positive impact of PD on performance was observed in the group without exercise. Positive effects of the PD on health and the lack of experiments among professional athletes require longer-term interventions to determine the effect of the Paleo diet on athletic performance.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and Its Impact on the Indian Economy

2021 ◽  
pp. 097226292198912
Author(s):  
Vikas Barbate ◽  
Rajesh N. Gade ◽  
Shirish S. Raibagkar
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Windfall Gain ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Tree Approach ◽  
Silver Lining

Pessimism looms large all over. COVID-19 has been projected as worse than the Great Depression of 1930. Everyday analyst and agency reports are diving into new bottoms of a fall-down in economic activities. Indian economy, however, has a slightly different story to tell at this hour of crisis. The silver lining for the Indian economy comes from a steep fall in the crude oil prices from around $70 per barrel to a record 18 years low of $22 per barrel. This windfall gain can, to some extent, offset the direct losses due to COVID-19. At the same time, dreams like a $5 trillion economy no longer look even a remote possibility. This article takes stock of the likely impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy in the short term and the long term. A decision-tree approach has been adopted for doing the projections.

scholarly journals Abraham Accords: A Journey from Arab-Israeli to Palestinian-Israeli Conflict

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
International Relations ◽  
State Solution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Peace Processes ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Historical Moment

The western hype over Abraham Accords is evident from their exploitation of the overused phrase “historical moment” in international relations. A shift in Arab-Israeli relations has been stamped with the signing of Abraham Accords, whereby the Arab veto over the recognition of the Palestinian state, in return for Israeli recognition, is practically over. The unexpected shift of alliances in Middle East have defined new battle lines. Israel has joined forces with UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia – against perhaps Iran and Turkey. Despite the commitment to halt further settlements, Palestine is the ultimate victim. The two-state solution, in spirit, is all but buried. Comprehensive peace processes are multi-level and multi-layered and involve pragmatic efforts to build the widest consensus possible around a shared future. However, Abraham Accords lacks just that; it is both elitist and imposed. The paper is an attempt to explore the changing ground realities by exploring both history and the contemporary scenario. It examines both long-term and short-term impact of the accords on the stakeholders and the regional players.

scholarly journals Effect of Carbon Dioxide Concentration on Cereal Yield in Sudan

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Ibrahim A. Onour ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
Yield Increase ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Bound Test

To estimate the long-term effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission on cereal yield in Sudan, we employed an autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bound test for cointegration analysis. The ARDL results reveal evidence of cointegration between the dependent variable (cereals yield) and two independent variables (CO2 emission) and agricultural GDP. The estimation results of the error correction model indicate that change in CO2 has a positive and significant impact on the cereal yield in the long and short terms, as 1% increase in CO2 leads to a cereal yield increase by 3% in the short term and by 0.7% in the long term. This result adds two important findings to the existing literature: First, the positive impact of CO2 on cereal yield in Sudan supports previous research findings in other countries of warm and arid climates. Second, the effect of CO2 on cereal yield differs from short to long term, as our finding indicates that CO2 has a greater positive effect in the short term compared to that in the long term, implying that the effect of CO2 on cereal yields is not linear, as commonly perceived, but it decreases as time duration extends to longer periods. This may be due to the CO2 effect on global warming that emanates from cumulative CO2 concentration, which leaves a disproportionate impact on crops over time.

scholarly journals The Influence of the Knowledge-Based Network Structure Hole on Enterprise Innovation Performance: The Threshold Effect of R&D Investment Intensity

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6155
Author(s):  
Jiajia Hao ◽  
Chunling Li ◽  
Runsen Yuan ◽  
Masood Ahmed ◽  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Network Structure ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Threshold Effect ◽  
Innovation Performance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
D Investment ◽  
Positive Effect

The purpose of innovation is to consume fewer natural resources in order to create sustainable performance; therefore, innovation can ease the pressure of the ecological load and promote the sustainable development of the economy. Taking the 269 enterprises listed on the main board of the electronic information industry from 2010 to 2019 as samples, using the threshold panel data model, the nonlinear relationship between the knowledge-based network structure hole and the short-term and long-term innovation performance of the enterprises were studied, and the threshold effect of R&D investment intensity was discussed. When the R&D investment intensity is from 1.96% to 15.96%, the knowledge-based network structure hole has a significant positive impact on short-term innovation performance. When the R&D investment intensity is from 5.72% to 10.64%, the knowledge-based network structure hole has a significant positive effect on long-term innovation performance. Lower R&D investment intensity can make the knowledge-based network structure hole promote the increase of short term innovation performance, but to make the knowledge-based network structure hole have a positive impact on long term innovation performance, the R&D investment intensity should be increased by more than 5.72%. When R&D investment intensity is not higher than 15.96%, the knowledge-based network structure hole has a significant positive impact on short term innovation performance, but to make the knowledge-based network structure hole maintain the positive effect on long term innovation performance, R&D investment intensity should not exceed 10.64%. Therefore, enterprises should be guided to optimize the knowledge-based network structure according to the R&D investment intensity in order to improve the short term and long-term innovation performance of an enterprise. These research results can help enterprises to save resources and promote the sustainable development of the economy.

scholarly journals Does the Development of Bioenergy Exacerbate the Price Increase of Maize?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 4845
Author(s):  
Zhengyi Dong
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Biomass Energy ◽  
Price Increase ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Cost Channel ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between oil prices and food prices is complex, and maize is the most prominent example. Whether the development of bioenergy will exacerbate the price increase of maize caused by the increasing price of oil is a topic that is attracting great attention. This paper studies the relationship between oil prices and maize prices. First, the effects of the development of biomass energy on maize price in theory is analyzed by constructing a theoretical model that includes the effects of the cost channel and the demand channel, while setting the maize–oil price ratio as a trigger for the demand channel. Then, this paper empirically analyzes the price data. Both theoretical and empirical analyses show the effects of the demand channel in the long term; that is, the effect of the development of bioenergy on maize prices is weak, and maize prices did not increase sharply. The effect of the cost channel is the main cause of the increases in the price of maize and other foods.

Staff Background Paper for the G20 Surveillance Note - Priorities for Structural Reforms in G20 Countries

Policy Papers ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (43) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Product Market ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Market Reforms ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
Near Term

provide a powerful lift to growth—both in the short and the long term—if they are well aligned with individual country conditions . These include an economy’s level of development, its position in the economic cycle, and its available macroeconomic policy space to support reforms. The larger a country’s output gap, the more it should prioritize structural reforms that will support growth in the short term and the long term—such as product market deregulation and infrastructure investment. Macroeconomic support can help make reforms more effective, by bringing forward long-term gains or alleviating their short-term costs . Where monetary policy is becoming over-burdened, domestic policy coordination can help make macroeconomic support more effective. Fiscal space, where it exists, should be used to offset short-term costs of reforms. And where fiscal constraints are binding, budget-neutral reform packages with positive demand effects should take priority. Some structural reforms can themselves help generate fiscal space. For example, IMF research finds that by boosting output, product market deregulation can help lower the debt-to-GDP ratio over time. Formulating a medium-term plan that clarifies the long-term objectives of fiscal policy can also help increase near-term fiscal space. With nearly all G-20 economies operating at below-potential output, the IMF is recommending measures that both boost near-term growth and raise long-term potential growth. For example: ? In advanced economies, these measures include shifting public spending toward infrastructure investment (Australia, Canada, Germany, United States (US)); promoting product market reforms (Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, Korea, Italy) and labor market reforms (Canada, Germany, Japan, Korea, United Kingdom (UK), US); and fiscal structural reforms (France, UK, US). Where there is fiscal space, lowering employment protection is also recommended (Korea). ? Recommendations for emerging markets (EMs) focus on raising public investment efficiency ( India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa), labor market reforms (Indonesia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey), and product market reforms (China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa), which would boost investment and productivity within tighter budgetary constraints particularly if barriers to trade and FDI were eased (Brazil, India, Indonesia). Governance (China, South Africa) and other institutional reforms are also crucial. Where policy space is limited, adjusting the composition of fiscal policy can create space to support reforms ( Argentina, India, Mexico, Russia). ? Some commodity-exporting EMs (Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa) are facing acute challenges, with output significantly below potential and an urgent need to rebuild fiscal buffers. To bolster growth, Fund staff recommends product market and legal reforms to improve the business climate and investment; trade and FDI liberalization to facilitate diversification; and financial deepening to boost credit flows. IMF advice also aims to promote inclusiveness and macroeconomic resilience. The Fund recommends a targeted expansion of social spending toward vulnerable groups (Mexico), social spending for the elderly poor ( Korea), and upgrading social programs for the nonworking poor (US). Recommendations to bolster macrofinancial resilience include expanding the housing supply (UK), resolving the corporate debt overhang (China, Korea), coordinating a national approach to regulating and supervising life insurers (US), and reforming monetary frameworks (Argentina, China).

Jihadists will slow stabilisation of Yemen's south

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Government Authority

Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.

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