scholarly journals Methodological approaches to morbidity forecasting in military educational organizations

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 100-105
Author(s):  
A. E. Zobov ◽  
A. A. Kuzin ◽  
R. G. Makiev ◽  
A. A. Zobova

The article discusses aspects of the application of extrapolation and factor approaches to epidemiological forecasting, outlines the limitations and features of their application in relation to the prediction of morbidity.It is shown that when using an extrapolation approach, it becomes possible to predict the most likely numerical characteristics of morbidity in a certain time perspective. At the same time, the accuracy of the obtained forecast depends on the length of the time series and the type of long-term dynamics of morbidity. In turn, the trends formed by the results of forecasting artificially level the critical levels of morbidity that characterize individual periods of time and are fundamentally important for understanding the real picture.The factor approach is based on the prediction of morbidity levels using a certain set of factors. The difficulty of using the factor approach is noted due to the stochasticity of the epidemic process.Based on the results of a retrospective epidemiological analysis of the personalized morbidity of cadets of the Military Medical Academy, the heterogeneity of military contingents in susceptibility to acute respiratory infections of the upper respiratory tract is shown.From the standpoint of the academician V.D .Belyakov’s et al. theory of the parasitic systems self-regulation, the conclusion is made about the expediency of using a factor approach for epidemiological forecasting of morbidity in organized collectives. It is proposed to use the state of individual resistance as one of the main factors determining the epidemic well-being of organized collectives.The results of the development and testing of an electronic database that allows epidemiological surveillance of the morbidity of trainees and its linear prediction are presented.

Author(s):  
A. Panov ◽  
A. Zobov ◽  
A. Kuzin ◽  
A. Kucherov ◽  
S. Nikishov

Here we provide insights into conditions behind developing morbidity pattern in various categories of military personnel (a call-up for military service in military units and compounds, as well as cadets in military educational organizations of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation) with acute respiratory infections of the upper respiratory tract, having the greatest military-epidemiological importance for almost all military contingents.After investigating literary data, two groups of conditions for emerging disease patterns of acute respiratory infections of the upper respiratory tract have been identified: external (related to the impact of specific factors of military service on military personnel) and internal (related to the peculiarities of individual susceptibility to infections). Based on the results of the retrospective epidemiological analysis on incidence of acute respiratory infections of the upper respiratory tract, the peculiarities of the course of the epidemic process for infectious diseases among military personnel performing military service on conscription in military units and compounds, as well as in the Military Medical Academy named after S.M.Kirov for in the years 2011-2017 are shown. It is shown that the intra-annual dynamics of morbidity (according to the average monthly indicators) was uneven and formed two clearly shaped seasonal rises, significantly exceeding the upper limit of the year-round morbidity. At the same time, differences in the organization of educational and performance activities of different categories of military personnel have been identified, which have different effects on shaping morbidity. According to the 2011-2017 results of retrospective epidemiological analysis of personalized morbidity for cadets of the Military Medical Academy named after S.M.Kirov and comparative attendance analysis on revealed cases, the presence and relatively stable portion of military personnel who were more likely to have acute respiratory infections of the upper respiratory tract during entire 6-year training period is shown.Based on the results of the analysis of the calculated average annual incidence of diseases with acute respiratory infections of the upper respiratory tract, it was established that the distribution of cadets within the examined faculties of the S.M.Kirov Military Medical Academy was uneven in accordance with the four selected groups on the average annual disease incidence. There were highlighted cadets often sick and rarely acute respiratory infections of the upper respiratory tract. The results of the combined socio-psychological study in groups of frequent and rare sick cadets are presented, showing individual signs and behavioural features, according to which individual soldiers can be classified as contingents of increased susceptibility risk to acute respiratory infections of the upper respiratory tract for organizing personalized sanitary and anti-epidemic (preventive) measures.


Author(s):  
Olga Kuprieieva

The article presents the training program (for personality-oriented training) developing psychological qualities and personal resources of students’ self-realization in the integrated educational environment: psychological hardiness, value-semantic and motivational resources (meaningfulness of life, motives for self-development, values of self-realization, time perspective); resources of self-regulation (self-attitude, self-efficacy, autonomy); active coping strategies. The study purpose was to reveal the content of the training program promoting students’ self-realization in the integrated educational environment and the features of its implementation. The correlation analysis was used to identify links among the components of self-realization of students with disabilities and their personal characteristics – self-attitudes, life values and meanings, basic beliefs, psychological hardiness, time perspective, used coping strategies. The comprehensive empirical study involved 325 students with disabilities and 225 students without disabilities studying in integrated university groups (Kyiv). The targets for psychological influence and meaningful parts of the proposed training promoting self-realization were identified. The training program was a personality-oriented training and included a set of psychological techniques and methods promoting continuous personal growth, activating psychological mechanisms of self-development, self-improvement, self-activation and self-realization of potential capabilities. The training program was developed on the principles of humanistic and positive psychology; the proactive conceptual model of disability; the resource-oriented approach used in psychological counselling and psychotherapy; the concept of self-determined behaviour. The purpose of the proposed training program was to promote students’ self-realization via development of their psychological qualities and personal resources: psychological hardiness, value-semantic and motivational resources (meaningfulness of life, motives for self-development, values of self-realization, time perspective); resources of self-regulation (self-attitude, self-efficacy, autonomy); active coping strategies. The training program was based on self-realization components selected by us and consisted of three meaningfully related parts: «I and my inner world» (psychological resources of personal self-realization) including three modules; «I and the Other» (social resources of personal self-realization) with two modules; «I am in the World and Life» (instrumental resources maintaining life quality and psychological well-being) with two modules. Approbation of the program has showed its high efficiency. The analysed components of students’ self-realization – psychological hardiness, self-attitude, self-acceptance, meaningful life goals, active coping – showed their significant growth, and as a consequence, improved students’ psychological well-being.


2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. A. Kravchenko ◽  
T. A. Gavrilova ◽  
M. I. Khakimova ◽  
V. B. Kazanova ◽  
E. I. Vasilyeva ◽  
...  

 The system of epidemiological surveillance of community-acquired pneumonia (VP) in the Russian Federation (RF) has changed since 2011. As a result, additional opportunities have emerged for a comparative analysis of the incidence of EP and ARVI. The goal is to give a comparative description of the incidence of CAP and ARVI by age groups, territories and seasonality, taking into account the results of a selective laboratory examination of patients.Materials and methods.A retrospective descriptive epidemiological study on the results of epidemiological surveillance at the regional level (Irkutsk Region, 2012–2016) was conducted. For 2016, the dynamics of the patient’s number with influenza and acute respiratory viral infections (n = 706460) and VP (n = 15279) reported by weeks, as well as the results of selective PCR examination of 1788 patients for 13 viral and bacterial pathogens were analyzed.Results.Over 5 years, the incidence of the VP increased from 377.6 (370.0–385.2) per 100 thousand to 588.3 (578.7–597.9), the average annual growth rate was + 35.8%. At the same time, the incidence of ARVI decreased at an average annual rate of –2.9%. When comparing the incidence of CAP and ARVI in municipalities, it was found weakly correlation only (ρ = 0.172, p> 0.05). In contrast, in the analysis of seasonality, a direct strong correlation was found between SARS and EP by weeks of the year (ρ = 0.887, p <0.05). For an average of 5 years, there were 52 cases of ARVI per 1 case of EP. For children, there were no significant differences in this indicator by the seasons of the year, whereas in adults, EP were recorded relatively more often in summer and spring than in winter and autumn (p <0.05). Significant differences in the frequency of positive findings for the seasons of the year were found for pneumococcus, rhinoviruses, influenza A and RS viruses. The recorded incidence of CAP and ARVI was characterized by a weak correlation link by territory and a strong link by weeks.Conclusion.The introduction of the epidemiological monitoring system for pneumonia allowed to identify differences in the intra-annual dynamics of EF and ARVI among adults and children. This is the basis for correcting the tactics laboratory monitoring and prophylaxis of acute respiratory infections.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 87-92
Author(s):  
A. E. Zobov ◽  
A. A. Panov ◽  
A. A. Kuzin ◽  
A. A. Kucherov ◽  
S. N. Nikishov ◽  
...  

The article sets out the views on the causes of the incidence of various categories of military personnel with acute respiratory infections of the upper respiratory tract (hereinafter – ARI URT), as having the greatest military and epidemiological significance for almost all military contingents.According to the results of a study of literature data, two groups of reasons for the formation of the incidence of acute respiratory infections of the airborne diseases are identified: external (associated with the exposure of military personnel to specific factors of military service) and internal (associated with the characteristics of individual susceptibility to this group of infections).Based on the results of a retrospective epidemiological analysis of the incidence of military servicemen on conscription, the development features of the epidemic process of ARI URT in military units and compounds are shown.According to the results of a retrospective epidemiological analysis of the incidence rate of cadets at the S.M. Kirov Military Medical Academy for 2011-2017 and a comparative analysis of the reversal rate for completed cases, the presence and relatively stable proportion of military personnel exposed to frequent ARI diseases of the airborne diseases throughout the entire 6-year period has been shown period of study.The results of a combined socio-psychological study in groups of often and rarely ill cadets are shown, showing individual signs and psychological characteristics, according to which individual military personnel can be assigned to the risk contingents of increased susceptibility to ARI URT for the purpose of organizing personalized sanitary-antipyretic (preventive) measures.


Author(s):  
Larisa P. Kazakova ◽  
Denis I. Radke

The article contains the results of an empirical study of the features of life meaning orientations, time perspective, and ideological identity of first- and fifth-year military university cadets studying “Psychology of service activity” with different types of motivation for choosing military service. Significant difference in the personal characteristics of cadets with the “internal” and “external” type of motivation for choosing military service is revealed. First-year cadets’ “internal” motivation is associated with higher levels of meaningfulness result of life and locus of control of ‘self’. Fifth-year cadets with “internal” motivation have higher indications of conciseness of the future and a positive attitude to the past. It is concluded that the motivation for entering military service is more significant for the indicators of psychological well-being of cadets than the experience of service or training in the cadet corps before entering a military university.


GeroPsych ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 103-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minjie Lu ◽  
Angel Y. Li ◽  
Helene H. Fung ◽  
Klaus Rothermund ◽  
Frieder R. Lang

Abstract. This study addresses prior mixed findings on the relationship between future time perspective (FTP) and well-being as well as examines the associations between three aspects of FTP and life satisfaction in the health and friendship domains. 159 Germans, 97 US Americans, and 240 Hong Kong Chinese, aged 19–86 years, completed a survey on future self-views (valence) and life satisfaction. They also reported the extent to which they perceived future time as expanded vs. limited (time extension) and meaningful (openness). Findings revealed that individuals with more positive future self-views had higher satisfaction. However, those who perceived their future as more meaningful or perceived more time in their future reported higher satisfaction even when future self-views were less positive.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Nolen Fortuin

With the institution of compulsory military service in South Africa in 1948 the National Party government effected a tool well shaped for the construction of hegemonic masculinities. Through this, and other structures like schools and families, white children were shaped into submissive abiding citizens. Due to the brutal nature of a militarised society, gender roles become strictly defined and perpetuated. As such, white men’s time served on the border also “toughened” them up and shaped them into hegemonic copies of each other, ready to enforce patriarchal and racist ideologies. In this article, I look at how the novel Moffie by André Carl van der Merwe (2006) illustrates hegemonic white masculinity in South Africa and how it has long been strictly regulated to perpetuate the well-being of the white family as representative of the capitalist state. I discuss the novel by looking at the ways in which the narrator is marked by service in the military, which functions as a socialising agent, but as importantly by the looming threat of the application of the term “moffie” to himself, by self or others.  


Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saima Habeeb ◽  
Manju Chugani

: The novel coronavirus infection (COVID‐19) is a global public health emergency.Since its outbreak in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the infection has spread at an alarming rate across the globe and humans have been locked down to their countries, cities and homes. As of now, the virus has affected over 20million people globally and has inflicted over 7 lac deaths. Nevertheless, the recovery rate is improving with each passing day and over 14 million people have recuperated so far. The statistics indicate that nobody is immune to the disease as the virus continues to spread among all age groups; newborns to the elders, and all compartmentsincluding pregnant women. However, pregnant women may be more susceptible to this infection as they are, in general, highly vulnerable to respiratory infections. There is no evidence for vertical transmission of the COVID-19 virus among pregnant women, but an increased prevalence of preterm deliveries. Besides this, the COVID-19 may alter immune response at the maternal-fetal interface and affect the well-being of mothers as well as infants. Unfortunately, there is limited evidence available in the open literature regarding coronavirus infection during pregnancy and it now appears that certain pregnant women have infected during the present 2019-nCoV pandemic. In this short communication, we study the impact of the COVID-19 infection on vertical transmission and fetal outcome among pregnant women.


2021 ◽  
pp. bmjmilitary-2020-001740
Author(s):  
Erin G Lawrence ◽  
N Jones ◽  
N Greenberg ◽  
N T Fear ◽  
S Wessely ◽  
...  

Organisations including the United Kingdom Armed Forces should seek to implement mental health interventions to increase the psychological well-being of their workforce. This editorial briefly presents ten key principles that military forces should consider before implementing such interventions. These include job-focused training; evaluating interventions; the use of internal versus external training providers; the role of leaders; unit cohesion, single versus multiple session psychological interventions; not overgeneralising the applicability of interventions; the need for repeated skills practice; raising awareness and the fallibility of screening.


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