scholarly journals Cluster analysis and individual anthropogenic risk

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.V. Moskvichev ◽  
U.S. Postnikova ◽  
O.V. Taseiko
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Acceptable Level ◽  
Mathematical Approach ◽  
Multivariate Statistic ◽  
General Basis ◽  
Territorial Group ◽  
Level Of Risk

Models and assessment methods of anthropogenic risk are analyzed at this article, general basis of mathematical approach for risk analysis is disclosed. Based on multivariate statistic methods, algorithm of analysis for Siberian territories safety is formulated, it allows to define acceptable level of risk for each territorial group (cities with population density more than 70 000, towns with population less than 70 000, and municipals areas).

scholarly journals An analysis of COVID-19 clusters in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pooja Sengupta ◽  
Bhaswati Ganguli ◽  
Sugata SenRoy ◽  
Aditya Chatterjee
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Homogeneous Groups

Abstract Background In this study we cluster the districts of India in terms of the spread of COVID-19 and related variables such as population density and the number of specialty hospitals. Simulation using a compartment model is used to provide insight into differences in response to public health interventions. Two case studies of interest from Nizamuddin and Dharavi provide contrasting pictures of the success in curbing spread. Methods A cluster analysis of the worst affected districts in India provides insight about the similarities between them. The effects of public health interventions in flattening the curve in their respective states is studied using the individual contact SEIQHRF model, a stochastic individual compartment model which simulates disease prevalence in the susceptible, infected, recovered and fatal compartments. Results The clustering of hotspot districts provide homogeneous groups that can be discriminated in terms of number of cases and related covariates. The cluster analysis reveal that the distribution of number of COVID-19 hospitals in the districts does not correlate with the distribution of confirmed COVID-19 cases. From the SEIQHRF model for Nizamuddin we observe in the second phase the number of infected individuals had seen a multitudinous increase in the states where Nizamuddin attendees returned, increasing the risk of the disease spread. However, the simulations reveal that implementing administrative interventions, flatten the curve. In Dharavi, through tracing, tracking, testing and treating, massive breakout of COVID-19 was brought under control. Conclusions The cluster analysis performed on the districts reveal homogeneous groups of districts that can be ranked based on the burden placed on the healthcare system in terms of number of confirmed cases, population density and number of hospitals dedicated to COVID-19 treatment. The study rounds up with two important case studies on Nizamuddin basti and Dharavi to illustrate the growth curve of COVID-19 in two very densely populated regions in India. In the case of Nizamuddin, the study showed that there was a manifold increase in the risk of infection. In contrast it is seen that there was a rapid decline in the number of cases in Dharavi within a span of about one month.

scholarly journals Technical Infrastructure Increasing Resistance in the Natural Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Šárka KROČOVÁ
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Environment ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Living Conditions ◽  
Acceptable Level ◽  
Natural Phenomena ◽  
The World

The natural environment has its specific patterns that a human must take into account during realisation of any technical infrastructure of the world countries. Underestimating the dangers that can arise from natural phenomena has often serious consequences. Forsome constructions of technical infrastructure, especially their line constructions, there will be a high number of operational accidentswith extremely negative impact on the supplied regions with energy or drinking water. Other types of technical infrastructure forexample in nuclear power have a potential to create a natural emergency threaten the environment not only in the country of theirdislocation but also in the long term to change living conditions in entire regions.The following article deals with this issue in a suffcient basic range suggests chat ways and means to recognize the threat of danger andthen based on risk analysis to eliminate the consequences to an acceptable level.

DIGITAL ECONOMY AS A BASIS OF ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-72
Author(s):  
М.В. Свирина
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Security System ◽  
Acceptable Level ◽  
Complete Elimination ◽  
Level Of Risk

В данной статье рассматриваются особенности функционирования цифровой экономики в современных условиях. В условиях цифровой экономики полное устранение опасности или риска неизбежно влечет за собой отказ от дополнительных возможностей развития экономики. Поэтому при построении системы безопасности необходимо определить приемлемый уровень риска как с точки зрения его управляемости и предсказуемости, так и возможных последствий. This article discusses the features of the functioning of the digital economy in modern conditions. In the digital economy, the complete elimination of danger or risk inevitably entails the rejection of additional opportunities for economic development. Therefore, when building a security system, it is necessary to determine an acceptable level of risk, both in terms of its controllability and predictability, as well as possible consequences.

BUSINESS RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 4-12
Author(s):  
S. A. FILIN ◽  
◽  
N. A. FADEEVA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Specific Situation ◽  
Business Risk ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Modern Business ◽  
The Subject

In this article, the subject of research is the methods of risk assessment in business as the main way to minimize risks when choosing a particular scenario for the development of events, as well as the difficulty in choosing a method for further analysis. The purpose of this article is to identify the most appropriate risk assessment method for a given situation and, accordingly, compare them and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the methods under consideration. The article provides examples for specific situations of the most commonly used risk assessment methods in modern business. Recommendations for the most effective application of the analyzed methods are offered, depending on the goal of risk analysis and a specific situation. The results and conclusions are presented, corresponding to the set goal.

Determining an acceptable level of risk

1988 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 873-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Curtis C. Travis ◽  
Holly A. Hattemer-Frey
Keyword(s):  
Acceptable Level ◽  
Level Of Risk

scholarly journals Stages of spatial dispersion of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland in the first six months (4 March-20 September, 2020).

2021 ◽  
Vol 94 (3) ◽  
pp. 305-324
Author(s):  
Przemysław Śleszyński
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Concentration Index ◽  
Spatial Dispersion ◽  
First Case ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Day By Day

The article is a continuation of research published by the author elsewhere (Śleszyński, 2020). The elaboration presents the regularity of spatial distribution of infections during the first six months after the detection of SARS-CoV-2 coronovirus in Poland under strong lockdown conditions. The main aim is to try to determine the basic temporal-spatial patterns and to answer the questions: to what extent the phenomenon was ordered and to what extent it was chaotic, whether there are any particular features of spread, whether the infection is concentrated or dispersed and whether the spreading factors in Poland are similar to those observed in other countries. Day by day data were used according to the counties collected in Rogalski’s team (2020). The data were aggregated to weekly periods (7 days) and then the regularity of spatial distribution was searched for using the cartogram method, time series shifts, rope correlation between the intensity of infections in different periods, Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index (HHI) and cluster analysis. A spatial typology of infection development in the population was also performed. Among other things, it was shown that during the first period (about 100 days after the first case), the infections became more and more spatially concentrated and then dispersed. Differences were also shown in relation to the spread of the infection compared to observations from other countries, i.e. no relation to population density and level of urbanization.

scholarly journals The Use of Predictive Maintenance in the Production Processes

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aneta NAPIERAJ
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Production Process ◽  
Preventive Maintenance ◽  
Cost Reduction ◽  
Predictive Maintenance ◽  
Acceptable Level ◽  
Safety Requirements ◽  
Production Processes ◽  
Machine Reliability ◽  
Level Of Risk

Failures are a problem for every company that causes the plant to stop working and thus incur losses. It is therefore obvious thatcompanies want to eliminate unplanned downtime in the production process. In the wake of the still increasing demands in termsof productivity and safety requirements, cost reduction, the industry is forced to seek the optimum between economic requirementsand an acceptable level of risk in terms of security. Modern factories equipped with computerized processes and extensive diagnostictools often do not use all the information that is collected from the hardware level. It happens that some of the relationshipsbetween events are often overlooked or neglected.The article presents an approach to increasing machine reliability through predictive data analysis. The assumptions of the predictiveand preventive maintenance methods are presented. The threats and possibilities offered by this methodology implemented inthe production process are presented.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document