Large-scale modes of atmospheric variability. Part II. The impact on the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation on the territory of Northern Eurasia

Based on assessments of the meteorological services of the CIS countries, the skill scores of the consensus forecast for the territory of Northern Eurasia for the summer of 2021 are presented. The results of monitoring circulation patterns in the stratosphere and troposphere over the past summer season are discussed. Climate monitoring and seasonal forecasting results for the current situation are presented. A probabilistic consensus forecast for air temperature and precipitation is presented for the upcoming winter season 2021/2022 in Northern Eurasia. Possible consequences of the impact of the expected anomalies of meteorological parameters on the economy sectors and social life are discussed. Keywords: North Eurasian Climate Forum, North Eurasian Climate Center, consensus forecast, air temperature, precipitation, large-scale atmospheric circulation, hydrodynamic models, sea surface temperature, impacts

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Measuring urban form: Overcoming terminological inconsistencies for a quantitative and comprehensive morphologic analysis of cities

Environment and Planning B Urban Analytics and City Science ◽

10.1177/2399808320910444 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 239980832091044 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Martin Fleischmann ◽

Ombretta Romice ◽

Sergio Porta

Keyword(s):

Spatial Distribution ◽

Quantitative Analysis ◽

Urban Form ◽

Large Scale ◽

Global Scale ◽

Urban Morphology ◽

Systematic Classification ◽

Social Patterns ◽

The Impact

Unprecedented urbanisation processes characterise the Great Acceleration, urging urban researchers to make sense of data analysis in support of evidence-based and large-scale decision-making. Urban morphologists are no exception since the impact of urban form on fundamental natural and social patterns (equity, prosperity and resource consumption’s efficiency) is now fully acknowledged. However, urban morphology is still far from offering a comprehensive and reliable framework for quantitative analysis. Despite remarkable progress since its emergence in the late 1950s, the discipline still exhibits significant terminological inconsistencies with regards to the definition of the fundamental components of urban form, which prevents the establishment of objective models for measuring it. In this article, we present a study of existing methods for measuring urban form, with a focus on terminological inconsistencies, and propose a systematic and comprehensive framework to classify urban form characters, where ‘urban form character’ stands for a characteristic (or feature) of one kind of urban form that distinguishes it from another kind. In particular, we introduce the Index of Elements that allows for a univocal and non-interpretive description of urban form characters. Based on such Index of Elements, we develop a systematic classification of urban form according to six categories (dimension, shape, spatial distribution, intensity, connectivity and diversity) and three conceptual scales (small, medium, large) based on two definitions of scale (extent and grain). This framework is then applied to identify and organise the urban form characters adopted in available literature to date. The resulting classification of urban form characters reveals clear gaps in existing research, in particular, in relation to the spatial distribution and diversity characters. The proposed framework reduces the current inconsistencies of urban morphology research, paving the way to enhanced methods of urban form systematic and quantitative analysis at a global scale.

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Is Diminishing Solar Activity Detrimental to Canadian Prairie Agriculture?

Earth & Environmental Science Research & Reviews ◽

10.33140/eesrr.03.03.13 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Large Scale ◽

Time Frame ◽

Precipitation Pattern ◽

Canadian Prairie ◽

Canadian Prairies ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

Grain Yield And Quality ◽

The Impact

During the grain growing months of May-July, the mean temperature on the Canadian prairies has cooled down by 2ºC in the last 30 years. The cooling appears to be most certainly linked to diminishing solar activity as the Sun approaches a Grand Solar Minimum in the next decade or so. This cooling has led to a reduction in Growing Degree Days (GDDs) and has also impacted the precipitation pattern. The GDDs in conjunction with mean temperature and precipitation are important parameters for the growth of various grains (wheat, barley, canola etc.) on the prairies. In this study, we investigate the impact of declining GDDs and associated temperature and precipitation patterns on Prairie grain yields and quality. Our analysis shows that there has been a loss of about 100 GDDs over the time frame of 1985-2019. The loss in GDDs is also linked to some of the large-scale Atmosphere-Ocean parameters like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Index (NPI) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Our analysis suggests grain yield and quality could be significantly impacted in the coming years as solar activity continues to diminish.

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Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-012-1440-y ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 40 (7-8) ◽

pp. 1903-1920 ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

Jared H. Bowden ◽

Christopher G. Nolte ◽

Tanya L. Otte

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Large Scale Circulation ◽

Precipitation Climatology ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

The Impact

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The main features of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the context of analyzing the consensus forecast of air temperature and precipitation for the 2020 Northern Eurasia summer

Hydrometeorological research and forecasting ◽

10.37162/2618-9631-2021-1-20-35 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 20-35

Author(s):

R.M. Vilfand ◽

◽

K.A. Sumerova , ◽

V.A. Tishchenko ◽

V.M. Khan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Large Scale ◽

Precipitation Forecast ◽

Northern Eurasia ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Skill Scores ◽

Circulation Indices ◽

Arctic Ice ◽

Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

The main results of the analysis of the Northern Hemisphere large-scale atmospheric circulation features are presented for the 2020 summer. Skill scores of the consensus forecast for the 2020 Northern Eurasia summer are discussed in the context of analyzing the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The prognostic potential of the trend component in forecasting seasonal anomalies of air temperature and precipitation is noted. Keywords: air temperature, precipitation, forecast skill, trends, large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature, NEACOF, circulation indices, Arctic ice

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Gradual transition from temperature to precipitation controlled regime in Rhone River discharges

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15757 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Carla Taricco ◽

Sara Rubinetti ◽

Enrico Arnone ◽

Davide Zanchettin ◽

Angelo Rubino ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Spectral Analysis ◽

Annual Cycle ◽

Large Scale ◽

Gradual Transition ◽

Rhône River ◽

Temporal Behaviour ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Rhone River ◽

Discharge Regime ◽

The Impact

River discharge series provide large-scale hydrological information over a broad range of timescales. Despite discharge records consist of punctual measurements, they integrate variations in snowmelting, precipitation and runoff processes over the catchment till the discharge measurement site.Discharges of the Rhone River, one of the largest rivers in Europe, have been monitored accurately during the last century at different sites. Long discharge records from seven stations along the course reveal the spatial and temporal behaviour of discharges from the source of the river to its mouth.&#160; An accurate spectral analysis of the records, performed using advanced spectral analysis methods, allow us to extract significant periodic variations in the records at different temporal scales. Then, we analyse the sensitivity of such periodic variations to evolving hydroclimate conditions, in particular focusing on the relationship between discharge and temperature and precipitation.The strong annual oscillation recorded at stations close to the source is almost entirely due to snow melting on alpine glaciers, closely resembling the temperature annual cycle. This remarkable agreement allows to consider the upstream discharges as a thermometer on the glacier region during the melting season.&#160;On the contrary, the decrease of the annual cycle going towards the mouth of the river and the contemporary growth of interannual components demonstrates the transition from a temperature to a precipitation controlled discharge regime.We will finally discuss the impact of large-scale variability patterns on the detected discharge variations and associated implications for their near-term predictability.

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Arctic-Mid-Latitude Linkages in a Nonlinear Quasi-Geostrophic Atmospheric Model

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2017/2691368 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2017 ◽

pp. 1-9 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Dörthe Handorf ◽

Klaus Dethloff ◽

Sabine Erxleben ◽

Ralf Jaiser ◽

Michael V. Kurgansky

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Atmospheric Circulation ◽

Large Scale ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Northern Eurasia ◽

The Arctic Oscillation ◽

The Impact

A quasi-geostrophic three-level T63 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere has been applied to investigate the impact of Arctic amplification (increase in surface air temperatures and loss of Arctic sea ice during the last 15 years) on the mid-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation. The model demonstrates a mid-latitude response to an Arctic diabatic heating anomaly. A clear shift towards a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO−) during low sea-ice-cover conditions occurs, connected with weakening of mid-latitude westerlies over the Atlantic and colder winters over Northern Eurasia. Compared to reanalysis data, there is no clear model response with respect to the Pacific Ocean and North America.

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Winter regime of temperature and precipitation as a factor of snow-cover distribution and its stratigraphy

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/172756408787814942 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 49 ◽

pp. 179-186 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Vladimir N. Golubev ◽

Marina N. Petrushina ◽

Denis M. Frolov

Keyword(s):

Snow Cover ◽

Large Scale ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Northern Eurasia ◽

Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Geographical Regions ◽

Precipitation Regimes

AbstractThe investigation of spatial and temporal variability of the snow cover in northern Eurasia (snow depth, density, thermal characteristics, water equivalent) includes large-scale fieldwork, modelling and analysis of meteorological data of two winters (2004/05 and 2005/06) from 38 weather stations situated in different climatic conditions and physico-geographical zones. Common regularities and features of snow-cover variability are revealed for these winters, despite their contrasting temperature and precipitation regimes and differences from an average winter, as the time of appearance, duration and depth of snow cover, the number of snowfalls and date of melting. The modelling of snow-cover stratigraphy is based on viscous compression and recrystallization laws. Meteorological information (temperature, wind velocity and precipitation) is used as input for the model. The output is the specific snow-cover stratigraphy according to positioning in different physical–geographical regions and due to the possible variation as determined by winter temperature and precipitation regimes. The peculiarity of snow-cover stratigraphy at the regional scale depends on the meteorological conditions of its formation as well as on the character of landscapes. A satisfactory correlation of the modelled typical columns of the snow cover formed in 2004/05 and 2005/06 in different regions of Russia and of real columns is revealed.

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Chinese regional productivity and urbanization: a county-level study in 2007-2010

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies ◽

10.1108/jcefts-11-2014-0024 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 82-105 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Fei Jin ◽

Qi Zhang

Keyword(s):

Spatial Distribution ◽

Large Scale ◽

County Level ◽

Change Analysis ◽

Content Type ◽

Tfp Growth ◽

Visual Spatial ◽

Level Data ◽

Short Period ◽

The Impact

Purpose – This study aims to analyze the total factor productivity (TFP) performance of Chinese counties and cities over the period from 2007 to 2010. Chinese regional and urban–rural TFP performance are investigated by using county-level data, and the impact of the urbanization policy on TFP is discussed. Design/methodology/approach – The data envelopment analysis (DEA)-Malmquist technique and Kumbhakar–Sun’s semi-parametric model are used for TFP change measurement and comparison. The county-level TFP performances are summarized and studied by statistical methods. Their spatial distribution is exhibited in a geographical thematic map. Findings – The county-level analysis proves that China underwent a large-scale TFP decline over the period from 2007 to 2010. Statistically speaking, cities’ TFP growth is more positive than counties’; however, different provinces also have their regional characteristics. In addition, the Chinese Hukou (household registration) institution divides Chinese urbanization into halves, which have the opposite correlation on TFP growth. Research limitations/implications – Because the collection of county-level data is enormous and costly, this study only focuses on a very short period (2007-2010) with estimated data. This TFP change analysis is limited to the short-term phenomenon around the 2008 international financial crisis. Practical implications – This study provides a visual spatial distribution for county-level TFP change in China over the period 2007-2010. Results of the analysis demonstrate that the Chinese Hukou system is among the policy factors that can influence productivity in the course of urbanization. Originality/value – The achievement of the first nationwide county-level TFP change study for economic growth in China is innovative. This study provides a unique perspective for understanding productivity performance at the regional level over the period investigated, which provides invaluable data for investigating the impact of urbanization and the rural–urban gap on TFP growth.

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Uncovering urban mobility patterns and impact of spatial distribution of places on movements

International Journal of Modern Physics C ◽

10.1142/s0129183117500048 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 28 (01) ◽

pp. 1750004 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Wang Chen ◽

Qiang Gao ◽

Hua-Gang Xiong

Keyword(s):

Spatial Distribution ◽

Power Law ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Large Scale ◽

Length Distribution ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Urban Mobility ◽

Mobility Patterns ◽

Power Law Decay ◽

The Impact

As an important component in varieties of practical applications, understanding human urban mobility patterns draws intensive attention from researchers. In this paper, we investigate the urban mobility patterns and the impact of spatial distribution of places on the patterns using the data from a popular location-based social network Whrrl which are unrestricted to transportation modes. A movement region is demarcated for each city, which better depicts the concentrated active area of residents in the city than the administrative region. We show that the trip lengths in urban areas follow the exponential law unlike the power law in large scale of space. We find that the cities with larger sizes of place distribution area generally have smaller exponents of trip length distribution, larger means and deviations of trip lengths, while there are no apparent relationships between place densities and trip lengths. To examine the findings, we construct series of synthetic cities based on the power-law decay of place density and simulate urban human movement by the rank-based model. The simulations validate our findings and imply that the exponential distribution of urban trips is a combined result of power-law decay of place density and rank-based mobility preference.

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