scholarly journals Binomial Count Information: How Do the Usual Approximations Fare?

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. p1
Author(s):  
Edward J. Lusk
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Research Report ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Positive Error ◽  
False Positive Error ◽  
Exact Probability ◽  
Normal Approximations ◽  
Economic Necessity ◽  
Error Risk

Focus Decision-making is often aided by examining False Positive Error-risk profiles [FPEs]. In this research report, the decision-making jeopardy that one invites by eschewing the Exact factorial-binomial Probability-values used to form the FPEs in favor of: (i) Normal Approximations [NA], or (ii) Continuity-Corrected Normal Approximations [CCNA] is addressed. Results Referencing an audit context where testing sample sizes for Re-Performance & Re-Calculation protocols are, by economic necessity, in the range of 20 to 100 account items, there are indications that audit decisions would benefit by using the Exact Probability-values. Specifically, using a jeopardy-screen of ±2.5% created by benchmarking the NA & the CCNA by the Exact FPEs, it is observed that: (i) for sample sizes of 100 there is little difference between the Exact and the CCNA FPEs, (ii) almost uniformly for both sample extremes of 20 and 100, the FPEs created using the NA are lower and outside the jeopardy screen, finally (iii) for the CCNA-arm for sample sizes of n = 20, only sometimes are the CCNA FPEs interior to the jeopardy screen. These results call into question not using the Exact Factorial Binomial results. Finally, an illustrative example is offered of an A priori FPE-risk Decision-Grid that can be parametrized and used in a decision-making context.

Prophetic Leadership Model: Conceptualizing a Prophet’s Leadership Behaviour, Leader-Follower Mutuality and Altruism to Decision Making Quality

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Nik Maheran Nik Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Network ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Complex Function ◽  
Spiritual Leadership ◽  
Leadership Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Leadership Model ◽  
Leadership Behaviour ◽  
Current Leadership

This article advocates that research is lacking on the connection between leadership theory and social network theory. To date, little empirical research has been conducted on leadership and social networks. Thus, the proposition of this article goes beyond traditional leadership models to advocate for a fuller and more integrative focus that is multilevel, multi-component and interdisciplinary, while recognizing that leadership is a complex function of both the organisational leaders and the followers who perform tasks, all of which subsequently leads to decision making qualities. Indeed, the current leadership model focuses on leadership behaviour and the ability to gain followers mutuality, to achieve decision making quality involving the integration of leadership and social network theories. Given the apparent mutable palette of contemporary leadership theory, this emergent construct of the leadership paradigm can expand the poles of the leadership continuum and contribute to a richer and deeper understanding of the relationships and responsibilities of leaders and followers as they relate to decision making qualities. This new construct, which is termed prophetic leadership, explores the literature of the life experiences of the prophet in the ‘Abrahamic Faith’ religion. Drawing on a priori links between the personality trait and spiritual leadership that has recently garnered the interest of scholars, the present study asserts a normative leadership theory that links the personal quality of a leader, posture and principal (based on the Prophet’s leadership behaviour) to synergy and decision making quality. Altruism is proposed to enhance relationships between leadership behaviour and decision making quality. For future research, much work needs to be done specifically aiming to (a) achieve greater clarity of construct definitions, (b) address measurement issues, and (c) avoid construct redundancy.

Prophetic Leadership Model: Conceptualizing a Prophet’s Leadership Behaviour, Leader-Follower Mutuality and Altruism to Decision Making Quality

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Nik Maheran Nik Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Network ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Complex Function ◽  
Spiritual Leadership ◽  
Leadership Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Leadership Model ◽  
Leadership Behaviour ◽  
Current Leadership

This article advocates that research is lacking on the connection between leadership theory and social network theory. To date, little empirical research has been conducted on leadership and social networks. Thus, the proposition of this article goes beyond traditional leadership models to advocate for a fuller and more integrative focus that is multilevel, multi-component and interdisciplinary, while recognizing that leadership is a complex function of both the organisational leaders and the followers who perform tasks, all of which subsequently leads to decision making qualities. Indeed, the current leadership model focuses on leadership behaviour and the ability to gain followers mutuality, to achieve decision making quality involving the integration of leadership and social network theories. Given the apparent mutable palette of contemporary leadership theory, this emergent construct of the leadership paradigm can expand the poles of the leadership continuum and contribute to a richer and deeper understanding of the relationships and responsibilities of leaders and followers as they relate to decision making qualities. This new construct, which is termed prophetic leadership, explores the literature of the life experiences of the prophet in the ‘Abrahamic Faith’ religion. Drawing on a priori links between the personality trait and spiritual leadership that has recently garnered the interest of scholars, the present study asserts a normative leadership theory that links the personal quality of a leader, posture and principal (based on the Prophet’s leadership behaviour) to synergy and decision making quality. Altruism is proposed to enhance relationships between leadership behaviour and decision making quality. For future research, much work needs to be done specifically aiming to (a) achieve greater clarity of construct definitions, (b) address measurement issues, and (c) avoid construct redundancy.

Research and analysis of business management processes implemented under conditions of incomplete certainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Klimenko ◽  
A. Ivlev
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Business Management ◽  
Statistical Uncertainty ◽  
Management Processes ◽  
Classical Decision ◽  
Decision Making Criteria

The study carried out in this work made it possible to expand the rank scale for a priori assessment of the chosen strategy in terms of increasing the sensitivity of assessing the caution / negligence ratio using risky, as well as classical decision-making criteria under conditions of statistical uncertainty.

Forensic science evidence: Naive estimates of false positive error rates and reliability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristy Martire ◽  
Agnes Bali ◽  
Kaye Ballantyne ◽  
Gary Edmond ◽  
Richard Kemp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forensic Science ◽  
False Positive ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Forensic Sciences ◽  
Positive Error ◽  
False Positive Error ◽  
Reliability Estimates ◽  
Positive Report ◽  
Science Evidence ◽  
Science Disciplines

We do not know how often false positive reports are made in a range of forensic science disciplines. In the absence of this information it is important to understand the naive beliefs held by potential jurors about forensic science evidence reliability. It is these beliefs that will shape evaluations at trial. This descriptive study adds to our knowledge about naive beliefs by: 1) measuring jury-eligible (lay) perceptions of reliability for the largest range of forensic science disciplines to date, over three waves of data collection between 2011 and 2016 (n = 674); 2) calibrating reliability ratings with false positive report estimates; and 3) comparing lay reliability estimates with those of an opportunity sample of forensic practitioners (n = 53). Overall the data suggest that both jury-eligible participants and practitioners consider forensic evidence highly reliable. When compared to best or plausible estimates of reliability and error in the forensic sciences these views appear to overestimate reliability and underestimate the frequency of false positive errors. This result highlights the importance of collecting and disseminating empirically derived estimates of false positive error rates to ensure that practitioners and potential jurors have a realistic impression of the value of forensic science evidence.

scholarly journals When Does HARKing Hurt? Identifying When Different Types of Undisclosed Post Hoc Hypothesizing Harm Scientific Progress

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 308-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Rubin
Keyword(s):  
Philosophy Of Science ◽  
Present Article ◽  
Literature Search ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Scientific Progress ◽  
Research Report ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Replication Crisis ◽  
Post Hoc

Hypothesizing after the results are known, or HARKing, occurs when researchers check their research results and then add or remove hypotheses on the basis of those results without acknowledging this process in their research report ( Kerr, 1998 ). In the present article, I discuss 3 forms of HARKing: (a) using current results to construct post hoc hypotheses that are then reported as if they were a priori hypotheses; (b) retrieving hypotheses from a post hoc literature search and reporting them as a priori hypotheses; and (c) failing to report a priori hypotheses that are unsupported by the current results. These 3 types of HARKing are often characterized as being bad for science and a potential cause of the current replication crisis. In the present article, I use insights from the philosophy of science to present a more nuanced view. Specifically, I identify the conditions under which each of these 3 types of HARKing is most and least likely to be bad for science. I conclude with a brief discussion about the ethics of each type of HARKing.

scholarly journals Publicity and Common Commitment to Believe

Erkenntnis ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. G. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Functional Role ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Common Belief ◽  
A Posteriori ◽  
Standard Analysis ◽  
Joint Intention ◽  
Normative Role

AbstractInformation can be public among a group. Whether or not information is public matters, for example, for accounts of interdependent rational choice, of communication, and of joint intention. A standard analysis of public information identifies it with (some variant of) common belief. The latter notion is stipulatively defined as an infinite conjunction: for p to be commonly believed is for it to believed by all members of a group, for all members to believe that all members believe it, and so forth. This analysis is often presupposed without much argument in philosophy. Theoretical entrenchment or intuitions about cases might give some traction on the question, but give little insight about why the identification holds, if it does. The strategy of this paper is to characterize a practical-normative role for information being public, and show that the only things that play that role are (variants of) common belief as stipulatively characterized. In more detail: a functional role for “taking a proposition for granted” in non-isolated decision making is characterized. I then present some minimal conditions under which such an attitude is correctly held. The key assumption links this attitude to beliefs about what is public. From minimal a priori principles, we can argue that a proposition being public among a group entails common commitment to believe among that group. Later sections explore partial converses to this result, the factivity of publicity and publicity from the perspective of outsiders to the group, and objections to the aprioricity of the result deriving from a posteriori existential presuppositions.

scholarly journals Adolescent condom use in Southern Africa: narrative systematic review and conceptual model of multilevel barriers and facilitators

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Áine Aventin ◽  
Sarah Gordon ◽  
Christina Laurenzi ◽  
Stephan Rabie ◽  
Mark Tomlinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Condom Use ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Sex Education ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Barriers And Facilitators ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Structural Level ◽  
Interpersonal Barriers

Abstract Background Adolescent HIV and pregnancy rates in Southern Africa are amongst the highest in the world. Despite decades of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) programming targeting adolescents, recent trends suggest there is a continued need for interventions targeting condom use for this age group. Methods This review synthesises evidence from qualitative studies that describe the determinants of condom use among adolescents in Southern Africa. We conducted systematic searches in four databases. Data were extracted, appraised for quality and analysed using a ‘best-fit’ framework synthesis approach. Results We coded deductively findings from 23 original studies using an a priori framework and subsequently conducted thematic analysis. Synthesised findings produced six key themes relating to: 1) pervasive unequal gender norms and restrictive masculinities favouring male sexual decision-making and stigmatising condom use in committed relationships; 2) other social norms reflecting negative constructions of adolescent sexuality and non-traditional family planning; 3) economic and political barriers including poverty and a lack of policy support for condom use; 4) service-level barriers including a lack of youth-friendly SRH services and comprehensive sex education in schools; 5) interpersonal barriers and facilitators including unequal power dynamics in sexual partnerships, peer influences and encouraging condoning condom use, and inadequate communication about SRH from parents/caregivers; and 6) negative attitudes and beliefs about condoms and condom use among adolescents. A conceptual model was generated to describe determinants of condom use, illustrating individual-, interpersonal- and structural-level barriers and facilitating factors. Conclusion SRH programming targeting barriers and facilitators of condom use at multiple levels is recommended in Southern Africa. We present a multilevel integrated model of barriers and facilitators to guide adolescent SRH decision-making, programme planning and evaluation. Given the existence of multilevel barriers and facilitators, interventions should, likewise, take a multilevel approach that incorporates locally relevant understanding of the individual-, interpersonal- and structural-level barriers and facilitators to condom use among adolescents in the region.

scholarly journals Hierarchical Decision-Making Problems – Modeling and Solutions

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 311-324
Author(s):  
Tadeusz Krupa ◽  
Teresa Ostrowska
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Organizational Structures ◽  
The State ◽  
Hierarchical Decision Making ◽  
University Of Technology ◽  
Hierarchical Decision ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Key Issues

Abstract Article illustrates the state of the work conducted at the Faculty of Management Warsaw University of Technology on the issue of modeling hierarchical decision-making problems in the context of administrative and infrastructural conditions of the various forms of public safety. The aim is to develop a universal methodology of conduct for the management needs of the public administration, whose powers are focused on maintaining the continuity of the critical infrastructure of the State. The key issues covered by the article are: modeling of hierarchical issues and decision-making processes in the multi-layered organizational structures; harmonization of scales significance of decisionmaking areas with significance weights of elementary decisions in these decision areas; and a priori contradictions of elementary decisions from different decision areas and value assessments of taken problem decisions.

“Tell Me More and Help Me to Decide, Doctor” – Information Seeking Attitudes and Use of Information Resources in Patients with Depression

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. S146-S146
Author(s):  
H. Almeida ◽  
A.M. Pisco Almeida ◽  
M. Figueiredo-Braga
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Seeking ◽  
Psychiatric Treatment ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Information Resources ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Mental Condition ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Convenience Sample

IntroductionShared decision-making (SDM) has shown to improve adherence, decrease hospitalization, and enhance knowledge of the illness and satisfaction with mental health services. Eliciting each patient's preferences for information allows tailoring the physician behavior according perspectives and expectations. Patients with depression (PWD) have frequently limited information regarding the availability and efficacy of psychiatric treatments.Aims/objectivesUnveil information seeking attitudes of patients with depression and their a priori use of digital sources of information.MethodsA convenience sample of PWD was submitted to a battery of self-report questionnaires. Standardized instruments were used to measure information seeking attitudes and the accessibility and usage of digital information resources.ResultsThirty-six patients were inquired, with a mean age of 39.8 (13.4) years. Information-seeking preferences were high, with an API-I score of 90.1 (13.8). Preferences for information-seeking behaviors were higher in severely depressed (P = 0.010) and less educated (P = 0.026) patients. Preferences were negatively correlated with length of psychiatric treatment (r = −0.514; P = 0.002). Sixty-one percent had a priori information regarding their psychiatric problem, and 68.8% considered it was influential in the decision-making behavior. Access and use of digital resources were correlated with education level (0.644; P = 0.000 and 0.554; P = 0.003), age (−0.357; P = 0.001 and −0.559; P = 0.007) and illness severity (−0.431; P = 0.04).ConclusionPatients with depression want to be informed about their mental condition and treatment options. Few resources are used and decision mostly relies on health professional's opinion and guidance. Accessible resources seem scarce and future research shall address the acceptance and impact of decisional-aid instruments on this population.

Error Rates in Competency Testing When Test Retaking Is Permitted

1990 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huynh Huynh
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
False Positive ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Rasch Models ◽  
Positive Error ◽  
False Positive Error ◽  
Competency Testing ◽  
Negative Error ◽  
False Negative Error

False positive and false negative error rates are studied for competency testing where examinees are permitted to retake the test if they fail to pass. Formulae are provided for the beta-binomial and Rasch models, and estimates based on these two models are compared for several typical situations. Although Rasch estimates are expected to be more accurate than beta-binomial estimates, differences among them are found not to be substantial in a number of practical situations. Under relatively general conditions and when test retaking is permitted, the probability of making a false negative error is zero. Under the same situation, and given that an examinee is a true nonmaster, the conditional probability of making a false positive error for this examinee is one.

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