scholarly journals The Impact of the Uruguay Round on World Economy

1994 ◽  
Vol 33 (4II) ◽  
pp. 1191-1203
Author(s):  
Akhtar Hasan Khan
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asian Tigers ◽  
International Trading ◽  
Modern Economic ◽  
The Impact

International trade as an engine for economic growth is an accepted proposition in modern economic literature. Statistical and econometric analysis of crosssection and time-series data of the growth in exports and growth in GOP shows a very high correlation between the two. Normally growth in exports is twice or more than the growth in GOP for most fast-growing economies particularly the East Asian Tigers. There is hardly any country which over a decade has had a growth in GOP higher than the average rate of growth of exports in that decade. Export led growth has been vindicated by one economy after another specially in East Asia. It is therefore of great importance that the international trading system allows the free flow of goods in order to promote the growth of the world economy as a whole. After the Second World War, plans were drawn up for an International Trade Organisation (ITO) at Havana but when the US Congress declined to approve it, it was dropped. The demise of the ITO, however did not do away with the need for an international organisation to deal with negotiations for reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers to international trade. Twenty-three nations agreed to continue extensive tariff negotiations for trade concessions at Geneva which were incorporated in a General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). GATT has provided a permanent platform for reducing trade barriers. The fundamental objective of GATT is to achieve free trade through reduction in tariff and non-tariff barriers on the basis of non-discrimination, reciprocity and national treatment.................

scholarly journals THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: EVIDENCE FROM GHANA

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Adubofour Isaac
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Inverse Association ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The degree of fluctuation of a country’s currency in relation to other currencies is an important factor in determining her foreign trade position. The study employed both theoretical and empirical approaches to examine Ghana’s real exchange rate and the impact on her foreign trade. A time series data, spanning from 1991 to 2019 was analyzed in an attempt to establish the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth. It is argued in the study that exchange rate has impact on a country’s export volumes. A verification on the relationship between labour force and international trade was also conducted. The study was also extended to examining the impact of a country’s access to stable electric power on export volumes. Findings of the study revealed a statistically significant and inverse association existing between exchange rate and international trade. The study also found that, wide electricity coverage has statistically significant and direct effect on foreign trade, resulting from an increased production capacity due to the availability of electric power. The study however found no suggestive evidence to support the claim that, labour force has impact on her foreign trade. A test on granger causality found no causal linkage between the variables. KEYWORDS: Exchange rate, international trade, labour force, exports.

scholarly journals Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-170
Author(s):  
Khoirul Ifa ◽  
Moh. Yahdi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth ◽  
The Impact

Economic growth and international trade are related to one another. International trade stimulates long-term economic growth. The more trade activities in a country, the more rapid economic growth; this trade is a key component of development in a country, its contribution is felt with the increasing economic growth in several countries. The purpose of this study looks at the impact of trade openness on economic growth in Indonesia in 1986-2017. This research is a quantitative study using time series data from 1986-2017, research data obtained from the world bank, data analysis techniques using the GMM method to see the impact of trade openness on economic growth. The test results using the Generalized Method of Moments analysis method show that all variables significantly influence the dynamics of economic growth in Indonesia. This result is proven by the t-statistic probability value, which shows a smaller value compared to the t-table value. Then the value also has a probability of less than α. It can be concluded that the variables of trade, FDI, inflation, and the number of workers have a significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia.

State Power and the Structure of International Trade

1976 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 317-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen D. Krasner
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
International Political Economy ◽  
National Income ◽  
State Power ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Trading System ◽  
Power Theory ◽  
State Action ◽  
International Trading

The structure of international trade, identified by the degree of openness for the movement of goods, can best be explained by a state-power theory of international political economy. This theory begins with the assumption that the nature of international economic movements is determined by states acting to maximize national goals. Four goals—aggregate national income, political power, social stability, and economic growth—can be systematically related to the degree of openness in the international trading system for states of different relative sizes and levels of development. This analysis leads to the conclusion that openness is most likely to exist when there is a hegemonic distribution of potential economic power. Time-series data on tariff levels, trade proportions, regional concentration, per capita income, national income, share of world trade, and share of world investment are then presented. The first three are used to describe the degree of openness in the trading system; the last four, the distribution of state power. The data suggest that the state-power theory should be amended to take into consideration domestic political constraints on state action.

scholarly journals What Does Vietnam Gain When Its Currency Depreciates?

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 185
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Thanh Binh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The study investigates how the depreciation of the Vietnam dong (VND) against the US dollar (USD) affected export turnover and the stock market in Vietnam during the period from 2000 to 2020. A Markov triple regime-switching model is developed for time-series data involving multistructural breaks. Empirical results reveal that the impact of exchange rates on export turnover and stock price existed both in the long and short run. In the short run, the depreciation of VND led to (i) an increase in export turnover after 12 months; (ii) a decrease in export turnover of the high-growing regime in the short term; (iii) a reduction in stock returns in most cases. In addition, the common cycle from order receipt, preparation, production, and export is about 12 months for all states. The high volatility of export turnover was associated with high export growth. The commonly used phrase of “high risk, high return” seems to not be true for Vietnam’s stock market. The results of this study suggest the feasibility of a slight appreciation of VND against USD, which is the key to escape from being labeled a currency manipulator by the US Treasury.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Transport infrastructure of the Rostov Oblast: Problems and prospects for development in the context of national projects implementation

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1015-1034
Author(s):  
O.Yu. Patrakeeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
Rostov Oblast ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The paper considers national projects in the field of transport infrastructure, i.e. Safe and High-quality Roads and Comprehensive Plan for Modernization and Expansion of Trunk Infrastructure, and the specifics of their implementation in the Rostov Oblast. Objectives. The aim is to conduct a statistical assessment of the impact of transport infrastructure on the region’s economic performance and define prospects for and risks of the implementation of national infrastructure projects in conditions of a shrinking economy. Methods. I use available statistics and apply methods and approaches with time-series data, namely stationarity and cointegration tests, vector autoregression models. Results. The level of economic development has an impact on transport infrastructure in the short run. However, the mutual influence has not been statistically confirmed. The paper revealed that investments in the sphere of transport reduce risk of accidents on the roads of the Rostov Oblast. Improving the quality of roads with high traffic flow by reducing investments in the maintenance of subsidiary roads enables to decrease accident rate on the whole. Conclusions. In conditions of economy shrinking caused by the complex epidemiological situation and measures aimed at minimizing the spread of coronavirus, it is crucial to create a solid foundation for further economic recovery. At the government level, it is decided to continue implementing national projects as significant tools for recovery growth.

A Macroeconomic Analysis of Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-25
Author(s):  
Isah Funtua Abubakar ◽  
Umar Bambale Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Value Chain ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Size Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Impact

This paper attempts to study the Nigerian agriculture industry as a panacea to growth as well as an anchor to the diversification agenda of the present government. To do this, the time series data of the four agriculture subsectors of crop production, livestock, forestry and fishery were analysed as stimulus to the Real GDP from 1981-2016 in order to explicate the individual contributions of the subsectors to the RGDP in order to guide the policy thrust on diversification. Using the Johansen approach to cointegration, all the variables were found to be cointegrated. With the exception of the forestry subsector, all the three subsectors were seen to have impacted on the real GDP at varying degrees during the time under review. The crop production subsector has the highest impact, however, taking size-by-size analysis, the livestock subsector could be of much importance due to its ability to retain its value chain and high investment returns particularly in poultry. Therefore, it is recommended that, the government should intensify efforts to retain the value chain in the crop production subsector, in order to harness its potentials optimally through the encouragement of the establishment of agriculture cottage industries. Secondly, the livestock subsector is found to be the most rapidly growing and commercialized subsector. Therefore, it should be the prime subsector to hinge the diversification agenda naturally. Lastly, the tourism industry which is a source through which the impact of the subsector is channeled to the GDP should be developed, in order to improve the impact of such channel to GDP with the sole objective to resuscitate the forestry subsector.

The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 730-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of oil price changes on output and inflation for the case of Turkey using monthly time series data for the period 1990:1–2012:3. Recent studies suggest that oil price changes may have asymmetric effects on the macroeconomic variables. To account for asymmetric effects, we decompose oil price changes into positive and negative parts following Hamilton (1996). Our results show that while oil price increases have clear negative effects on output growth, the impact of oil price decline is insignificant. Similarly, oil price increases have positive and significant effects on inflation. However, oil price declines have not a significant effect on inflation. The Granger causality tests also support these results.

Does Tax Increment Financing Pass the “But-for” Test in Missouri?

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 187-202
Author(s):  
Ahmed Rachid El-Khattabi ◽  
T. William Lester
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Kansas City ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Increment Financing ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The use of tax increment financing (TIF) remains a popular, yet highly controversial, tool among policy makers in their efforts to promote economic development. This study conducts a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of Missouri’s TIF program, specifically in Kansas City and St. Louis, in creating economic opportunities. We build a time-series data set starting 1990 through 2012 of detailed employment levels, establishment counts, and sales at the census block-group level to run a set of difference-in-differences with matching estimates for the impact of TIF at the local level. Although we analyze the impact of TIF on a wide set of indicators and across various industry sectors, we find no conclusive evidence that the TIF program in either city has a causal impact on key economic development indicators.

EFFECTS OF TREND AND PERIODICITY ON THE CORRELATION DIMENSION AND THE LYAPUNOV EXPONENTS

2008 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 3679-3687 ◽  
Author(s):  
AYDIN A. CECEN ◽  
CAHIT ERKAL
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
Lyapunov Exponents ◽  
Correlation Dimension ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Logistic Map ◽  
Model Identification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Largest Lyapunov Exponent ◽  
The Impact

We present a critical remark on the pitfalls of calculating the correlation dimension and the largest Lyapunov exponent from time series data when trend and periodicity exist. We consider a special case where a time series Zi can be expressed as the sum of two subsystems so that Zi = Xi + Yi and at least one of the subsystems is deterministic. We show that if the trend and periodicity are not properly removed, correlation dimension and Lyapunov exponent estimations yield misleading results, which can severely compromise the results of diagnostic tests and model identification. We also establish an analytic relationship between the largest Lyapunov exponents of the subsystems and that of the whole system. In addition, the impact of a periodic parameter perturbation on the Lyapunov exponent for the logistic map and the Lorenz system is discussed.

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