scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF 10-YEAR RISK OF DEVELOPING A MAJOR CARDIOVASCULAR EVENT IN PATIENTS ATTENDING A HOSPITAL FOR THE TREATMENT OF OTHER DISORDERS

Author(s):  
M. MAHIMA SWAROOPA ◽  
REDDY PRAVEEN ◽  
S. K. LAL SAHEB ◽  
S. K. SAI RINNISHA ◽  
P. SARANYA ◽  
...  

Objective: To assess the individual’s predicted risk of developing a CVD event in 10 y using risk scores among persons with other disorders/diseases. Methods: This is a cross-sectional observational study conducted for a period of 6 mo among 283 subjects. Total risk was estimated individually by using Framingham Risk Scoring Algorithm and ASCVD risk estimator. Results: According to Framingham Risk score the prevalence of low risk (<10%) identified as 67.84% (192), followed by intermediate risk (10%-19%), 19.08% (54), and high risk (≥20%) 13.07% (37). By using ASCVD Risk estimator, risk has reported in our study population was low risk (<5%) is 48.76% (138), borderline risk (5-7.4%) is 13.07% (37), intermediate risk (7.5-19.9%) is about 25.09% (71), high risk (>20%) is about 13.07% (37). Conclusion: In this study burden of CVD risk was relatively low, which was estimated by both the Framingham scale and ASCVD Risk estimator. Risk scoring of individuals helps us to identify the patients at high risk of CV diseases and also helps in providing management strategies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amal M. Qasem Surrati ◽  
Walaa Mohammedsaeed ◽  
Ahlam B. El Shikieri

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the most common cause of death and disability worldwide. Saudi Arabia, one of the middle-income countries has a proportional CVD mortality rate of 37%. Knowledge about CVD and its modifiable risk factors is a vital pre-requisite to change the health attitudes, behaviors, and lifestyle practices of individuals. Therefore, we intended to assess the employee knowledge about risk of CVD, symptoms of heart attacks, and stroke, and to calculate their future 10-years CVD risk. An epidemiological, cross-sectional, community-facility based study was conducted. The women aged ≥40 years who are employees of Taibah University, Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah were recruited. A screening self-administrative questionnaire was distributed to the women to exclude those who are not eligible. In total, 222 women met the inclusion criteria and were invited for the next step for the determination of CVD risk factors by using WHO STEPS questionnaire: It is used for the surveillance of non-communicable disease risk factor, such as CVD. In addition, the anthropometric measurements and biochemical measurements were done. Based on the identified atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk factors and laboratory testing results, risk calculated used the Framingham Study Cardiovascular Disease (10-year) Risk Assessment. Data were analyzed using GraphPad Prism 7 software (GraphPad Software, CA, USA). The result showed the mean age of study sample was 55.6 ± 9.0 years. There was elevated percentage of obesity and rise in abdominal circumference among the women. Hypertension (HTN) was a considerable chronic disease among the participants where more than half of the sample had it, i.e., 53%. According to the ASCVD risk estimator, the study participants were distributed into four groups: 63.1% at low risk, 20.2% at borderline risk, 13.5% at intermediate risk, and 3.2% at high risk. A comparison between these categories based on the CVD 10-year risk estimator indicated that there were significant variations between the low-risk group and the intermediate and high-risk groups (P = 0.02 and P = 0.001, respectively). The multivariate analysis detected factors related to CVD risk for women who have an intermediate or high risk of CVD, such as age, smoking, body mass index (BMI), unhealthy diet, blood pressure (BP) measurements, and family history of CVD (P &lt; 0.05). The present study reports limited knowledge and awareness of CVD was 8.6 that is considered as low knowledge. In conclusion, the present study among the university sample in Madinah reported limited knowledge and awareness of CVD risk. These findings support the need for an educational program to enhance the awareness of risk factors and prevention of CVD.



2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Sebastian Lohmann ◽  
Tobias Brix ◽  
Julian Varghese ◽  
Nils Warneke ◽  
Michael Schwake ◽  
...  

OBJECTIVEVarious quality indicators are currently under investigation, aiming at measuring the quality of care in neurosurgery; however, the discipline currently lacks practical scoring systems for accurately assessing risk. The aim of this study was to develop three accurate, easy-to-use risk scoring systems for nosocomial infections, reoperations, and adverse events for patients with cerebral and spinal tumors.METHODSThe authors developed a semiautomatic registry with administrative and clinical data and included all patients with spinal or cerebral tumors treated between September 2017 and May 2019. Patients were further divided into development and validation cohorts. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to develop risk scores by assigning points based on β coefficients, and internal validation of the scores was performed.RESULTSIn total, 1000 patients were included. An unplanned 30-day reoperation was observed in 6.8% of patients. Nosocomial infections were documented in 7.4% of cases and any adverse event in 14.5%. The risk scores comprise variables such as emergency admission, nursing care level, ECOG performance status, and inflammatory markers on admission. Three scoring systems, NoInfECT for predicting the incidence of nosocomial infections (low risk, 1.8%; intermediate risk, 8.1%; and high risk, 26.0% [p < 0.001]), LEUCut for 30-day unplanned reoperations (low risk, 2.2%; intermediate risk, 6.8%; and high risk, 13.5% [p < 0.001]), and LINC for any adverse events (low risk, 7.6%; intermediate risk, 15.7%; and high risk, 49.5% [p < 0.001]), showed satisfactory discrimination between the different outcome groups in receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (AUC ≥ 0.7).CONCLUSIONSThe proposed risk scores allow efficient prediction of the likelihood of adverse events, to compare quality of care between different providers, and further provide guidance to surgeons on how to allocate preoperative care.



Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Calina-Patricia Tentea ◽  
Roxana Chiorescu ◽  
Sorin Crisan ◽  
Sorin Pop ◽  
Jeremy N Ruskin ◽  
...  

Introduction: We have previously demonstrated that isolated very low QRS voltage (VLV defined as ≤0.3mV) in the frontal leads on the electrocardiogram (ECG; Figure A), as well as flat QRS loops in the frontal plane on ECG-derived vectorcardiograms (VCG; Figure B) predict recurrence of neurally mediated syncope (NMS). This phenomenon is possibly related to a specific ventricular geometry and activation pattern. Hypothesis: The aim of this study was to attempt to incorporate these novel ECG and VCG risk factors for recurrence of syncope into a prognostic risk score. Methods: We included 215 patients (age 48±20years), with NMS and a median of 3 syncopal episodes. The patients were followed for a median of 10 months (IQR 4-20). To weigh the relative importance of the prognostic risk factors identified in multivariate Cox regression analysis we attributed a score of 1 point for HR 1.5-1.99, 2 points for HR 2.0-2.49, and 3 points for HR ≥ 2.5. The total risk score, was divided into three categories: low risk (0-2), intermediate risk (3-5) and high risk (≥6). Results: The multivariate analysis identified history of ≥ 2 syncopal events (HR 3.85, 95%CI 1.62-9.14), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter of < 39mm by echocardiography (HR 1.94, 95%CI 1.00-3.82), isolated VLV QRS in frontal leads (HR 2.60, 95%CI 1.37-4.86) and flat QRS VCG loops in frontal plane (HR 2.23, 95%CI 1.24-3.99) as independent predictors for NMS recurrence (all P < 0.05). The actuarial total syncope recurrence rate at 1 year was 54.6% (95%CI 38.2-72.6) in the high-risk score category, 25.3% (95%CI 16.8-37.1) in the intermediate risk category, and 6.2% (95%CI 2.2-16.2) in the low-risk category (log rank test P<0.0001; Figure C). The ROC curve showed an AUC of 0.77 for the predictive value of the total risk score. Conclusions: The risk of recurrence of NMS could be stratified using a risk score that incorporates novel ECG and VCG parameters in addition to more established clinical and echocardiographic variables.



2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S367-S368
Author(s):  
Mark Liotta ◽  
Peter Cangialosi ◽  
Jeanne Ho ◽  
Diana Finkel ◽  
Shobha Swaminathan ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The American College of Cardiology (ACC) recognizes HIV as a risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, 2019 guidelines do not address people living with HIV (PLWH), aside from stating that their Risk Estimator Plus tool, which is used to calculate a 10-year risk for ASCVD and advise management, likely underestimates CVD risk in PLWH. This quality assessment project examines rates of ACC guideline adherence for ASCVD prevention for PLWH who have calculated risk scores in the low (&lt; 7.5%), intermediate (&gt; 7.5% & &lt; 20%), and high-risk (&gt; 20%) ranges. Patients analyzed are from an HIV registry of University Hospital Infectious Disease Outpatient clinic in Newark, NJ. The clinic’s 2451 total patients are 40% female, 63% non-Hispanic black, 23% Hispanic, and 64% &gt; 45 years old. Methods This project was approved by the Rutgers IRB. Patients (40-79 years) with a clinic visit from 2/1/2019 to 1/31/2020 were reviewed. ASCVD risk scores were calculated using the Risk Estimator Plus for all patients when data was available. Guideline adherence rate was defined as following 2019 ACC guidelines for appropriate statin therapy, while considering medication interactions. Results Of the 1127 patients who met criteria, 744 ASCVD risk scores were calculated. Lipid values outside the calculator range (229) or no documented lipids (154) resulted in non-calculatable scores. Guideline adherence rate for the intermediate-risk group was significantly less than the high-risk and low-risk groups (P&lt; 0.05): low-risk 92.8% (95% CI 90.0-95.1, n=346), intermediate-risk 35.2% (95% CI 29.7-41.1, n=270), and high-risk 52.3% (95% CI 43.8-60.8, n=128). Adherence rates within the intermediate-risk group for patients with hypertension (HTN) and smokers were significantly less than those with CVD (P&lt; 0.05). Table 1: Patients with Calculated ASCVD Risk Score &gt; 20 for PLWH from 2/1/2019 – 1/31/2020 Table 2: Patients with Calculated ASCVD Risk Score &gt; 7.5 & &lt; 20 for PLWH from 2/1/2019 – 1/31/2020 Table 3: Patients with Calculated ASCVD Risk Score &lt; 7.5 for PLWH from 2/1/2019 – 1/31/2020 Conclusion Lower overall guideline adherence rates within the intermediate risk group, and particularly among those with a history of HTN and smoking, highlights the need for targeted care. Provider education on the calculation and application of ASCVD risk scores, as well as increased awareness of the risk-enhancing nature of HIV infection in coexistence with the traditional risk factors of CVD history, diabetes, HTN, and smoking are important steps to increase adherence rates. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures



2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mulugeta Molla Birhanu ◽  
Roger G Evans ◽  
Ayse Zengin ◽  
Michaela A Riddell ◽  
Kartik Kalyanram ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs) have limited resources to tackle the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Most screening guidelines recommend the use of absolute risk scoring to determine treatment, but there is uncertainty among policy makers and clinicians about which risk algorithm to choose. We aimed to compare laboratory-based absolute CVD risk algorithms in a LMIC setting. Methods The study was conducted in the Rishi Valley, Andhra Pradesh, India. Over 8,000 participants were surveyed between 2012-2015. The 10-year absolute risk was computed and compared using the Framingham, WHO, and Australian absolute risk CVD algorithms. Results In participants aged 35-74 years, 151 (3%) had prior CVD. In all algorithms, absolute CVD risk increased with age and was greater in men than women. Using the WHO algorithm 4% were characterized as high-risk while &gt;29% were at high-risk using the Australian risk tool. Agreement of risk classification among men ranged from a high of 84% (Spearman’s rho (rs) =0.92) between Australian and Framingham algorithms to 43% (rs=0.6) between the Australian and WHO risk scores. Among the high-risk population, only 15% were on lipid-lowering or antihypertensive therapy. Conclusions The Framingham and Australian risk scores enable some discrimination between high- and low-risk groups. However, the WHO algorithm underestimates these high-risk groups. Even though one third of the participants were at high-risk, most of them were not receiving recommended treatment. Key messages Lab-based CVD risk assessment tools have the potential in identifying high-risk populations in LMICs but the WHO risk scoring tool should be used with caution.



2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
O Marchenko ◽  
N Rudenko ◽  
O Vnukov

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background. Coronary artery disease is the main cause of morbidity and mortality despite the effort of the healthcare system in different countries. There are numerous scores for estimation of developing adverse events we can use for patients. But it is the doctor`s discretion to select the scale. Purpose. To calculate the risk of developing adverse events from the cardiovascular system for patients on different scales and compare it with the data obtained from additional examinations. Methods. We examined 131 patients and calculated the risks of developing adverse events as for primary prevention patients on 3 scales, namely HeartScore (HS), Framingham Risk Score (FRS), and ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus. Patients were divided into 3 groups depending on coronary angiography results. Group A included patients without coronary lesion, group B – patients with non-stenotic coronary lesions or single-vessel disease, group C – patients with multivessel disease. Results. Patients were divided into three groups : group A contained 30 patients, group B and C–35 and 66 patients respectively. The groups were comparable in age (p = 0.39), body mass index (p = 0.43), and comorbidities. For the HS 9 patients (6,9%) had total cholesterol (TC) lower than 3 mmol/l and it was the reason for exclusion. For 7 patients (5.3%) the reasons to exclude for FRS was age (more than 79 years old) and very low TC (lower than 2.5 mmol/l). And 19 patients (14.5%) were excluded from calculated ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus due to age, low TC and low-density lipoprotein (LDL). According to the HS no groups have low risk of developing adverse events. In group A patients with moderate risk (53.3%) prevailed. Group B contained half of patients with high risk (51.7 %). Group C had 41.4% patients with high risk and 43.1% patients with very high risk of developing adverse events. FRS had dissimilar results in group A and showed that 73.3% of patients had low risk. Group B presented 34.5%, 41.4%, and 24.1% patients with low, moderate and high risk respectively. Group C had 41.4% of patients with moderate risk and 32.8% with high risk. ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus showed the following results. The majority of patients (41.4%) had intermediate risk in group A. Group B represented the largest number of patients with high risk (46.7%). Group C contained the biggest group of patients with high risk (58.5%). Results are represented in Figure 1 Conclusion. All scales have certain limitations such as the level of TC, LDL, age. Nevertheless, the FRS showed the highest percentage of low risk for patients who did not have coronary artery disease. At the same time HS revealed the largest number of patients in group C with multivessels diseases. These patients had a high and very high risk of developing cardiovascular events (84.5% in total). ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus has no advantages from the Scores. An additional disadvantage is that a lot of patients were excluded from the calculation (14.5%). Abstract Figure. Results of the different scores



2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (665) ◽  
pp. e881-e887 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Finnikin ◽  
Ronan Ryan ◽  
Tom Marshall

BackgroundStatin prescribing should be based on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but evidence suggests overtreatment of low-risk groups and undertreatment of high-risk groups.AimTo investigate the relationship between CVD risk scoring in primary care and initiation of statins for the primary prevention of CVD, and the effect of changes to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance in 2014.Design and settingHistorical cohort study using UK electronic primary care records.MethodA cohort was created of statin-naïve patients without CVD between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2015. CVD risk scores (calculated using QRISK2 available from 2012) and statin initiations were identified. Rates of CVD risk score recording were calculated and relationships between CVD risk category (low-, intermediate-, and high-risk: <10%, 10–19.9%, and ≥20% 10-year CVD risk) and statin initiation were analysed.ResultsA total of 1.4 million patients were identified from 248 practices. Of these, 151 788 had a recorded CVD risk score since 2012 (10.67%) and 217 860 were initiated on a statin (15.31%). Among patients initiated on a statin after 2012, 27.1% had a documented QRISK2 score: 2.7% of low-risk, 13.8% of intermediate-risk, and 35.0% of high-risk patients were initiated on statins. Statin initiation rates halved from a peak in 2006. After the 2014 NICE guidelines, statin initiation rates declined in high-risk patients but increased in intermediate-risk patients.ConclusionMost patients initiated on statins had no QRISK2 score recorded. Most patients at high risk of CVD were not initiated on statins. One in six statin initiations were to low-risk patients indicating significant overtreatment. Initiations of statins in intermediate-risk patients rose after NICE guidelines were updated in 2014.



Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 5280-5280
Author(s):  
Shu Chao Qin ◽  
Wei Xu ◽  
Yi Xia ◽  
Chun Qiao ◽  
Lei Fan ◽  
...  

Abstract Objection: Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a chronic lymphoproliferative disease characterized by highly clinical and biological heterogeneity. A number of biomarkers have been identified in predicting the overall survival (OS) over the last decades besides the traditional clinical staging. Recently, an international prognostic index (IPI) combing clinical staging and biomarkers was developed by the investigators of the Cochrane Haematological Malignancies Group. Due to genetic differences between Caucasic and Chinese CLL patients, our study was to validate the guiding function of IPI on Chinese CLL cases. Method: We performed a validation of the IPI proposed by the Cochrane Haematological Malignancies Group to stratify Chinese CLL patients prognostically in 225 CLL cases registered at our center. The five parameters (age, TP53 abnormalities, IGHV mutation status, b2-microglobulin and Binet stage) involved in the IPI were collected by clinical data, serum test, PCR and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Chi-square test, survival analysis, log-rank test and cox hazard regression analysis were utilized in the validation. Result: In the 225 Chinese CLL cases analysed in the validation, all five parameters involved in the IPI were associated with overall survival (OS) independently. The multivariate analysis demonstrated that age above 65 years old (HR 2.22; [1.15-4.30]; P=0.018), b2-microglobulin over 3.5 mg/L (HR 2.46; [1.22-4.94]; P=0.001), Binet staging B/C (HR 3.40; [1.02-11.33]; P=0.046), TP53 abnormalities (HR 2.72; [1.50-4.94]; P=0.012) and IGHV unmutation (HR 5.19; [2.51-10.77]; P<0.001) were OS related risk factors respectively. Then a total point score was calculated for each patient according to the grading system proposed by the Cochrane Haematological Malignancies Group investigators. There were 60 (26.7%) patients at low-risk (scoring 0-1), 57 (25.3%) patients at intermediate-risk (scoring 2-3), 65(28.9%) patients at high-risk (scoring 4-6) and 43 (19.1%) patients at very high-risk (scoring 7-10). The IPI allowed different prediction of time to treatment (TTT) in all groups (Fig. 1). The estimated median TTT were: 102 months for low-risk, 12 months for intermediate-risk and 1 month for high-risk group. However, the low-risk and intermediate-risk groups showed similar overall survival (P=0.424). Beyond that, significant difference was found between the intermediate, high and very high-risk groups. We combined the low-risk and the intermediate-risk groups into one to accommodate to the Chinese CLL cases. 117 (52%) patients were at low & intermediate-risk (scoring 0-3), thus leading to the significantly different prognostic value between groups (Fig. 1) . The estimated median survival times were: not reached for low&intermediate-risk, 63 months for high-risk and 128 months for very high-risk group. Conclusion: Our results basically validated the IPI proposed by the Cochrane Haematological Malignancies Group to prognostically stratify CLL patients in China, which confirmed the value of the novel prognostic index externally. However, a slight adaption was made to accommodate the Chinese cases better via the combination of the low-risk and intermediate-risk groups. We considered that a universally recognized prognostic model would be utilized to predict the disease progression and guide the treatment when initially diagnosed. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.



Author(s):  
Ramakrishna Narashima Mahabhashyam ◽  
Sunil Pal Singh ◽  
Archana Carolin ◽  
Maruti Sarma Mannava Varaprasada

Background: Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) has become the leading cause of death. Many tools for CVD risk assessment have been devised. While it is relatively easy to identify those who are obviously at high risk, the health expenditure can be predicted and necessary high risk based preventive care programmes can be introduced. The study has been taken up with an objective of assessing “10 years risk prediction of CAD, Among the Coal Mine Employees by applying “Framingham Risk Scores.”.Methods: Study population: coal mine employees (30-60 years of age). Study area: Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL), Telangana State, India. Study design: cross-sectional observational study. Sample size: 53367coal mine workers. Sampling methods: All coal mine employees (30-60 years) working atleast of 10 years duration and those who have given consent for the study have been included. Data collection: collected from the periodic medical examination records from 2008 to 2012. Analysis: By using Micro soft Excel 2007 and SPSS version 19.Results: Majority of the workers were in the age group of 51-60 years of age, followed by 41-50 years (31.5%). 11.9% has mild risk, 3.2% has moderate risk and 0.6% has severe risk of CAD. Mining Surface labourers has marginally higher risk of CAD than “Mining Supervisory and Managerial Staff’, Opencast mining staff were found to at higher risk of CAD.Conclusions: Mining Surface labourers and opencast mining staff were found to at higher risk of CAD. 



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