scholarly journals Is Diminishing Solar Activity Detrimental to Canadian Prairie Agriculture?

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Canadian Prairie ◽  
Canadian Prairies ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Grain Yield And Quality ◽  
The Impact

During the grain growing months of May-July, the mean temperature on the Canadian prairies has cooled down by 2ºC in the last 30 years. The cooling appears to be most certainly linked to diminishing solar activity as the Sun approaches a Grand Solar Minimum in the next decade or so. This cooling has led to a reduction in Growing Degree Days (GDDs) and has also impacted the precipitation pattern. The GDDs in conjunction with mean temperature and precipitation are important parameters for the growth of various grains (wheat, barley, canola etc.) on the prairies. In this study, we investigate the impact of declining GDDs and associated temperature and precipitation patterns on Prairie grain yields and quality. Our analysis shows that there has been a loss of about 100 GDDs over the time frame of 1985-2019. The loss in GDDs is also linked to some of the large-scale Atmosphere-Ocean parameters like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Index (NPI) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Our analysis suggests grain yield and quality could be significantly impacted in the coming years as solar activity continues to diminish.

scholarly journals Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 863-881 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. P. van Ulden ◽  
G. J. van Oldenborgh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Geostrophic Flow ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Circulation Changes

Abstract. The quality of global sea level pressure patterns has been assessed for simulations by 23 coupled climate models. Most models showed high pattern correlations. With respect to the explained spatial variance, many models showed serious large-scale deficiencies, especially at mid-latitudes. Five models performed well at all latitudes and for each month of the year. Three models had a reasonable skill. We selected the five models with the best pressure patterns for a more detailed assessment of their simulations of the climate in Central Europe. We analysed observations and simulations of monthly mean geostrophic flow indices and of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. We used three geostrophic flow indices: the west component and south component of the geostrophic wind at the surface and the geostrophic vorticity. We found that circulation biases were important, and affected precipitation in particular. Apart from these circulation biases, the models showed other biases in temperature and precipitation, which were for some models larger than the circulation induced biases. For the 21st century the five models simulated quite different changes in circulation, precipitation and temperature. Precipitation changes appear to be primarily caused by circulation changes. Since the models show widely different circulation changes, especially in late summer, precipitation changes vary widely between the models as well. Some models simulate severe drying in late summer, while one model simulates significant precipitation increases in late summer. With respect to the mean temperature the circulation changes were important, but not dominant. However, changes in the distribution of monthly mean temperatures, do show large indirect influences of circulation changes. Especially in late summer, two models simulate very strong warming of warm months, which can be attributed to severe summer drying in the simulations by these models. The models differ also significantly in the simulated warming of cold winter months. Finally, the models simulate rather different changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperature, which is likely to impact on changes in temperature and precipitation. These results imply that several important aspects of climate change in Central Europe are highly uncertain. Other aspects of the simulated climate change appear to be more robust. All models simulate significant warming all year round and an increase in precipitation in the winter half-year.

scholarly journals The Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Model: Optimization and Evaluation of Simulated Radiative Fluxes and Precipitation

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (5) ◽  
pp. 1923-1939 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Medvigy ◽  
Robert L. Walko ◽  
Martin J. Otte ◽  
Roni Avissar
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Likelihood Function ◽  
Droplet Diameter ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Diameter Distribution ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
Radiative Fluxes ◽  
Atmosphere Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This work continues the presentation and evaluation of the Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Model (OLAM), focusing on the model’s ability to represent radiation and precipitation. OLAM is a new, state-of-the-art earth system model, capable of user-specified grid resolution and local mesh refinement. An objective optimization of the microphysics parameterization is carried out. Data products from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are used to construct a maximum likelihood function, and thousands of simulations using different values for key parameters are carried out. Shortwave fluxes are found to be highly sensitive to both the density of cloud droplets and the assumed shape of the cloud droplet diameter distribution function. Because there is considerable uncertainty in which values for these parameters to use in climate models, they are targeted as the tunable parameters of the objective optimization procedure, which identified high-likelihood volumes of parameter space as well as parameter uncertainties and covariances. Once optimized, the model closely matches observed large-scale radiative fluxes and precipitation. The impact of model resolution is also tested. At finer characteristic length scales (CLS), smaller-scale features such as the ITCZ are better resolved. It is also found that the Amazon was much better simulated at 100- than 200-km CLS. Furthermore, a simulation using OLAM’s variable resolution functionality to cover South America with 100-km CLS and the rest of the world with 200-km CLS generates a precipitation pattern in the Amazon similar to the global 100-km CLS run.

Twenty-five years of changes in soil cover on Canadian Chernozemic (Mollisol) soils, and the impact on the risk of soil degradation

2012 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 471-479 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Huffman ◽  
D. R. Coote ◽  
M. Green
Keyword(s):  
Cover Crops ◽  
Soil Degradation ◽  
Soil Cover ◽  
Agricultural Soils ◽  
Conservation Tillage ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Continuous Cropping ◽  
Canadian Prairie ◽  
Canadian Prairies ◽  
The Impact

Huffman, T., Coote, D. R. and Green, M. 2012. Twenty-five years of changes in soil cover on Canadian Chernozemic (Mollisol) soils, and the impact on the risk of soil degradation. Can. J. Soil Sci. 92: 471–479. Agricultural soils that are covered by vegetation or crop residue are less susceptible to degradation by wind and water erosion, organic matter depletion, structural degradation and declining fertility. In general, perennial crops, higher yields, reduced tillage and continuous cropping provide more soil cover than annual crops, lower yields, intensive tillage, residue harvesting and fallowing. This study presents a model for estimating the number of days in a year that the soil surface is protected and demonstrates its application on the Canadian prairies over the period from 1981 to 2006. Over the 25-yr study period, the average soil cover on Canadian prairie soils increased by 4.8% overall. The improvement came primarily as a result of widespread adoption of no-till and a decline in the use of summerfallow, but the gains were offset to a great deal by a shift from higher-cover crops such as wheat, oats and barley to more profitable but lower-cover crops such as canola, soybeans and potatoes. The implication of these trends is that, even though protection of prairie agricultural soils has improved over the past 25 yr, soil cover could decline dramatically over the next several decades if crop changes continue, the adoption of conservation tillage reaches a peak and residue harvesting for biofuels becomes more common.

Overshooting warming targets – temperature reversibility and implications for impacts, adaptation needs and near-term mitigation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner ◽  
Quentin Lejeune ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Thomas Gasser ◽  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Removal Technologies ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Limiting global mean temperature increase to politically agreed temperature limits such as the 1.5°C threshold in the Paris Agreement becomes increasingly challenging. This has given rise to a class of overshoot emissions pathways in the mitigation literature that limit warming to such thresholds only after allowing for a temporary overshoot. However, substantial biogeophysical uncertainties remain regarding the large-scale deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal technologies required to potentially reverse global warming. Additionally, beyond global mean temperature very little is known about the benefits of declining temperatures on impacts and adaptation needs. Here we will provide an overview of the current state of understanding regarding the reversibility of global warming, as well as impacts and adaptation needs under overshoot pathways.</p><p>We highlight the characteristics of the overshoot scenarios from the literature, and especially those that are compatible with identified sustainability limits for Carbon Dioxide Removal deployment. We will compare those characteristics with uncertainties arising from the Earth System’s response which may complicate the efforts to achieve a decrease in Global Mean Temperature after peak warming is reached. This part will include latest results of the permafrost carbon feedback under stylized overshoot scenarios. Eventually, we will summarise the state-of-the-art knowledge and present new results regarding the impacts of overshoot scenarios for non-linear and time-lagged responses such as sea-level rise, permafrost and glaciers. This will allow for a preliminary assessment of the impact and adaptation benefits of early mitigation compatible with a no or low overshoot pathways.</p>

Overview of current and expected seasonal climatic anomalies for the winter 2021/2022 with their possible impact on the economy, as estimated by the meteorological services of the CIS countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 163-176
Author(s):  
V.M. Khan ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Cis Countries ◽  
Temperature Impacts ◽  
The Impact

Based on assessments of the meteorological services of the CIS countries, the skill scores of the consensus forecast for the territory of Northern Eurasia for the summer of 2021 are presented. The results of monitoring circulation patterns in the stratosphere and troposphere over the past summer season are discussed. Climate monitoring and seasonal forecasting results for the current situation are presented. A probabilistic consensus forecast for air temperature and precipitation is presented for the upcoming winter season 2021/2022 in Northern Eurasia. Possible consequences of the impact of the expected anomalies of meteorological parameters on the economy sectors and social life are discussed. Keywords: North Eurasian Climate Forum, North Eurasian Climate Center, consensus forecast, air temperature, precipitation, large-scale atmospheric circulation, hydrodynamic models, sea surface temperature, impacts

Refugio Incident SCAT Operations for Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties Case Study

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (1) ◽  
pp. 2017048
Author(s):  
Jennifer Gold ◽  
Mia Roberts ◽  
Michael Connell ◽  
Melissa Boggs ◽  
Keith Posekian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Environmental Benefit ◽  
Santa Barbara ◽  
Systematic Assessment ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Natural Oil ◽  
Unified Command ◽  
The Impact

The Refugio Incident occurred May 19, 2015 along the Gaviota coastline in Santa Barbara County, California. The spill impacted many miles of shoreline and a variety of habitat types. Habitats impacted included exposed wave-cut platforms, man-made structures, cobble, fine-grained sand and boulder beaches. Because of the large scale response, Shoreline Clean-up Assessment Technique (SCAT) surveys were utilized to provide a more systematic assessment of impacted shorelines following a standardized approach. SCAT packets were created to document the progression of clean-up and to direct the Operations Section on where, what, and how to clean the shoreline. One difficulty with this response was that the spill occurred along a dynamic shoreline that constantly changed; and the response was in an area with known significant natural oil seepage. Photographic monitoring points were established throughout the impact area which showed dramatic changes along the coastline throughout the response. A few months into the response, sand and kelp accumulated along the shoreline covering up the incident oil making it difficult to complete the clean-up. SCAT maps were created to make sure that impacted areas that had been previously documented as needing to be cleaned were eventually addressed once the sand eroded from these areas. There was about a two month long time frame where the beach appeared to be clean because of the natural buildup of sand and kelp that covered some of the contamination. The SCAT maps helped to direct the Operations Section by visually identifying specific areas within each segment that still needed cleaning. During a large scale oil spill response when many miles of coastline are impacted in a dynamic environment, it is important to document in a systematic way all field observations so all areas impacted are eventually addressed. This provides the response and the Unified Command with direction and guidance to remediate the spill while taking into account a Net Environmental Benefit Analysis to ensure the established clean-up endpoints are met.

Gradual transition from temperature to precipitation controlled regime in Rhone River discharges

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla Taricco ◽  
Sara Rubinetti ◽  
Enrico Arnone ◽  
Davide Zanchettin ◽  
Angelo Rubino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Gradual Transition ◽  
Rhône River ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Rhone River ◽  
Discharge Regime ◽  
The Impact

<p>River discharge series provide large-scale hydrological information over a broad range of timescales. Despite discharge records consist of punctual measurements, they integrate variations in snowmelting, precipitation and runoff processes over the catchment till the discharge measurement site.</p><p>Discharges of the Rhone River, one of the largest rivers in Europe, have been monitored accurately during the last century at different sites. Long discharge records from seven stations along the course reveal the spatial and temporal behaviour of discharges from the source of the river to its mouth.  An accurate spectral analysis of the records, performed using advanced spectral analysis methods, allow us to extract significant periodic variations in the records at different temporal scales. Then, we analyse the sensitivity of such periodic variations to evolving hydroclimate conditions, in particular focusing on the relationship between discharge and temperature and precipitation.</p><p>The strong annual oscillation recorded at stations close to the source is almost entirely due to snow melting on alpine glaciers, closely resembling the temperature annual cycle. This remarkable agreement allows to consider the upstream discharges as a thermometer on the glacier region during the melting season. On the contrary, the decrease of the annual cycle going towards the mouth of the river and the contemporary growth of interannual components demonstrates the transition from a temperature to a precipitation controlled discharge regime.</p><p>We will finally discuss the impact of large-scale variability patterns on the detected discharge variations and associated implications for their near-term predictability.</p>

scholarly journals Influence of orbital forcing and solar activity on water isotopes in precipitation during the mid- and late Holocene

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Dietrich ◽  
M. Werner ◽  
T. Spangehl ◽  
G. Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Oxygen Isotopic Composition ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Orbital Forcing ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In this study we investigate the impact of mid- and late Holocene orbital forcing and solar activity on variations of the oxygen isotopic composition in precipitation. The investigation is motivated by a recently published speleothem δ18O record from the well-monitored Bunker Cave in Germany. The record reveals some high variability on multi-centennial to millennial scales that does not linearly correspond to orbital forcing. Our model study is based on a set of novel climate simulations performed with the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso enhanced by explicit water isotope diagnostics. From the performed model experiments, we derive the following major results: (1) the response of both orbital and solar forcing lead to changes in surface temperatures and δ18O in precipitation with similar magnitudes during the mid- and late Holocene. (2) Past δ18O anomalies correspond to changing temperatures in the orbital driven simulations. This does not hold true if an additional solar forcing is added. (3) Two orbital driven mid-Holocene experiments, simulating the mean climate state approximately 5000 and 6000 yr ago, yield very similar results. However, if an identical additional solar activity-induced forcing is added, the simulated changes of surface temperatures as well as δ18O between both periods differ. We conclude from our simulation results that non-linear effects and feedbacks of the orbital and solar activity forcing substantially alter the δ18O in precipitation pattern and its relation to temperature change.

scholarly journals Optimal Charging Schedule Coordination of Electric Vehicles in Smart Grid

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wan Iqmal Faezy Wan Zalnidzam ◽  
Hasmaini Mohamad ◽  
Nur Ashida Salim ◽  
Hazlie Mokhlis ◽  
Zuhaila Mat Yasin
Keyword(s):  
Distribution System ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Schedule Algorithm ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Active Power ◽  
Voltage Profile ◽  
Power Losses ◽  
Schedule Coordination ◽  
Active Power Losses ◽  
The Impact

The increasing penetration of electric vehicle (EV) at distribution system is expected in the near future leading to rising demand for power consumption. Large scale uncoordinated charging demand of EVs will eventually threatens the safety operation of the distribution network. Therefore, a charging strategy is needed to reduce the impact of charging. This paper proposes an optimal centralized charging schedule coordination of EV to minimize active power losses while maintaining the voltage profile at the demand side. The performance of the schedule algorithm developed using particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique is evaluated at the IEEE-33 Bus radial distribution system in a set time frame of charging period. Coordinated and uncoordinated charging schedule is then compared in terms of active power losses and voltage profile at different level of EV penetration considering 24 hours of load demand profile. Results show that the proposed coordinated charging schedule is able to achieve minimum total active power losses compared to the uncoordinated charging.

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