scholarly journals Verification of the Performance of the Pseudo-Global-Warming Method for Future Climate Changes during June in East Asia

SOLA ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (0) ◽  
pp. 133-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takao Yoshikane ◽  
Fujio Kimura ◽  
Hiroaki Kawase ◽  
Toru Nozawa
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate

scholarly journals d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masayoshi Ishii ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Climate Simulations

Abstract A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making for future climate changes (d4PDF), was designed for climate change risk assessments. Since the completion of the first set of climate simulations in 2015, the database has been growing continuously. It contains the results of ensemble simulations conducted over a total of thousands years respectively for past and future climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) and regional (20 km mesh) atmospheric models. Several sets of future climate simulations are available, in which global mean surface air temperatures are forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 K, and 1.5 K relative to preindustrial levels. Nonwarming past climate simulations are incorporated in d4PDF along with the past climate simulations. The total data volume is approximately 2 petabytes. The atmospheric models satisfactorily simulate the past climate in terms of climatology, natural variations, and extreme events such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. In addition, data users can obtain statistically significant changes in mean states or weather and climate extremes of interest between the past and future climates via a simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. The database is helpful in understanding future changes in climate states and in attributing past climate events to global warming. Impact assessment studies for climate changes have concurrently been performed in various research areas such as natural hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, and insurance. The database has now become essential for promoting climate and risk assessment studies and for devising climate adaptation policies. Moreover, it has helped in establishing an interdisciplinary research community on global warming across Japan.

scholarly journals A probe into the different fates of locust swarms in the plains of North America and East Asia

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 11179-11200
Author(s):  
G. Yu ◽  
D. Johnson ◽  
X. Ke ◽  
Y. Li
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North America ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
The Past ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Chemical Pesticides

Abstract. Locust swarms had periodically raged in both North American Plains (NAP) and East Asian Plains (EAP) before 1880 AD. After this period, the locust outbreaks almost never recurred in NAP but have continued to occur in EAP. Since large quantities of pesticides were used in the major agriculture regions of NAP in the late 1870s; this has been suggested as a possible major cause of the disappearing of locust outbreaks. Extensive applications of more effective chemical pesticides were also used in the granary regions of EAP in the 1950s in an effort to kill the pests at a much higher intensity. However, locust swarms came back again in many areas of China in the 1960s. Therefore, NAP locust extinction still remains a puzzle. Frequent locust outbreaks in EAP over the past 130 yr may offer clues to probe key control elements in the disappearing of locust outbreaks in NAP. This paper analyzes the climate extremes and monthly temperature-precipitation combines of NAP and EAP, and found the differences in their frequencies of these climate combines caused different locust fates in the two regions: restrained the locust outbreak in NAP but induced such events in EAP. Validation shows that severer EAP locust outbreak years were coincided with the climate extreme combines years. Thus we suggest that climate changes in frequency, extremes and trends can explain why the fate of the locust plague in EAP was different from that in NAP. The study also points out that, under the present global warming, cautions should be taken to make sure the pest hazard being nipped in the-bud.

scholarly journals Summer and winter precipitation in East Asia scale with global warming at different rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wengui Liang ◽  
Minghua Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Moisture Gradient ◽  
Atmospheric Water ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Moisture Budget Analysis

AbstractFuture changes of regional precipitation are of great scientific and societal interests. Large uncertainties still exist in their projections by models. Mechanistic understanding is therefore necessary. Here we demonstrate robust features of the percentage change of precipitation normalized to surface temperature change (%/K) under global warming, referred to as scaling of precipitation with temperature in East Asia. We find that land precipitation in the summer scales at ~3%/K, well below the scaling rate of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship for atmospheric water vapor content, but the scaling in winter is comparable to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling at ~7%/K. By using moisture budget analysis of model simulations, we show that this scaling and the seasonal contrast can be clearly attributed to the robust climate changes of steeping moisture gradient, weakening westerly jets, and increasing hydrological amplitude of atmospheric eddies.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

Super Droughts over East Asia since 1960 under the Impacts of Global Warming and Decadal Variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Wang ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Qiang Fu ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Qiulin Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Decadal Variability

scholarly journals Virtually experiencing future climate changes in Central America with MRI-AGCM: climate analogues study

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhardt E. Pinzón ◽  
Kenshi Hibino ◽  
Izuru Takayabu ◽  
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate

scholarly journals Geoheritage sites with palaeogeographical value: Some geotourism perspectives with examples from Mountainous Adygeja (Russia)

2015 ◽  
pp. 93-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria Gnezdilova ◽  
Dmitry Ruban ◽  
Delia Bruno ◽  
Piero Perrotta ◽  
Brooke Crowley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
General Public ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Western Caucasus

Geoheritage sites with palaeogeographical value are excellent venues for geotourism. These sites preserve information about ancient environments, ecosystems, and their dynamics that may be of interest to professionals, students, amateur scientists, and the general public. Palaeogeographical geoheritage sites (geosites) can be used to successfully increase public awareness of past and future climate changes. However, because palaeogeographical information is typically complex and not directly visible, professional interpretation is necessary. Successful interpretive tools include posted signs and education activities that engage visitors in scientific research. Using modern analogues to help visitors visualize past environments and ecosystems may be particularly effective. Professional interpretation helps foster visitor awareness of a geosite?s value. We suggest that some geosites can be visited sequentially on a guided excursion and propose a route for observing five geosites that exemplify the geodiversity of Mountainous Adygeja (Western Caucasus, southwestern Russia). Guided geosite excursions would introduce visitors to a broad diversity of palaeoenvironments and deepen their understanding of palaeogeographical phenomena. However, carrying capacity should be evaluated seriously for any geosites that are incorporated into palaeogeographical tourist excursions.

scholarly journals Lengthening of summer season over the Northern Hemisphere under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo-Joung Park ◽  
Seung-Ki Min ◽  
Evan Weller
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Industrial Condition ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Hot Days

Abstract Summer season has lengthened substantially across Northern Hemisphere (NH) land over the past decades, which has been attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases. This study examines additional future changes in summer season onset and withdrawal under 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming conditions using multiple atmospheric global climate model (AGCM) large-ensemble simulations from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. Five AGCMs provide more than 100 runs of 10-year length for three experiments: All-Hist (current decade: 2006-2015), Plus15, and Plus20 (1.5℃ and 2.0℃ above pre-industrial condition, respectively). Results show that with 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warmer conditions summer season will become longer by a few days to weeks over entire NH lands, with slightly larger contributions by delay in withdrawal due to stronger warming in late summer. Stronger changes are observed more in middle latitudes than high latitudes and largest expansion (up to three weeks) is found over East Asia and the Mediterranean. Associated changes in summer-like day frequency is further analyzed focusing on the extended summer edges. The hot days occur more frequently in lower latitudes including East Asia, USA and Mediterranean, in accord with largest summer season lengthening. Further, difference between Plus15 and Plus20 indicates that summer season lengthening and associated increases in hot days can be reduced significantly if warming is limited to 1.5℃. Overall, similar results are obtained from CMIP5 coupled GCM simulations (based on RCP8.5 scenario experiments), suggesting a weak influence of air-sea coupling on summer season timing changes.

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