Predicting Turning Points and Recessions

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don Harding ◽  
Adrian Pagan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Definition Of

This chapter argues that the problems in predicting recessions stem from the nature of the definition of a recession. Much of the literature that claims success does not predict recessions as such. Rather it focuses on either whether one can predict growth in economic activity or whether one can identify the current status of the economy—what is often referred to as “nowcasting” rather than forecasting. The chapter reviews the literature on predicting recessions. The review leads to the conclusion that there are good reasons it is extremely difficult to predict recessions. Understanding these leads to an appreciation of the barriers to be faced in the task, and also suggests that many of the claims made about how the forecasting record can be improved should be treated with skepticism.

Determining the discount rate when evaluating trade organizations: Some features

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-84
Author(s):  
E.A. Grigor'eva ◽  
A.S. Buzhikeeva
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Additional Risk ◽  
Evaluation Procedures ◽  
Analytical Research ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Traditional Approaches

Subject. This article deals with the issues of determining the market value of the trading business, taking into account a number of characteristics. Objectives. The article aims to develop certain provisions of the methodology and practice of evaluating the business of trading organizations, namely, taking into account the additional risk of inventory feasibility when calculating the discount rate. Methods. For the study, we used a systems approach, and the cognition, and economic and analytical research methods. Results. The article presents a three-tiered classification of stocks and a definition of risk based on the criteria for dividing stocks by purpose, degree of implementation, and shelf life in accordance with the scale. Based on the classification, the article offers certain recommendations for determining the discount rate when evaluating trading organizations, aimed at taking into account additional risk. Conclusions. Various evaluation procedures within the framework of traditional approaches and methods in relation to trading organizations do not take into account risk specific to this type of economic activity. The proposed methodology for calculating the discount rate for trade organizations takes into account the features of their functioning.

CONSUMER CREDIT: THEORY AND PRACTICE

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 32-37
Author(s):  
Shavkat Abdullayev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Credit ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Consumer Lending ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

The article discusses the theoretical foundations, current status and ways of improving consumer lending in Uzbekistan. It were studied the views of foreign and domestic scientists on the definition of consumer credit. There are analyzed the disadvantages of consumer credits and are proposed ways to improve them

scholarly journals REVIEW OF DESIGN HEURISTICS AND DESIGN PRINCIPLES IN DESIGN FOR ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 2571-2580
Author(s):  
Filip Valjak ◽  
Angelica Lindwall
Keyword(s):  
Additive Manufacturing ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Design Principles ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Design For Additive Manufacturing ◽  
Design Heuristics ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Support Methods

AbstractThe advent of additive manufacturing (AM) in recent years have had a significant impact on the design process. Because of new manufacturing technology, a new area of research emerged – Design for Additive Manufacturing (DfAM) with newly developed design support methods and tools. This paper looks into the current status of the field regarding the conceptual design of AM products, with the focus on how literature sources treat design heuristics and design principles in the context of DfAM. To answer the research question, a systematic literature review was conducted. The results are analysed, compared and discussed on three main points: the definition of the design heuristics and the design principles, level of support they provide, as well as where and how they are used inside the design process. The paper highlights the similarities and differences between design heuristics and design principles in the context of DfAM.

Moral economy: What’s in a name

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
James G Carrier
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Moral Economy ◽  
Moral Value ◽  
The Past ◽  
Empty Symbol ◽  
The Social ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Moral Economic

The idea of moral economy has been increasingly popular in the social sciences over the past decade, given a confusing variety of meanings and sometimes invoked as an empty symbol. This paper begins by describing this state of affairs and some of its undesirable corollaries, which include unthinking invocations of the moral and simplistic views of some sorts of economic activity. Then, referring especially to the work of EP Thompson and James C Scott, this paper proposes a more precise definition of moral economy that roots moral economic activity in the mutual obligations that arise when people transact with each other over the course of time. It thus distinguishes between the moral values that are the context of economic activity and those that arise from the activity itself. The solution that the paper proposes to the confused state of ‘moral economy’ can, therefore, be seen as terminological, as the sub-title suggests, but it is intended to have the substantive benefits of a better approach to economic activity and circulation and a more explicit and thoughtful attention to moral value.

ECONOMIC AND LEGAL STATUS OF THE CONSULTING ENGINEER IN UKRAINE: REGULATORY PROBLEMS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alla Brovdii ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Legal Status ◽  
Road Construction ◽  
Legal Aspects ◽  
Legal Form ◽  
Employment Contracts ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Right

Some aspects of the economic and legal status of a consulting engineer are analyzed, taking into account the specifics of national legislation. Some problems of the legal status of the consulting engineer and the forms of his economic activity are revealed. The introduction of such an entity as a consulting engineer in the modern conditions of construction development is of particular importance due to the need to improve the quality of construction work, the development of competition in this area and the need to change approaches to economic activity in this area. It is established that the concept of consulting engineer is defined in some special regulations, in particular, regulating activities in the field of road construction, but the economic and legal aspects of his business remain unresolved. This significantly affects the effectiveness of the introduction of the institute of consulting engineers in the field of management. The problem of lack of clear definition of the form of conducting economic activity by the specified participant of economic relations is revealed. The necessity of adopting a special normative legal act, namely the Law of Ukraine "On the activities of consulting engineers", in which to regulate general issues of their legal status, features of the organization of its activities, responsibilities, etc is proved. The author's definition of the concept of consulting engineer is proposed, taking into account the need to establish the organizational and legal form of his business, which will ensure proper regulation of relations between him and other participants in construction relations, including contractors and customers. The solution of some problems of the economic and legal status of the consulting engineer under the legislation of Ukraine is offered. The expediency of conducting the activity of a consulting engineer as a self-employed person, or carrying out its activity by creating a legal entity (association of consulting engineers) is substantiated. In addition, in our opinion, an entity that carries out engineering activities and has concluded employment contracts with duly accredited consulting engineers has the right to provide the services of a consulting engineer.

scholarly journals A Contribution to the Chronology of Turning Points in Global Economic Activity (1980-2012)

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (169) ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerie Grossman ◽  
◽  
Adrienne Mack ◽  
Enrique Martínez-García ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Turning Points

scholarly journals Risk management system in the enterprises of agrarian sphere

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
V. G. Zakrzewski ◽  
O. G. Charykova ◽  
Yu. Yu. Golubyatnikova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Management System ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Assessment Development ◽  
Agrarian Sector ◽  
Risk Management System ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Definition Of

The article deals with risk management systems at enterprises of the agrarian sector, which represents an organization of economic activity, the purpose of which is to minimize losses and find sources of income. The research organization of the risk management system in the enterprises of agrarian sphere great attention should be paid to the integration of their specific activities. The process of risk management in enterprises consists of the following phases: definition of objectives and parameters for solving the problem of risk; identification of external and internal risk factors; identification of risk factors, risk identification; risk analysis; risk assessment; development and implementation of risk management measures; synthesis of the results of measures taken and preparing proposals. In addition, the risk management system is submitted to us through the introduction of a passport of risk, to enable the formulation and adjustment of economic activity at any stage of its implementation. Under the risk passport of the economic risk refers to a collection of information about risk, risk criteria, as well as guidance on the application of the necessary methods to manage or mitigate the risks. As well as the information in the article was considered in the context of a risk management system. 

scholarly journals Molecular Targets for Gastric Cancer Treatment and Future Perspectives from a Clinical and Translational Point of View

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 5216
Author(s):  
Justus Körfer ◽  
Florian Lordick ◽  
Ulrich T. Hacker
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Targeted Therapy ◽  
Molecular Characterization ◽  
Gastroesophageal Junction ◽  
Standard Of Care ◽  
Metastatic Gastric Cancer ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Molecular Alterations ◽  
Definition Of

Gastric cancer is a leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Systemic treatment comprising chemotherapy and targeted therapy is the standard of care in advanced/metastatic gastric cancer. Comprehensive molecular characterization of gastric adenocarcinomas by the TCGA Consortium and ACRG has resulted in the definition of distinct molecular subtypes. These efforts have in parallel built a basis for the development of novel molecularly stratified treatment approaches. Based on this molecular characterization, an increasing number of specific genomic alterations can potentially serve as treatment targets. Consequently, the development of promising compounds is ongoing. In this review, key molecular alterations in gastric and gastroesophageal junction cancers will be addressed. Finally, the current status of the translation of targeted therapy towards clinical applications will be reviewed.

scholarly journals SPATIAL CONCEPT OF RATIONALE BEHIND ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 136-147
Author(s):  
Ihor BYSTRIAKOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Natural Ecosystem ◽  
Spatial Concept ◽  
Economic Concept ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Post Industrial ◽  
Platform Economy

For Ukraine’s conditions, it is important to find new forms of organization of economic activity, which will ensure the overcoming of “catching-up” of the world economy. It is advisable to solve the problem in terms of determining the features of the national space for sustainable development. At the same time, objectively, there is a need to adapt the definition of “space” as such to the practice of environmental and economic development management. From a methodological standpoint, the issue is to use the post-industrial approaches to define economic processes with a focus on the category of “interest”. Since economic space of the post-industrial type is formed by the flows of “interests” of business entities, which circulate and determine its structure, attention is focused on domination of energy and information in communicative processes. From the standpoint of the functioning of a proper communicative field, the effect of economic activity is provided by reducing the parameters of transaction duration and then reducing the costs to a corresponding acceptable level. Evolution of the communication system indicates a change in the nature of interaction of business entities with environment. The main issues are the ecological and economic encodings of the life space, which gradually transform into everyday reality and form the corresponding cognitive frames. Therefore, an important point is the search for modern forms of economic self-sufficiency of functioning of ecological systems at the level of requirements for their safe existence at the expense of rational use of natural resources assets. The author emphasizes the expediency of focusing on decentralized forms of managing the process of ensuring the ecological and economic development of territories, taking into account the relevant competences of local economic systems within the definition of their communication fields. Aforementioned approach can be fully solved in the framework of the so-called platform economy. As a phenomenon of macroeconomic level, the platform economy provides guidance on changing the mechanism of cost formation at the grassroots level. The ecological and economic concept of sustainable development fits into general trends associated with transformation of the markets towards expansion of network interactions, since business as well starts to develop according to the similar to natural ecosystem laws.

scholarly journals PROPERTY IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: CERTAIN PROBLEMS OF DEFINITION AND CLASSIFICATION IN UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
Oleksandra Rozhenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Legal Regulation ◽  
Process Approach ◽  
Property Relations ◽  
Economic Entity ◽  
Specific Category ◽  
Category Property ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Management Functions

The article examines the definition of the term «property» in management sphere, analyses the existing definitions of the term «property» in management sphere. On this basis, the different approaches are identified and a process approach to the interpretation of a specific category is proposed. Regarding the classification of the types of property and sources of its formation, the use of terms and concepts that have expired in the legislation has been established. It is proposed to eliminate the identified differences and contradictions in the interpretation of the terms of legal regulation of property relations in management sphere in Ukraine in view of the types of property and sources of its formation. The definition of the category «property» in management sphere, which is available in current legislation and modern scientific sources, is considered. The approaches to the definition of the term «property» in management sphere are singled out, namely: property is things, assets, property of a certain type, classification-based approach and combined approach. The definition of the essence of the term «property» in management sphere is proposed to be considered according to the process approach, which is initially considered resources, which later acquire the characteristics of assets and further property. The differences and ramifications in the classification types of property under the current legislation are analysed, the ways of their elimination are offered, which will lead to the increase of efficiency of the use of the created property of the economic entity. According to the process approach, which assumes that a certain set of resources acquires the characteristics of assets, which, in turn, are part of the property of a particular entity. A distinctive feature of the proposed approach is that the property in management sphere is defined as a set of assets that are formed through a number of resources. The use of the provided proposals and elimination of identified contradictions in the classification of property types and sources of its formation will promote the intensification of various management functions of economic activity in the part of implementing economic mechanisms and regulators to optimize property formation and increase of its efficiency.

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