scholarly journals The Prediction of the Lifetime of the COVID-19 Virus using Parameter-dependent New Mathematical Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.SELVAKUMAR . .
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Large Mass ◽  
Medical Problem ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Model C ◽  
Death Count

Abstract This article is about a complex real-world human medical problem that people all over the world face, a major international public Health problem due to the new coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19), a highly communicable infectious disease between humans. Spreads rapidly among humans of both sexes of all ages, in large masses in the cyclical manner(seasonally) causing disease in susceptible human Hosts affecting most of the organs in humans mainly lungs resulting in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome resulting in mass acute deaths. Acute deaths are more common with Comorbidities like Diabetes mellitus, Ischaemic heart disease, Liver disease, Kidney disease, Gut, etc. Now it is the major emergency international pandemic public health medical disease. On the face of the earth, there are large masses of infection and mass acute deaths due to COVID-19 virus infection and so the life of every individual is uncertain at any time. Because of the mass acute deaths from the COVID-19 virus infection, everyone in the world is scared. From now on, it is the responsibility of the researchers of all nations to bring hope to people. In this article, by predicting the lifetime of disease-causing virus, hope to the people is given, to better protect all people and speed up the immediate general pandemic preparedness within the lifespan of the virus. To accelerate actions to save people's lives, mathematical models will help make public health decisions and reduce mortality using the resources available during this time of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, to better protect people from disease preparedness for the virus and a general pandemic by predicting the lifetime of the disease-causing coronavirus, three new mathematical models which are dependent on parameters are proposed. The parameters in the model function model uncertainty of death due to the present international real-life problem caused by different strains of the COVID-19 virus. The first model is a model with six parameters and the second and third models are models with seven parameters respectively. These three models are the generalization of the three models of Phem . The errors due to the models of this article are minimized from the errors due to the models of Phem. These three models can predict the acute death count outside the data period and can predict the lifetime. To illustrate the applicability of the models a big data set of size 54 days starting from February 29, 2020, to April 22, 2020, of acute death counts of USA( United States of America) is considered. The main focus is on the USA due to the significant large mass of infection and large mass of acute death from the COVID-19 virus. As a result, everyone's life is uncertain about death at any time. Since it is a major international public health-related medical problem in humans, with an accuracy of 95% of confidence the results using three models are erected. The large mass of acute deaths due to the number of COVID-19 virus infections in the USA are fitted by the model functions of three mathematical models and a solution is found to an international problem. Based on the acute death rate, the lifetime of the COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 1484.76198616309920 days from the first day of acute death, February 29, 2020. In other words, there will be no mass acute deaths from the COVID-19 virus in the USA after April 2024 if the nation follows the guidelines of the WHO(World Health Organization) and the recommendations of the pathogen. And when the people and the government are very well prepared for this crisis then the spread of infection can be prevented, the people and government can be saved from the economic crisis, and many lives can be saved from mass acute deaths. A comparative study of all models is presented for different measures of errors. The acute death count of the USA outside the date of the data set of 54 days is predicted using three models. The data set misses some counts during the collection of data and it is identified. From the ratio of standard deviation and average acute deaths, it is predicted that the total acute death counts during 54 days will be 62,969. Using the standard deviation around the line of regression it is shown that in the data set a large count is missing during the collection of data of USA. Using the coefficient of determination it is predicted that the Model-C, provides 100% of fitness with the given data set and only 0.0% variation. All three models are suitable to fit the data set of acute death counts of the USA, but Model-C is the best and optimal among the three models. Tt is predicted from Model-A, Model-B, and Model-C the total acute death counts during 54 days will be 66537, 67085, and 68523 respectively. Since Model-C is the best and optimal model, the predicted total acute death counts during 54 days will be 68523. Finally, this article suggests various steps to help control the spread and severity of the new disease. The prediction of the lifetime and data count missing in the data set presented in this research article is entirely new and differs totally from all other articles in the literature. To accelerate actions to save people's lives, mathematical models will help make public health decisions and reduce mortality using the resources available during this time of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The World Health Organization and Public Health Research and Practice in Tuberculosis in India

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debabar Banerji
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Services ◽  
General Health ◽  
Operational Research ◽  
World Health ◽  
Expert Committee ◽  
The People ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The World ◽  
National Tuberculosis

Two major research studies carried out in India fundamentally affected tuberculosis treatment practices worldwide. One study demonstrated that home treatment of the disease is as efficacious as sanatorium treatment. The other showed that BCG vaccination is of little protective value from a public health viewpoint. India had brought together an interdisciplinary team at the National Tuberculosis Institute (NTI) with a mandate to formulate a nationally applicable, socially acceptable, and epidemiologically sound National Tuberculosis Programme (NTP). Work at the NTI laid the foundation for developing an operational research approach to dealing with tuberculosis as a public health problem. The starting point for this was not operational research as enunciated by experts in this field; rather, the NTI achieved operational research by starting from the people. This approach was enthusiastically welcomed by the World Health Organization's Expert Committee on Tuberculosis of 1964. The NTP was designed to “sink or sail with the general health services of the country.” The program was dealt a major blow when, starting in 1967, a virtual hysteria was worked up to mobilize most of the health services for imposing birth control on the people. Another blow to the general health services occurred when the WHO joined the rich countries in instituting a number of vertical programs called “Global Initiatives.” An ill-conceived, ill-designed, and ill-managed Global Programme for Tuberculosis was one outcome. The WHO has shown rank public health incompetence in taking a very casual approach to operational research and has been downright quixotic in its thinking on controlling tuberculosis worldwide.

WTO Confidential: The Case of Asbestos

2002 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 489-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry Castleman
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
The Public ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Significance ◽  
Scientific Adviser ◽  
Health Legislation

The World Trade Organization (WTO), created in 1995, adjudicates “trade disputes” between member nations in cases with great human rights, cultural, environmental, and public health significance. Throughout the process of dispute resolution and even after a case is concluded, very little of what happens is made accessible to the public. However, it is one thing to criticize the WTO for its lack of transparency from outside the process, and another to critically examine what was withheld from disclosure and what dangers that presents. This is the inside story from a scientific adviser to one of the parties in a WTO case, analyzing what happened from a public health point of view. This analysis concludes that the public health justification of banning asbestos was accepted in the end by the economists at the WTO, despite the WTO's bias in favoring the party (Canada) making the free trade challenge (to public health legislation, in this case) in numerous stages of the process, despite the WTO's utter lack of expertise in science, medicine, engineering, and public health, and despite important erroneous statements made to the WTO under the cover of confidentiality. Despite its result, this case illustrates that the WTO's threat to national sovereignty could never withstand the light of day, that the people of the world would reject this dangerous free trade fundamentalism if the limitations and dangers of the process were open for all to see.

scholarly journals Understanding the Public Discussion About the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention During the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Twitter Data: Text Mining Analysis Study

10.2196/25108 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. e25108
Author(s):  
Joanne Chen Lyu ◽  
Garving K Luli
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Discussion ◽  
The Public ◽  
Twitter Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Centers For Disease Control

Background The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is a national public health protection agency in the United States. With the escalating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on society in the United States and around the world, the CDC has become one of the focal points of public discussion. Objective This study aims to identify the topics and their overarching themes emerging from the public COVID-19-related discussion about the CDC on Twitter and to further provide insight into public's concerns, focus of attention, perception of the CDC's current performance, and expectations from the CDC. Methods Tweets were downloaded from a large-scale COVID-19 Twitter chatter data set from March 11, 2020, when the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, to August 14, 2020. We used R (The R Foundation) to clean the tweets and retain tweets that contained any of five specific keywords—cdc, CDC, centers for disease control and prevention, CDCgov, and cdcgov—while eliminating all 91 tweets posted by the CDC itself. The final data set included in the analysis consisted of 290,764 unique tweets from 152,314 different users. We used R to perform the latent Dirichlet allocation algorithm for topic modeling. Results The Twitter data generated 16 topics that the public linked to the CDC when they talked about COVID-19. Among the topics, the most discussed was COVID-19 death counts, accounting for 12.16% (n=35,347) of the total 290,764 tweets in the analysis, followed by general opinions about the credibility of the CDC and other authorities and the CDC's COVID-19 guidelines, with over 20,000 tweets for each. The 16 topics fell into four overarching themes: knowing the virus and the situation, policy and government actions, response guidelines, and general opinion about credibility. Conclusions Social media platforms, such as Twitter, provide valuable databases for public opinion. In a protracted pandemic, such as COVID-19, quickly and efficiently identifying the topics within the public discussion on Twitter would help public health agencies improve the next-round communication with the public.

Strategy of Management of the Radioactive Waste for an Emerging Country and International Co-Operation: Example of Tunisia

2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mourad Chalbi ◽  
Lotfi Ghedira ◽  
Samir Allal
Keyword(s):  
Radioactive Waste ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Essential Contribution ◽  
Processing And Storage ◽  
Social Applications

Abstract It is a striking and happy reality today at the same time, marked universally: What it is agreed to call the nuclear controversy is remained circumscribed with nuclear energy and rather confined with the industrialized countries. The other economic and social applications of the nuclear techniques experience a very important development all over the world and which has to continue. The countries of intermediate socio-economic level do not escape this report. And even if these countries have, generally, slightly resorted to nuclear energy, the World Energy Conference (the USA, 1999) provides that nuclear energy will know in the court - medium term a rise in the emerging countries which will come to compensate for its relative retreat in the industrialized countries. There is consequently a number unceasingly crescent of “small producers” of radioactive waste particularly in the emerging countries but, unfortunately, this waste is not dealt with in a rigorous and exhaustive way, generating a potential serious threat engraves for the people and the environment. The analysis of this situation, from the case of Tunisia, reveals the following cause: miss of infrastructures, qualified personnel, financial means and impossibility of coping with these difficulties without international co-operation there. In this communication we propose a strategy, on a 20 years horizon of management of the radioactive waste for Tunisia taking account of the means of the country and the essential contribution of the co-operation. We make share in this respect already committed experiment of the three-way co-operation Tunisia - IAEA - Belgium. The strategy that we propose articulates on the following points: 1. Definition of the long-term objectives and the principles; 2. The institutional and regular project; 3. The inventory of the radioactive waste; 4. The planning of the formation; 5. The project of a pilot unit for waste processing and storage; 6. The question of the evacuation; The above actions are evoked in interference with the role of the international co-operation.

Environmental Concerns and the Importance of Desulfurization

2020 ◽  
pp. 284-294
Author(s):  
Tawfik A. Saleh
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
The People ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The World ◽  
Atmospheric Sulfur ◽  
General Wellbeing

The increased utilization of fossil fuels and subsequent industrialization in most of the world has led to a remarkable increase in the atmospheric sulfur compounds concentrations. Pollution released by the use of petroleum-based fuels contributes immensely to the deterioration of air quality despite regulatory and technological advances in place. SOx, NOx, and particulate matter are constantly emitted to the environment which affects public health, ecosystem, and general wellbeing of the people living mostly in urban areas. Sulfur dioxide, which is the immediate sulfur compound found in the lower atmosphere after combustion of fuels, has a major role to play in the formation of acid rain, smog formation, and particulate aerosols. Each of these formations affects the healthy living of animals, plants, soils, water, and the general ecosystem. This chapter discusses the environmental issues of sulfur.

8 The ten largest Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 229 order of population sized 1991 9.9 Extreme percentage values of population change—people over 230 65, unemployed, Black and Hispanic 9.10 A comparison of the largest urban agglomerations in six parts 231 of the world 10.1 Mineral resources of the USA, Canada and Australia in 236 percentages of the world total 10.2 Demographic profiles of selected countries 237 10.3 Calendar for Canada, Australia and New Zealand 240 10.4 Wheat yields 240 10.5 Area and population of the provinces of Canada, the states of 242 Australia, and New Zealand 10.6 The direction of Australian foreign trade, 1951 and 1990 243 11.1 Latin American calendar from 1492 to the present 250 11.2 Demographic features of the twenty-three largest Latin 253 American countries 11.3 Economic and social aspects of the twenty-three largest Latin 254 American countries 11.4 Demographic and social data for the states of Mexico, 1990 265 11.5 Data set for the states of Brazil and the macro-regions 273 11.6 Forest and woodland in northern and central South America 275 11.7 Population in millions in the North region of Brazil in relation 278 to the total population of Brazil, 1872–2000

2003 ◽  
pp. 668-668
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Demographic Profiles ◽  
The North ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Central South

scholarly journals Smallpox in the Post-Eradication Era

Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hermann Meyer ◽  
Rosina Ehmann ◽  
Geoffrey L. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Health Benefit ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

Widespread vaccination programmes led to the global eradication of smallpox, which was certified by the World Health Organisation (WHO), and, since 1978, there has been no case of smallpox anywhere in the world. However, the viable variola virus (VARV), the causative agent of smallpox, is still kept in two maximum security laboratories in Russia and the USA. Despite the eradication of the disease smallpox, clandestine stocks of VARV may exist. In a rapidly changing world, the impact of an intentional VARV release in the human population would nowadays result in a public health emergency of global concern: vaccination programmes were abolished, the percentage of immunosuppressed individuals in the human population is higher, and an increased intercontinental air travel allows for the rapid viral spread of diseases around the world. The WHO has authorised the temporary retention of VARV to enable essential research for public health benefit to take place. This work aims to develop diagnostic tests, antiviral drugs, and safer vaccines. Advances in synthetic biology have made it possible to produce infectious poxvirus particles from chemicals in vitro so that it is now possible to reconstruct VARV. The status of smallpox in the post-eradication era is reviewed.

scholarly journals Predicting COVID-19 Confirmed Cases using ARIMA Models in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambreen Chaudhry ◽  
Aamer Ikram ◽  
Muazam Abbas ◽  
Mumtaz Ali Khan ◽  
Tayyab Rathore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Health Professionals ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Public Health Professionals ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Behavior ◽  
Near Future

<p>· COVID-19 pandemic has emerged and spread rapidly across the world </p> <p>· Novel behavior of coronavirus has been seen in Pakistan</p> <p>· Number of COVID-19 cases has been increasing despite many control and preventive measures taken by government of Pakistan</p> <p>· Mathematical models help public health professionals estimate the size of epidemic in near future </p>

scholarly journals Predicting COVID-19 Confirmed Cases using ARIMA Models in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambreen Chaudhry ◽  
Aamer Ikram ◽  
Muazam Abbas ◽  
Mumtaz Ali Khan ◽  
Tayyab Rathore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Health Professionals ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Public Health Professionals ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Behavior ◽  
Near Future

<p>· COVID-19 pandemic has emerged and spread rapidly across the world </p> <p>· Novel behavior of coronavirus has been seen in Pakistan</p> <p>· Number of COVID-19 cases has been increasing despite many control and preventive measures taken by government of Pakistan</p> <p>· Mathematical models help public health professionals estimate the size of epidemic in near future </p>

Impact of Corona virus Outbreak on Climate and air Quality

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikita Jatai ◽  
Tanu Sharma ◽  
Karan Veer
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome ◽  
Distress Syndrome ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Symptomatic Case ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

All over the world, there is a new target of public health emergency looming the world along with an appearance and distribution of the novel coronavirus disease (2019-nCoV) also known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This Virus initially generated in bats and then after transferred to a human being over unknown animal playing the role of mediator in Wuhan, China in December 2019. This virus is passed by breathing or in contact with an infected person’s droplets. The Incubation period is between 2 to 14 days for COVID-19, that is the time between exposure of the virus (person becoming infected) and symptom on that person, is on an average of 5-6 days, however it can goes up to 14 days. Throughout this period, which can be also known as “pre-symptomatic” period, some of the infected patients or persons can be contagious. That is why, transferal from a pre-symptomatic case can happen before the symptoms onset. Where there is few number of case studies and reports, pre-symptomatic transferal has been documented via contact with someone who is diagnosed with virus and increase investigation of that particular clusters of total confirmed cases. The main problem is that the symptoms are just like the regular flu that are cough, fever, sore throat, fatigue and breathlessness. This virus is moderate or mild in most of the people, but in elder ones, it may proceed to pneumonia, multi-organ dysfunction and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). Coronavirus has significant consequences on the Health system, mainly on cardiovascular diseases and on the environment.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document