scholarly journals MACRO-ECONOMIC FACTORS OF SINO-US TRADE IMBALANCET

2020 ◽  
pp. 39-57
Author(s):  
Ji. Shi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Influencing Factor ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Imbalance ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors

China is one of the developing countries with the most rapid development and the U.S. is de-veloped country with the strongest economic strength, economic development of the two coun-tries has become main impetus of the world economic growth. Sino-US bilateral trade has be-come the most important constituent part of global trade. With the rapid development of Sino-US bilateral trade, trade imbalance also lead great concern of the two governments and academic circles, especially after China entered into WTO, the problem of Sino-US trade imbalance be-come even more serious. This paper mainly analyzes the influence of macroeconomic factors on China-US trade deficit, as economists generally believe that savings and exchange rates are closely related to trade balance. Undervalued exchange rate can keep relatively low prices for products made in China, while the booming domestic demand in the United States provides China with a wide variety of external market opportunities. This paper points out that difference in saving rates between the two countries is an important macroeconomic reason for the contin-ued growth of China’s trade surplus with the United States in international trade. The RMB exchange rate is an influencing factor, but not a fundamental one.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture

2009 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungho Baek ◽  
Won W. Koo ◽  
Kranti Mulik
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Series Data ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Trading Partners

This study examines the dynamic effects of changes in exchange rates on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 15 major trading partners. Special attention is paid to investigate whether or not the J-curve hypothesis holds for U.S. agricultural trade. For this purpose, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied to quarterly time-series data from 1989 and 2007. Results show that the exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining the short- and long-run behavior of U.S. agricultural trade. However, we find little evidence of the J-curve phenomenon for U.S. agricultural products with the United States’ major trading partners.

A Comparative Study between Sino-US and Japan-US Trade Frictions with Big Data Technology

2014 ◽  
Vol 687-691 ◽  
pp. 4950-4954 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong Sheng Lv ◽  
Chun Hui Wang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Healthy Development ◽  
Trade Friction ◽  
Trade Sanctions ◽  
Trade Frictions ◽  
Big Data Technology

China and the United States are the two largest economies in the world, and there is a strong complementarily between their economies, so the volume of their bilateral trade is also very large. However, with the development of trade exchanges, bilateral trade friction also intensifies; especially in recent years, American trade deficit with China has grown very rapidly. In order to reverse the situation, the United States launched several trade litigations and implemented tough trade sanctions against China. It led to trade disputes between the two countries, which seriously damaged the healthy development of Sino-US relation. So we compares the similarities and differences between the two trade frictions, pointing out both valuable experience and negative lessons from Japan in handling Japan-US trade friction, so as to provide reference to China for easing Sino-US trade friction.

The Mouse that Roared

1987 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
STEVE CHAN
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Coping Behavior ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Trade Area ◽  
Damage Limitation ◽  
Containment Policy

This analysis seeks to contribute to the growing literature on the subject of “the weak in the world of the strong.” It examines Taiwan's attempts to cope with U.S. commerical pressure in view of its mounting bilateral trade surplus in the recent years ($10.6 billion in 1985, and $6.2 billion in the first half of 1986). Taiwan's past ability to achieve relatively favorable outcomes in its commerical dealings with the United States is explained at two levels. At the more micro level of bargaining tactics used by the weak in managing the strong, attention is directed to Taiwan's resort to: (1) problem redefinition, (2) damage limitation, (3) exploring loopholes, (4) linkage politics, and (5) transnational coalitions. These measures are complemented by more long-term and basic economic adaptation termed positive adjustment. At the more macro level, two prerequisites suggested by Yoffie (1983) for successful adaptation in a protectionist and competitive economic environment are discussed: (1) Taiwan's policy capacity, and (2) U.S. accommodative behavior. Taiwan's institutional capabilities (especially in terms of the autonomy and strength of the state), and its historical niche in U.S. domestic politics and Washington's Cold War containment policy are examined. The discussion argues that Taiwan's coping behavior in the trade area must be understood in the broader context of a metagame that seeks to preserve vital political and security contributions from the United States as well.

scholarly journals Sino-US Trade Imbalance and Sino-US Economic Gap

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-18
Author(s):  
Jiandong Shi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Imbalance ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
The Core ◽  
Core Content ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth

Since the Sino-US trade imbalance is regarded as the core content of the global economic imbalance, it has always been controversial and caused frequent bilateral trade disputes and frictions. Superficially it seems that China has gained tremendous trade benefits from China's huge surplus with the United States, which is also a significant cause for China's rapid economic growth. However, from the results of other scholars, it does not seem to be this. Actually, China is at a disadvantage in the distribution of trade benefits, which makes the economic gap between China and the United States widening. This paper aims to explain this phenomenon by judging the distribution of trade benefits from the overall impact of trade on a country's economy.

scholarly journals The Inflexible Yuan and Global Imbalances

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 1850144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony J. Makin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
The United States ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Global Imbalances ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
National Production

This paper evaluates China's exchange rate policy and current account surplus in the context of its rapid development. Recognizing that external imbalances reflect divergent national production and expenditure growth within both China and its trading partners, it contends that yuan exchange rate undervaluation against major currencies is central to any explanation of global imbalances. This misalignment artificially assists China's output growth and limits its household consumption, thereby slowing the rise in China's living standards. Meanwhile, due to currency misalignment, China's industrialized trading partners, most notably the United States and European Union, simultaneously experience larger bilateral current account deficits with China, lower output, lower saving and higher investment than otherwise. Further significant appreciation of China's exchange rate would simultaneously reduce China's huge trade surplus and the bilateral deficits of its trading partners, thereby alleviating international trade tensions.

scholarly journals Predictably Unpredictable Trade Policy – the United States versus All Others

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. S. DMITRIEV
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Market Access ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Import Restrictions

The article explores the Trump administration’s trade policy,  characterized by: attempts to rewrite the rules of international trade  according to the regulations established by the American side, “skepticism” with respect to the international regulatory  institutions of foreign trade, a course on the renegotiation of the  existing agreements. In a relationship with a number of countries,  manifestations of “ultimatizm” – the desire to negotiate with them from a position of strength are becoming increasingly evident.  Relapses of economic isolationism under the slogan “Restore the Greatness of America” periodically are being transformed into  concrete protectionist actions. The number of imposed import restrictions is growing, and their arsenal is expanding. It is  concluded, that tightening of the market access to the domestic  market for foreign suppliers is unlikely to lead to a significant  reduction in the US trade deficit. Bet on abandoning multilateral  arrangements in favor of bilateral trade agreements, conscious  downplaying of the role and importance of the WTO and other  international institutions can also be counterproductive. Focus on  dominance in the sphere of foreign economic activity apparently will remain the main direction of Trump trade policy until the end of the  term of his administration. However, under pressure from competitors, and because of the lack of real allies, the United States  will be forced to demonstrate greater flexibility and pragmatism, the  propensity to compromise and to establishment of temporary or  permanent blocs with their main trading partners. The idea of  “normality”, refraining from populism, will gradually begin to return  to the trade policy of this country. If, however the Trump  government will continue to act in isolation, without taking into  account the opinion of the world community, an increasing number  of partners of the United States will perceive it not as a leader, but as a violator of the rules of international trade. Under certain  circumstances, such a policy can provoke local and global trade  conflicts. In addition, the United States not necessarily will have to be the winner in them.

The Day After Tomorrow: Evaluating the Burden of Trump's Trade War

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meixin Guo ◽  
Lin Lu ◽  
Liugang Sheng ◽  
Miaojie Yu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Unilateral Action ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Welfare Losses ◽  
Trade War

During his U.S. presidential campaign Donald Trump threatened China with the imposition of high import tariffs on its exports to the United States. To evaluate the repercussions of such an action, this paper uses Eaton and Kortum's 2002 multi-sector, multi-country general equilibrium model with intersectional linkages to forecast how exports, imports, output, and real wages would change if Trump's threat of 45 percent tariffs is carried out. To view plausible scenarios, we evaluate the case of a unilateral action on the part of the United States, as well as a scenario where China retaliates by imposing an equally high 45 percent tariff on its imports from the United States. In addition, because the high U.S. trade deficit with China is a factor that underpins calls for tariff action, we explore simulations where the trade balance is restored to balance as well as a scenario in which the trade balance is unchanged. In all of the scenarios, the calibration exercise suggests that a trade war triggered by high U.S. import tariffs will lead to a collapse in U.S.–China bilateral trade. In all of the scenarios, the United States will experience large social welfare losses, whereas China may lose or gain slightly depending on the effect of trade war on the U.S.–China trade balance. Globally, some small open economies may experience small benefits, while other countries may suffer collateral damage.

Poverty and Protectionism

1988 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 25-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Y. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Consistent Pattern ◽  
Trade Imbalance ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Major Consideration ◽  
The U.S

The United States had a trade deficit of $170 billion in 1987 and, even though the value of the dollar has been declining, the deficit has shown no consistent pattern of improvement. The magnitude and persistence of the trade imbalance has led to a great deal of discussion of its impact on the U.S. economy and of policies that might be used to correct the imbalance. One major consideration that is often overlooked is the distributional and equity effect of the trade situation on the poor. While some advocates embrace protectionist policies as a means of “saving” jobs for low-income Americans, others argue that these measures raise the cost of goods used by the poor with no guarantee that jobs are actually saved. The following article reviews the available evidence on the position of low-income Americans under a policy of protectionism.

scholarly journals TARIFF ELIMINATION UNDER THE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP AND ITS IMPACT ON INDONESIA’S TRADE BALANCE

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Pritish Kumar Sahu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
Gains And Losses ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: Indonesia has signed, and is in the process of signing, many bilateral and regional Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Whether these trade agreements will benefit Indonesia on the economic front or not is still a matter for discussion. Background Problem: Signing TPP, raises many questions as to how this would affect the countries in Asian regions, including Indonesia. Novelty: Considering the criticism of CGE (Computer General Equilibrium) model, this paper uses the SMART simulation model, based on a partial equilibrium approach, to estimate the aggregate and commodity-level gains and losses for Indonesia with its partner countries during the post-tariff elimination period. Research Method: This study uses the World Bank’s World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) Database. This database contains trade data for all the countries under a different nomenclature viz. at the two-digit, four-digit, and six-digit level. We use the HS-classified nomenclature at the six-digit level in order to estimate the impact of the removal of tariffs on Indonesia’s trade, i.e. both exports and imports. Findings: The finding reveals that if Indonesia does not take part in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, it will still have a trade surplus of $1.6 billion with the Trans-Pacific countries but joining the bloc would result in a trade deficit of $19 million. Joining the bloc would increase the imports from Japan, followed by the United States and Australia as against an increase in exports to the United States, followed by Malaysia and Vietnam. The post Trans-Pacific Partnership period will have many implications for Indonesia, it may face difficulties exporting to the member countries, even with an existing trade agreement, while in the long run the Trans-Pacific Partnership bloc could limit Indonesia’s trade prospects with these Pacific Rim countries and it may limit Indonesia influencing WTO outcomes. Conclusion: Trade agreements seem to have benefited Indonesia’s economy and its people in many ways over the years, even though it has an important cost for some people.

Bilateral Trade Balance, Exchange Rates, and Income: Evidence from Malaysia

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1850183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed B. Yusoff
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bilateral Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bilateral Trade Balance ◽  
The Usa

This study attempts to examine the effects of real bilateral exchange rates on Malaysia's bilateral trade balances with its three major trading partners: the USA, Japan, and Singapore. The results suggest that the bilateral trade balance, real exchange rate, domestic and foreign incomes are cointegrated. In the long-run, Malaysia's bilateral trade balances are found to be responsive to the changes of bilateral exchange rate in the cases of the USA and Singapore but irresponsive for Japan. There is a clear evidence of the J-curve effect only in the case of Malaysia's trade balance with the United States. The results also indicate that devaluation tends to be recessionary. The findings suggest that Malaysia could use undervalued exchange rate strategy to improve its trade balances with the United States and Singapore but not Japan.

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