scholarly journals Relative impacts of climate change and land cover change on streamflow using SWAT in the Clackamas River Watershed, USA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junjie Chen ◽  
Heejun Chang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Daily Streamflow

Abstract To understand the spatial–temporal pattern of climate and land cover (CLC) change effects on hydrology, we used three land cover change (LCC) coupled scenarios to estimate the changes in streamflow metrics in the Clackamas River Watershed in Oregon for the 2050s (2040–2069) and the 2080s (2070–2099). Coupled scenarios, which were split into individual and combined simulations such as climate change (CC), LCC, CLC change, and daily streamflow were simulated in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The interannual variability of streamflow was higher in the lower urbanized area than the upper forested region. The watershed runoff was projected to be more sensitive to CC than LCC. Under the CLC scenario, the top 10% peak flow and the 7-day low flow are expected to increase (2–19%) and decrease (+9 to −20 cm s), respectively, in both future periods. The center timing of runoff in the year is projected to shift 2–3 weeks earlier in response to warming temperature and more winter precipitation falling as rain. High streamflow variability in our findings suggests that uncertainties can stem from both climate models and hydrologic model parameters, calling for more adaptive water resource management in the watershed.

Integrated numerical model for irrigated area water resources management

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 980-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidi Huo ◽  
Xiaofan Wang ◽  
Yan Liang ◽  
Cheng Jiang ◽  
Xiaolu Zheng
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Irrigation District ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Long Term Effects

Abstract The likelihood of future global water shortages is increasing and further development of existing operational hydrologic models is needed to maintain sustainable development of the ecological environment and human health. In order to quantitatively describe the water balance factors and transformation relations, the objective of this article is to develop a distributed hydrologic model that is capable of simulating the surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) in irrigation areas. The model can be used as a tool for evaluating the long-term effects of water resource management. By coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models, a comprehensive hydrological model integrating SW and GW is constructed. The hydrologic response units for the SWAT model are exchanged with cells in the MODFLOW model. Taking the Heihe River Basin as the study area, 10 years of historical data are used to conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis on model parameters. The developed model is run for a 40-year prediction period. The application of the developed coupling model shows that since the construction of the Heihe reservoir, the average GW level in the study area has declined by 6.05 m. The model can accurately simulate and predict the dynamic changes in SW and GW in the downstream irrigation area of Heihe River Basin and provide a scientific basis for water management in an irrigation district.

scholarly journals Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 747-770 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Masood ◽  
P. J.-F. Yeh ◽  
N. Hanasaki ◽  
K. Takeuchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Net Radiation ◽  
Fine Grid ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Gbm Basin

Abstract. The intensity, duration, and geographic extent of floods in Bangladesh mostly depend on the combined influences of three river systems, the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM). In addition, climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basin and may ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. However, the assessment of climate change impacts on the basin-scale hydrology by using well-calibrated hydrologic modeling has seldom been conducted in the GBM basin due to the lack of observed data for calibration and validation. In this study, a macroscale hydrologic model H08 has been applied over the basin at a relatively fine grid resolution (10 km) by integrating the fine-resolution DEM (digital elevation model) data for accurate river networks delineation. The model has been calibrated via the analysis of model parameter sensitivity and validated based on long-term observed daily streamflow data. The impacts of climate change (considering a high-emissions path) on runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture are assessed by using five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) GCMs (global circulation models) through three time-slice experiments; the present-day (1979–2003), the near-future (2015–2039), and the far-future (2075–2099) periods. Results show that, by the end of 21st century, (a) the entire GBM basin is projected to be warmed by ~4.3 °C; (b) the changes of mean precipitation (runoff) are projected to be +16.3% (+16.2%), +19.8% (+33.1%), and +29.6% (+39.7%) in the Brahmaputra, Ganges, and Meghna, respectively; and (c) evapotranspiration is projected to increase for the entire GBM (Brahmaputra: +16.4%, Ganges: +13.6%, Meghna: +12.9%) due to increased net radiation as well as warmer temperature. Future changes of hydrologic variables are larger in the dry season (November–April) than in the wet season (May–October). Amongst the three basins, the Meghna shows the highest increase in runoff, indicating higher possibility of flood occurrence. The uncertainty due to the specification of key model parameters in model predictions is found to be low for estimated runoff, evapotranspiration and net radiation. However, the uncertainty in estimated soil moisture is rather large with the coefficient of variation ranging from 14.4 to 31% among the three basins.

scholarly journals Natural and managed watersheds show similar responses to recent climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (34) ◽  
pp. 8553-8557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darren L. Ficklin ◽  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Scott M. Robeson ◽  
Sarah E. Null ◽  
Jason H. Knouft
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Human Disturbances ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Natural Watersheds

Changes in climate are driving an intensification of the hydrologic cycle and leading to alterations of natural streamflow regimes. Human disturbances such as dams, land-cover change, and water diversions are thought to obscure climate signals in hydrologic systems. As a result, most studies of changing hydroclimatic conditions are limited to areas with natural streamflow. Here, we compare trends in observed streamflow from natural and human-modified watersheds in the United States and Canada for the 1981–2015 water years to evaluate whether comparable responses to climate change are present in both systems. We find that patterns and magnitudes of trends in median daily streamflow, daily streamflow variability, and daily extremes in human-modified watersheds are similar to those from nearby natural watersheds. Streamflow in both systems show negative trends throughout the southern and western United States and positive trends throughout the northeastern United States, the northern Great Plains, and southern prairies of Canada. The trends in both natural and human-modified watersheds are linked to local trends in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, demonstrating that water management and land-cover change have not substantially altered the effects of climate change on human-modified watersheds compared with nearby natural watersheds.

scholarly journals The impact of land use and land cover change on hydrological processes in Brantas watershed, East Java, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamad Wawan Sujarwo ◽  
◽  
Indarto Indarto ◽  
Marga Mandala ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
The Impact

Assessing the impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on hydrology is essential for water resource management. The Brantas watershed contributes about 30% of the water supply of the East Java region. The present rapid pace of land occupation for agriculture and settlements is expected to continue to alter flow processes within the watershed. This study aims to simulate LULCC and its impact on the hydrological processes of the watershed. The long-term impact of LULCC is evaluated using the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The analysis model is calibrated using monthly data series from 1996 to 2005 and then validated using data series from 2006 to 2015. Two editions of maps (2001 and 2015) are then used to calculate the LULCC that took place across this time period. The impacts of LULCC on hydrological processes at the sub-basin level are also evaluated. The results show that the variability of rainfall patterns from 2001 to 2015 strongly affected flow variability. The LULCC from agricultural land to other uses (irrigated rice fields, settlements and forests/plantations) is most evident in three sub-basins (sub-basins 2, 9 and 17). However, each sub-basin may respond differently with respect to the LULCC taking place. The increase in area occupied by each class of land use and cover use (LULC) is not always linear to the observed flow, and widely differing LULC classes may display similar flow responses while classes with similar characteristics may have differing impacts on flows within a sub-basin. In other words, the hydrological processes taking place are too complex to be simplified at the sub-basin level.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow and major hydrological components of an Iranian Wadi system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nariman Mahmoodi ◽  
Paul D. Wagner ◽  
Jens Kiesel ◽  
Nicola Fohrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change has pronounced impacts on water resources, especially in arid regions. This study aims at assessing the impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Wadi Halilrood Basin which feeds the Jazmorian wetland in southeastern Iran. To simulate streamflow and hydrological components in the future periods (2030–2059 and 2070–2099), projections for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 11 global-regional climate models and two bias correction methods are used as input data for a hydrologic model that represents the daily streamflow with good accuracy (NSE: 0.76, PBIAS: 4.7, KGE: 0.87). The results indicate a slight increase of streamflow in January and March, due to the higher intensity of precipitation. However, according to the predicted flow duration curves, a decrease for high and very high flow and no remarkable changes for middle, low and very low flow is found under both emission scenarios for both future periods. Compared to the simulated hydrological components for the baseline, a slight increase of evapotranspiration of around 6 mm (4%) and 2 mm (<2%) for the mid- and end of the century is estimated, respectively. Moreover, a substantial drop of water yield of around 36 mm (63%) at mid-century and 39 mm (69%) at the end of the century are projected.

scholarly journals Separate and Combined Impacts of Land Cover and Climate Changes on Hydrological Responses of Dhidhessa River Basin, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gizachew Kabite ◽  
Misgana Muleta ◽  
Berhan Gessesse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Responses ◽  
Soil And Water

Land cover and climate changes greatly influence hydrologic responses of a basin. However, the response vary from basin to basin depending on the nature and severity of the changes and basin characteristics. Moreover, the combined impacts of the changes affect hydrologic responses of a basin in an offsetting or synergistic manner. This study quantified the separate and combined impacts, and the relative contributions of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrological regimes (i.e., surface runoff, streamflow, groundwater recharge evapotranspiration) for the Dhidhessa Subbasin. Land cover and climate change data were obtained from a recent study completed for the basin. Calibrated Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) was used to quantify the impacts. The result showed that SWAT model performed well for the Dhidhessa Subbasin in predicting the water balance components. Substantial land cover change as well as an increasing temperature and rainfall trends were reported in the river basin during the past three decades. In response to these changes, surface runoff, streamflow and actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased while groundwater recharge declined. Surface runoff was more sensitive to land cover than to climate changes whereas streamflow and AET were more sensitive to climate change than to land cover change. The combined impacts played offsetting effect on groundwater recharge and AET while inconsistent effects within study periods for other hydrologic responses. Overall, the predicted hydrologic responses will have negative impacts on agricultural production and water resources availability. Therefore, the implementation of integrated watershed management strategies such as soil and water conservation and afforestation could reverse the negative impacts.

scholarly journals Changes in streamflow regimes and their response to different soil and water conservation measures in Loess Plateau watersheds

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuyu Zhang ◽  
Guangju Zhao ◽  
Xingmin Mu ◽  
Peng Tian
Keyword(s):  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Soil And Water Conservation ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrological Change ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Conservation Measures ◽  
Soil And Water

Investigating the changes in streamflow regimes is useful for understanding the mechanisms associated with hydrological processes in different watersheds and for providing information to facilitate water resources management. In this study, we selected three watersheds, i.e., Sandu River, Hulu River, and Dali River on the Loess Plateau, to examine the changes in the streamflow regimes and to determine their responses to different soil and water conservation measures (terracing, afforestation, and damming). The daily runoff was collected continuously by three hydrological gauges close to the outlets of the three watersheds from 1965 to 2016. The eco-surplus, eco-deficit, and degree of hydrological change were assessed to detect hydrological alterations. The Budyko water balance equation was applied to estimate the potential impacts of climate change and human activities on the hydrological regime changes. Significant decreasing trends (P < 0.05) were detected in the annual streamflow in the Sandu and Dali River watersheds, but not in the Hulu River watershed where afforestation dominated. The annual eco-surplus levels were low and they decreased slightly at three stations, whereas the eco-deficit exhibited dramatic increasing trends in the Sandu and Dali River watersheds. In the Sandu River watershed (dominated by terraces), the runoff exhibited the most significant reduction and the eco-deficit was the highest among the three watersheds. The integral degrees of hydrological change were higher in the Sandu River watershed than the other two watersheds, thereby suggesting substantial variations in the magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, and rate of change in the daily streamflow. In the Dali River watershed (dominated by damming), the changes in the extreme flow were characterized by a decreasing number appearing in high flow. In these watersheds, human activities accounted for 74.1% and 91.78% of the runoff reductions, respectively. In the Hulu River watershed (dominated by afforestation), the annual runoff exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend but with a significant increase in the low flow duration. Rainfall changes accounted for 64.30% of the runoff reduction.

scholarly journals Long-term effects of climate and land cover change on freshwater provision in the tropical Andes

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 5219-5250 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Molina ◽  
V. Vanacker ◽  
E. Brisson ◽  
D. Mora ◽  
V. Balthazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Tropical Andes ◽  
Evaporative Water ◽  
Exotic Tree

Abstract. Andean headwater catchments play a pivotal role to supply fresh water for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes. In this paper, we assess multi-decadal change in freshwater provision based on long time series (1974–2008) of hydrometeorological data and land cover reconstructions for a 282 km2 catchment located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished: (1) rapid decline of native vegetation in montane forest and páramo ecosystems in ~1/5 or 20% of the catchment area, (2) expansion of agricultural land by 14% of the catchment area, (3) afforestation of 12% of native páramo grasslands with exotic tree species in recent years. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow that exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term climate change but very likely result from direct anthropogenic disturbances after land cover change. Partial water budgets for montane cloud forest and páramo ecosystems suggest that the strongest changes in evaporative water losses are observed in páramo ecosystems, where progressive colonization and afforestation of high alpine grasslands leads to a strong increase in transpiration losses.

scholarly journals Land Cover/ Land Use Change and Climate Change in Dhofar Governorate, Oman

2021 ◽  
pp. 41-47
Author(s):  
E. Ramadan ◽  
T. Al-Awadhi ◽  
Y. Charabi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Spatial Differentiation ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Vegetation Activity ◽  
The Status ◽  
Landsat Satellite

The study of land cover/land use dynamics under climate change conditions is of great significance for improving sustainable ecological management. Understanding the relationships between land cover and land use changes and climate change is thus very important. Understanding the interactive and cumulative effects of climate and land-use changes are a priority for urban planners and policy makers. The present investigation is based on Landsat satellite imagery to explore changes in vegetation spatial distribution between the years from 2000 to2018 The methodology is focused on vegetation indexes tracking and algebraic overlay calculation to analyzed vegetation and their spatial differentiation, land cover change pattern, and the relationships between vegetation dynamics and land cover change in Dhofar Governorate. The study results have revealed that the vegetation vigor is lower in all years compared to 2000. The scene of 2010 shows the minimum vegetation vigor, overall. Besides, the investigation shows a statistical relationship between rainfall and the status of the health of vegetation. Monsoon rainfall has an impact of the growth of vegetation. Between 2012 and 2013, the vegetation activity shows a decreasing trend. The analysis diagnoses an area affected by the worst degree of aridity situated in the southeastern of Dhofar Mountains. Climate change is the main driving factor resulted from both human activities and rainfall fluctuation.

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