Rainfall–runoff modelling using genetic programming

This paper presents the application of genetic programming to the generation of models to assess the total runoff of a basin starting from the total rainfall in it and using data recorded in a sub-basin at the valley of Mexico (the Mixcoac sub-basin to the west of Mexico City). The modelling process is developed contrasting two types of models with different complexity degree: (1) a nonlinear model whose complexity is resolved using multi-objective optimization and (2) a nonlinear model with a given structure obtained by means of a physical interpretation of the dynamics of the direct and the base flow. Data from two storms (rainfall and runoff), one in 1997 and another in 1998, were used in testing the models. First, the storm in 1997 was used for the calibration step and that in 1998 for the validation step. Afterwards, the order was reversed. An interpretation of the results, focused on the applicability and possible improvement of the models in forecasting runoff, is made through their discussion and is summarized in the conclusions.

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Rainfall Runoff Modelling Based on Genetic Programming

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2002.0012 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 33 (5) ◽

pp. 331-346 ◽

Cited By ~ 89

Author(s):

Vladan Babovic ◽

Maarten Keijzer

Keyword(s):

Genetic Programming ◽

Conceptual Models ◽

Linear Time ◽

Physical Models ◽

Data Driven ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Considerable Time ◽

Hydrologic Models ◽

Spatially Distributed ◽

Using Data

The runoff formation process is believed to be highly non-linear, time varying, spatially distributed, and not easily described by simple models. Considerable time and effort has been directed to model this process, and many hydrologic models have been built specifically for this purpose. All of them, however, require significant amounts of data for their respective calibration and validation. Using physical models raises issues of collecting the appropriate data with sufficient accuracy. In most cases it is difficult to collect all the data necessary for such a model. By using data driven models such as genetic programming (GP), one can attempt to model runoff on the basis of available hydrometeorological data. This work addresses use of genetic programming for creating rainfall-runoff models on the basis of data alone, as well as in combination with conceptual models (i.e taking advantage of knowledge about the problem domain).

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Runoff measurement and prediction for a watershed under natural vegetation in central Brazil

Revista Brasileira de Ciência do Solo ◽

10.1590/s0100-06831999000300024 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 23 (3) ◽

pp. 695-701 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

C. L. Silva ◽

C. A. S. Oliveira

Keyword(s):

Weighted Average ◽

Federal District ◽

Curve Number ◽

Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽

Natural Vegetation ◽

Water Infiltration ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Total Rainfall ◽

Central Brazil ◽

Total Runoff

This work aimed to measure and analyze total rainfall (P), rainfall intensity and five-day antecedent rainfall effects on runoff (R); to compare measured and simulated R values using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (CN) for each rainfall event; and to establish average R/P ratios for observed R values. A one-year (07/01/96 to 06/30/97) rainfall-runoff data study was carried out in the Capetinga watershed (962.4 ha), located at the Federal District of Brazil, 47° 52' longitude West and 15° 52' latitude South. Soils of the watershed were predominantly covered by natural vegetation. Total rainfall and runoff for the period were 1,744 and 52.5 mm, respectively, providing R/P of 3% and suggesting that watershed physical characteristics favored water infiltration into the soil. A multivariate regression analysis for 31 main rainfall-runoff events totaling 781.9 and 51.0 mm, respectively, indicated that the amount of runoff was only dependent upon rainfall volume. Simulated values of total runoff were underestimated about 15% when using CN method and an area-weighted average of the CN based on published values. On the other hand, when average values of CN were calculated for the watershed, total runoff was overestimated about 39%, suggesting that CN method shoud be used with care in areas under natural vegetation.

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Development of an interpreting service model at the Durban University of Technology

10.51415/10321/738 ◽

2012 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Rosethal Loli Makhubu

Keyword(s):

Theoretical Model ◽

Service Delivery ◽

Mother Tongue ◽

Critical Issue ◽

Critical Realist ◽

University Of Technology ◽

Delivery Mechanism ◽

Using Data ◽

Equity Of Access ◽

Modelling Process

This research deals with the development of a model of interpreting services for a newly merged multilingual University of Technology, the Durban University of Technology. The rationale for the study was the urgent need to give students whose mother tongue is not the medium of instruction (i.e. English) equity of access to higher-degree education. The research was carried out within a critical realist approach, which seeks to transform society by practical application of theory. Unlike previous studies in interpreting, this research focuses on the service provision aspect of interpreting. It falls within the field of educational interpreting, but goes beyond the classroom situation in considering other university interpreting needs, such as seminars and in-house conferences, graduation and other ceremonies, operational meetings and labour-related meetings. Franck‟s modelling process was used to formulate a theoretical model of the interpreting service delivery mechanism using data gathered during visitations to local and international universities. The theoretical model, or system of essential functions, was used to arrive at the applied aspect of the mechanism, termed an empirical model of interpreting service delivery. The model was then validated in terms of its application in various contexts at the Durban University of Technology. It is suggested that the theoretical and practical models developed have application not only for educational interpreting, but also in other interpreting contexts. The models are also considered to have relevance for service delivery in general, which is a critical issue at present in South Africa.

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Rainfall-runoff modelling in small and middle-large catchments - an overview

Geografie ◽

10.37040/geografie2006111030305 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 111 (3) ◽

pp. 305-313

Author(s):

Michal Jeníček

Keyword(s):

Information Technologies ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Base Flow ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Effective Protection ◽

Typical Structure ◽

Linear Cascade ◽

Modelling Techniques ◽

Rainfall Runoff Model ◽

Runoff Model

A rainfall-runoff modelling is nowadays a dynamically developing department of hydrology and water management. This development is caused by a rapid progress of computers and information technologies. This evolution provides the mankind with new possibilities to use water as its basic need and at the same time to evolve an effective protection against it. The aim of this article is to give some basic information about rainfall-runoff modelling, various approaches to it, methods and possibilities of application. This kind of information may help the user with the choice of the suitable rainfall-runoff model. Rainfall-runoff or hydraulic models have many different applications, e.g. in operational hydrology, water resource management or in research. Typical structure of any rainfall-runoff model, come out from a simplified catchment structure as a system of vertical ordered reservoirs, which form a linear cascade model. The main reservoirs are precipitation, evapotranspiration (together with interception), direct runoff, runoff in unsaturated zone (interflow), base flow and channel flow. For computation of processes running in each of these reservoirs (filling or drainage), many equations (model techniques) are applied. This structure and presented modelling techniques are used in the most common models like HEC-HMS, MIKE-SHE, Sacramento (SAC-SMA), NASIM, HBV and many others.

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Variation of Runoff and Runoff Components of the Upper Shule River in the Northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under Climate Change

Water ◽

10.3390/w13233357 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (23) ◽

pp. 3357

Author(s):

Jinkui Wu ◽

Hongyuan Li ◽

Jiaxin Zhou ◽

Shuya Tai ◽

Xueliang Wang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sustainable Use ◽

Reduction Rate ◽

Northwest China ◽

Tibet Plateau ◽

Glacier Area ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Total Runoff ◽

Increasing Temperature ◽

The Impact

Quantifying the impact of climate change on hydrologic features is essential for the scientific planning, management and sustainable use of water resources in Northwest China. Based on hydrometeorological data and glacier inventory data, the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model was used to simulate the changes of hydrologic processes in the Upper Shule River (USR) from 1971 to 2020, and variations of runoff and runoff components were quantitatively analyzed using the simulations and observations. The results showed that the glacier area has decreased by 21.8% with a reduction rate of 2.06 km2/a. Significant increasing trends in rainfall runoff, glacier runoff (GR) and baseflow indicate there has been a consistent increase in total runoff due to increasing rainfall and glacier melting. The baseflow has made the largest contribution to total runoff, followed by GR, rainfall runoff and snow runoff, with mean annual contributions of 38%, 28%, 18% and 16%, respectively. The annual contribution of glacier and snow runoff to the total runoff shows a decreasing trend with decreasing glacier area and increasing temperature. Any increase of total runoff in the future will depend on an increase of rainfall, which will exacerbate the impact of drought and flood disasters.

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A hysteretic model for rainfall-runoff of a simplifed catchment

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16172 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Denis Flynn ◽

Warren Roche

Keyword(s):

Overland Flow ◽

Previous History ◽

Infiltration Rate ◽

Nonlinear Phenomenon ◽

Hysteretic Model ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Total Runoff ◽

History Of ◽

Preisach Operator ◽

Rainfall Runoff Model

<div>The soil can be modelled as a porous medium in which the three phases of matter coexist and produce the emergent phenomenon of hysteresis.</div><div>Rate-independent hysteresis is a nonlinear phenomenon where the output depends not only on the current input but also the previous history of inputs to the system. In multiphase porous media such as soils, the hysteresis is in the relationship between the soil-moisture content, and the capillary pressure.</div><div>In this work, we develop a simplified hysteretic rainfall-runoff model consisting of the following subsystems that capture much of the physics of flow through a slab of soil:</div><div>1) A slab of soil where rainfall enters and if enough water is present in the soil, it will subsequently drain into the groundwater reservoir. This part of the model is represent by ODE with a Preisach operator.</div><div>2) A runoff component: If the rainfall exceeds the maximum infiltration rate of the soil, the excess will become surface runoff. This part of the model is represented by a series of two hysteretic reservoirs instead of the two linear reservoirs in the literature.</div><div>3) A ground water storage and outflow subsystem component: this is also modelled by a hysteretic reservoir. Finally, the outputs from the groundwater output and the overland flow are combined to give the total runoff. We will examine this model and compare it with non-hysteretic case both qualitatively and quantitively.</div>

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The association of cellulitis incidence and meteorological factors in Taiwan

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268819000323 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 147 ◽

Author(s):

Ren-Jun Hsu ◽

Chia-Cheng Chou ◽

Jui-Ming Liu ◽

See-Tong Pang ◽

Chien-Yu Lin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Environmental Factors ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Meteorological Factors ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Strongly Correlated ◽

Total Rainfall ◽

The Public ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Using Data ◽

Central Weather Bureau

AbstractCellulitis is a common infection of the skin and soft tissue. Susceptibility to cellulitis is related to microorganism virulence, the host immunity status and environmental factors. This retrospective study from 2001 to 2013 investigated relationships between the monthly incidence rate of cellulitis and meteorological factors using data from the Taiwanese Health Insurance Dataset and the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau. Meteorological data included temperature, hours of sunshine, relative humidity, total rainfall and total number of rainy days. In otal, 195 841 patients were diagnosed with cellulitis and the incidence rate was strongly correlated with temperature (γS = 0.84, P < 0.001), total sunshine hours (γS = 0.65, P < 0.001) and total rainfall (γS = 0.53, P < 0.001). The incidence rate of cellulitis increased by 3.47/100 000 cases for every 1° elevation in environmental temperature. Our results may assist clinicians in educating the public of the increased risk of cellulitis during warm seasons and possible predisposing environmental factors for infection.

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Improved Curve Number Estimation in SWAT by Reflecting the Effect of Rainfall Intensity on Runoff Generation

Water ◽

10.3390/w11010163 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 163 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Dejian Zhang ◽

Qiaoyin Lin ◽

Xingwei Chen ◽

Tian Chai

Keyword(s):

Rainfall Intensity ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Flow Simulation ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Curve Number ◽

Base Flow ◽

Data Sets ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Runoff Generation ◽

The Relationship

Determining the amount of rainfall that will eventually become runoff and its pathway is a crucial process in hydrological modelling. We proposed a method to better estimate curve number by adding an additional component (AC) to better account for the effects of daily rainfall intensity on rainfall-runoff generation. This AC is determined by a regression equation developed from the relationship between the AC series derived from fine-tuned calibration processes and observed rainfall series. When incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and tested in the Anxi Watershed, it is found, overall, the modified SWAT (SWAT-ICN) outperformed the original SWAT (SWAT-CN) in terms of stream flow, base flow, and annual extreme flow simulation. These models were further evaluated with the data sets of two adjacent watersheds. Similar results were achieved, indicating the ability of the proposed method to better estimate curve number.

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Response of melt water and rainfall runoff to climate change and their roles in controlling streamflow changes of the two upstream basins over the Tibetan Plateau

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2019.075 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 51 (2) ◽

pp. 272-289 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Yueguan Zhang ◽

Zhenchun Hao ◽

Chong-Yu Xu ◽

Xide Lai

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tibetan Plateau ◽

Dominant Factor ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Glacier Mass Balance ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Snowmelt Runoff ◽

Infiltration Capacity ◽

Total Runoff

Abstract Located in the Tibetan Plateau, the upstream regions of the Mekong River (UM) and the Salween River (US) are very sensitive to climate change. The ‘VIC-glacier‘ model, which links a degree-day glacier algorithm with variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, was employed and the model parameters were calibrated on observed streamflow, glacier mass balance and MODIS snowcover data. Results indicate that: (1) glacier-melt runoff exhibits a significant increase in both areas by the Mann–Kendall test. Snowmelt runoff shows an increasing trend in the UM, while the US is characterized by a decreasing tendency. In the UM, the snowmelt runoff peak shifts from June in the baseline period 1964–1990 to May for both the 1990s and 2000s; (2) rainfall runoff was considered as the first dominant factor driving changes of river discharge, which could be responsible for over 84% in total runoff trend over the two regions. The glacial runoff illustrates the secondary influence on the total runoff tendency; (3) although the hydrological regime is rain dominated in these two basins, the glacier compensation effect in these regions is obvious, especially in dry years.

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