Methodological provisions for assessing scientific and technical risk and financial losses during development works to create complex technical systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 1933-1950
Author(s):  
Nikolai V. FIROV ◽  
Sergei A. SOROKIN
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Technical Risk ◽  
Complex Technical Systems ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management ◽  
Financial Losses

Subject. The article addresses scientific and technical risk and financial losses of the customer in the process of research and development works on the creation of complex technical systems. Objectives. The study aims at constructing and analyzing the dependence of scientific and technical risk and financial losses of the customer on the planned volume of development works and the financial resources invested in them. Methods. We apply methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics, system and regression analysis, risk assessment and management. The paper rests on data on completed development projects for complex technical systems creation. Results. We formulated methodological provisions for assessing scientific and technical risk, arising in the process of development works on complex technical systems. The paper presents an algorithm for calculating the expected financial losses from works implementation. The problem of minimizing financial losses associated with scientific and technical risk is formulated and formalized. The feasibility of proposed provisions and recommendations is confirmed by a practical example. Conclusions. To assess risks, it is important to consider the impact of the degree of difference between the main characteristics of developed product and its prototype on the required amount of works at development stage. This enables to build regression dependencies of the volume of works at the development stage on a specified factor, which are later used to assess the scientific and technical risk and associated financial losses.

Planning for Unknown in The New Age of Digital: A Paradigm for Offshore Oil and Gas Risk Assessment and Management

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Hamedifar ◽  
Herve Wilczynski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Service Companies ◽  
Digital Work ◽  
Oil And Gas Operations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management

Abstract Major Oil and Gas operators and service companies look to undertake large scale digital transformations aimed at producing integrated, connected, and intelligent enterprises. These transformations require accelerating the journey to the cloud to modernize the entire application portfolio. By transitioning to the cloud, firms enjoy improved data analytics which allow for evolution to next generation digital work environment. This shift, however, comes with workforce challenges. Employees in all categories and at most levels will require significant cross- and up-skilling to take full advantage of the digital transformation. As vendors, suppliers, service companies, and operators move products and equipment around an expanding ecosystem of assets, security threats are likely to increase due to further geopolitical instability. Data based decision making, which enables the optimization of assets and automation of operations to minimize workforce risk exposure must be implemented with consideration of enterprise risk reduction (across the asset and workforce operational risk life cycle). As Oil and Gas operations become more geographically dispersed and diverse, they are exposed to new and evolving risk factors which can directly impact value. These risk factors make asset acquisition, development, management, and maintenance all more challenging. Analyses of risk in a digital foundation risk-based platform is most valuable at the earliest stages of asset development in determining whether to proceed with the planned development through to end-of-life decommissioning. Successful firms must create an end-to-end digital roadmap which delineates between technical and transactional activities and outlines effective stakeholder engagement at each project stage. The fundamental thesis of this paper is that although risk can be mitigated and reduced through the introduction of digital tools into oil and gas operations, it can never be completely removed. Furthermore, while industry research on the impact of digitalization usually rely heavily on cost savings, optimization, and health, safety, and environment (HSE) related cases, they typically fail to consider the contribution of digitalization on risk assessment and management. This paper argues that we need to move away from the focus on cost savings, process optimization, and HSE metrics improvement metrics. This paper sets up a mechanism for developing risk-based strategies for implementation of digital solutions.

scholarly journals The Synthesis of a Critical Infrastructure Object Model for Safe Operation of a Technical System Under the Conditions of Destructive Information Impact

2020 ◽  
pp. 48-56
Author(s):  
Aleksey Kubarev ◽  
◽  
Aleksey Lapsar’ ◽  
Alexander Asyutikov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
Information Infrastructure ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Evolutionary Models ◽  
Critical Information ◽  
Technical Requirements ◽  
Complex Technical System ◽  
Complex Technical Systems ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of the article: improving the security and stability of the functioning of complex technical systems managed by critical information infrastructure objects under the conditions of a destructive information impact, using parameterized evolutionary models. Methods: synthesis of parametrized evolutionary models of significant objects of critical information infrastructure based on the Markov theory of estimation of multidimensional diffusion processes. The result: within the framework of an integrated approach to ensuring the security of complex technical systems, a parametrized evolutionary model of an object of a critical information infrastructure operating under conditions of destructive information impact has been synthesized. An approach to the development of recommendations for managing a complex technical system by means of an operational assessment of the main characteristics of the functioning of a critical information infrastructure object is proposed. A sequence has been developed for developing solutions for the operation of a complex technical system, based on an assessment of the impact level and the results of an operational calculation of the main characteristics of the functioning of a critical information infrastructure object. The results obtained make it possible to reasonably formulate technical requirements for the created or modernized means of ensuring the security of significant objects of critical information infrastructure that manage complex technical systems.

scholarly journals Development of Rule-Based Software Risk Assessment and Management Method with Fuzzy Inference System

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Mustafa Batar ◽  
Kökten Ulaş Birant ◽  
Ali Hakan Işık
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Software Development ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Management Method ◽  
Software Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management

There is an enormous budget and financial plan in software development projects, and it is required that they take a huge investment to carry on. When looked at, the costs depend on the global substantial information about software development: in 1985, $150 billion; in 2010, $2 trillion; in 2015, $5 trillion; and in 2020, over $7 trillion. Additionally, on the first new days of 2021, a day-by-day Apple Store’s quantity has been approximately $500 million. In spite of the expenditures and the margins that are dramatically expanding and increasing each year, the phase of software development accomplishment is not high enough. In light of the “CHAOS” report arranged in 2015, just 17% of the software projects were finished in an opportune way, in the allotted financial plan, and as per the necessities. However, 53% of the software projects were finished in the long run or potentially over a spending plan as well as without satisfying the prerequisites precisely. In addition, software development projects were not completed and were dropped out as well in the ratio of 30%. Also, the “CHAOS” report published in 2020 has figured out that only 33% of the software projects were completed successfully all over the world. In order to cope with these unsuccessful and failure results, an effective method for software risk assessment and management has to be specified, designated, and applied. In this way, before causing trouble that has the power of preventing successful accomplishment of software development projects, software risks are able to be noticed and distinguished on time. In this study, a new and original rule set, which could be used and carried out effectively in software risk assessment and management, has been designed and developed based on the implementation of fuzzy approached technique integrated with machine learning algorithm—Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). By this approach and technique, machines (computers) are able to create several software risk rules not to be seen, not to be recognized, and not to be told by human beings. In addition, this fuzzy inference approach aims to decrease risks in the software development process in order to increase the success rate of the software projects. Also, the experimental results of this approach show that rule-based software risk assessment and management method has a valid and accurate model with a high accuracy rate and low average testing error.

Risk

2019 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Kellie Grant ◽  
Jenny Martin ◽  
Jenni White ◽  
Terry Haines
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Professionals ◽  
Common Law ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Healthcare Practice ◽  
Core Elements ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management

Risk assessment and management are considered core elements of healthcare practice. However, a brief examination of the theoretical literature on risk demonstrates that it is not a fixed concept. This chapter will critically analyze the impact that focusing on risk has on healthcare practice. The authors will join many others in pointing out the many potential negative impacts of viewing healthcare through the lens of risk. One risk type, suicide risk, will be examined closely. It will be shown that health professionals often fear liability when risk is a factor. In order to dissuade these fears, the legal elements of liability will be outlined, and relevant common law judgements will be discussed. Finally, future directions will be discussed.

Development of elements of a management system of preventive forecasting potential of complex technical systems

2020 ◽  
pp. 11-15
Author(s):  
A. V. Urentsev ◽  
S. A. Nazarevich
Keyword(s):  
Average Method ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Analytical Data ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Scale Production ◽  
Complex Technical System ◽  
Complex Technical Systems ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Information Bank

The article discusses the problems of forecasting technical and consumer characteristics at designing or modernization of complex technical systems. The model of the technique of complex technical system potential monitoring is proposed, it consists of two successive stages: analysis of technical level of the researched object relatively to its competitor and forecasting changes of consumer characteristics of the leading analogue for studied object using the moving average method. The methodology algorithm for monitoring of potential of a complex technical systems has been developed. The features of the developed methodology connected with obtaining of analytical data basing on which the enterprise becomes able to control the trends of complex technical systems modernization are indicated. Also the renewal of knowledge information bank will promote development of flexibility of small-scale production technological processes and adaptation to the factors of external competitive environment, adjusting itself to the needs of the current customer without extra human and financial resources.

scholarly journals ALLIANCE perspectives on integration of humans and the environment into the system of radiological protection

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 285-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Vandenhove ◽  
C. Bradshaw ◽  
N.A. Beresford ◽  
J. Vives i Batlle ◽  
A. Real ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Ecological Impact ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Radiological Protection ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Stochastic Effects ◽  
Transfer Processes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management

Risks posed by the presence of radionuclides in the environment require an efficient, balanced, and adaptable assessment for protecting exposed humans and wildlife, and managing the associated radiological risk. Exposure of humans and wildlife originate from the same sources releasing radionuclides to the environment. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides serve as inputs to estimate the dose to man, fauna, and flora, with transfer processes being, in essence, similar, which calls for a common use of transport models. Dose estimates are compared with the radiological protection criteria for humans and wildlife, such as those developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. This indicates a similarity in the approaches for impact assessment in humans and wildlife, although some elements are different (e.g. the protection endpoint for humans is stochastic effects on individuals, whereas for wildlife, it is deterministic effects on species and ecosystems). Human and environmental assessments are consistent and complementary in terms of how they are conducted and in terms of the underlying databases (where appropriate). Not having an integrated approach may cause difficulties for operators and regulators, for communication to stakeholders, and may even hamper decision making. For optimised risk assessment and management, the impact from non-radiation contaminants and stressors should also be considered. Both in terms of the underlying philosophy and the application via appropriate tools, the European Radioecology Alliance (ALLIANCE) upholds that integration of human and ecological impact and risk assessment is recommended from several perspectives (e.g. chemical/radiological risks).

scholarly journals Human Factor as a Determinant of Reliability and Safety of Technical Systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 195-220
Author(s):  
Jacek Ryczyński
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Conference Papers

Abstract The article presents the analysis of the state of knowledge about the impact of the human factor on selected aspects of reliability of technical systems based on selected papers delivered at the ESREL 2018 conference, which took place on June 17-22, 2018 in Trondheim, Norway. In the first part, statistical analysis was carried out in the area of thematic and methodological conference papers. Next, the impact of the human factor on the correct functioning of selected technical systems was discussed, using conference papers on the role of man in ensuring an appropriate level of cyber security, the role of expert knowledge in risk assessment, and innovative risk management methods. In summary, challenges for scientists were identified and further research directions in the analysed area.

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