Agro-ecological field vulnerability evaluation and climate change impacts in Souma area (Iran), using MicroLEIS DSS

Biologia ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farzin Shahbazi ◽  
Ali Jafarzadeh ◽  
Mohammad Shahbazi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heavy Metal Contamination ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
North West ◽  
Evaluation Approach

AbstractSoil erosion and contamination are two main desertification indices or land degradation agents in agricultural areas. Global climate change consequence is a priority to predict global environmental change impacts on these degradation risks. This agro-ecological approach can be especially useful when formulating soil specific agricultural practices based on the spatial variability of soils and related resources to reverse environmental degradation. Raizal and Pantanal models within the new MicroLEIS framework, the Ero&Con package, are database/expert system evaluation approach for assessing limitations to land use, or vulnerability of the land to specified agricultural degradation risks. This study was performed in Souma area with approximately 4100 ha extension in the North-West of Iran (west Azarbaijan). Based on 35 sampling soils, Typic Xerofluvents, Typic Calcixerepts, Fluventic Haploxerepts and Fluventic Endaquepts were classified as main subgroups. Climatological data, referred to temperature and precipitation of more than 36 consecutive years were collected from Urmieh station reports and stored in monthly Climate Database CDBm, as a major component of MicroLEIS DSS (CDBm) program. Climate data for a hypothetical future scenario were collected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports for the 2080s period. The evaluation approach predicts that attainable water erosion vulnerability classes were none (V1) very low (V2) and moderately low (V4) in the total of 72%, 13% and 15% of the Souma area, respectively and they will not affected by climate change. On contrary, attainable wind erosion vulnerability classes will increase. Also, phosphorous and heavy metal contamination vulnerability risks will not differ in two compared scenarios while nitrogen and pesticides vulnerability classes will be improved.

Advances in the data rescue and digitization of historical wind speed observations in Sweden: the WINDGUST project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Engström ◽  
Cesar Azorin-Molina ◽  
Lennart Wern ◽  
Sverker Hellström ◽  
Christophe Sturm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
The 1960S

<p>Here we present the progress of the first work package (WP1) of the project “Assessing centennial wind speed variability from a historical weather data rescue project in Sweden” (WINDGUST), funded by FORMAS – A Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (ref. 2019-00509); previously introduced in EGU2019-17792-1 and EGU2020-3491. In a global climate change, one of the major uncertainties on the causes driving the climate variability of winds (i.e., the “stilling” phenomenon and the recent “recovery” since the 2010s) is mainly due to short availability (i.e., since the 1960s) and low quality of observed wind records as stated by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).</p><p>The WINDGUST is a joint initiative between the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and the University of Gothenburg aimed at filling the key gap of short availability and low quality of wind datasets, and improve the limited knowledge on the causes driving wind speed variability in a changing climate across Sweden.</p><p>During 2020, we worked in WP1 to rescue historical wind speed series available in the old weather archives at SMHI for the 1920s-1930s. In the process we followed the “Guidelines on Best Practices for Climate Data Rescue” of the World Meteorological Organization. Our protocol consisted on: (i) designing a template for digitization; (ii) digitizing papers by an imaging process based on scanning and photographs; and (iii) typing numbers of wind speed data into the template. We will report the advances and current status, challenges and experiences learned during the development of WP1. Until new year 2020/2021 eight out of thirteen selected stations spanning over the years 1925 to 1948 have been scanned and digitized by three staff members of SMHI during 1,660 manhours.</p>

scholarly journals Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 674-677 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael R. Kearney ◽  
Natalie J. Briscoe ◽  
David J. Karoly ◽  
Warren P. Porter ◽  
Melanie Norgate ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Regional Warming

There is strong correlative evidence that human-induced climate warming is contributing to changes in the timing of natural events. Firm attribution, however, requires cause-and-effect links between observed climate change and altered phenology, together with statistical confidence that observed regional climate change is anthropogenic. We provide evidence for phenological shifts in the butterfly Heteronympha merope in response to regional warming in the southeast Australian city of Melbourne. The mean emergence date for H. merope has shifted −1.5 days per decade over a 65-year period with a concurrent increase in local air temperatures of approximately 0.16°C per decade. We used a physiologically based model of climatic influences on development, together with statistical analyses of climate data and global climate model projections, to attribute the response of H. merope to anthropogenic warming. Such mechanistic analyses of phenological responses to climate improve our ability to forecast future climate change impacts on biodiversity.

scholarly journals Ensemble models on palaeoclimate to predict India's groundwater challenge

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Partha Sarathi Datta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Ensemble Models ◽  
North West ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
14C Age

In many parts of the world, freshwater crisis is largely due to increasing water consumption and pollution by rapidly growing population and aspirations for economic development, but, ascribed usually to the climate. However, limited understanding and knowledge gaps in the factors controlling climate and uncertainties in the climate models are unable to assess the probable impacts on water availability in tropical regions. In this context, review of ensemble models on δ18O and δD in rainfall and groundwater, 3H- and 14C- ages of groundwater and 14C- age of lakes sediments helped to reconstruct palaeoclimate and long-term recharge in the North-west India; and predict future groundwater challenge. The annual mean temperature trend indicates both warming/cooling in different parts of India in the past and during 1901–2010. Neither the GCMs (Global Climate Models) nor the observational record indicates any significant change/increase in temperature and rainfall over the last century, and climate change during the last 1200 yrs BP. In much of the North-West region, deep groundwater renewal occurred from past humid climate, and shallow groundwater renewal from limited modern recharge over the past decades. To make water management to be more responsive to climate change, the gaps in the science of climate change need to be bridged.

Regional biogeographical model of vegetation zones in doctoral programme Regional Biography in Olomouc (Case study for Norway spruce)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivo Machar ◽  
Marián Halás ◽  
Zdeněk Opršal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Vegetation Zones ◽  
Landscape Research

Regional climate changes impacts induce vegetation zones shift to higher altitudes in temperate landscape. This paper deals with applying of regional biogeography model of climate conditions for vegetation zones in Czechia to doctoral programme Regional Geography in Palacky University Olomouc. The model is based on general knowledge of landscape vegetation zonation. Climate data for model come from predicted validated climate database under RCP8.5 scenario since 2100. Ecological data are included in the Biogeography Register database (geobiocoenological data related to landscape for cadastral areas of the Czech Republic). Mathematical principles of modelling are based on set of software solutions with GIS. Students use the model in the frame of the course “Special Approaches to Landscape Research” not only for regional scenarios climate change impacts in landscape scale, but also for assessment of climate conditions for growing capability of agricultural crops or forest trees under climate change on regional level.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Scientific “Consensus” on Global Warming

1996 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 333-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. Michaels ◽  
Paul C. Knappenberger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Sulfate Aerosols ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Consensus Process ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Extreme Scenario

Climate data support the “moderate” prediction of climate change (l-1.5°C) rather than the more extreme scenario (4°C or more). The moderate point of view was originally marginalized in the IPCC “consensus” process in both the 1990 First Assessment on Climate Change and in the 1992 Update prepared specifically for the Earth Summit and to provide backing for the Rio Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is now accepted, based on ground-based data, that the errors in those models are currently between 160% and 360%. If one compares them to the satellite data combined with the land record, the error rises to a maximum of 720%. In some recognition of this massive error, the 1995 IPCC “consensus” is that warming has been mitigated by sulfate aerosols. However, when that hypothesis is specifically tested, it fails. Further, data required to test the validity of the sulfate enhanced greenhouse models was withheld by the IPCC. despite repeated requests.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

scholarly journals Global Potato Yields Increase Under Climate Change With Adaptation and CO2 Fertilisation

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stewart A. Jennings ◽  
Ann-Kristin Koehler ◽  
Kathryn J. Nicklin ◽  
Chetan Deva ◽  
Steven M. Sait ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Modeling Studies ◽  
Potato Yields

The contribution of potatoes to the global food supply is increasing—consumption more than doubled in developing countries between 1960 and 2005. Understanding climate change impacts on global potato yields is therefore important for future food security. Analyses of climate change impacts on potato compared to other major crops are rare, especially at the global scale. Of two global gridded potato modeling studies published at the time of this analysis, one simulated the impacts of temperature increases on potential potato yields; the other did not simulate the impacts of farmer adaptation to climate change, which may offset negative climate change impacts on yield. These studies may therefore overestimate negative climate change impacts on yields as they do not simultaneously include CO2 fertilisation and adaptation to climate change. Here we simulate the abiotic impacts of climate change on potato to 2050 using the GLAM crop model and the ISI-MIP ensemble of global climate models. Simulations include adaptations to climate change through varying planting windows and varieties and CO2 fertilisation, unlike previous global potato modeling studies. Results show significant skill in reproducing observed national scale yields in Europe. Elsewhere, correlations are generally positive but low, primarily due to poor relationships between national scale observed yields and climate. Future climate simulations including adaptation to climate change through changing planting windows and crop varieties show that yields are expected to increase in most cases as a result of longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilisation. Average global yield increases range from 9 to 20% when including adaptation. The global average yield benefits of adaptation to climate change range from 10 to 17% across climate models. Potato agriculture is associated with lower green house gas emissions relative to other major crops and therefore can be seen as a climate smart option given projected yield increases with adaptation.

Future humidity extremes in an urban-rural context - using regional climate model projections down to convection permitting scales for Berlin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby S. Langendijk ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Urban Rural

<p>Urban areas are prone to climate change impacts. A transition towards sustainable and climate-resilient urban areas is relying heavily on useful, evidence-based climate information on urban scales. However, current climate data and information produced by urban or climate models are either not scale compliant for cities, or do not cover essential parameters and/or urban-rural interactions under climate change conditions. Furthermore, although e.g. the urban heat island may be better understood, other phenomena, such as moisture change, are little researched. Our research shows the potential of regional climate models, within the EURO-CORDEX framework, to provide climate projections and information on urban scales for 11km and 3km grid size. The city of Berlin is taken as a case-study. The results on the 11km spatial scale show that the regional climate models simulate a distinct difference between Berlin and its surroundings for temperature and humidity related variables. There is an increase in urban dry island conditions in Berlin towards the end of the 21st century. To gain a more detailed understanding of climate change impacts, extreme weather conditions were investigated under a 2°C global warming and further downscaled to the 3km scale. This enables the exploration of differences of the meteorological processes between the 11km and 3km scales, and the implications for urban areas and its surroundings. The overall study shows the potential of regional climate models to provide climate change information on urban scales.</p>

Recent Trends, Issues, and Challenges in Water Resource Development and Global Climate Change

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Prakash Rao ◽  
Yogesh Patil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Resource Development ◽  
Water Resource Development ◽  
Climatic Regime ◽  
Recent Trends

Climate change impacts are being felt in many parts of the world and have become an issue of major concern. Tropical countries particularly those in the Asian region are at greater risk and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as indicated by the report of IPCC. With regard to India there are several impacts forecast which could have adverse consequences on the natural resources and ecosystems of the country making them vulnerable and reducing their capacity to cope with a changing climatic regime. This introductory chapter of the book provides an insight to the recent trends, issues and challenges in water resource development in context to the global climate change.

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