Poisson Q Term Risk Model of Yields: Measuring Systematic Dynamic Risk Over the EU Debt Crisis

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
John A Thorp ◽  
Raul C Rosales
Keyword(s):  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Gikungu ◽  
Jacob Wakhungu ◽  
Donald Siamba ◽  
Edward Neyole ◽  
Richard Muita ◽  
...  

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonotic disease that occurs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, Egypt and the Arabian Peninsula, with heavy impact in affected countries. Outbreaks are episodic and related to climate variability, especially rainfall and flooding. Despite great strides towards better prediction of RVF epidemics, there is still no observed climate data-based warning system with sufficient lead time for appropriate response and mitigation. We present a dynamic risk model based on historical RVF outbreaks and observed meteorological data. The model uses 30-year data on rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, normalised difference vegetation index and sea surface temperature data as predictors. Our research on RVF focused on Garissa, Murang’a and Kwale counties in Kenya using a research design based on a correlational, experimental, and evaluational approach. The weather data were obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Department while the RVF data were acquired from International Livestock Research Institute, and the Department of Veterinary Services. Performance of the model was evaluated by using the first 70% of the data for calibration and the remaining 30% for validation. The assessed components of the model accurately predicted already observed RVF events. The Brier score for each of the models (ranging from 0.007 to 0.022) indicated high skill. The coefficient of determination (R2) was higher in Garissa (0.66) than in Murang’a (0.21) and Kwale (0.16). The discrepancy was attributed to data distribution differences and varying ecosystems. The model outputs should complement existing early warning systems to detect risk factors that predispose for RVF outbreaks.


2014 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Kawecka-Wyrzykowska

Abstract In reaction to the sharp deterioration of fiscal positions and a sovereign debt crisis in the majority of EU member states, EU leaders have been strengthening the EU economic governance framework, in particular for the eurozone member states. This has been reflected mainly through a reinforcement of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) within the so-called six-pack and through the recent adoption of the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union (TSCG). The objective of this paper is to present the main decisions taken to address intensifying problems in the EU and assess them from the point of view of stability of the eurozone. The paper argues that the recent adoption of the six-pack and of the TSCG has created a legal basis for more effective governance structure that is much stronger than previously, and closer fscal coordination among EU member states in order to ensure public fnance sustainability. The practical results will depend, however, on the political willingness of countries to accept the new rules and rigorous enforcement of those rules. Most of the new solutions continue the previous approach: stricter preventive and punishing rules, and their more rigorous application. TSCG has adopted a new element: parallel to EU rules, there should be enhanced national rules (possibly in the form of constitutional commitments) and national institutions responsible for fscal discipline. This approach implies that international rules are not strong enough for sovereign countries, which agree to be subject to democratically elected national authorities but do not want to follow decisions by “outside” institutions. In addition, reverse voting in the Council encourages for more pragmatic, economically justifed use of the modifed SGP. In view of a lack of political will to move forward into a political union, this seems the only realistic approach to ensure fscal stabilization and keep the eurozone alive in the short and medium run. Two main research methods have been applied: (a)Statistical analysis of data on changes of the public fnances in the EU member states (budgetary defcit and public debt), (b)comparative analysis of successive EU documents on strengthening economic governance and identifcation of strong and weak aspects of the new documents from the point of view of stability of the eurozone. The main conclusion is that in a situation of a lack of political will to move forward into a political union, the only realistic approach to ensure fscal stabilization and keep the eurozone alive in the short and medium term seems to be to enforce rigorously the recently adopted new commitments aiming at better fscal control of euro area members.


Author(s):  
Andreas Fisahn

The crisis of the European Union cannot be solved by austerity programs. Therefore a closer look at the reasons of the crisis seems to be reasonable, which includes a description of the development of the EU from 1951 to present times. The Union started as a tariff union and evolved through different steps to an order of competitive states. The main fields of competition between the states are taxes and social costs, which leads to tax dumping and a race to the bottom in social benefits. Starting in 1990 the EU achieved the status of an open financial market, with the duty of deregulation of capital movements being stipulated in Treaties. In the end the problem is not a debt crisis but a crisis of the structure of the European Union. The solution – which especially the German government prefers – may be the first step on the way to an authoritarian state.


Author(s):  
Ferran ARMENGOL FERRER

LABURPENA: Egonkortasuneko Mekanismo Europarrean (EME) baldintzapena nola aplikatzen den aztertuko dugu artikulu honetan, Europar Batasunaren esparruan aitortuta dauden oinarrizko eskubideen ikuspegitik. Horretarako, giza eskubideen alorrean nazioarteko hitzarmenak aplikatzearen alde egin duten jarrera doktrinalak hartu dira erreferentziatzat, Nazioarteko Diru Funtsak (NDF) eta nazioarteko beste finantza-erakunde batzuek garapen bidean diren herrialdeekiko operazioetan txertatu duten baldintzapenari muga jartzeko. Europar Batasunaren eremuan 2009-2010 urteetako zor publikoaren krisiari erantzuna emateko sortu diren organismoek eta, batez ere, EMEk (euro eremuan egonkortasuna ziurtatzeko organismoak,) ordea, egiturazko elementu gisa sartu dute baldintzapena haien operazioetan, NDFaren antzeko filosofia hartuta, hau da, zuhurtziaren bitartez lortu nahi dute hazkunde ekonomikoa, eta, horren ondorioz, oinarrizko eskubide batzuk ezin izan dira behar bezala gauzatu. Horrek mahai gainean jartzen du kontu bat, ea politika horiek bateragarri ote diren Europar Batasunaren helburu eta printzipioekin; hasiera batean «zuzenbidezko komunitatea» esamoldeaz definitu baitzuten EB, eta giza eskubideetan oinarrituta eraiki. Justizia Auzitegiak horri buruz idatzi zuen lehenengo epai —goiztiarrak— (Pringle epaiak), ordea, ez zuen zehaztu EMEren baldintzapenak Europar Batasunaren xede eta printzipioekin eta giza eskubideekiko errespetuarekin bat egiten ote duen. Hala ere, badirudi irizpide hori aldatzen ari dela, Ledra Advertising-en duela gutxi eman den epaiaren harira; izan ere, jabetzarako eskubideari dei egiteko atea ireki du, baldintzapena ezartzearen ondorioz eragindako kalteengatiko ordaina eskatzeari dagokionez. Hortaz, EME Europako Diru Funtsean eraldatuta bakarrik heldu ahalko zaie oinarrizko eskubideei, EME erkideko erakunde gisa eratzen bada, baldintzapenaren ondorio kaltegarriak geldiarazteari edo arintzeari begira. Are gehiago, Europako Diru Funtsean baldintzapena judizialki kontrolatzea erreferentea izan liteke nazioarteko beste finantza-erakunde batzuentzat. RESUMEN: El presente artículo analiza la aplicación de la condicionalidad en el Mecanismo Europeo de Estabilidad (MEDE) desde la perspectiva de los derechos fundamentales reconocidos en el ámbito de la Unión Europea. A tal efecto, se toman como referencia las posiciones doctrinales que han venido defendiendo la aplicación de los convenios internacionales en materia de derechos humanos como límite a la condicionalidad introducida por el FMI y otras instituciones financieras internacionales en sus operaciones con los países en desarrollo. Los organismos creados en el ámbito de la Unión Europea para dar respuesta a la crisis de la Deuda pública de 2009-10, y de modo singular el MEDE, organismo creado para garantizar la estabilidad de la zona euro, han introducido, sin embargo, la condicionalidad como un elemento estructural en sus operaciones, con una filosofía parecida a la del FMI, es decir, conseguir el crecimiento económico a partir de la austeridad, con lo que se ha visto perjudicado el ejercicio de diversos derechos fundamentales. Ello plantea la cuestión de la compatibilidad de tales políticas con los objetivos y principios de la Unión Europea, definida en su día como «Comunidad de Derecho» y fundada sobre los valores de los derechos humanos. La primera —y temprana— sentencia dictada al respecto por el Tribunal de Justicia (sentencia Pringle) dejó, sin embargo, en el aire la cuestión de la compatibilidad de la condicionalidad del MEDE con los objetivos y principios de la Unión Europea y el respeto de los derechos humanos. Parece, no obstante, que este criterio tiende a modificarse a partir del reciente fallo en Ledra Advertising, que ha abierto la puerta a invocar el derecho de propiedad para ser indemnizado por los daños causados por la aplicación de la condicionalidad. Con todo, será a partir de la transformación del MEDE en el Fondo Monetario Europeo, si éste se constituye como institución comunitaria, como puede hacerse efectiva la invocación de los derechos fundamentales para frenar o mitigar los efectos perjudiciales de la condicionalidad. Más aún, el control judicial de la condicionalidad en el FME podría servir como referente para otras instituciones financieras internacionales. ABSTRACT: This article analyses the application of conditionality within the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) from the perspective of the fundamental rights recognized within the EU. To this end, we take as a reference the doctrinal positions that have been defending the application of international conventions on human rights as a limit to the conditionality introduced by the IMF and another financial international institutions in their operations with developing countries. The public agencies created within the EU in order to meet the demands of the public debt crisis of 2009-10, and specifically the ESM, a body created to guarantee the Euro zone’s stability, have nonetheless introduced the conditionality as a structural element in their operations, with a philosophy comparable to that of the IMF, i.e. to achieve economic growth from austerity, thus impairing the exercise of several fundamental rights. That raises the question of compatibility of those policies with the objectives and principles of the EU, defined one day as a «community of law» and founded upon the values of fundamental rights. The first —and early— judgement delivered on this ground by the European Court of Justice (Pringle case) left nevertheless in the air the compatibility of the conditionality of ESM with the objectives and principles of the EU and with the respect to human rights. It seems however that this criteria tends to be modified by the recent judgment Ledra Advertising that opened the door to invoke the right to property in order to be compensated by damages caused as a consequence of conditionality. Even so, it will be after the transformation of the ESM into an European Monetary Fund, if this is constituted as a Community institution, that invoking fundamental rights shall be effective in order to stop or mitigate the adverse effects of conditionality. What is more, the judicial control over conditionality within the EMF might serve as a reference for other international financial institutions.


IG ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 328-335
Author(s):  
Hartmut Marhold

The European Union (EU) invests huge resources in overcoming the pandemic crisis and does so as a learning system: The Union learned lessons from the previous, the financial, economic and state debt crisis after 2008, in many ways. The EU assumes now definitely the role of an active player in the economy, leaving behind the neoliberal doctrine; she suspends the restrictive budgetary policy, which prevented already in 2008 and the following years adequate solutions; she reshaped the control over its financial aid programmes so that harsh conflict between member states („troika“) are mitigated; the Union further refined the public private partnership mechanisms established unter the aegis of the European Investment Bank (EIB); the European Central Bank (ECB) assumes now a role still disputed after 2008; the flexibility clauses of the Lisbon Treaty, just put into force after 2008, are now extensively applied; and, more than anything else, the Union aims at a change of paradigm by putting the NextGenerationEU programme at the service of sustainable development (enshrined in the Green Deal).


2019 ◽  
pp. 89-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quinn Slobodian ◽  
Dieter Plehwe

Since the advent of the European debt crisis in 2009, it has become common to hear descriptions of the European Union as a neoliberal machine hardwired to enforce austerity and to block projects of redistribution or solidarity. Yet by adopting an explanatory framework associating neoliberalism with supranational organizations like the EU, NAFTA, and the WTO against the so-called populism of its right-wing opponents, many observers have painted themselves into a corner. The problems with a straightforward compound of “neoliberal Europe” became starkly evident with the success of the “leave” vote in the Brexit referendum in 2016. If the EU was neoliberal, were those who called to abandon it the opponents of neoliberalism? If the EU is indeed the “neoliberalism express,” then to disembark was by definition a gesture of refusal against neoliberalism. To make sense of the resurgent phenomenon of the far right in European politics, then, our chapter tracks such continuities over time and avoids misleading dichotomies that pit neoliberal globalism—and neoliberal Europeanism—against an atavistic national populism. The closed-borders libertarianism of nationalist neoliberals like the German AfD is not a rejection of globalism but is a variety of it.


2021 ◽  
pp. 147-163
Author(s):  
George Pagoulatos

EMU was a brainchild of contrasting parental personalities. Integrationist European ambition joined disparate national pursuits to create an imperfect EMU architecture, though one amenable to correction through crises. When the debt crisis hit the periphery, recessionary national adjustment was supported by insufficient Eurozone-level reforms. The EU opted for incremental crisis management and paid a price in terms of fragmentation. The Eurozone debt crisis bequeathed a contradictory legacy of both raising the visibility of the reform agenda and raising the bar of political difficulty in bringing it about, having divided Europe between (heartless) ‘creditor’ and (reckless) ‘borrower’ countries. By raising the stakes of EU failure, the Covid-19 crisis operated as a reform accelerator. The joint reaction demonstrated that the EU maintained its survival instinct, drawing on the political capital invested in its preservation. The Eurozone’s reform conundrum remains the glaring gap between what is widely admitted as necessary and what is realized as politically feasible. Consecutive reform attempts have been frustrated by country coalitions that resist movement towards further risk sharing (through the fiscal, financial or monetary channel) or deny any further transfer of national autonomy. There are ways out of the EMU straitjacket. One is formally deferring the rules. Another is saying things without doing them. A third strategy is doing things without saying them. The momentous leap of ‘Next Generation EU’ notwithstanding, EMU remains incomplete, even though confidence in its ability to survive has been greatly boosted by its resilience in the face of the two severe, consecutive crises.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document