Should Russian Military Leaders Opt for Tactical Escalation in the Baltic States and Kaliningrad?1

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Col. Kaspars Pudāns
Keyword(s):  
Modern Time ◽  
Direct Control ◽  
Major Power ◽  
The West ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Military Commanders ◽  
Strategic Leaders ◽  
Time Of Troubles ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract Russia once again pushes its way to emerge as a major power in the international order after losing this status in the modern ‘time of troubles’ in the 1990s. Its political and military strategic leaders demonstrated willingness to employ all instruments of power as means of escalation to achieve this goal. Meanwhile, tactical military commanders are the ones in direct control of military escalation means and therefore their motivations, agility and rationality are also important factor in the Russian escalation processes towards the West. This research will look at these processes through lenses of game and decision-making theories.

scholarly journals "The Tartar raid in great multitude was committed": Khan Qirim Girai's incursion into the Russian Empire province of Yelisavetgrad in the winter of 1769

2019 ◽  
pp. 8-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasily Kashirin
Keyword(s):  
Russian Empire ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
250Th Anniversary ◽  
Historical Archive ◽  
Russian State ◽  
Military Commanders ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Russian Empire ◽  
State Library ◽  
Geographical Scope

The article is devoted to the depredatory and massive incursion of the Crimean Khanate forces commanded by Khan Qirim Girai into Yelisavetgrad province of the Russian Empire (former Novoserbia) in January 1769, at the very beginning of the Russo-Turkish war of 1768-1774. 2019 was marked by the 250th anniversary of this milestone event that became the last full-scale Tatar raid into Russian lands. There has been no special research devoted to this topic so far while in the existing historical works the assessments of the consequences of the Khan Qirim Girai's incursion and the actions of Russian military commanders, general en chef Pyotr Rumyantsev in particular, seem one-sided and biased. The article covers the prerequisites and preparations for the incursion, Russian military commanders' intelligence data, parties' plans and forces, their actions as well as recreation of detailed timeline and geographical scope; disputes among Russian military leaders and the reasons for their misfortunes are also analysed; records of losses and material damage are presented in this paper. Along with the well-known sources the author uses the documents from the Russian State Military Historical Archive and the Manuscripts Department of the Russian State Library that have not been introduced into scientifi c discourse.

The Sino–Russian Strategic Partnership

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J. Bolt ◽  
Sharyl N. Cross
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Relative Power ◽  
Mutual Respect ◽  
Major Power ◽  
The West ◽  
The World ◽  
Key Players ◽  
Common Interests ◽  
The Relationship

The Conclusion reviews the volume’s major themes. Russia and China have common interests that cement their partnership, and are key players in shaping the international order. Both seek better relations with the West, but on the basis of “mutual respect” and “equality.” While the relationship has grown deeper, particularly since 2014, China and Russia are partners but not allies. Thus, their relationship is marked by burgeoning cooperation, but still areas of potential competition and friction. Russia in particular must deal with China’s growing relative power at the same time that it is isolated from the West. While the Russian–Chinese relationship creates challenges for the United States and Europe and a return of major power rivalry, there is also room for cooperation in the strategic triangle comprising China, Russia, and the West. Looking ahead, the world is in a period of dramatic transition.

THE "HYBRID WAR" CONSTRUCTING IN WESTERN MEDIA SPACE. MAIN STAGES AND ACTORS

2020 ◽  
pp. 20-34
Author(s):  
Vladimir S. Tsarik ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Soft Power ◽  
Information Warfare ◽  
The West ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
Media Space ◽  
Hybrid War ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
War Discourse ◽  
Western Media

The article analyzes a process of the ‘hybrid war’ constructing as a political discourse in Western media space at the initial stages of its formation and promotion in 2014. Using the discourse analysis and process-tracing methods, the author detects principal actors involved in the process, reconstructs the sequence of events in the course of establishing and elaborating the ‘hybrid war’ discourse and analyzes transformation of meanings of that discourse proceeding from interests of actors involved into its elaboration. The analysis presented in the article led to the following conclusions: 1) discourse about Russia’s ‘hybrid war’ against the West was formulated in the spring of 2014 for substantiation of Ukrainian narrative on ‘Russian aggression in Ukraine’ and consolidation of the confrontational nature of relations between the West and Russia; 2) at the initial stage of discourse elaboration and dissemination the key role in this process was performed by representatives of non-governmental analytical institutions of the Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine and Great Britain, and in its formalization at the international level – the NATO official representatives and institutions; 3) in conceptual respect the ‘hybrid war’ discourse, combining into a single whole the conventional, irregular and information warfare, facilitated ‘étatisation’ of non-traditional security threats, “militarizing” the “soft power” and criminalizing the conventional ways of inter-state competition.

St Bernard of Clairvaux, The Low Countries and the Lisbon Letter of the Second Crusade

1997 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 485-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Eleventh Century ◽  
Holy Land ◽  
Low Countries ◽  
The West ◽  
Latin East ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The City

On 24 December 1144 'Imad ad-Din Zengi, the Muslim ruler of Aleppo and Mosul, captured the Christian city of Edessa. This was the most serious setback suffered by the Frankish settlers in the Levant since their arrival in the region at the end of the eleventh century. In reaction the rulers of Antioch and Jerusalem dispatched envoys to the west appealing for help. The initial efforts of Pope Eugenius in and King Louis VII of France met with little response, but at Easter 1146, at Vézelay, Bernard of Clairvaux led a renewed call to save the Holy Land and the Second Crusade began to gather momentum. As the crusade developed, its aims grew beyond an expedition to the Latin East and it evolved into a wider movement of Christian expansion encom-passing further campaigns against the pagan Wends in the Baltic and the Muslims of the Iberian peninsula. One particular group of men participated in two elements of the crusade; namely, the northern Europeans who sailed via the Iberian peninsula to the Holy Land. In thecourse of this journey they achieved the major success of the Second Crusade when they captured the city of Lisbon in October 1147. This article will consider how this aspect of the expedition fitted into the conception of the crusade as a whole and will try to establish when Lisbon became the principal target for the crusaders. St Bernard's preaching tour of the Low Countries emerges as an important, yet hitherto neglected, event.

The Role of Deterrence in a new European strategic environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Rob de Wijk
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Theoretical Foundation ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
The Crimea ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
Complete Overhaul ◽  
Crimea Peninsula

Abstract: The new Russian military doctrine from 2010, the growing international assertiveness of Russia, and eventually the annexation of the Crimea Peninsula in 2014 have forced the West to rethink deterrence strategies vis a vis Russia. Consequently, the old Cold War concept of deterrence was dusted off and the debate picked up from where it had ended in 1990. This article summarizes the end of the Cold War thinking on deterring aggression against NATO-Europe. It explains why the present Western theoretical foundation of deterrence, which still focuses on strong conventional forces backed up by nuclear weapons, no longer suffices, and argues that the new Russian concept of strategic deterrence requires a complete overhaul of the Western approach. It is not only the security of the Baltic member states of NATO or of transatlantic cables that matter, Europe has to cope with desinformation and destabilization campaigns and has to rethink its energy security strategy. Only together can NATO and EU master these challenges.

scholarly journals UKRAINE BETWEEN PEACE AND WAR WITH RUSSIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-106
Author(s):  
Ilie Răsvan DUMITRU
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Soviet Bloc ◽  
The West ◽  
Crimean Peninsula ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
Limited Warfare ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Peace And War

  After the Crimean Peninsula was invaded and the amplification of conflicts in South-Eastern Ukraine, it has become obvious that Russia's policy is concentrated on preserving its influence and strategic control over the decisions and political directions taken by the States from the former Soviet bloc. To understand the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the West, as well as to anticipate and counteract a possible future evolution of similar events not only in geopolitical risk states such as Moldavia, but also even in NATO members such as the Baltic countries, Romania or Bulgaria, it is worth paying attention to the geopolitical consequences of the loss of Crimea and the South-Eastern provinces by Ukraine. The article analyses the reason, mechanisms and stakes behind the Russian-Ukrainian war, from both a geopolitical and historical perspective. To understand the way in which different hybrid instruments can be used by the Russian Federation to influence the States in its proximity and, in particular, how their combination leads to effective satisfaction of the aims, it is useful to assess and address the systemic risks and vulnerabilities of States in the concerned areas of Russia and the West in recent years.   Keywords: Ukraine; Russian Federation; Crimea; Russian-Ukrainian war; hybrid warfare; limited warfare; maskirovka.

Risk Assessment: Prospect Theory and Civil–Military Affairs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory Winger
Keyword(s):  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Frames Of Reference ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Military Conflict ◽  
Potential Gain ◽  
Military Commanders ◽  
Political Decision Making

Prospect theory is a behavioral theory that holds that human attitudes toward risk are not fixed but can shift dramatically based on how a decision is framed. Instead of assessing different options in the abstract, individuals form a point of reference and weigh decisions based on how the outcomes may impact that point. When a proposition is framed as a potential gain, individuals exhibit risk-averse behavior and prefer certain gains over potentially more lucrative gambles. Conversely, when an identical question is posited as a loss, people become risk acceptant and are willing to gamble on potentially significant losses rather than accept even modest setbacks. Since first gaining prominence through the works of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, prospect theory has provided a valuable analytical tool for analyzing political decision making. Within international relations, the theory has been leveraged to gauge individual leaders’ attitudes toward risk when making decisions under uncertain conditions. This approach has yielded keen insights into a diverse range of episodes and issues including economic reforms, crisis management, and casualty sensitivity. Prospect theory also holds significant potential within the field of civil-military affairs. Although political leaders and military commanders ostensibly serve national interests, each possesses distinct interests and responsibilities. This means that even when facing a similar situation, civilian and military leaders may assess the situation from contrasting frames of reference and consequently possess conflicting attitudes toward risk. Such situations will lead to competing policy prescriptions and engender civil-military conflict. Incorporating prospect theory into our analysis of civil-military affairs provides a valuable tool for identifying policy preferences within individual actors and explaining how different frames of reference and risk propensities can shape civil-military disputes.

The Great War

2000 ◽  
pp. 151-172
Author(s):  
Peter N. Davies
Keyword(s):  
West African ◽  
Great War ◽  
The West ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Great War ◽  
First World

This chapter describes the First World War’s effect on British shipping and West African trade. It discusses shipping losses and incidents, and describes the consequences of the end of trade with Germany and Austria; the closure of the Baltic and Black seas; congestion at ports; and the strain and depletion of ships. The chapter also reports the collapse of the West African Shipping Conference at the beginning of the war and describes the ways in this affected Elder Dempster and the Lever Brothers.

scholarly journals How to boost the Western response to Russian hostile influence operations

European View ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-188
Author(s):  
Jakub Janda
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
The Political ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
The West ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Uk

The Russian Federation has become a rogue state in international relations, invading and occupying the territories of three European countries (Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine), waging war in the Ukrainian territory, producing massive disinformation campaigns against the West, threatening the Baltic republics, and interfering in various elections and referendums. Despite Russia’s aggressive behaviour, the West’s response to it has been significantly limited, particularly when it comes to non-military deterrence by Continental Europe. The US and the UK are leading the punishment of Russia’s aggression, while many countries, mainly in Western and Southern Europe, are hesitant to respond to this threat. This article makes recommendations as to what should be done in practical terms to boost the European portion of the Western response to Russian aggression from the political and policy points of view.

Leadership Selection in United Nations Peacekeeping

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kseniya Oksamytna ◽  
Vincenzo Bove ◽  
Magnus Lundgren
Keyword(s):  
United Nations ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Geographic Proximity ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Leadership Selection ◽  
Member States ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Military Commanders ◽  
Civilian Leaders

Abstract States covet leadership and staff positions in international organizations. The posts of civilian leaders and force commanders of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations are attractive to member states. In selecting peacekeeping leaders, the UN Secretariat balances three considerations: satisfying powerful member states by appointing their nationals; recognizing member states’ contribution to the work of the organization; and ensuring that leaders have the necessary skill set. We investigate appointments of more than 200 civilian and military leaders in 24 UN missions, 1990–2017. We find that contributing troops to a specific mission increases the chances of securing a peacekeeping leadership position. Geographic proximity between the leaders’ country and the conflict country is also a favorable factor whose importance has increased over time. Civilian leaders of UN peacekeeping operations tend to hail from institutionally powerful countries, while military commanders come from major, long-standing troop contributing countries. Despite some role that skills play in the appointment process, the UN's dependence on troop contributors, together with its reliance on institutionally powerful states, can be a source of dysfunction if it prevents the organization from selecting effective peacekeeping leaders. This dynamic affects other international organizations that have significant power disparities among members or rely on voluntary contributions.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document