Benchmark test for calculated default probability values derived from the application of rating-based models

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 2719-2745
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. POMAZANOV
Keyword(s):  
Subject Area ◽  
Default Probability ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
Loan Portfolio ◽  
Benchmark Test ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Interval Approach ◽  
Statistical Hypotheses ◽  
Rating Model

Subject. This article deals with the issues of validation of the consistency of rating-based model forecasts. Objectives. The article aims to provide developers and validators of rating-based models with a practical fundamental test for benchmarking study of the estimated default probability values obtained as a result of the application of models used in the rating system. Methods. For the study, I used the classical interval approach to testing of statistical hypotheses focused on the subject area of calibration of rating systems. Results. In addition to the generally accepted tests for the correspondence of the predicted probabilities of default of credit risk objects to the historically realized values, the article proposes a new statistical test that corrects the shortcomings of the generally accepted ones, focused on "diagnosing" the consistency of the implemented discrimination of objects by the rating model. Examples of recognizing the reasons for a negative test result and negative consequences for lending are given while maintaining the current settings of the rating model. In addition to the bias in the assessment of the total frequency of defaults in the loan portfolio, the proposed method makes it possible to objectively reveal the inadequacy of discrimination against borrowers with a calibrated rating model, diagnose the “disease” of the rating model. Conclusions and Relevance. The new practical benchmark test allows to reject the hypothesis about the consistency of assessing the probability of default by the rating model at a given level of confidence and available historical data. The test has the advantage of practical interpretability based on its results, it is possible to draw a conclusion about the direction of the model correction. The offered test can be used in the process of internal validation by the bank of its own rating models, which is required by the Bank of Russia for approaches based on internal ratings.

scholarly journals Nursery School Cooperation with the Family in the Field of Media Education in Children

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 83-98
Author(s):  
Vladimíra Kocourková ◽  
Kamil Janiš ◽  
Veronika Woznicová
Keyword(s):  
Nursery School ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
Media Education ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Specific Topic ◽  
School Teachers ◽  
Nursery Schools ◽  
Research Survey ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Introduction: The paper focuses on a narrowly specific topic of the family cooperation with an institution of pre-school education - the nursery school (or also just the nursery), concentrating on a specific topic of “media education”. It considers the determining factors and presents partial findings of a research survey aimed at the field of media education in nursery schools. Methods: The paper contains the results of our own questionnaire research, which was carried out online in nursery school teachers. It also contains a theoretical definition of media literacy and media education in the context of the target group. Results: The result is an analysis of the obtained findings and formulated proposals for measures in the given field, which are usable and applicable in practice. Discussion: The individual presented results are continuously discussed with regard to the findings from the field of media education in the nursery school. Today, the world of the media is a common part of life even for children of pre-school age, and therefore it is necessary to teach them to orient themselves in it, which should be one of the tasks of the nursery school. In the Czech Republic, this issue has not yet been addressed at a significant level or to an appropriate extent. Our results are therefore closely linked not only to the discussion comments, but also to the conclusions drawn from them. Limitations: The results of the empirical research may be influenced by the attitudes and prejudices of nursery school teachers in relation to media in pre-school children. Conclusion: An early intervention can teach children to use media for their benefit and prevent media from negatively affecting them. The negative consequences of unrestrained effects of e.g. the television or mobile phones have been empirically proven. This information about the negative consequences is very general, distorted or superficial for the general public (parents), though. We consider the implementation of media education into the “teaching” process in nursery schools to be inevitable, even with regard to a closer cooperation between the institution and parents. However, this also places increased demands on training pedagogical staff in nursery schools in the subject area, creating methodological materials, etc.

Critically engaging discourses on quality improvement: Political and pedagogical futures in early childhood education

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Reinke ◽  
Lacey Peters ◽  
Daniel Castner
Keyword(s):  
Early Childhood ◽  
Quality Improvement ◽  
Teacher Educators ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
Teacher Performance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Performance Assessments ◽  
Early Childhood Teacher ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Rating Systems

This article is a commentary developed by three early childhood teacher educators who are concerned about the negative consequences of contemporary policy trends in the United States. The commentary critically examines the influence of quality improvement in early childhood as it relates to environmental rating systems and the use of teacher performance assessments, more specifically, the Early Childhood Environmental Rating Scale and the Teacher Performance Assessment. The article concludes with a potential vision for early childhood scholars and practitioners—building solidarity to function as an emerging, powerful, ethical community of early childhood curriculum workers that thrives without consensus.

scholarly journals Structured climate financing: valuation of CDO on inhomogeneous asset pools

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Packham
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Finite Number ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Default Probability ◽  
Gaussian Copula ◽  
Loan Portfolio ◽  
Credit Quality ◽  
Similar Role

AbstractRecently, a number of structured funds have emerged as public-private partnerships with the intent of promoting investment in renewable energy in emerging markets. These funds seek to attract institutional investors by tranching the asset pool and issuing senior notes with a high credit quality. Financing of renewable energy (RE) projects is achieved via two channels: small RE projects are financed indirectly through local banks that draw loans from the fund’s assets, whereas large RE projects are directly financed from the fund. In a bottom-up Gaussian copula framework, we examine the diversification properties and RE exposure of the senior tranche. To this end, we introduce the LH++ model, which combines a homogeneous infinitely granular loan portfolio with a finite number of large loans. Using expected tranche percentage notional (which takes a similar role as the default probability of a loan), tranche prices and tranche sensitivities in RE loans, we analyse the risk profile of the senior tranche. We show how the mix of indirect and direct RE investments in the asset pool affects the sensitivity of the senior tranche to RE investments and how to balance a desired sensitivity with a target credit quality and target tranche size.

scholarly journals Feasibility Study of Credit Risk Rating Systems in Banks

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 294-306
Author(s):  
Lakshmi P
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Credit Risk Management ◽  
Credit Policy ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Risk Rating ◽  
Private Banks ◽  
Rating Model

Credit risk rating is an important tool used by banks to quantify risk associated with lending. Accuracy of the rating mechanism is an important aspect as it affects the nature and quality of credit decisions made. A wrong rating may affect not only the sustainability and goodwill of the banks; it can even affect the overall economic harmony and balance, as banks are barometers of the economy. Recent global economic crisis of 2008, itself showcases a need for very strict and accurate credit policy. Under this back drop, present study aims to analyze the credit risk rating mechanism of banks. A comparative study of the different risk rating models adopted by public and private banks in Thiruvananthapuram district (Kerala, India) is made and study attempts to determine the lacuna in the present risk rating model, if any. The study aims to provide suggestions to improve the credit risk management of banks.

scholarly journals Impact of the global pandemic COVID-19 on the banking sector

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-82
Author(s):  
Gennadiy BORTNIKOV ◽  
◽  
Vira OHORODNYK ◽  
Oleksandr LYUBICH ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Scientific Paper ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Loan Portfolio ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Stability

The article analyses the peculiarities of the global pandemic COVID-19 impact and related quarantine restrictions imposed on the Ukrainian banking sector and other European countries. The purpose of the study is to determine the negative consequences of such an impact due to the global pandemic COVID-19, as well as to outline the effectiveness of implemented (planned) measures of governments and central banks to neutralize the effects of this impact on banks. Particular attention is paid to: the study of changes in GDP dynamics in European countries in the crisis periods of 2008-2009 and 2019-2021; the analysis of the efficiency of banks during the global crisis of 2019-2021; determining the quality of the Ukrainian banks’ loan portfolio (by economic sectors). The scientific paper notes that the negative factor influencing the stability of the country’s banking sector (during the crisis period of 2019-2021) is the increased dependence on banks investments in government securities and low diversification of banks credit investments in various sectors of the economy (especially this issue applies to state-owned banks in Ukraine). Examining the liquidity of the banking sector, it has been determined that the National Bank of Ukraine has taken similar global measures to support the liquidity of banks during the global pandemic. The anti-crisis measures introduced by the National Bank of Ukraine since December 2020 were also analysed in detail, among which the most effective were: restructuring of loans for individuals and enterprises; development by banks of plans for resumption of their full-fledged activity; suspension of the introduction of capital buffers; weakening in terms of liquidity ratio LCR.

Determining Emotional Tone and Verbal Behavior in Patients With Tinnitus and Hyperacusis: An Exploratory Mixed-Methods Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 660-672
Author(s):  
Suzanne H. Kimball ◽  
Toby Hamilton ◽  
Erin Benear ◽  
Jonathan Baldwin
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Methods ◽  
Verbal Behavior ◽  
Coping Strategies ◽  
Mixed Methods Study ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Anxiety And Depression ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Emotional Tone ◽  
Explanatory Mixed Methods ◽  
Quantitative Results

Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate the emotional tone and verbal behavior of social media users who self-identified as having tinnitus and/or hyperacusis that caused self-described negative consequences on daily life or health. Research Design and Method An explanatory mixed-methods design was utilized. Two hundred “initial” and 200 “reply” Facebook posts were collected from members of a tinnitus group and a hyperacusis group. Data were analyzed via the LIWC 2015 software program and compared to typical bloggers. As this was an explanatory mixed-methods study, we used qualitative thematic analyses to explain, interpret, and illustrate the quantitative results. Results Overall, quantitative results indicated lower overall emotional tone for all categories (tinnitus and hyperacusis, initial and reply), which was mostly influenced by higher negative emotion. Higher levels of authenticity or truth were found in the hyperacusis sample but not in the tinnitus sample. Lower levels of clout (social standing) were indicated in all groups, and a lower level of analytical thinking style (concepts and complex categories rather than narratives) was found in the hyperacusis sample. Additional analysis of the language indicated higher levels of sadness and anxiety in all groups and lower levels of anger, particularly for initial replies. These data support prior findings indicating higher levels of anxiety and depression in this patient population based on the actual words in blog posts and not from self-report questionnaires. Qualitative results identified 3 major themes from both the tinnitus and hyperacusis texts: suffering, negative emotional tone, and coping strategies. Conclusions Results from this study suggest support for the predominant clinical view that patients with tinnitus and hyperacusis have higher levels of anxiety and depression than the general population. The extent of the suffering described and patterns of coping strategies suggest clinical practice patterns and the need for research in implementing improved practice plans.

1249: Internal Validation of a Competing-Risks Survival Nomogram for Patients Treated with Cystectomy for Bladder Cancer

2006 ◽  
Vol 175 (4S) ◽  
pp. 402-402
Author(s):  
Alberto Briganti ◽  
K.-H. Felix Chun ◽  
Shahrokh F. Shariat ◽  
Yair Lotan ◽  
Ganesh S. Palapattu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bladder Cancer ◽  
Competing Risks ◽  
Internal Validation

Serum Vitamin B12 Concentrations among Mothers and Newborns and Follow-up Study to Assess Implication on the Growth Velocity and the Urinary Methylmalonic Acid Excretion

2009 ◽  
Vol 79 (56) ◽  
pp. 297-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laila Hussein ◽  
Sahar Abdel Aziz ◽  
Salwa Tapouzada ◽  
Boehles
Keyword(s):  
Early Diagnosis ◽  
Growth Velocity ◽  
Methylmalonic Acid ◽  
Post Partum ◽  
Serum Vitamin ◽  
Vitamin B ◽  
Postnatal Life ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Metabolic Marker ◽  
Biochemical Measurement

Objective:Cobalamin (B12) deficiency has been reported in infants born to mothers with low cobalamin intake. Early diagnosis of vitamin B12 deficiency in infants is critical for the prevention of neurobehavioral disorders. We investigated the relationship between serum vitamin B12 level in newborns and in their healthy mothers who consumed an omnivorous diet. Anthropometry was studied longitudinally to assess the growth velocity of the infants. Urinary methylmalonic acid (MMA) excretion of 6-month old infants was compared retrospectively as the biomarker correlated with the initial serum vitamin B12 concentrations. Methods: Serum cobalamin and blood hemoglobin were determined in 84 pairs of newborns and their mothers. Urinary MMA excretion was measured in the same subjects during the first 6 months of the post partum period. Results: At birth, median serum cobalamin levels were 152.0 pmol/L in the mothers and 296.6 pmol/L in the newborns. Maternal and neonatal serum cobalamin levels had no effect on growth velocity during the first six months of postnatal life. Serum maternal and neonatal cobalamin levels were inversely associated with urinary MMA excretion. Conclusion: Early diagnosis of vitamin B12 status in neonates and infants is crucial, particularly in nutritionally deprived areas. Biochemical measurement of plasma cobalamin or its metabolic marker MMA is highly recommended. Urinary MMA measurement in cobalamin diagnostics provides an advantage in that blood sampling is not required. A vitamin B12 taskforce should be created to alleviate vitamin deficiency and its negative consequences.

The Hierarchical Model of Exercise Dependence

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 247-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gayatri Kotbagi ◽  
Laurence Kern ◽  
Lucia Romo ◽  
Ramesh Pathare
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Confirmatory Factor Analysis ◽  
Physical Exercise ◽  
Exploratory Factor Analysis ◽  
Convergent Validity ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Confirmatory Factor ◽  
Preliminary Version

Abstract. Physical exercise when done excessively may have negative consequences on physical and psychological wellbeing. There exist many scales to measure this phenomenon. The purpose of this article is to create a scale measuring the problematic practice of physical exercise (PPPE Scale) by combining two assessment tools already existing in the field of exercise dependency but anchored in different approaches (EDS-R and EDQ). This research consists of three studies carried out on three independent sample populations. The first study (N = 341) tested the construct validity (exploratory factor analysis); the second study (N = 195) tested the structural validity (confirmatory factor analysis) and the third study (N = 104) tested the convergent validity (correlations) of the preliminary version of the PPPE scale. Exploratory factor analysis identified six distinct dimensions associated with exercise dependency. Furthermore, confirmatory factor analysis validated a second order model consisting of 25 items with six dimensions and four sub-dimensions. The convergent validity of this scale with other constructs (GLTEQ, EAT26, and The Big Five Inventory [BFI]) is satisfactory. The preliminary version of the PPPE must be administered to a large population to refine its psychometric properties and develop scoring norms.

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