scholarly journals A New Zealand study of association between crime and the state of the economy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Shuhan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
National Level ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Var Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Impact

<p>The aim of this thesis is to investigate whether there are associations between economically motivated crimes and macroeconomic variables. Economically motivated crimes include burglary, fraud and theft. Non-traffic offences are used as the measurement of overall crime levels, and an association between non-traffic offences and macroeconomic variables is analysed as well. Forecasting the number of people charged with burglary, fraud, theft and non-traffic offences is another objective of this thesis. Association between economically motivated crimes and the unemployment rate is also analysed at a regional level.  Methods used in this thesis include Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. VECM and VAR models are used to produce Granger-Causality tests and impulse responses in order to summarise the associations between crimes and macroeconomic variables. All modelling methods are used to generate forecasts.  The conclusion from this thesis is that there are associations between crime and some macroeconomic variables at a national level. The biggest impact on crime is its own value in the past. The impact of macroeconomic variables is minor, and this makes the sign of the impact less important. In fact, the sign of the impact is hard to conclude because it moves between positive and negative in different periods. At a national level, the growth rate of unemployment causes the growth rate of burglary, theft and non-traffic charges. The association between unemployment and crime becomes insignificant once all macroeconomic variables are included. Overall, the growth rate of personal weekly average income or household debt and disposable income ratio (both measuring personal or household financial condition) causes an increase in the growth rate of burglary, theft and non-traffic charges. Movement of inflation causes an increase in the growth rate of fraud charges. At a regional level, growth in the unemployment rate causes an increase in theft charges in Auckland and Northland. In Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast, growth in the unemployment rate causes growth in burglary charges and vice versa. Growth in the unemployment rate causes growth in the rate of fraud charges, but this is found in Northland only. Forecasts produced by this study suggest that the number of people charged with burglary, theft, fraud and non-traffic offences will continue to decrease up until 2019, but at a lower rate of reduction.</p>

scholarly journals A New Zealand study of association between crime and the state of the economy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Shuhan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
National Level ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Var Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Impact

<p>The aim of this thesis is to investigate whether there are associations between economically motivated crimes and macroeconomic variables. Economically motivated crimes include burglary, fraud and theft. Non-traffic offences are used as the measurement of overall crime levels, and an association between non-traffic offences and macroeconomic variables is analysed as well. Forecasting the number of people charged with burglary, fraud, theft and non-traffic offences is another objective of this thesis. Association between economically motivated crimes and the unemployment rate is also analysed at a regional level.  Methods used in this thesis include Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. VECM and VAR models are used to produce Granger-Causality tests and impulse responses in order to summarise the associations between crimes and macroeconomic variables. All modelling methods are used to generate forecasts.  The conclusion from this thesis is that there are associations between crime and some macroeconomic variables at a national level. The biggest impact on crime is its own value in the past. The impact of macroeconomic variables is minor, and this makes the sign of the impact less important. In fact, the sign of the impact is hard to conclude because it moves between positive and negative in different periods. At a national level, the growth rate of unemployment causes the growth rate of burglary, theft and non-traffic charges. The association between unemployment and crime becomes insignificant once all macroeconomic variables are included. Overall, the growth rate of personal weekly average income or household debt and disposable income ratio (both measuring personal or household financial condition) causes an increase in the growth rate of burglary, theft and non-traffic charges. Movement of inflation causes an increase in the growth rate of fraud charges. At a regional level, growth in the unemployment rate causes an increase in theft charges in Auckland and Northland. In Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast, growth in the unemployment rate causes growth in burglary charges and vice versa. Growth in the unemployment rate causes growth in the rate of fraud charges, but this is found in Northland only. Forecasts produced by this study suggest that the number of people charged with burglary, theft, fraud and non-traffic offences will continue to decrease up until 2019, but at a lower rate of reduction.</p>

Market overreaction, firm-specific information and macroeconomic variables in US and Chinese markets during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ooi Kok Loang ◽  
Zamri Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Chinese Markets ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loser Portfolio

PurposeThis study examines the impact of firm-specific information and macroeconomic variables on market overreaction of US and Chinese winner and loser portfolio before and during COVID-19.Design/methodology/approachThe firm-specific information includes firm size, volume, volatility, return of asset (ROA), return of equity (ROE), earning per share (EPS) and quick ratio while the macroeconomic variables are export rate, import rate, real GDP, nominal GDP, FDI, IPI and unemployment rate. Besides, one-third of the top performance stocks are categorized as winner portfolio while one-third of lowest performance stocks are categorized as loser portfolio. This study uses AECR to indicate stock return and measure market overreaction. GAECR is used to determine contrarian profit. The data range of pre-COVID-19 is from 1-Jan-2015 to 31-Dec-2019 while the period of COVID-19 is from 1-Jan-2020 to 31-Dec-2020.FindingsIn pre-COVID-19, firm-specific information (volatility, ROA, ROE and EPS) and macroeconomic variables are found to be correlated to stock return in US and Chinese portfolios except Chinese winner portfolio. Nonetheless, the impact of firm-specific information has vanished and macroeconomic variables are significant to stock return in COVID-19. It shows that investors rely on the economic indicators to trade in turbulent period due to emergence of COVID-19 as a disruption in market. Furthermore, US and Chinese portfolios are overreacted during COVID-19. Chinese loser portfolio has higher tendency of overreaction than US loser portfolio while US winner portfolio has higher tendency of overreaction than Chinese winner portfolio.Originality/valueThe results of this study assists academician, practitioners and investors on understanding and create awareness to the existence of market overreaction and the determinants that can cause the phenomenon.

scholarly journals The time series regression analysis in evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-210
Author(s):  
Utriweni Mukhaiyar ◽  
Devina Widyanti ◽  
Sandy Vantika
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Function Model ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia on the USD/IDR exchange rate using the Transfer Function Model and Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX) Model. This paper uses daily data on the COVID-19 case in Indonesia, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the IDX Composite period from 1 March to 29 June 2020. The analysis shows: (1) the higher the increase of the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia will significantly weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate, (2) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia six days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.003%, (3) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia seven days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.17%, and (4) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia eight days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.24%.

scholarly journals Factors affecting stock market index volatility: Empirical study

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 169-176
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ali Al-Rimawi ◽  
Thair Adnan Kaddumi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Impact

How is stock market price volatility affected, and what is the nature of the impact that macroeconomic variables do on the stock market price direction? The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of some selected macroeconomic variables (inflation rate (INR), interest rate (IR), economic growth rate (EGR), and foreign investment (FI)) on Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) fluctuation for the period 1999–2018. The information is based on the annual data published by industrial companies listed at ASE. The study adopted a descriptive-analytical approach, also simple and multiple linear regression analysis was employed for the mentioned purpose (Nurfadilah & Samidi, 2017). The results revealed that there is no statistically significant impact of INR, IR, EGR, and FI collectively on ASE performance (Niewińska, 2020). Individually, the results indicated that there is a statistically significant impact of all variables (INR, IR, EGR, and FI) on ASE performance. Additionally, the results concluded that foreign investment, portrayed the highest impact factor on ASE performance, followed by a change in average interest rate, then inflation rate, and the least impact attributes to the economic growth rate. Finally, the research recommends that Jordanian banks should reduce the lending interest rate to enhance investment in securities and improve economic growth rate, also Jordanian authorities should encourage foreign direct and indirect investment and make more efforts to attract more foreign investment, either in the form of tax incentives or by extending finance at low-interest rates.

Railway fuel and its impact on the forests in colonial India: The case of the Punjab, 1860–1884

2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 1283-1309 ◽  
Author(s):  
PALLAVI V. DAS
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
National Level ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Colonial State ◽  
Colonial India ◽  
Railway Line ◽  
State Response ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRecent studies have stressed the need for micro-histories of the environment so that important differences and similarities at local, regional and national level might be revealed. This paper analyses the process and patterns of environmental degradation at regional level by taking the case of deforestation in colonial Punjab by studying its implication at the level of empire. More specifically, it examines three aspects of how the operation and expansion of railways from 1869 to 1884, a peak period of railway expansion, affected the forests of the Punjab's plains. First, the paper analyses the reasons for large-scale railway expansion in the Punjab by discussing spatial and temporal expansion. Secondly, the impact of the railway firewood demand on the Punjab's forests between 1860 and 1884 is examined, specifically, the conditions that facilitated the increased dependence of the railways on firewood. Next follows an examination of the temporally varying nature of deforestation, given that railway firewood demand was determined by railway line openings. This section also includes a discussion on the nature of the colonial state response to the deforestation crisis and its role in maintaining the fuel supply to the railways. Finally, in the context of deforestation in the Punjab, the paper discusses how and why railway fuel changed from firewood to coal.

scholarly journals PERBANDINGAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI INDONESIA SEBELUM DAN SAAT PANDEMI COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Adinda Putri ◽  
Alya Azzahra ◽  
Denita Dwi Andiany ◽  
Dicki Abdurohman ◽  
Prido Putra Sinaga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Classification Analysis ◽  
Multiple Classification Analysis ◽  
Multiple Classification ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Drastic Increase ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Since Covid-19 arrived in Indonesia, all policies have been carried out to stop the spread of this virus, one of which is the PSBB. The impact of the PSBB is felt by the drastic increase in the number of unemployed in Indonesia. Using Multiple Classification Analysis (MCA), this research was conducted in order to see the condition of the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) in each province in Indonesia between before and during the pandemic, and to find out the factors that influenced it. The results show that both before and after the pandemic, provinces with an HDI below the national figure led to higher TPT. The growth rate of GDRP and UMP has a different effect between before and during the pandemic. Other results also show that before the pandemic, UMP had the greatest influence on TPT. But after the pandemic, the one that had the biggest impact was HDI.

scholarly journals Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Employment and Unemployment Rate in Nigeria: Application of Vector Autoregression(VAR) Models (1960-2014)

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Ajayi, Abdulhakeem ◽  
Rafiu Olayinka Akano ◽  
Samuel Olorunfemi Adams
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Var Models ◽  
The Impact

Unemployment is one of the major problem affecting Nigeria’s economy and its’ society, the rate of unemployment have increased over the years. This study’s aim is to investigate the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the employment and unemployment rate in Nigeria. The study useyearly data on employment and unemployment rate collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics and World Bank Indicators for the period 1960 – 2014 to achieve its objective and all analysis were done with E-view 9.5. The study employ Vector Autoregression (VAR) to model the employment and unemployment rate in Nigeria. The findings of the study suggested that FDI had a significant and positive impact on employment, FDI Granger-cause employment, employment Granger-cause FDI, unemployment Granger-cause employment and employment also Granger-cause unemployment. Also unemployment Granger-cause FDI and FDI Granger-cause unemployment.This implied that FDI has a significant role on employment rate in Nigeria and this should not be minimized. The study therefore recommended that policies should be formulated to exploit the role of FDI on employment in Nigeria, in an attempt to reduce the unemployment rate.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on the Instability and Long-Run Inequality of Workers’ Earnings in Canada

2005 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 244-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles M. Beach ◽  
Ross Finnie ◽  
David Gray
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Earnings Inequality ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Earnings Instability ◽  
Rate Effects ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the variability of workers’ earnings in Canada over the period 1982‑1997. Using a large panel of tax file data, we decompose total variation in earnings across workers and time into a long-run inequality component between workers and an average earnings instability component over time for workers. We find an increase in earnings variability between 1982‑89 and 1990‑97 that is largely confined to men and largely driven by widening long-run earnings inequality. Second, the pattern of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate effects on these variance components is not consistent with conventional explanations and is suggestive of an alternative paradigm of how economic growth over this period widens long-run earnings inequality. Third, when unemployment rate and GDP growth rate effects are considered jointly, macroeconomic improvement is found to reduce the overall variability of earnings as the reduction in earnings instability outweighs the widening of long-run earnings inequality.

scholarly journals The impact of inflation on the unemployment rate in Egypt: a VAR approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 107 ◽  
pp. 06009
Author(s):  
Emad Attia Mohamed Omran ◽  
Yuriy Bilan
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Political Effects ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Unemployment and inflation are among the most critical phenomena facing both developed and developing countries due to their harmful social, economic, and political effects. The Egyptian monetary policy’s main objective is to maintain a low inflation rate in the medium run to keep the confidence and a high rate of investment and economic growth. At the same time, economists argue that targeting a low-rate of inflation may increase unemployment. Although the classical Philips curve indicates a trade-off between inflation and unemployment, several empirical studies have argued that the relationship between inflation and unemployment depends on the shocks’ source and lagged responses. The main objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between inflation and Egypt’s unemployment rate. We used time-series data from 1980 to 2019, where a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and the Impulse response function tool (IRF) were employed. The results show that inflation has a positive relationship with GDP while negatively affecting the unemployment rate.

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