Long-term changes in the frequency of cyclones and their trajectories in Central and Northern Europe

2005 ◽  
Vol 36 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 297-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mait Sepp ◽  
Piia Post ◽  
Jaak Jaagus

Changes in the number of cyclones and cyclone trajectories in Central and Northern Europe during 1948–2000 are analysed using a database of cyclones. Two hypotheses are advanced. Firstly, the number of cyclones reaching Northern Europe has increased, causing a transition to a more maritime climate. Secondly, the trajectories of cyclones have moved northward, causing the advection of warm and moist air to Northern Europe and decreasing precipitation in Central Europe. These advances were confirmed by data analysis. A linear trend and its statistical significance (P<0.05) for the frequency of cyclones in the Atlantic–European sector (30°W–45°E, 35–75°N) were calculated. Circles with radii of 500, 1000, 1500 and 2000 km with centre coordinates 60°N and 22.5°E were generated. All the cyclones whose centres were located within these circles were counted. Also two meridians −5°E and 20°E – were selected and all the cyclones were counted whose centres crossed the meridians from west to east in the interval of 45–75°N. Changes in the frequency of long-term cyclones were analysed. The number of cyclones reaching Northern Europe has increased in the period 1948–2000. The number of cyclones over the Baltic Sea has increased, especially in the winter. In Central Europe, the number of cyclones has decreased, especially in the warm half-year. The number of long cyclones has increased over the Baltic Sea, especially in the cold half-year.

Author(s):  
Anneli Adler ◽  
Almir Karacic ◽  
Ann-Christin Rönnberg Wästljung ◽  
Ulf Johansson ◽  
Kaspars Liepins ◽  
...  

AbstractThe increased demand for wood to replace oil-based products with renewable products has lifted focus to the Baltic Sea region where the environment is favorable for woody biomass growth. The aim of this study was to estimate broad-sense heritabilities and genotype-by-environment (G×E) interactions in growth and phenology traits in six climatically different regions in Sweden and the Baltics. We tested the hypothesis that both bud burst and bud set have a significant effect on the early growth of selected poplar clones in Northern Europe. Provenance hybrids of Populus trichocarpa adapted to the Northern European climate were compared to reference clones with adaptation to the Central European climate. The volume index of stemwood was under low to medium genetic control with heritabilities from 0.22 to 0.75. Heritabilities for phenology traits varied between 0.31 and 0.91. Locally chosen elite clones were identified. G×E interactions were analyzed using pairwise comparisons of the trials. Three different breeding zones for poplars between the latitudes of 55° N and 60° N in the Baltic Sea Region were outlined. The studied provenance hybrids with origin from North America offer a great possibility to broaden the area with commercial poplar plantations in Northern Europe and further improve the collection of commercial clones to match local climates. We conclude that phenology is an important selection criterion after growth.


1991 ◽  
Vol 24 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 373-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Grimvall ◽  
H. Borén ◽  
S. Jonsson ◽  
S. Karlsson ◽  
R. Sävenhed

The long-term fate of chlorophenols and adsorbable organic halogens (AOX) was studied in two large recipients of bleach-plant effluents: Lake Vättern in Sweden and the Baltic Sea. The study showed that there is a long-distance transport (>100 km) of chloroguaiacols from bleach-plants to remote parts of receiving waters. However, there was no evidence of several-year-long accumulation of chloro-organics in the water-phase. A simple water-exchange model for Lake Vättern showed that the cumulated bleach-plant discharges from the past 35 years would have increased the AOX concentration in the lake by more than 100 µg Cl/l, if no AOX had been removed from the water by evaporation, sedimentation or degradation. However, the observed AOX concentration in Lake Vättern averaged only about 15 µg Cl/l, which was less than the average AOX concentration (32 µg Cl/l) in the “unpolluted” tributaries of the lake. Similar investigations in the Baltic Sea showed that non-point sources, including natural halogenation processes, accounted for a substantial fraction of the AOX in the open sea. The presence of 2,4,6-trichlorophenol in precipitation and “unpolluted” surface waters showed that non-point sources may also make a considerable contribution to the background levels of compounds normally regarded as indicators of bleach-plant effluents.


Ocean Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Soomere ◽  
A. Räämet

Abstract. This study focuses on spatial patterns in linear trends of numerically reconstructed basic wave properties (average and extreme wave heights, wave periods) in the Baltic Sea under the assumption of no ice cover. Numerical simulations of wave conditions for 1970–2007, using the WAM wave model and adjusted geostrophic winds, revealed extensive spatial variations in long-term changes in both average and extreme wave heights in the Baltic Sea but almost no changes in the basinwide wave activity and wave periods. There has been a statistically significant decrease in the annual mean significant wave height by more than 10% between the islands of Öland and Gotland and in the southward sea area, and a substantial increase to the south-west of Bornholm, near the coast of Latvia, between the Åland Archipelago and the Swedish mainland, and between the Bothnian Sea and the Bothnian Bay. Variations in extreme wave heights (defined as the threshold for 1% of the highest waves each year) show similar patterns of changes. In several areas the trends in average and extreme wave heights are different. Such a complicated pattern of changes indicates that (i) different regions of the Baltic Sea basin have experienced widespread but essentially different changes in wind properties and (ii) many seemingly controversial trends and variations established in wave properties at different sites in the recent past may reflect the natural spatial variability in the Baltic Sea wave fields.


2021 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
Maria Rusakova ◽  

The article examines Warsaw's attempts to expand its influence in Central Europe by initiating various regional integration projects: cooperation with the Baltic sea countries participation in the development of the Carpathian region the newest format – the Lublin Triangle. The content of the Lublin Declaration signed on July 28, 2020 by Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine is analyzed in detail. Having been convinced by the example of Ukraine that the Eastern Partnership policy does not allow for quick results, as well as in connection with the events in Belarus, Poland decided to create a regional initiative that can be considered as a continuation of the Eastern Partnership policy. The Lublin Declaration opens up a wide range of potential areas of cooperation, however it is still too early to say how successful this project will be. Initially it was planned that Belarus would also join the Lublin Initiative, but later Minsk refused to participate. This seriously limited the project, but does not exclude the possibility of future innovations in its format. The author concludes that the Lublin Triangle is one of the Warsaw's instruments to realize the idea of Intermarium


2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1949) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johan Östergren ◽  
Stefan Palm ◽  
John Gilbey ◽  
Göran Spong ◽  
Johan Dannewitz ◽  
...  

Intra-species genetic homogenization arising from anthropogenic impacts is a major threat to biodiversity. However, few taxa have sufficient historical material to systematically quantify long-term genetic changes. Using archival DNA collected over approximately 100 years, we assessed spatio-temporal genetic change in Atlantic salmon populations across the Baltic Sea, an area heavily impacted by hydropower exploitation and associated with large-scale mitigation stocking. Analysis was carried out by screening 82 SNPs in 1680 individuals from 13 Swedish rivers. We found an overall decrease in genetic divergence and diminished isolation by distance among populations, strongly indicating genetic homogenization over the past century. We further observed an increase in genetic diversity within populations consistent with increased gene flow. The temporal genetic change was lower in larger wild populations than in smaller wild and hatchery-reared ones, indicating that larger populations have been able to support a high number of native spawners in relation to immigrants. Our results demonstrate that stocking practices of salmon in the Baltic Sea have led to the homogenization of populations over the last century, potentially compromising their ability to adapt to environmental change. Stocking of reared fish is common worldwide, and our study is a cautionary example of the potentially long-term negative effects of such activities.


2015 ◽  
Vol 92 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesper H. Andersen ◽  
Jacob Carstensen ◽  
Daniel J. Conley ◽  
Karsten Dromph ◽  
Vivi Fleming-Lehtinen ◽  
...  

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