scholarly journals Revisiting the Dynamic Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inflation in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-348
Author(s):  
Farrah Yasmin ◽  
Saima Urooge ◽  
Muhammad Umair ◽  
Sher Ali
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Research Study ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Dynamic Impact ◽  
The Government

Purpose: The target of the present research study is to examine the Non-Ricardian regime and determination of inflation in an open economy taking the case of Pakistan. Design/Methodology/Approach: This research is carried out for the economy of Pakistan for the period of 1976–2019. To deal with the time series data we need to test the Stationarity of the data in advance to confirm the non-existence of the second I(2) of stationarity. For the purpose of stationarity testing this study used test Phillips Peron (PP) test. PP test results suggested the use of ARDL. Findings: The results of ARDL reported that the intervention of the government has a very important and dominant role the determination of price level (Inflation) in an open economy. Implications/Originality/Value: The study has concluded that the government should focus on fiscal measure as well with the extensive use of monetary policy in coordination with fiscal policy to keep inflation in control in Pakistan.

scholarly journals The Nexus between Export and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p95
Author(s):  
Romanus L. Dimoso (PhD, Economics) ◽  
UTONGA, Dickson (MSc. Economics)
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
Econometrics Analysis

This study explored the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. It analyzed time series data for the period of 1980 to 2015. Economic growth is measured in terms of growth per cent while exports are measured in percentage change of goods and services sold abroad. Econometrics analysis was employed in the due course. Such procedures as testing for the presence of unit root, co-integration and causality were done. Furthermore, the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests were employed to examine the long-run relationship among variables. The results of co-integration indicate the existence of one co-integrating equation. The causality test results exhibited causality which runs from economic growth to exports. The results conclude that, in the long run, there is a relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. This study recommends the Government to make efforts to improve exports and eventually, in the long-run, rejuvenating the economy.

scholarly journals Fiscal Response to Terrorism in Pakistan: The Role of Institutions

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 154-192
Author(s):  
Tahir Mukhtar ◽  
Zainab Jehan
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically estimates the fiscal consequences of terrorism in Pakistan by using annual time series data from 1984 to 2016. By employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique, the study has gauged the impact of terrorist incidents on two important facets of fiscal policy, namely, tax revenue and defense spending. The results reveal that terrorism has detrimental ramifications for fiscal policy in Pakistan. Specifically, on the one hand, an increase in terrorist incidents tends to bring a fall in tax revenue while on the other hand, they induce a rise in defense outlays, thus deteriorating both fronts of the fiscal position. Notably, the moderating role of institutional quality appears significant and indicates that institutional quality has not only a significant direct impact on fiscal policy, but it also helps in completely mitigating (reducing) the harmful impact of terrorism on defense spending (tax revenue) in Pakistan. These findings suggest that there is a need to take appropriate steps for strengthening institutional setup to control the fallouts of terrorism on fiscal behavior of the government of Pakistan. Keywords: Terrorism; Tax Revenue; Institutional Quality; ARDL JEL Classification: E62; H2; E02; H5; F35

scholarly journals EMISSION OF CARBON WARMING THE CLIMATIC CHANGE ADVERSELY AFFECTS THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 105-114
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahid ◽  
Farhat Parveen ◽  
Rana Khalid Mehmood ◽  
Qamar Uz-Zaman ◽  
Hafiz Ali Raza
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Research Study ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Advanced Technology ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Meat Production ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bound Test

Purpose: The paper explores how livestock reveals the warming climatic variations particularly in farming and poultry sub-sectors of agriculture. The rising average temperature of the region has been a challenge during the last two decades which has created many complications and health problems in animals as stress, low reproduction, its consequence as draught, adverse effects on milk and meat production. More consumption of water increases the cost of livestock products. It has altered the temperature of the sea and rivers, emerges the negative effects on the species and creatures of water. Methodology: To conduct the empirical study on this economic issue the data has been assumed from 1980 to 2014 due to constraints of statistics. Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag model to cointegration (ARDL) was applied on the time series data and the other econometric tests as Error Correction Mechanism, Cumulative sum of Recursive Residual CUSUM and CUSUM sum of Square Test, Bound Test and Diagnostic tests were operated to conclude the results of the research study. Main findings: The finding of the study is that CO2emission from electricity, gases fuel consumption, and urban population growth raised the average temperature of the region which is discouraging the livestock. Production and increasing the costs of livestock output. Application of the study: The study is the most appropriate and applicable for this subcontinent especially for Pakistan.  Originality and novelty of the study: The research study contributes to the agricultural economics literature with advanced information. It suggests the government utilize the planet Badar-1 climatic information and more advanced technology about temperature to formulate comprehensive policies to combat the climatic and environmental changes and more resources are allocated so that international standard of production of livestock can be achieved.      

Sustainability of fiscal policy in an oil-rich economy: the case of Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 380-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sustainability Of Fiscal Policy

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the sustainability of fiscal policy in Nigeria by disaggregating the economy into oil and non-oil segments. Design/methodology/approach – Owing to the enormous influence of the oil revenue, the study distinguishes between the oil and non-oil fiscal balances. In addition, it abstracted from the endogenous macroeconomic environment, therefore, fiscal policy sustainability is investigated on the basis of the responses of the government primary balance to changes in deficits and debt levels. The models are estimated with time-series data from 1970 to 2011 using the Johansen estimation techniques. Findings – The results from the estimations performed suggest that government responds more to deficit targets than debt targets. However, this differs in the non-oil segment, as the fiscal policy actions of government do not consistently respond to either deficit or debt targets. Given this, the overall economy and the oil segment have revealed a strong fiscal sustainability over the years while fiscal policy is unsustainable in the non-oil segment. Research limitations/implications – The major limitation of this study is the unavailability of data on government expenditure resulting from oil revenue. Therefore, it would be imperative to reinvestigate the specifications adopted in this study in follow-up studies. Practical implications – The study includes implications for policy makers, especially in Nigeria and other oil-producing countries, to detect the extent to which the economy should rely on the oil revenue stream as the main source of revenue to government. The proceeds from the oil endowment have not yet trickled down to the rest of the economy where real economic activity could be carried out which would eventually lead to more tax revenue for the government. Originality/value – To assess the sustainability of fiscal policy in an oil-rich economy such as Nigeria, it is imperative to detect the influence of oil funds on both government revenue streams and expenditure decisions. This study has made this distinction.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Influence of Interest Rate, Rupiah Exchange Value, Household Consumption, and Import on Inflation in Indonesia Period 2010.Q1 - 2018.Q4

2020 ◽  
pp. 81-91
Author(s):  
Jusmer Sihotang ◽  
Nancy Nopeline
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Multiple Regression Equation ◽  
Exchange Value ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to analyze the effect of the interest rest, the exchange rate of the rupiah, and imports on the inflation in Indonesia. The study used multiple regression equation by using secondary time series. Data from 2008.Q1-2018.Q4. The results showed that the interest rate of SBI, exchange rate of rupiah against US Dollar, private sector household consumption, and the total imports of Indonesia had a simultaneous impact on the inflation in Indonesia. However, partially only the interest rate of SBI and total imports of Indonesia had a significant impact on the inflation in Indonesia, respectivelyon the level ofα = 1% and α= 5%. These results mean that the increasing of interest rate of SBI and Indonesian import could impact the inflation rate in Indonesia. Based on the findings, the policy to control the inflation in Indonesia was Bank Indonesia as the holder of monetary policy needs to oversee the determination of business credit interest rate (micro, retail, and corporate), by commercial banks in order to maintain the rate on the stable and low levels. In addition, the government needs to compose the policy to reduce the dependence on imported goods by providing various facilities and incentives to increase the interest of entrepreneurs to invest in industries that produce imported substitute goods.

Transport infrastructure of the Rostov Oblast: Problems and prospects for development in the context of national projects implementation

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1015-1034
Author(s):  
O.Yu. Patrakeeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Rostov Oblast ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The paper considers national projects in the field of transport infrastructure, i.e. Safe and High-quality Roads and Comprehensive Plan for Modernization and Expansion of Trunk Infrastructure, and the specifics of their implementation in the Rostov Oblast. Objectives. The aim is to conduct a statistical assessment of the impact of transport infrastructure on the region’s economic performance and define prospects for and risks of the implementation of national infrastructure projects in conditions of a shrinking economy. Methods. I use available statistics and apply methods and approaches with time-series data, namely stationarity and cointegration tests, vector autoregression models. Results. The level of economic development has an impact on transport infrastructure in the short run. However, the mutual influence has not been statistically confirmed. The paper revealed that investments in the sphere of transport reduce risk of accidents on the roads of the Rostov Oblast. Improving the quality of roads with high traffic flow by reducing investments in the maintenance of subsidiary roads enables to decrease accident rate on the whole. Conclusions. In conditions of economy shrinking caused by the complex epidemiological situation and measures aimed at minimizing the spread of coronavirus, it is crucial to create a solid foundation for further economic recovery. At the government level, it is decided to continue implementing national projects as significant tools for recovery growth.

scholarly journals Hypothesizing directional causality between the governance indicators and economic growth: the case of Afghanistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Naim Azimi ◽  
Mohammad Musa Shafiq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Government Effectiveness ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
The Government

AbstractThis paper examines the causal relationship between governance indicators and economic growth in Afghanistan. We use a set of quarterly time series data from 2003Q1 to 2018Q4 to test our hypothesis. Following Toda and Yamamoto’s (J Econom 66(1–2):225–250, 1995. 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8) vector autoregressive model and the modified Wald test, our empirical results show a unidirectional causality between the government effectiveness, rule of law, and the economic growth. Our findings exhibit significant causal relationships running from economic growth to the eradication of corruption, the establishment of the rule of law, quality of regulatory measures, government effectiveness, and political stability. More interestingly, we support the significant multidimensional causality hypothesis among the governance indicators. Overall, our findings not only reveal causality between economic growth and governance indicators, but they also show interdependencies among the governance indicators.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass Through in a Small Open Economy: A case study of West African Monetary Zone

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-290
Author(s):  
Rahman olanrewaju Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The  study investigated the magnitude of exchange rate pass through to import prices and domestic prices    (consumer price index) in WAMZ economy using quarterly time-series data between 2000 and 2010 with the aids of Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling technique supported with Johansen co-integration approach cross country analysis comprising of Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra-Leone. The study discovered that transmission of exchange rate to import prices is more when compared with consumer price in the zone while the contributions of exchange rate to import price are not less 13 percent at average in entire zone. Consumer price index was explained by exchange rate pass through with an average of 26 percent in the zone where the pass through to consumer price is less than two percent in Ghanaian economy. The Taylor (2000) hypothesis was observed in the study where Ghana and Nigeria are the outlier economies while Nigeria established a positive relationship between interest rate volatility and exchange rate pass through to import prices.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KAUSALITAS KEBIJAKAN FISKAL EKSPANSIF, KEBIJAKAN MONETER EKSPANSIF DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Fadhliah Yuniwinsah ◽  
Ali Anis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Autoregression Model

This study examined the causality between expansionary fiscal policy, expansionary monetary policy and economic growth in Indonesia’s using a time series data with vector autoregression model (VAR) in the period of 1969-2018. The results of this study showed that are there is no causality between expansionary fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy but there one-way relationship between them, it is the expansionary monetary policy gives influence to expansionary fiscal policy. There is no causality between expansionary fiscal policy and economic growth but there one-way relationship between them, It is economic growth gives influence to expansionary fiscal policy. And there is no causality between expansionary monetary policy and economic growth but there one-way relationship between them, it is economic growth gives influence to expansionary monetary policy.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

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