scholarly journals What impacts have the overzealous universal vaccination drive against Covid-19? Is there a need to stop covid-19 vaccination in the light of latest available evidence and scientific facts?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piyush Kumar

The first principle of medicine is Do No Harm. This is often considered a main component of the Hippocratic Oath, which of course are recited at most medical school graduations. Well, sort of. An actual translation of what is written in the Oath would be more like: “I will follow that system of regimen which, according to my ability and judgment, I consider for the benefit of my patients, and abstain from whatever is deleterious and mischievous.”In our submission we want to point out that by ignoring the Medical Knowledge established for last 100 years, and biased by western data and practice, the vaccination drive started in India is doing more harm than any good for the people of India.We present before you the scientific facts about SARS COV2 related immunity and vaccination.1.There is enough and robust evidence available now that those who have recovered from Covid 19 develop robust and long-lasting immunity against SARS CoV2, even after mild or asymptomatic infections, and those chances of reinfection among these people, even from the emerging variants of the same virus, are extremely rare or non-existent. The WHO in its interim guidance released on July 2, 2021 has also recognized the fact of acquired immunity in all those who have had previous infection with SARS-CoV-2. [1-11]2.There is no evidence to show that those who have recovered from the infection will get any additional benefit from vaccination. There is an elegant study from the Cleveland Health System which has conclusively reported that those infected do not get reinfected, whether vaccinated or not. [12-15]3.The epidemiology of Covid 19 in India is very different from other countries of the world and even within India; there are differences between urban and rural communities and between socioeconomic strata. Therefore, we need to have our own policies regarding prevention of covid19 here, including the policy on vaccination. According to available reports, the percentage of population infected in the US, UK, and such other countries is at 1-23%. In India, recent sero-surveys at Delhi and Mumbai have reported a positivity of 50-70%, indicating that a significant proportion of our people have already been infected, reaching the levels of herd immunity, and will not need the vaccine. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/kids-adults-have-similar-antibodies-sero-survey-101623953000262.htmlAnd many reports of India achieving herd immunity have already appeared. The mathematical models have explained how what percentage of population is required to be infected is also different for different population and with mixing rates fitted to social activity; the disease-induced herd immunity level can be ~43%. [19-22]4.Case Fatality Rate is the rate that is usually reported by the government, which is the number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases as detected by antigen or rt-PCR test. But as renowned Epidemiologist Dr John Ioannidis, whose paper (Attached along with) on WHO site (https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf) shows proper way of counting death rate in diseases with CFR less than 5 is Infection Mortality Rate. That is from serosurveys the actual prevalence of the infection in community is found and death rate counted from that is Infection Fatality Rate. The IFR is less than 0.1% world over and is shown to be so in India from various serosurveys done by ICMR.5.Covid19 is now proven to be asymptomatic or mild disease with infection fatality rate of 0.001-0.01% or lower, and particularly in the population younger than 30 years, it is mostly asymptomatic and harmless. [23-26] Therefore, considering the fact of high level of infections in India, near herd immunity, and very low levels of Infection Fatality Rates, vaccinating the entire population will not serve any purpose. Looking at the negligible risk to the children from Covid-19, trial of the vaccines for them or even consideration approval is highly unethical.6. A very important development that has taken place because of 4 latest studies that proves that almost 99.9% population has the memory from previous corona infection and that whether to the actual corona infection or to vaccine it is our same immune memory gets activated and vaccines in fact are more harmful in an already immune population. Based on that Doctors for Covid Ethics have written letter to tens of thousands of doctors in Europe. “Four recent scientific discoveries are herewith brought to your urgent attention. They alter the entire landscape of the COVID-19 pandemic, and they force us to reassess the merits of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2.Keywords- India, Immunity, Infection, Covid-19, herd immunity, serosurveys, natural immunity,

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (02) ◽  
pp. 204-208
Author(s):  
Ayman Ahmed ◽  
Nouh Saad Mohamed ◽  
Sarah Misbah EL-Sadig ◽  
Lamis Ahmed Fahal ◽  
Ziad Bakri Abelrahim ◽  
...  

The steadily growing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging health systems worldwide including Sudan. In Sudan, the first COVID-19 case was reported on 13th March 2020, and up to 11 November 2020 there were 14,401 confirmed cases of which 9,535 cases recovered and the rest 3,750 cases were under treatment. Additionally, 1,116 deaths were reported, indicating a relatively high case fatality rate of 7.7%. Several preventive and control measures were implemented by the government of Sudan and health partners, including the partial lockdown of the country, promoting social distancing, and suspending mass gathering such as festivals and performing religious practices in groups. However, new cases still emerging every day and this could be attributed to the noncompliance of the individuals to the advocated preventive measurements.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 5228
Author(s):  
Julio Emilio Marco-Franco ◽  
Natividad Guadalajara-Olmeda ◽  
Silvia González-de Julián ◽  
David Vivas-Consuelo

Using a mathematical model for COVID-19 incorporating data on excess of mortality compared to the corresponding period of the previous year obtained from the daily monitoring of mortality in Spain (MoMo), the prediction of total number of casualties in Spain for the first outbreak has been computed. From this figure, and following a stepwise meta-analysis of available reports, the case fatality rate (CFR) and the infectious case fatality rate (IFR) for the outbreak have been estimated. As the impact of age on these rates is notable, it is proposed to include an age-related adjusted fatality ratio in future comparative analyses between studies, calculated by adjusting the results by risk ratio to a reference age band (e.g., 60–69). From the casualty figures, and the corresponding CFR and IFR ratios, the forecast of serologically positive cases in the general Spanish population has been estimated at approximately 1% (0.87–1.3%) of the samples. If the data are confirmed by the ongoing study of the Carlos III Institute, until a vaccine is found, the immunity acquired in the general population after the infectious outbreak is far from the 65–70% herd immunity required as a barrier for COVID-19.


Author(s):  
Farid Rahimi ◽  
Amin Talebi Bezmin Abadi

Herd immunity happens when a relatively large proportion of a population becomes infected by an agent, subsequently recovers, and attains immunity against the same agent. That proportion thus indirectly protects the naïve population by preventing the spread of the infection. Herd immunity has been suggested to interrupt and control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, relying on establishing herd immunity can be catastrophic considering the virulence and lethality of SARS-CoV-2. Meanwhile our understanding of the pathogenesis, case-fatality rate, transmission routes, and antiviral therapy for COVID-19 remains limited now. Interrupting or slowing the COVID-19 transmission seems more opportune than vaccination, antiviral therapy, or herd immunity, all of which will take some time to yield. Thus, social distancing, face-masking, and hygiene are the most appropriate immediate countermeasures. Because the social fabrics, economic implications, and local demands of various nations are unique, early relaxation of restrictions may seem hasty particularly when fatality rates are high, or when the healthcare systems could be inadequate or become inundated. Conclusively, avoiding any overwhelmingly risky approach in fighting the pandemic is prudent.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enamul Hoque ◽  
Md. Shariful Islam ◽  
Susanta Kumar Das ◽  
Dipak Kumar Mitra ◽  
Mohammad Ruhul Amin

Abstract Background Amid growing debate between scientists and policymakers on the trade-off between public safety and reviving economy during the COVID-19 pandemic, the government of Bangladesh decided to relax the countrywide lockdown restrictions from the beginning of June 2020. Instead, the Ministry of Public Affairs officials have declared some parts of the capital city and a few other districts as red zones or high-risk areas based on the number of people infected in the late June 2020. Nonetheless, the COVID-19 infection rate had been increasing in almost every other part of the country. Ironically, rather than ensuring rapid tests and isolation of COVID-19 patients, from the beginning of July 2020, the Directorate General of Health Services restrained the maximum number of tests per laboratory. Thus, the health experts have raised the question of whether the government is heading toward achieving herd immunity instead of containing the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods We propose an age-group clustering method to estimate the susceptible population and use the adjusted SIRD model with Unscented Kalman Filter to analyze the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission rate in Bangladesh.Results Our analysis on the susceptible population distribution suggests that the key propagation agent is the young adult due to their socio-economic activities. We demonstrate that the herd immunity threshold can be reduced to 31% than that of 60% by considering age group cluster analysis resulting maximum 53.0 million susceptible populations in the lower middle income country. However, the case fatality rate (CFR) analysis shows that the most vulnerable people belong to the older population (> 60 years) in Bangladesh following the global trend. With the data of Covid-19 cases till July 22,2020, the time-varying reproduction numbers are used to explain the nature of the pandemic.Conclusions Based on the estimations of active, severe, and critical cases, we discuss a set of policy recommendations to improve the current pandemic control methods in Bangladesh. Moreover, we suggest a fair trade-off between health versus the economy in order to avoid enormous death toll and to keep Bangladesh’s economy alive.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karla Flores Sacoto ◽  
Galo Sánchez Del Hierro ◽  
Xavier Jarrín Estupiñan ◽  
Felipe Moreno-Piedrahita Hernandez

Abstract Background COVID-19 has caused deaths worldwide affecting the most vulnerable population with different case fatality rates. Socioeconomic conditions have demonstrated a role regarding the spread of infections and mortality. Socioeconomic characteristics of Ecuador related to poverty, ethnicity and demographic characteristics increase the impact of COVID-19 in certain populations. Methods Objective To analyze the influence of demographic factors on the COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) in Ecuador. Design: cross sectional study. Setting 24 provinces in Ecuador-221 cantons. Population: data including 233.277 confirmed COVID-19 cases of Ecuador. Primary and secondary outcome measures COVID-19 CFR and crude cause-specific death rate weight calculated using province-country level data from health ministry of Ecuador in data website. Results Ecuadors CFR is 4,03%, analyzed by cantons the CFR increases to a median of 5,75%, with cantons like Playas with a CFR of 32,39%. The morbidity rate has a median of 795,31 per 100 000 hab. with the highest rate in Isabela-Galápagos (10185,49), Aguarico-Orellana (9506,75) and Baños-Tungurahua (4156,85). And the crude COVID-19 death rate has a median of 39,73 per 100 000 hab. with the highest rate in Penipe-Chimborazo (201,29), 24 de Mayo-Manabí (143,79) and San Pedro de Huaca-Carchi (134,36). The correlations show relations with sociodemographic factors like poverty, ethnicity and scholarity. Conclusion The CFR is the proxy indicator of COVID-19 impact in Ecuador and the analysis made by location give us new information about the specific impact of this disease.


Author(s):  
Siuli Mukhopadhyay ◽  
Debraj Chakraborty

Background and ObjectivesWhile the number of detected COVID-19 infections are widely available, an understanding of the extent of undetected COVID-19 cases is urgently needed for an effective tackling of the pandemic and as a guide to lifting the lockdown. The aim of this work is to estimate and predict the true number of COVID-19 (detected and undetected) infections in India for short to medium forecast horizons. In particular, using publicly available COVID-19 infection data up to 28th April 2020, we forecast the true number of infections in India till the end of lockdown (3rd May) and five days beyond (8th May).MethodsThe high death rate observed in most COVID-19 hit countries is suspected to be a function of the undetected infections existing in the population. An estimate of the age weighted infection fatality rate (IFR) of the disease of 0.41%, specifically calculated by taking into account the age structure of Indian population, is already available in the literature. In addition, the recorded case fatality rate (CFR= 1%) of Kerala, the first state in India to successfully flatten the curve by consistently reporting single digit new infections from 12-20 April, is used as a second estimate of the IFR. These estimates are used to formulate a relationship between deaths recorded and the true number of infections and recoveries. The estimated undetected and detected cases time series based on these two IFR estimates are then used to fit a discrete time multivariate infection model to predict the total infections at the end of the formal lockdown period.ResultsOver three consecutive fortnight periods during the lockdown, it was noted that the rise in detected infections has decreased by 8.2 times. For an IFR of 0.41%, the rise in undetected infections decreased 2.5 times, while for the higher IFR value of 1%, undetected cases decreased by 2.4 times. The predicted number of total infections in India on 3rd May for both IFRs varied from 2.8 - 6.8 lakhs.Interpretation and ConclusionsThe behaviour of the undetected cases over time effectively illustrates the effects of lockdown and increased testing. From our estimates, it is found that the lockdown has brought down the undetected to detected cases ratio, and has consequently dampened the increase in the number of total cases. However, even though the rate of rise in total infections has fallen, the lifting of the lockdown should be done keeping in mind that 2.3 to 6.4 lakhs undetected cases will already exist in the population by 3rd May.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 713
Author(s):  
Evi Diliana Rospia ◽  
Dwi Kartika Cahyaningtyas ◽  
Desi Rofita ◽  
Cahaya Indah Lestari ◽  
Ni Wayan Ari Adi Putri ◽  
...  

ABSTRAKNovel coronavirus 2019 atau virus corona sindrom pernafasan akut parah yang disebut COVID-19. Gejala klinis utama yang muncul yaitu demam, batuk dan kesulitan bernapas. World Health Organization (WHO) melaporkan 11.84.226 kasus konfirmasi dengan 545.481 kematian di seluruh dunia (Case Fatality Rate/CFR 4,6%). Di Indonesia kasus meningkat dan menyebar dengan cepat, kasus pertama pada tanggal 2 Maret 2020, pada tanggal 9 Juli 2020 Kementerian Kesehatan melaporkan 70.736 kasus konfirmasi COVID-19 dengan 3.417 kasus meninggal (CFR 4,8%). Kegiatan vaksinasi masal ini bertujuan terbentuknya herd immunity (kekebalan kelompok) dan berkurangnya angka kematian akibat COVID-19 pada masyarakat. Kegiatan vaksinasi masal dilaksanakan di Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram Kota Mataram Nusa Tenggara Barat, dan jenis vaksin yang digunakan pada kegiatan vaksinasi masal ini adalah Sinovac. Jumlah responden yang mengikuti kegiatan ini sebanyak 1.000 orang. Hasil pengabdian didapatkan jumlah yang melakukan vaksinasi sebanyak 1000 orang yang terdiri dari masyarakat umum dan karyawan Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram. Kata kunci: vaksinasi; covid-19; komunitas; indonesia. ABSTRACTNovel coronavirus 2019 or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus called COVID-19. The main symptoms that appear are fever, cough and difficulty breathing. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports 11,84,226 confirmed cases with 545,481 deaths worldwide (Case Fatality Rate/CFR 4.6%) In Indonesia cases are increasing and spreading rapidly, the first case on March 2, 2020, on July 9 2020 The Ministry of Health reported 70,736 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 3,417 deaths (CFR 4.8%). This mass vaccination activity aims to form herd immunity and reduce the death rate due to COVID-19 in the community. The mass vaccination activity was carried out at the Muhammadiyah University of Mataram, and the type of vaccine used in this mass vaccination activity was Sinovac. The number of respondents who participated in this activity was 1,000 people. The results of the service found that the number of people who vaccinated was 1000 people consisting of the general public and employees of the Muhammadiyah University of Mataram. Keywords: vaccination; covid-19; community; indonesia. 


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Octavio Bramajo ◽  
Mauro Infantino ◽  
Rafael Unda ◽  
Walter D Cardona-Maya ◽  
Pablo Richly

AbstractThe search for accurate indicators to compare the pandemic impact between countries is still a challenge. The crude death rate, case fatality rate by country and sex, standardized fatality rate, and standardized death rate were calculated using data from Argentina and Colombia countries. We show that even when frequently used indicator as deaths per million are quite similar, 512 deaths per million in Argentina and 522 deaths per million in Colombia, a significant heterogeneity can be found when the mortality data is decomposed by sex or age.


BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. e043560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Cao ◽  
Ayako Hiyoshi ◽  
Scott Montgomery

ObjectiveTo investigate the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the COVID-19 case-fatality rate (CFR) globally.DesignPublicly available register-based ecological study.SettingTwo hundred and nine countries/territories in the world.ParticipantsAggregated data including 10 445 656 confirmed COVID-19 cases.Primary and secondary outcome measuresCOVID-19 CFR and crude cause-specific death rate were calculated using country-level data from the Our World in Data website.ResultsThe average of country/territory-specific COVID-19 CFR is about 2%–3% worldwide and higher than previously reported at 0.7%–1.3%. A doubling in size of a population is associated with a 0.48% (95% CI 0.25% to 0.70%) increase in COVID-19 CFR, and a doubling in the proportion of female smokers is associated with a 0.55% (95% CI 0.09% to 1.02%) increase in COVID-19 CFR. The open testing policies are associated with a 2.23% (95% CI 0.21% to 4.25%) decrease in CFR. The strictness of anti-COVID-19 measures was not statistically significantly associated with CFR overall, but the higher Stringency Index was associated with higher CFR in higher-income countries with active testing policies (regression coefficient beta=0.14, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.27). Inverse associations were found between cardiovascular disease death rate and diabetes prevalence and CFR.ConclusionThe association between population size and COVID-19 CFR may imply the healthcare strain and lower treatment efficiency in countries with large populations. The observed association between smoking in women and COVID-19 CFR might be due to the finding that the proportion of female smokers reflected broadly the income level of a country. When testing is warranted and healthcare resources are sufficient, strict quarantine and/or lockdown measures might result in excess deaths in underprivileged populations. Spatial dependence and temporal trends in the data should be taken into account in global joint strategy and/or policy making against the COVID-19 pandemic.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tsair-Wei Chien ◽  
Wei-Chih Kan ◽  
Yu-Tsen Yeh ◽  
Shu-Chun Kuo

BACKGROUND When a new disease starts to spread, one of the commonly asked questions is (1) how deadly it is. World Health Organization (WHO) announced in a press conference on January 29th, 2020 and reported the death rate of COVID-19 was 2% on the case fatality rate(CFR). Whether the claim was underestimated is worthy of clarifications when considering the lag days from symptom onset to death. OBJECTIVE We developed an app for online displaying three types of computations of CFR and verifying the death rate of 2% substantially underestimated. METHODS We downloaded COVID-19 outbreak numbers from January 21 to February 25, 2020, in countries/regions on a daily basis from Github that contains daily information on confirmed cases, deaths, and the recovered in more than 30 Chinese locations and other worldwide countries/regions. Three CFRs on COVID-19 were compared, including (A) deaths/confirmed;(B) deaths/(deaths+recovered); and (C) deaths/(cases x days ago). The coefficients of variance (CV=the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean) were applied to measure the relative variability for each CFR. A dashboard was developed for daily display of the CFR on COVID-19 for each region. RESULTS We observed that the CVs were 0.07, 9.23, and 5.08 and the CFRs were 3.37%, 8.85%, and 3.58% for these three CFR computations, respectively, on Feb. 25, 2020. The death rate of COVID-19(=2%) announced by WHO using the formula of deaths/confirmed was substantially underestimated. A dashboard was created to present the provisional CFRs of COVID-19 on a daily basis. CONCLUSIONS We suggest examining these three CFRs as a reference to the final CFR. An app developed for displaying the provisional CFR with these three CFRs can modify the underestimated CFR reported by WHO and media. CLINICALTRIAL Not available


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document