scholarly journals Hydrologic responses to climate change using downscaled GCM data on a watershed scale

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Chen ◽  
Ajay Kalra ◽  
Sajjad Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Watershed Scale ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Annual Peak ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Creek Watershed ◽  
Hydrologic Responses

AbstractThe changing climate has raised significant concerns for water resources, especially on a watershed scale. In this study, the downscaled global circulation model (GCM) products were further bias corrected and evaluated for the period of 1981–2099. Driven by the bias-corrected products, a calibrated Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model was used to assess long-term hydrologic responses in the Lehman Creek watershed, eastern Nevada. The results of this study show: (1) the Parameter–elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) products offer a reliable replacement for limited observations for bias correction using quantile mapping (QM) technique; (2) average increases of 2.3 °C, 2.2 °C, and 35.1 mm in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation by the end of century; (3) an annual streamflow increase of 7.6–11.6% with greatest increases in April and greatest decreases in June; (4) 20 days' earlier shift in annual peak flow – as indicated by the date of winter-spring center of volume – by the end of the century. For management of local water resources, this study provides a better understanding of variations in the streamflow rate and timing to a potential climate change in the study area as well as corresponding uncertainties in the estimation processes.

scholarly journals The study of potential evapotranspiration in future periods due to climate change in west of Iran

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Rajabi ◽  
Zahra Babakhani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Change Effect ◽  
Climate Change Effect

Purpose This study aims to present the climate change effect on potential evapotranspiration (ETP) in future periods. Design/methodology/approach Daily minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and precipitation weather parameters have been downscaled by global circulation model (GCM) and Lars-WG outputs. Weather data have been estimated according to the Had-CM3 GCM and by A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios in three periods: 2011-2030, 2045-2046 and 2080-2099. To select the more suitable method for ETP estimation, the Hargreaves-Samani (H-S) method and the Priestly–Taylor (P-T) method have been compared with the Penman-Monteith (P-M) method. Regarding the fact that the H-S method has been in better accordance with the P-M method, ETP in future periods has been estimated by this method for different scenarios. Findings In all five stations, in all three scenarios and in all three periods, ETP will increase. The highest ETP increase will occur in the A1B scenario and then in the A1 scenario. The lowest increase will occur in the B1 scenario. In the 2020 decade, the highest ETP increase in three scenarios will occur in Khorramabad and then Hamedan. Kermanshah, Sanandaj and Ilam stations come at third to fifth place, respectively, with a close increase in amount. In the 2050 decade, ETP increase percentages in all scenarios are close to each other in all the five stations. In the 2080 decade, ETP increase percentages in all scenarios will be close to each other in four stations, namely, Kermanshah, Sanandaj, Khorramabad and Hamedan, and Ilam station will have a higher increase compared with the other four stations. Originality/value Meanwhile, the highest ETP increase will occur in hot months of the year, which are significant with regard to irrigation and water resources.

scholarly journals Decrease of the water recharge and identification of water recharge zones in the Alto Atoyac sub-basin, Oaxaca, as a result of climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin Antonio Ojeda Olivares ◽  
Salvador Isidro Belmonte Jimenez ◽  
Tim K. Takaro ◽  
Jose Oscar Campos Enriquez ◽  
Maria Ladrón de Guevara Torres
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Local Adaptations ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Water Recharge ◽  
Permeable Soil

Abstract This study analyzes effects of climate change (CCh) and of the increase of impervious surfaces on the groundwater recharge in the Alto Atoyac sub-basin (Oaxaca, southern Mexico). Water recharge was modeled based on HELP 3.95D; temperature and precipitation were derived, for a near (2015–2039) and a far distant future scenario, from GFDL-CM3 global circulation model (GCM), which describes the climate of Mexico under the RCP8.5 scenario. Potential recharge loss zones for the period of 1979–2013 were estimated through a remote sensing analysis. The actual estimated mean annual recharge of 169 million cubic metres could be reduced by 17.97% and 65.09% according to the analyzed CCh scenarios, and the loss of 135 km2 of permeable soil would represent additionally 2.65 × 106 m3 of non-infiltrated water. This study indicates three sites, with high recharge potential, and it can be used to propose local adaptations to guarantee the availability of the water resource in the studied sub-basin.

Modeling the response of non-perennial streams to climate change impact: The Bouregreg watershed in Morocco

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Maria De Girolamo ◽  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Lahcen Benaabidate ◽  
Aziz Aboubdillah ◽  
Ali El Bilali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hybrid Modeling ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Stream Network ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Modeling Approach

<p>The non-perennial streams and rivers are predominant in the Mediterranean region and play an important ecological role in the ecosystem diversity in this region. This class of streams is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects that are expected to amplify further under most climatic projections. Understanding the potential response of the hydrologic regime attributes to climatic stress helps in planning better conservation and management strategies. Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco, is a strategic watershed for the region with a developed non-perennial stream network, and with typical assets and challenges of most Mediterranean watersheds. In this study, a hybrid modeling approach, based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program, was used to simulate the response of BW's stream network to climate change during the period: 2035-2050. Downscaled daily climate data from the global circulation model CNRM-CM5 were used to force the hybrid modeling framework over the study area. Results showed that, under the changing climate, the magnitude of the alteration will be different across the stream network; however, almost the entire flow regime attributes will be affected. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of zero-flow days will rise up from 3 to 17.5 days per year in some streams, the timing of the maximum flow was calculated to occur earlier by 17 days than in baseline, and the timing of the minimal flow should occur later by 170 days in some streams. The used modeling approach in this study contributed in identifying the most vulnerable streams in the BW to climate change for potential prioritization in conservation plans.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Food Security of Nepal

2012 ◽  
pp. 59-63
Author(s):  
Roshan Kumar Mehta ◽  
Shree Chandra Shah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Groundwater Table ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Aquatic Life ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Water Scarce

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere is widely believed to be causing climate change. It affects agriculture, forestry, human health, biodiversity, and snow cover and aquatic life. Changes in climatic factors like temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have potential to influence agrobiodiversity and its production. An average of 0.04°C/ year and 0.82 mm/year rise in annual average maximum temperature and precipitation respectively from 1975 to 2006 has been recorded in Nepal. Frequent droughts, rise in temperature, shortening of the monsoon season with high intensity rainfall, severe floods, landslides and mixed effects on agricultural biodiversity have been experienced in Nepal due to climatic changes. A survey done in the Chitwan District reveals that lowering of the groundwater table decreases production and that farmers are attracted to grow less water consuming crops during water scarce season. The groundwater table in the study area has lowered nearly one meter from that of 15 years ago as experienced by the farmers. Traditional varieties of rice have been replaced in the last 10 years by modern varieties, and by agricultural crops which demand more water for cultivation. The application of groundwater for irrigation has increased the cost of production and caused severe negative impacts on marginal crop production and agro-biodiversity. It is timely that suitable adaptive measures are identified in order to make Nepalese agriculture more resistant to the adverse impacts of climate change, especially those caused by erratic weather patterns such as the ones experienced recently.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.59-63

scholarly journals Projections of Twenty-First-Century Climate Extremes for Alaska via Dynamical Downscaling and Quantile Mapping

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (9) ◽  
pp. 2393-2409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rick Lader ◽  
John E. Walsh ◽  
Uma S. Bhatt ◽  
Peter A. Bieniek
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Quantile Mapping ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractClimate change is expected to alter the frequencies and intensities of at least some types of extreme events. Although Alaska is already experiencing an amplified response to climate change, studies of extreme event occurrences have lagged those for other regions. Forced migration due to coastal erosion, failing infrastructure on thawing permafrost, more severe wildfire seasons, altered ocean chemistry, and an ever-shrinking season for snow and ice are among the most devastating effects, many of which are related to extreme climate events. This study uses regional dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate projected twenty-first-century changes of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Alaska. The forcing data used for the downscaling simulations include the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim; 1981–2010), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3), historical (1976–2005), and GFDL CM3 representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5; 2006–2100). Observed trends of temperature and sea ice coverage in the Arctic are large, and the present trajectory of global emissions makes a continuation of these trends plausible. The future scenario is bias adjusted using a quantile-mapping procedure. Results indicate an asymmetric warming of climate extremes; namely, cold extremes rise fastest, and the greatest changes occur in winter. Maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation amounts are projected to increase by 53% and 50%, which is larger than the corresponding increases for the contiguous United States. When compared with the historical period, the shifts in temperature and precipitation indicate unprecedented heat and rainfall across Alaska during this century.

scholarly journals Bringing Climate Projections Down to Size for Water Managers

Eos ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly Cartier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Watershed Scale

Hydrologists are creating watershed-scale projections for water resources managers and tools that managers can use to plan for the effects of climate change.

A statistical framework for evaluating EURO-CORDEX simulations and derived drought characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Peres ◽  
Alfonso Senatore ◽  
Paola Nanni ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere ◽  
Giuseppe Mendicino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

<p>Regional climate models (RCMs) are commonly used for assessing, at proper spatial resolutions, future impacts of climate change on hydrological events. In this study, we propose a statistical methodological framework to assess the quality of the EURO-CORDEX RCMs concerning their ability to simulate historic observed climate (temperature and precipitation). We specifically focus on the models’ performance in reproducing drought characteristics (duration, accumulated deficit, intensity, and return period) determined by the theory of runs at seasonal and annual timescales, by comparison with high-density and high-quality ground-based observational datasets. In particular, the proposed methodology is applied to the Sicily and Calabria regions (Southern Italy), where long historical precipitation and temperature series were recorded by the ground-based monitoring networks operated by the former Regional Hydrographic Offices. The density of the measurements is considerably greater than observational gridded datasets available at the European level, such as E-OBS or CRU-TS. Results show that among the models based on the combination of the HadGEM2 global circulation model (GCM) with the CLM-Community RCMs are the most skillful in reproducing precipitation and temperature variability as well as drought characteristics. Nevertheless, the ranking of the models may slightly change depending on the specific variable analysed, as well as the temporal and spatial scale of interest. From this point of view, the proposed methodology highlights the skills and weaknesses of the different configurations, aiding on the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing climate change impacts on drought processes and the underlying variables.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of changes in daily temperature and precipitation extreme in Jakarta on period of 1986-2014

2018 ◽  
Vol 229 ◽  
pp. 02017
Author(s):  
Aulia N. Khoir ◽  
R. Mamlu’atur ◽  
Agus Safril ◽  
Akhmad Fadholi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Temperature Index ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Rainfall Index ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Characteristics ◽  
Expert Team ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Climate Events

Climate change due to an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations has led to changes in extreme climate events. IPCC 2007 already predicted that average global temperatures would reach 0.74⁰ C in the last 100 years (1906-2005). A study on the temperature index trends and extreme precipitation in the period of 1986-2014 in Jakarta are represented by 5 weather stations. Daily of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation data are calculated using RClimDex Software so that temperature and rainfall index data are obtained. The indexes are extreme climate indexes defined by ETCCDMI (Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices). The indexes consist of TN10p, TN90p, TX10p, TX90p, TNn, TNx, TXn, TXx, DTR, RX1day, RX5day, RCPTOT, CDD, CWD, and R95p. The purpose of this research is to know the change of temperature and precipitation characteristics from observation result in Jakarta by using index calculation. The results show that Jakarta has number of hot days according to the trends which are generally increasing. It can cause the temperature in Jakarta to get hotter. However, for the rainfall, the upward or downward trend is not significant, so it can be said there is no change in precipitation in Jakarta during 1986-2014.

scholarly journals Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Giacomelli ◽  
A. Rossetti ◽  
M. Brambilla
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Water Dynamics ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Watershed Scale ◽  
Summer Period ◽  
Water Management System ◽  
Hydroelectric Reservoirs ◽  
Change Dynamics

Abstract. Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina) retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document