scholarly journals Prediction model for the leakage rate in a water distribution system

Author(s):  
Burak Kizilöz

Abstract Leakages cause real losses in water distribution systems (WDSs) from transmission lines, storage tanks, networks, and service connections. In particular, the amount of leakage increases in aging networks due to pressure effects, resulting in severe water losses. In this study, various artificial neural network (ANN) models are considered for determining monthly leakage rates and the variables that affect leakage. The monthly data, which are standardized by Z-score for the years 2016–2019, are used in these models by selecting four independent variables that affect the leakage rate regarding district metered areas and pressure metered areas in WDSs. The pressure effects are taken into consideration directly as input. The model accuracy is determined by comparing the predicted and measured data. Furthermore, the leakage rates are estimated by directly modelling the actual data with ANNs. Consequently, it is found that the model results after data standardization are somewhat better than the original nonstandardized data model results when 30 neurons are used in a single hidden layer. The reason for the higher accuracy in the standardized case compared with previous modelling studies is that the pressure effect is taken into consideration. The suggested models improve the model accuracy, and hence, the methodology of this paper supports an improved pressure management system and leakage reduction.

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 1528-1534 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gupta ◽  
N. Bokde ◽  
D. Marathe ◽  
K. Kulat

Reduction of leakages in a water distribution system (WDS) is one of the major concerns of water industries. Leakages depend on pressure, hence installing pressure reducing valves (PRVs) in the water network is a successful techniques for reducing leakages. Determining the number of valves, their locations, and optimal control setting are the challenges faced. This paper presents a new algorithm-based rule for determining the location of valves in a WDS having a variable demand pattern, which results in more favorable optimization of PRV localization than that caused by previous techniques. A multiobjective genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) was used to determine the optimized control value of PRVs and to minimize the leakage rate in the WDS. Minimum required pressure was maintained at all nodes to avoid pressure deficiency at any node. Proposed methodology is applied in a benchmark WDS and after using PRVs, the average leakage rate was reduced by 6.05 l/s (20.64%), which is more favorable than the rate obtained with the existing techniques used for leakage control in the WDS. Compared with earlier studies, a lower number of PRVs was required for optimization, thus the proposed algorithm tends to provide a more cost-effective solution. In conclusion, the proposed algorithm leads to more favorable optimized localization and control of PRV with improved leakage reduction rate.


2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 419-428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Xu ◽  
Qiuwen Chen ◽  
Weifeng Li

The water loss from a water distribution system is a serious problem for many cities, which incurs enormous economic and social loss. However, the economic and human resource costs to exactly locate the leakage are extraordinarily high. Thus, reliable and robust pipe failure models are demanded to assess a pipe's propensity to fail. Beijing City was selected as the case study area and the pipe failure data for 19 years (1987–2005) were analyzed. Three different kinds of methods were applied to build pipe failure models. First, a statistical model was built, which discovered that the ages of leakage pipes followed the Weibull distribution. Then, two other models were developed using genetic programming (GP) with different data pre-processing strategies. The three models were compared thereafter and the best model was applied to assess the criticality of all the pipe segments of the entire water supply network in Beijing City based on GIS data.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
H. J. Surendra ◽  
B. T. Suresh ◽  
T. D. Ullas ◽  
T. Vinayak ◽  
Vinay P. Hegde

AbstractWater companies and their consumers affected with leakages in water distribution system worldwide. This has attracted many practitioner’s attention as well as researchers over the past years. Selected study area suffers from water losses of about 10 to 15% which accounts to loss of about 9 to 9.75 million liters per month. The present study was under taken to understand, analyze and evaluate the losses and suggest preventive measures of wrapping and repair clamping for control of these losses. The assessment of water losses is done through comparative analysis of data using Microsoft Excel software. Population forecasting is done in context of assessing the amount of water lost that can be prevented in future decades, adjusting to increased water demand and losses. For better efficiency of the suggested methods, experimental analysis was carried out on a reduced scale model of a single stretched pipeline. Cost estimation of the preventive measures was done by obtaining information about the materials used by trading professionals.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1163
Author(s):  
Mengning Qiu ◽  
Avi Ostfeld

Steady-state demand-driven water distribution system (WDS) solution is the bedrock for much research conducted in the field related to WDSs. WDSs are modeled using the Darcy–Weisbach equation with the Swamee–Jain equation. However, the Swamee–Jain equation approximates the Colebrook–White equation, errors of which are within 1% for ϵ/D∈[10−6,10−2] and Re∈[5000,108]. A formulation is presented for the solution of WDSs using the Colebrook–White equation. The correctness and efficacy of the head formulation have been demonstrated by applying it to six WDSs with the number of pipes ranges from 454 to 157,044 and the number of nodes ranges from 443 to 150,630. The addition of a physically and fundamentally more accurate WDS solution method can improve the quality of the results achieved in both academic research and industrial application, such as contamination source identification, water hammer analysis, WDS network calibration, sensor placement, and least-cost design and operation of WDSs.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1247
Author(s):  
Lydia Tsiami ◽  
Christos Makropoulos

Prompt detection of cyber–physical attacks (CPAs) on a water distribution system (WDS) is critical to avoid irreversible damage to the network infrastructure and disruption of water services. However, the complex interdependencies of the water network’s components make CPA detection challenging. To better capture the spatiotemporal dimensions of these interdependencies, we represented the WDS as a mathematical graph and approached the problem by utilizing graph neural networks. We presented an online, one-stage, prediction-based algorithm that implements the temporal graph convolutional network and makes use of the Mahalanobis distance. The algorithm exhibited strong detection performance and was capable of localizing the targeted network components for several benchmark attacks. We suggested that an important property of the proposed algorithm was its explainability, which allowed the extraction of useful information about how the model works and as such it is a step towards the creation of trustworthy AI algorithms for water applications. Additional insights into metrics commonly used to rank algorithm performance were also presented and discussed.


Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiwei Bi ◽  
Yihui Xu ◽  
Hongyu Wang

Over the past few decades, various evolutionary algorithms (EAs) have been applied to the optimization design of water distribution systems (WDSs). An important research area is to compare the performance of these EAs, thereby offering guidance for the selection of the appropriate EAs for practical implementations. Such comparisons are mainly based on the final solution statistics and, hence, are unable to provide knowledge on how different EAs reach the final optimal solutions and why different EAs performed differently in identifying optimal solutions. To this end, this paper aims to compare the real-time searching behaviour of three widely used EAs, which are genetic algorithms (GAs), the differential evolution (DE) algorithm and the ant colony optimization (ACO). These three EAs are applied to five WDS benchmarking case studies with different scales and complexities, and a set of five metrics are used to measure their run-time searching quality and convergence properties. Results show that the run-time metrics can effectively reveal the underlying searching mechanisms associated with each EA, which significantly goes beyond the knowledge from the traditional end-of-run solution statistics. It is observed that the DE is able to identify better solutions if moderate and large computational budgets are allowed due to its great ability in maintaining the balance between the exploration and exploitation. However, if the computational resources are rather limited or the decision has to be made in a very short time (e.g., real-time WDS operation), the GA can be a good choice as it can always identify better solutions than the DE and ACO at the early searching stages. Based on the results, the ACO performs the worst for the five case study considered. The outcome of this study is the offer of guidance for the algorithm selection based on the available computation resources, as well as knowledge into the EA’s underlying searching behaviours.


1997 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 317-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.J. Rodriguez ◽  
J.R. West ◽  
J. Powell ◽  
J.B. Sérodes

Increasingly, those who work in the field of drinking water have demonstrated an interest in developing models for evolution of water quality from the treatment plant to the consumer's tap. To date, most of the modelling efforts have been focused on residual chlorine as a key parameter of quality within distribution systems. This paper presents the application of a conventional approach, the first order model, and the application of an emergent modelling approach, an artificial neural network (ANN) model, to simulate residual chlorine in a Severn Trent Water Ltd (U.K.) distribution system. The application of the first order model depends on the adequate estimation of the chlorine decay coefficient and the travel time within the system. The success of an ANN model depends on the use of representative data about factors which affect chlorine evolution in the system. Results demonstrate that ANN has a promising capacity for learning the dynamics of chlorine decay. The development of an ANN appears to be justifiable for disinfection control purposes, in cases when parameter estimation within the first order model is imprecise or difficult to obtain.


2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. R. Furnass ◽  
R. P. Collins ◽  
P. S. Husband ◽  
R. L. Sharpe ◽  
S. R. Mounce ◽  
...  

The erosion of the cohesive layers of particulate matter that causes discolouration in water distribution system mains has previously been modelled using the Prediction of Discolouration in Distribution Systems (PODDS) model. When first proposed, PODDS featured an unvalidated means by which material regeneration on pipe walls could be simulated. Field and laboratory studies of material regeneration have yielded data that suggest that the PODDS formulations incorrectly model these processes. A new model is proposed to overcome this shortcoming. It tracks the relative amount of discolouration material that is bound to the pipe wall over time at each of a number of shear strengths. The model formulations and a mass transport model have been encoded as software, which has been used to verify the model's constructs and undertake sensitivity analyses. The new formulations for regeneration are conceptually consistent with field and laboratory observed data and have potential value in the proactive management of water distribution systems, such as evaluating change in discolouration risk and planning timely interventions.


2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110380
Author(s):  
Agam Tomar ◽  
Henry V Burton ◽  
Ali Mosleh

A framework for dynamically updating post-earthquake functional recovery forecasts is presented to reduce the epistemic uncertainty in the predictive model. A Bayesian Network (BN) model is used to provide estimates of the total recovery time, and a process-based discrete event simulation (PBDES) model generates forecasts of the complete recovery trajectory. Both models rely on component damage and duration-based input parameters that are dynamically updated using Bayes’ theorem, as information becomes available throughout the recovery process. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through an application to the pipe network of the City of Napa water distribution system. More specifically, pipe damage and repair data from the 2014 earthquake are used as a point of comparison for the dynamic forecasts. It is shown that, over time, the mean value of the total recovery duration generated by the BN-based model converges to the observed value and the dispersion is reduced. Also, despite a crude initial estimate, the median trajectory generated by the PBDES model provides a reasonable approximation of the observed recovery within 30 days following the earthquake. The proposed framework can be used by emergency managers to investigate the efficacy of post-event mitigation measures (e.g. crew allocation, resource prioritization) utilizing the most current data and knowledge.


2016 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 25-30
Author(s):  
Basistha Adhakari

Many large irrigation projects in Nepal operate under command area development works that emphasize on-farm water distribution and management. These projects have specific design characteristics that were planned to comply with available water resources, climatic conditions, soil type, and water distribution technology. The water distribution technologies differ based on the design needs of each individual project and the design preferences of various foreign consulting firms. This article focuses on the issues of planning and designing water distribution systems of large irrigation systems at the irrigation service delivery level. The layout planning of an irrigation system is an important aspect of design for water distribution, typically guided by hierarchical system. This article also highlights the existing canal hierarchy of these systems and their appropriateness for efficient water distribution. Furthermore, the appropriateness of the structured system is also examined in the Sunsari Morang Irrigation Project. The article concluded with some suggestions for planning and designing command area development works of forthcoming large irrigation projects such as the Sikta Irrigation Project, the Babai Irrigation Project, and the Mahakali Irrigation Project Stage-III.HYDRO Nepal JournalJournal of Water, Energy and EnvironmentIssue: 19Page: 25-30


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document