scholarly journals Bringing Climate Projections Down to Size for Water Managers

Eos ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly Cartier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Watershed Scale

Hydrologists are creating watershed-scale projections for water resources managers and tools that managers can use to plan for the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of climate simulations

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 2143-2161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yacouba Yira ◽  
Bernd Diekkrüger ◽  
Gero Steup ◽  
Aymar Yaovi Bossa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
West African ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
High Uncertainty

Abstract. This study evaluates climate change impacts on water resources using an ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs)–global climate models (GCMs) in the Dano catchment (Burkina Faso). The applied climate datasets were performed in the framework of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) project.After evaluation of the historical runs of the climate models' ensemble, a statistical bias correction (empirical quantile mapping) was applied to daily precipitation. Temperature and bias corrected precipitation data from the ensemble of RCMs–GCMs was then used as input for the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to simulate water balance components.The mean hydrological and climate variables for two periods (1971–2000 and 2021–2050) were compared to assess the potential impact of climate change on water resources up to the middle of the 21st century under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results indicate (i) a clear signal of temperature increase of about 0.1 to 2.6 °C for all members of the RCM–GCM ensemble; (ii) high uncertainty about how the catchment precipitation will evolve over the period 2021–2050; (iii) the applied bias correction method only affected the magnitude of the climate change signal; (iv) individual climate models results lead to opposite discharge change signals; and (v) the results for the RCM–GCM ensemble are too uncertain to give any clear direction for future hydrological development. Therefore, potential increase and decrease in future discharge have to be considered in climate change adaptation strategies in the catchment. The results further underline on the one hand the need for a larger ensemble of projections to properly estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources in the catchment and on the other hand the high uncertainty associated with climate projections for the West African region. A water-energy budget analysis provides further insight into the behavior of the catchment.

scholarly journals Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Giacomelli ◽  
A. Rossetti ◽  
M. Brambilla
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Water Dynamics ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Watershed Scale ◽  
Summer Period ◽  
Water Management System ◽  
Hydroelectric Reservoirs ◽  
Change Dynamics

Abstract. Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina) retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 4764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Sperotto ◽  
Josè Luis Molina ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Andrea Critto ◽  
Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

scholarly journals Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water Resources Within a Lake‐Affected Region Using Regional Climate Projections

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre R. Erler ◽  
Steven K. Frey ◽  
Omar Khader ◽  
Marc d'Orgeville ◽  
Young‐Jin Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

scholarly journals Climate change and land suitability for potato production in England and Wales: impacts and adaptation

2011 ◽  
Vol 150 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. DACCACHE ◽  
C. KEAY ◽  
R. J. A. JONES ◽  
E. K. WEATHERHEAD ◽  
M. A. STALHAM ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Potato Production ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Supplementary Irrigation ◽  
Emissions Scenario

SUMMARYThe viability of commercial potato production is influenced by spatial and temporal variability in soils and agroclimate, and the availability of water resources where supplementary irrigation is required. Soil characteristics and agroclimatic conditions greatly influence the cultivar choice, agronomic husbandry practices and the economics of production. Using the latest (UKCP09) scenarios of climate change for the UK, the present paper describes a methodology using pedo-climatic functions and a geographical information system (GIS) to model and map current and future land suitability for potato production in England and Wales. The outputs identify regions where rainfed production is likely to become limiting and where future irrigated production would be constrained due to shortages in water availability. The results suggest that by the 2050s, the area of land that is currently well or moderately suited for rainfed production would decline by 88 and 74%, respectively, under the ‘most likely’ climate projections for the low emissions scenario and by 95 and 86%, respectively, for the high emissions scenario, owing to increased likelihood of dry conditions. In many areas, rainfed production would become increasingly risky. However, with supplementary irrigation, c. 0·85 of the total arable land in central and eastern England would remain suitable for production, although most of this is in catchments where water resources are already over-licensed and/or over-abstracted; the expansion of irrigated cropping is thus likely to be constrained by water availability. The increase in the volume of water required due to the switch from rainfed- to irrigated-potato cropping is likely to be much greater than the incremental increase in water demand solely on irrigated potatoes. The implications of climate change on the potato industry, the adaptation options and responses available, and the uncertainty associated with the land suitability projections, are discussed.

scholarly journals Multi-Scale Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climatic and Anthropogenic Changes in Northern Morocco

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Milewski ◽  
Wondwosen M. Seyoum ◽  
Racha Elkadiri ◽  
Michael Durham
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Anthropogenic Changes ◽  
The Impact

Natural and human-induced impacts on water resources across the globe continue to negatively impact water resources. Characterizing the hydrologic sensitivity to climatic and anthropogenic changes is problematic given the lack of monitoring networks and global-scale model uncertainties. This study presents an integrated methodology combining satellite remote sensing (e.g., GRACE, TRMM), hydrologic modeling (e.g., SWAT), and climate projections (IPCC AR5), to evaluate the impact of climatic and man-made changes on groundwater and surface water resources. The approach was carried out on two scales: regional (Morocco) and watershed (Souss Basin, Morocco) to capture the recent climatic changes in precipitation and total water storage, examine current and projected impacts on total water resources (surface and groundwater), and investigate the link between climate change and groundwater resources. Simulated (1979–2014) potential renewable groundwater resources obtained from SWAT are ~4.3 × 108 m3/yr. GRACE data (2002–2016) indicates a decline in total water storage anomaly of ~0.019m/yr., while precipitation remains relatively constant through the same time period (2002–2016), suggesting human interactions as the major underlying cause of depleting groundwater reserves. Results highlight the need for further conservation of diminishing groundwater resources and a more complete understanding of the links and impacts of climate change on groundwater resources.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis Related to Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Hydropower Production in the Lusatian Neisse River Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariusz Adynkiewicz-Piragas ◽  
Bartłomiej Miszuk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Hydropower Production

Water resources are one of the most important issues affected by climate change. Climate scenarios show that in the upcoming decades, further climate change can occur. It concerns especially air temperature and sunshine duration, whose prognosis indicates a significant rising trend till the end of the century. The goal of the paper was the evaluation of water resources and hydropower production in the future, depending on climate scenarios with a consideration of risk analysis. The analysis was carried out on the basis of observation data for the Lusatian Neisse river basin (Poland) for 1971–2015 and climate projections till 2100 for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathways) scenarios. The results of the research showed that, especially in terms of RCP8.5, very high risk of decrease in water resources and hydropower production is expected in the future. Therefore, recommendations for mitigation of the possible effects are presented.

scholarly journals Hydrologic responses to climate change using downscaled GCM data on a watershed scale

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Chen ◽  
Ajay Kalra ◽  
Sajjad Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Watershed Scale ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Annual Peak ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Creek Watershed ◽  
Hydrologic Responses

AbstractThe changing climate has raised significant concerns for water resources, especially on a watershed scale. In this study, the downscaled global circulation model (GCM) products were further bias corrected and evaluated for the period of 1981–2099. Driven by the bias-corrected products, a calibrated Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model was used to assess long-term hydrologic responses in the Lehman Creek watershed, eastern Nevada. The results of this study show: (1) the Parameter–elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) products offer a reliable replacement for limited observations for bias correction using quantile mapping (QM) technique; (2) average increases of 2.3 °C, 2.2 °C, and 35.1 mm in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation by the end of century; (3) an annual streamflow increase of 7.6–11.6% with greatest increases in April and greatest decreases in June; (4) 20 days' earlier shift in annual peak flow – as indicated by the date of winter-spring center of volume – by the end of the century. For management of local water resources, this study provides a better understanding of variations in the streamflow rate and timing to a potential climate change in the study area as well as corresponding uncertainties in the estimation processes.

scholarly journals Risk assessment in water resources planning under climate change at the Júcar River basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (11) ◽  
pp. 5297-5315
Author(s):  
Sara Suárez-Almiñana ◽  
Abel Solera ◽  
Jaime Madrigal ◽  
Joaquín Andreu ◽  
Javier Paredes-Arquiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Indicator ◽  
Water Planning ◽  
Planning And Management ◽  
Total Capacity

Abstract. Climate change and its possible effects on water resources has become an increasingly near threat. Therefore, the study of these impacts in highly regulated systems and those suffering extreme events is essential to deal with them effectively. This study responds to the need for an effective method to integrate climate change projections into water planning and management analysis in order to guide the decision-making, taking into account drought risk assessments. Therefore, this document presents a general and adaptive methodology based on a modeling chain and correction processes, whose main outcomes are the impacts on future natural inflows, a drought risk indicator, and the simulation of future water storage in the water resources system (WRS). This method was applied in the Júcar River basin (JRB) due to its complexity and the multiannual drought events it suffers recurrently. The results showed a worrying decrease in future inflows, as well as a high probability (≈80 %) of being under 50 % of total capacity of the WRS in the near future. However, the uncertainty of the results was considerable from the mid-century onwards, indicating that the skill of climate projections needs to be improved in order to obtain more reliable results. Consequently, this paper also highlights the difficulties of developing this type of method, taking partial decisions to adapt them as far as possible to the basin in an attempt to obtain clearer conclusions on climate change impact assessments. Despite the high uncertainty, the results of the JRB call for action and the tool developed can be considered as a feasible and robust method to facilitate and support decision-making in complex basins for future water planning and management.

scholarly journals Challenges in water resources of Lagos mega city of Nigeria in the context of climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1067-1083 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Suleiman Shiru ◽  
Eun Sung Chung ◽  
Noraliani Alias ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Salt Water ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Environmental Crisis ◽  
Salt Water Intrusion ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Environmental Challenges ◽  
Groundwater Overdraft

Abstract This study assesses the water resources and environmental challenges of Lagos mega city, Nigeria, in the context of climate change. Being a commercial hub, the Lagos population has grown rapidly causing an insurmountable water and environmental crisis. In this study, a combined field observation, sample analysis, and interviews were used to assess water challenges. Observed climate, general circulation model (GCM) projections and groundwater data were used to assess water challenges due to climate change. The study revealed that unavailability of sufficient water supply provision in Lagos has overwhelmingly compelled the population to depend on groundwater, which has eventually caused groundwater overdraft. Salt water intrusion and subsidence has occurred due to groundwater overexploitation. High concentrations of heavy metals were observed in wells around a landfill. Climate projections showed a decrease in rainfall of up to 140 mm and an increase in temperature of up to 8 °C. Groundwater storage is projected to decrease after the mid-century due to climate change. Sea level rise will continue until the end of the century. As the water and environmental challenges of Lagos are broad and the changing characteristics of the climate are expected to intensify these as projected, tackling these challenges requires a holistic approach from an integrated water resources management perspective.

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