scholarly journals COVID-19 Healthcare Planning: Predicting Mortality and the Role of the Herd Immunity Barrier in the General Population

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 5228
Author(s):  
Julio Emilio Marco-Franco ◽  
Natividad Guadalajara-Olmeda ◽  
Silvia González-de Julián ◽  
David Vivas-Consuelo
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Daily Monitoring ◽  
Age Related ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Carlos Iii

Using a mathematical model for COVID-19 incorporating data on excess of mortality compared to the corresponding period of the previous year obtained from the daily monitoring of mortality in Spain (MoMo), the prediction of total number of casualties in Spain for the first outbreak has been computed. From this figure, and following a stepwise meta-analysis of available reports, the case fatality rate (CFR) and the infectious case fatality rate (IFR) for the outbreak have been estimated. As the impact of age on these rates is notable, it is proposed to include an age-related adjusted fatality ratio in future comparative analyses between studies, calculated by adjusting the results by risk ratio to a reference age band (e.g., 60–69). From the casualty figures, and the corresponding CFR and IFR ratios, the forecast of serologically positive cases in the general Spanish population has been estimated at approximately 1% (0.87–1.3%) of the samples. If the data are confirmed by the ongoing study of the Carlos III Institute, until a vaccine is found, the immunity acquired in the general population after the infectious outbreak is far from the 65–70% herd immunity required as a barrier for COVID-19.

scholarly journals Meta-analysis and metaregression of risk factors associated with mortality in hip fracture patients during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Firas J. Raheman ◽  
Djamila M. Rojoa ◽  
Jvalant Nayan Parekh ◽  
Reshid Berber ◽  
Robert Ashford
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Hip Fractures ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Pooled Analysis ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIncidence of hip fractures has remained unchanged during the pandemic with overlapping vulnerabilities observed in patients with hip fractures and those infected with COVID-19. We aimed to investigate the independent impact of COVID-19 infection on the mortality of these patients. Healthcare databases were systematically searched over 2-weeks from 1st–14th November 2020 to identify eligible studies assessing the impact of COVID-19 on hip fracture patients. Meta-analysis of proportion was performed to obtain pooled values of prevalence, incidence and case fatality rate of hip fracture patients with COVID-19 infection. 30-day mortality, excess mortality and all-cause mortality were analysed using a mixed-effects model. 22 studies reporting 4015 patients were identified out of which 2651 (66%) were assessed during the pandemic. An excess mortality of 10% was seen for hip fractures treated during the pandemic (OR 2.00, p = 0.007), in comparison to the pre-pandemic controls (5%). Estimated mortality of COVID-19 positive hip fracture patients was four-fold (RR 4.59, p < 0.0001) and 30-day mortality was 38.0% (HR 4.73, p < 0.0001). The case fatality rate for COVID-19 positive patients was 34.74%. Between-study heterogeneity for the pooled analysis was minimal (I2 = 0.00) whereas, random effects metaregression identified subgroup heterogeneity for male gender (p < 0.001), diabetes (p = 0.002), dementia (p = 0.001) and extracapsular fractures (p = 0.01) increased risk of mortality in COVID-19 positive patients.

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

scholarly journals Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever-induced liver injury: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sawai Singh Rathore ◽  
Ade Harrison Manju ◽  
Qingqing Wen ◽  
Manush Sondhi ◽  
Reshma Pydi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liver Injury ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
High Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Pooled Prevalence

Background: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a fatal acute tick-borne viral infection and a substantial emerging global public health threat. This illness has a high case fatality rate of up to 40%. The liver is one of the important target organs of the CCHF virus. Objective: The aim of this meta-analysis to evaluate the correlation between CCHF  and liver injury and draw more generalized inferences about the abnormal serum markers of liver injury such as alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) in CCHF patients. Methods: A literature search was accomplished for published eligible articles with MEDLINE/PubMed and Embase databases. All eligible observational studies and case series were included from around the world. The inclusion criteria were articles describing liver injury biomarkers AST and ALT amongst patients diagnosed with CCHF. Results: Data from 18 studies, consisting of 1238 patients with CCHF  were included in this meta-analysis. The overall pooled prevalence of at least one raised liver injury biomarker was 77.95% (95% CI, I2 = 88.50%, p < 0.0001). Similarly, pooled prevalence of elevated AST and ALT was 85.92% (95% CI, I2 = 85.27%,  p < 0.0001) and 64.30% (95% CI, I2 = 88.32%,  p < 0.0001) respectively.  Both Egger and Begg-Mazumdar’s tests detected no apparent publication bias in all three meta-analyses(p > 0.05).  Conclusion: These elevated liver injury biomarkers have been identified as significant prognostic factors. Hence, Physicians must recognize and continuously monitor these biomarkers, since these aid early stratification of prognosis and the prevention of severe outcomes in infection with such a high case fatality rate.

scholarly journals An Evidence Base for School Health Policy during the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saif Badran ◽  
Omran Musa ◽  
Somaya Al-maadeed ◽  
Egon Toft ◽  
Suhail Doi
Keyword(s):  
Dose Response ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
School Health ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Objective: Children represent a small fraction of confirmed COVID-19 cases, with a low case fatality rate (CFR). In this paper, we lay out an evidence-based policy for reopening schools. Methods: We gathered age-specific COVID-19 case counts and identified mortality data for 14 countries. Dose-response meta-analysis was used to examine the relationship of the incremental case fatality rate (CFR) to age. In addition, an evidence-to-decision framework (EtD) was used to correlate the dose-response data with other epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in childhood. Results: In the dose-response analysis, we found that there was an almost negligible fatality below age 18. CFR rose little between ages 5 to 50 years. The confidence intervals were narrow, suggesting relative homogeneity across countries. Further data suggested decreased childhood transmission from respiratory droplets and a low viral load among children. Conclusions: Opening up schools and kindergartens is unlikely to impact COVID-19 case or mortality rates in both the child and adult populations. We outline a robust plan for schools that recommends that general principles not be micromanaged, with authority left to schools and monitored by public health authorities.

scholarly journals Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of COVID-19–Infected Cancer Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Zhang ◽  
Han Han ◽  
Tianhui He ◽  
Kristen E Labbe ◽  
Adrian V Hernandez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Patients With Cancer ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Background Previous studies have indicated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with cancer have a high fatality rate. Methods We conducted a systematic review of studies that reported fatalities in COVID-19 patients with cancer. A comprehensive meta-analysis that assessed the overall case fatality rate and associated risk factors was performed. Using individual patient data, univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) for each variable with outcomes. Results We included 15 studies with 3019 patients, of which 1628 were men; 41.0% were from the United Kingdom and Europe, followed by the United States and Canada (35.7%), and Asia (China, 23.3%). The overall case fatality rate of COVID-19 patients with cancer measured 22.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.3% to 28.0%). Univariate analysis revealed age (OR = 3.57, 95% CI = 1.80 to 7.06), male sex (OR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.07 to 4.13), and comorbidity (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.04 to 3.85) were associated with increased risk of severe events (defined as the individuals being admitted to the intensive care unit, or requiring invasive ventilation, or death). In multivariable analysis, only age greater than 65 years (OR = 3.16, 95% CI = 1.45 to 6.88) and being male (OR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.07 to 4.87) were associated with increased risk of severe events. Conclusions Our analysis demonstrated that COVID-19 patients with cancer have a higher fatality rate compared with that of COVID-19 patients without cancer. Age and sex appear to be risk factors associated with a poorer prognosis.

scholarly journals Global epidemiology of septic shock: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. e032289
Author(s):  
Frank Leonel Tianyi ◽  
Joel Noutakdie Tochie ◽  
Celestin Danwang ◽  
Aime Mbonda ◽  
Mazou N Temgoua ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Septic Shock ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Primary Study ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Global Epidemiology

BackgroundSeptic shock is a life-threatening infection frequently responsible for hospital admissions or may be acquired as nosocomial infection in hospitalized patients with resultant significant morbidity and mortality . There is a dearth of data on a résumé and meta-analysis on the global epidemiology of this potentially deadly condition. Therefore, we propose the first systematic review to synthesize existing data on the global incidence, prevalence and case fatality rate of septic shock worldwide.MethodsWe will include cross-sectional, case-control and cohort studies reporting on the incidence, and case fatality rate of septic shock. Electronic databases including PubMed, Embase, WHO Global Health Library and Web of Science will be searched for relevant records published between 1 January 2000 and 31 August 2019. Independents reviewers will perform study selection and data extraction, as well as assessment of methodological quality of included studies. Appropriate meta-analysis will then be used to pool studies judged to be clinically homogenous. Egger’s test and funnel plots will be used to detect publication bias. Findings will be reported and compared by human development level of countries.Ethics and disseminationBeing a review, ethical approval is not required as it was obtained in the primary study which will make up the review. This review is expected to provide relevant data to help in evaluating the burden of septic shock in the general population. The overall findings of this research will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42019129783.

scholarly journals Bacterial pathogens and resistance causing community acquired paediatric bloodstream infections in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Droz ◽  
Yingfen Hsia ◽  
Sally Ellis ◽  
Angela Dramowski ◽  
Mike Sharland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Blood Culture ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Bacterial Pathogens ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Bloodstream Infections ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries

Abstract Background Despite a high mortality rate in childhood, there is limited evidence on the causes and outcomes of paediatric bloodstream infections from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to characterize the bacterial causes of paediatric bloodstream infections in LMICs and their resistance profile. Methods We searched Pubmed and Embase databases between January 1st 1990 and October 30th 2019, combining MeSH and free-text terms for “sepsis” and “low-middle-income countries” in children. Two reviewers screened articles and performed data extraction to identify studies investigating children (1 month-18 years), with at least one blood culture. The main outcomes of interests were the rate of positive blood cultures, the distribution of bacterial pathogens, the resistance patterns and the case-fatality rate. The proportions obtained from each study were pooled using the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation, and a random-effect meta-analysis model was used. Results We identified 2403 eligible studies, 17 were included in the final review including 52,915 children (11 in Africa and 6 in Asia). The overall percentage of positive blood culture was 19.1% [95% CI: 12.0–27.5%]; 15.5% [8.4–24.4%] in Africa and 28.0% [13.2–45.8%] in Asia. A total of 4836 bacterial isolates were included in the studies; 2974 were Gram-negative (63.9% [52.2–74.9]) and 1858 were Gram-positive (35.8% [24.9–47.5]). In Asia, Salmonella typhi (26.2%) was the most commonly isolated pathogen, followed by Staphylococcus aureus (7.7%) whereas in Africa, S. aureus (17.8%) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (16.8%) were predominant followed by Escherichia coli (10.7%). S. aureus was more likely resistant to methicillin in Africa (29.5% vs. 7.9%), whereas E. coli was more frequently resistant to third-generation cephalosporins (31.2% vs. 21.2%), amikacin (29.6% vs. 0%) and ciprofloxacin (36.7% vs. 0%) in Asia. The overall estimate for case-fatality rate among 8 studies was 12.7% [6.6–20.2%]. Underlying conditions, such as malnutrition or HIV infection were assessed as a factor associated with bacteraemia in 4 studies each. Conclusions We observed a marked variation in pathogen distribution and their resistance profiles between Asia and Africa. Very limited data is available on underlying risk factors for bacteraemia, patterns of treatment of multidrug-resistant infections and predictors of adverse outcomes.

scholarly journals Protection offered by COVID-19 vaccines in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection frequency; severity and mortality, among Indian Healthcare Workers: Multicenter, pan-Fortis study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subrat Acharya ◽  
Gaurav Mahindra ◽  
Purushottam Nirala ◽  
Sulabh Tripathi ◽  
Bishnu Panigrahi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Population Control ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Infection Frequency ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract During COVID-19 pandemic, Healthcare Workers (HCWs) were at increased risk for exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus and prioritized for early administration of COVID-19 vaccines in India. Real-life scenario information among vaccinated HCWs acquiring COVID-19 infection, is scarce. We retrospectively analyzed COVID-19 infection frequency, severity, and associated mortality among healthcare workers, immunized with either Covishield or Covaxin vaccines at 27 Fortis Hospitals across 11 Indian states. Positive cases were identified based on RT-PCR or rapid antigen tests for SARS-CoV-2 between 16th January 2021 till 15th May 2021. 20034 HCWs received vaccination. 3971 received 1 dose, 16063 received 2 doses. Post-vaccination, 1139 HCWs acquired COVID-19 infection, 180 (4.53%) and 959 (5.97%) among partially and fully vaccinated category, respectively. Breakthrough infection occurred among 913 (5.68%) HCWs. Concurrently, Case Positivity Rate was 11.9%, among general population (control). Among 1139 positive cases, mild, moderate, and severe infections were 1059 (93%), 71 (6.2%) and 9 (0.8%), respectively with Case Fatality Rate of 0.18%, compared to 0.92% among general population (p=0.0043). The Case Fatality Rate in vaccinated HCWs was found to be 80% less than that in general population (control). Hence, COVID-19 vaccines available in India seem to be effective against SARS-CoV-2 virus.

scholarly journals Mortality among the early cases of COVID-19 and its association with key comorbidities in a large state in South India

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 3882
Author(s):  
Suhas Bhat ◽  
Rohan Kolla ◽  
Shashank D. Shindhe ◽  
Surekha B. Munoli
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Median Number ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Large State ◽  
Death Time ◽  
The Impact

Background: The mortality associated with the pandemic COVID-19 is a subject of intense scrutiny as COVID-19 can cause severe disease leading to hospitalization in ICU and potentially death, especially in the elderly with comorbidities. A statistical analysis is carried out to study the impact of age, gender and comorbidities on deaths among early one lakh infected population of Karnataka, a large state in south India.Methods: Daily case fatality rate and adjusted case fatality rate (CFR) (adjusted to median death time) are estimated. The impacts of age, gender and comorbidities on mortality outcomes of COVID patients are studied.Results: The daily CFR on 27th July for Karnataka is estimated from the dataset to be 1.93%. However, the adjusted CFR based on the median number of days from diagnosis to death was found to be 2.15% (95% confidence interval 2%-2.3%) on that day. The deaths among male patients outnumber those in females. As far as age of the patients is concerned, more than 50% of the deaths occurred in the age group 50-60 and 60-70 years. Majority of deaths reported in the state were associated with at least one of the comorbidity. Diabetes mellitus and hypertension were the most significant comorbidities.Conclusions: The daily adjusted CFR for the study region is found to be lower than the CFR of the whole nation. Also the age, gender and comorbidities were found to be associated with the deaths as opposed to the infection alone. It was also deduced that, patients with a history of diabetes or hypertension or ischemic heart disease or a combination of any of these were most likely to experience severe outcomes of the infection. 

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