scholarly journals SARIMA Model for Forecasting Price Indices Fluctuations

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
N. Sonai Muthu ◽  
K. Senthamarai Kannan ◽  
V. Deneshkumar ◽  
P. Thangasamy
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Sarima Model ◽  
Food And Beverages ◽  
Urban And Rural Areas

In day-to-day life, the price level fluctuations in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) goods and service. So, the retail consumers are affecting by that price level changes, who are on the demand side of the economy. The main objective of this work is to forecast such selected factors of CPI in urban and rural areas of India, like: Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants, Fuel and Light and Education and also compute the inflation rate for those four main variables in all India.

scholarly journals Statistical Capacity Building of Official Statisticians in Practice: Case of the Consumer Price Index

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 827-848
Author(s):  
Tomi Deutsch
Keyword(s):  
Capacity Building ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Professional Community ◽  
Index Formula ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Welfare Benefits ◽  
Research Findings

Abstract This article focuses on the issue of statistical capacity building of official statisticians using the case of the consumer price index (CPI) as an illustrative example. Although used for indexation of salaries, pensions, and social welfare benefits, but also as an approximation of the general inflation rate, there are several unresolved methodological issues associated with CPI’s calculation. Apart from the choice among two alternative concepts, the challenge of how to include owner-occupied housing (OOH) in CPI has also not been adequately resolved yet. Analysis in the article is based on Slovenian data. The results show that accuracy of the CPI significantly improves if it is calculated using one of the superlative and symmetric formulas, and that it makes sense to include OOH in CPI using the total acquisitions approach. The analysis further indicates that the choice of the index formula for calculating CPI has a much greater impact on the CPI value than inclusion of OOH. Academic research findings such as these should not remain unknown to the wide professional community of official statisticians. Formal channels for knowledge transfer from academia to official statistics providers should be established to facilitate continuous statistical capacity building of official statisticians.

scholarly journals Index Number Issues in the Consumer Price Index

1998 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Erwin Diewert
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Index Number ◽  
Cost Of Living ◽  
Fixed Base ◽  
Statistical Agencies ◽  
Cost Of Living Index ◽  
Theoretical Cost

This paper addresses the following issues: what is an appropriate theoretical consumer price index that statistical agencies should attempt to measure; what are some of the possible sources of biases between the fixed base Laspeyres price index that statistical agencies produce and the theoretical cost-of-living index; and what factors will make the biases larger or smaller and how will the biases change as the general inflation rate changes? This paper addresses all of the issues mentioned above and discusses what statistical agencies can do to reduce the biases.

scholarly journals Analisis Perkembangan Indeks Harga Konsumen di Kota Medan

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 412-418
Author(s):  
Sari Wulandari ◽  
Muhammad Dani Habra
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Household Expenditure ◽  
The Public ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
City Community ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The City

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the important economic indicators that can provide information about the development of prices of goods and services (commodities) paid by consumers or the public especially the city community. This study aims to analyze the Development of the Consumer Price Index in Medan City. The benefits of this research are a description of the fluctuations in commodity prices for basic needs of the community at the level of consumers or retail traders. This type of research is descriptive qualitative. The subject in this study is the Central Statistics Agency and the object in this study is the Consumer Price Index through seven groups of household expenditure in 2018-2019. The results showed that the development of price indices in Medan City tends to fluctuate from seven types of household expenditure groups. During the January-December 2019 period the highest inflation of the seven types of expenditure was foodstuffs. Keywords: Consumer Price Index, Inflation Rate

scholarly journals PERAMALAN LAJU INFLASI DENGAN METODE AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA)

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Djawoto Djawoto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Stationary Time ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Auto Regression

Auto Regression Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) or the combination model of Auto Regression with moving average, is a linier model which is able to represent the stationary time series or non stationary time series. The purpose of this research is to forecast the inflation rate in November 2010 with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by using ARIMA. The inflation indicator is very important to anticipate in making the Government’s policy and decision as well as for the citizen is for the information to determine what to do in related with savings and investment. By looking at the existing criteria, it is determined that the best model is ARIMA (1,1,0) or AR (1). Model ARIMA (1,1,0), the coefficient value AR (1) is significant,which has the most minimum value of Akaike Info Criterion (AIC) and Schwars Criterion (SC) compare toARIMA (0,1,1) or MA (1) and ARIMA (1,1,1) or AR (1) MA (1). In summarize, the ARIMA model used to forecast the valueof IHK is ARIMA (1,1,0).

scholarly journals APPLICATION OF THE MAIN COMPONENTS METHOD FOR DETERMINATION OF FACTORS OF LOGISTICS SERVICES MARKET DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (160) ◽  
pp. 40-47
Author(s):  
N. Hrynchak
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Hidden Variables ◽  
Retail Trade ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Statistical Correlations ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Logistics Services ◽  
Main Components

The study identifies and substantiates the main factors influencing the development of the market of logistics services in Ukraine through factor analysis by the method of main components. The application of the method of factor analysis to assess the development of the market of logistics services is based on the assumption that the indicators of different blocks are only indicators of certain existing market characteristics that are not directly measured. 9 indicators were selected for the study: wholesale turnover of enterprises, retail trade turnover, volume of exports of goods, volume of imports of goods, hryvnia devaluation index against the US dollar, rail freight index, consumer price index for transport, consumer price index for fuel and lubricants, consumer price index for transport services. Bartlett’s sphericity criterion and the calculation of the adequacy of the Kaiser-Mayer-Olkin sample were used for the study. It was found that the largest variance has such components as price indices for transport, fuels and lubricants, the volume of foreign and domestic (wholesale and retail) trade, which total 83.1%. The analysis of factors according to the received calculations is made.A study of factor analysis of the development of the market of logistics services showed that the segment of freight and warehousing logistics is not significantly affected by indicators combined in the component that characterized the price indices for transport, transport services, etc., is changes in domestic and foreign trade are greater impact on changes in the volume of these segments, regardless of changes in prices for services and related goods in the market of logistics services. The selection of factors according to the proposed method allows to determine their influence, but does not fully clarify the mechanism of influence, so the direction of further research should be to identify hidden variables that determine the presence of statistical correlations.

scholarly journals Tests for Price Indices in a Dynamic Item Universe

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 683-697
Author(s):  
Li-Chun Zhang ◽  
Ingvild Johansen ◽  
Ragnhild Nygaard
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Scanner Data ◽  
Price Indices ◽  
Cost Of Living ◽  
Quality Change ◽  
Large Index ◽  
New Goods ◽  
Cost Of Living Index ◽  
Index Family

Abstract There is generally a need to deal with quality change and new goods in the consumer price index due to the underlying dynamic item universe. Traditionally axiomatic tests are defined for a fixed universe. We propose five tests explicitly formulated for a dynamic item universe, and motivate them both from the perspectives of a cost-of-goods index and a cost-of-living index. None of the indices that are currently available for making use of scanner data satisfies all the tests at the same time. The set of tests provides a rigorous diagnostic for whether an index is completely appropriate in a dynamic item universe, as well as pointing towards the directions of possible remedies. We thus outline a large index family that potentially can satisfy all the tests.

scholarly journals Research on the Impact of Reducing Industrial and Commercial Electricity Price on Henan's Overall Price Level——Based on Social Accounting Matrix

2019 ◽  
Vol 136 ◽  
pp. 01017
Author(s):  
Yanming Jin ◽  
Zhuonan Li ◽  
Mingyang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Henan Province ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Social Accounting Matrix ◽  
Social Accounting ◽  
Economic Price ◽  
The Impact

In order to reduce the operating costs of enterprises and optimize the business environment, China implemented the policy of reducing the general industrial and commercial electricity price by 10% in 2018 and 2019. This study uses the social accounting matrix to evaluate the effect of policy implementation on the price level of Henan Province. Through price transmission, we analyze the impact of industrial and commercial electricity price changes on production price and consumer price fluctuation of other sectors. The results show that the adjustment of general industrial and commercial electricity price has limited effect on the overall economic price level of Henan Province. The impact of electricity price adjustment on urban consumer price index is higher than that of rural consumer price index.

scholarly journals Consumer Attitudes About No Repricing in Supermarkets

1977 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-106
Author(s):  
Farrell E. Jensen ◽  
Frederick A. Perkins
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Consumer Attitudes ◽  
Traditional Practices ◽  
Price Increases

In 1974 the price level for food as measured by the Consumer Price Index increased by 14.4 percent. During this period supermarkets received wholesale price increases on up to 800 individual lines of merchandise per week. In keeping with traditional practices the industry would pass the wholesale price increases to the consumer by pricing the new merchandise and existing shelf inventory to reflect higher wholesale costs. It was not uncommon during this period for consumers to find two, three, or more old price markings on an item replaced by a higher price.

scholarly journals Temporary Price Changes, Inflation Regimes, and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-152
Author(s):  
Fernando Alvarez ◽  
Francesco Lippi
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Scanner Data ◽  
Optimal Plan ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Menu Cost

We present a sticky price model that features the coexistence of many price changes, most of which are temporary, with a modest flexibility of the aggregate price level. Stickiness is introduced in the form of a price plan, namely a set of two prices: either price can be charged at any moment but changing the plan entails a menu cost. We analytically solve for the optimal plan and for the aggregate output response to a monetary shock. We present evidence consistent with the model implications using scanner data, as well as Consumer Price Index data across a wide range of inflation rates. (JEL D22, E31, E52, L11, O11, O23)

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