scholarly journals Forecasting the Mix of World Energy Needs by mid-21st Century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
THEODORE MODIS

The logistic function is used to forecast energy consumed worldwide. The logistic substitution model is used to describe the energy mix since 1965 presenting a picture significantly different from the one covering the previous 100 years. In the new picture the share of heavy pollutants, i.e. coal plus oil, keeps declining systematically in favor of natural gas and renewables (wind, geothermal, solar, biomass, and waste), the share of which grows rapidly. The shares of these three energy sources are poised to reach around 30% each by mid-21st century. Nuclear and hydroelectric energy, both with rather stable shares, are responsible for the remaining 10%, which goes mostly to hydroelectric; Zooming into the composition of renewables we find that today’s dominant wind power is about to begin losing share to solar energy, which will overtake wind after 2024 and account for more than 90% of all renewables by mid-21st century, by which time geothermal, biomass, and other sources of energy will have dropped to insignificant levels. Forecasts in exajoules are given for all energy sources up to 2050.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
THEODORE MODIS

The logistic function is used to forecast energy consumed worldwide and oil production in the U.S. The logistic substitution model is used to describe the energy mix since 1965 presenting a picture significantly different from the one covering the previous 100 years. In the new picture coal gently gains on oil and hydroelectric gains on natural gas even if it is three times smaller. Finally, renewables—wind, geothermal, solar, biomass, and waste—grow exclusively on the expense of nuclear, and are poised to overtake it by the late 2030s. By mid-21st century, coal, oil, and natural gas still remain the main players of comparable size. Hydroelectric has almost doubled in size. The only significant substitution is that of renewables having replaced nuclear albeit remaining at less than a ¼ the size of the other three energy sources. U.S. oil produced by fracking is forecasted to cease by mid-21st century, while oil produced by traditional methods should continue on its slowly declining trend. US oil production is likely to represent less than 1% of the oil consumed worldwide by mid-21st century.


2018 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 647
Author(s):  
Martin Wilkes

Since the turn of the century, gas has been highlighted as the transition fuel to a lower emissions world, and, in 2011, the International Energy Agency published a special report entitled ‘Are we entering the golden age of gas’, which indicated that gas use could rise by over 50% to provide more than 25% of world energy demand by 2035. Even though gas use has risen in tandem with the increase in renewable energy, over the past decade, coal has been the fastest growing fuel because developing countries choose cheap power to provide their growing energy needs. Gas has been, and continues to be, subject to a green, cheap squeeze; squeezed by cleaner renewables on the one hand, and cheaper coal on the other. This paper will look at the impact that increasing amounts of renewable energy has on existing power generation and supply systems, and provide insights into the potential range of outcomes in emission levels, and the need to not only discuss renewable energy target, but to also understand the total energy mix, and the need to reposition gas from a transition fuel to the natural long-term companion of renewables.


Combination of Photo voltaic and wind power is the one of the best solution for providing cleaning and nonpolluting energy from two of the most abundant renewable energy sources. A few areas have a wealth of light energy while others have a plenitude of wind. Having a mix Hybrid system enables you to exploit the predominant climate conditions to amplify vitality generation. The electrical vitality (DC control) created utilizing Solar panel can be put away in batteries or can be utilized for providing DC stacks or can be utilized for inverter to encourage AC loads. Solar Energy is accessible just amid the day time while wind vitality is accessible for the duration of the day relying on the climatic conditions. Wind and sun powered vitality are correlative to one another, which makes the framework to create power nearly consistentlys.


MRS Bulletin ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (09) ◽  
pp. 682-683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Q. Minh ◽  
Y. Shirley Meng

According to the US Department of Energy’s Energy Infomation Administration (EIA) (International Energy Outlook 2017), world energy consumption will increase 28% between 2015 and 2040, rising from 575 quadrillion Btu (∼606 quadrillion kJ) in 2015 to 736 quadrillion Btu (∼776 quadrillion kJ) in 2040. EIA predicts increases in consumption for all energy sources (excluding coal, which is estimated to remain flat)—fossil (petroleum and other liquids, natural gas), renewables (solar, wind, hydropower), and nuclear. Although renewables are the world’s fastest growing form of energy, fossil fuels are expected to continue to supply more than three-quarters of the energy used worldwide. Among the various fossil fuels, natural gas is the fastest growing, with a projected increase of 43% from 2015 to 2040. As the use of fossil fuels increases, the EIA projects world energy-related carbon dioxide emission to grow from ∼34 billion metric tons in 2015 to ∼40 billion metric tonnes in 2040 (an average 0.6% increase per year).


Author(s):  
Nick Carew ◽  
William Warnock ◽  
Ramazan Bayindir ◽  
Eklas Hossain ◽  
Adnan Siraj Rakin

Renewable energy sources are becoming a popular choice of energy, due to their sundry advantages and more convenient environmental impacts. Wind certainly emerges as one of the most plausible energy sources in modern power generation. However, large-scale wind energy is associated with fluctuations in voltage and power due to its intermittent nature. The proposed pumped hydroelectric energy storage system offers one of the best solutions in solving this problem. It is shown that large-scale integration of wind energy becomes more feasible and efficient when a proper energy storage system is added to achieve appropriate energy charging or discharging. Upon comparing the potential of different storage systems, pumped hydroelectric energy storage is found to be highly promising for wind integration. In order to demonstrate the behavior of the integrated system with respect to time constant and to verify the feasibility of the energy storage in different case studies, simulations are performed in Matlab/Simulink. This work would open new doors toward the investigation of large-scale wind power integration. It is also expected that pumped hydroelectric energy storage would become a possible alternative for energy reserves for large-scale wind power applications.


1982 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel R. Valais

For a world in search of energy diversification, natural gas is a particularly attractive source. Its abundance and its facility for being substituted for petroleum products over a wide range of uses should certainly mean that it will play a much more important role in filling world energy needs. Nonetheless, many obstacles are hindering its progress. This article outlines the leading technical and economic parameters, which should influence the development of the world gas industry, and the prospects for its production and international trade evolution between now and the end of the century.


2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Sarmento ◽  
Diamantino Durão

Portugal has strongly limited domestic energy resources, since imports almost 90% of its energy needs and its energy production is totally from renewable energy sources. The addition of natural gas to the Portuguese energy mix in 1997 helped to diversify Portugal’s energy sources and is a contribution to the mitigation of environmental problems. In 1997 also ceased the production and use of domestic coal. In fact, Portugal is working to reduce the growth in energy use and CO2 emissions, in order to follow the Kyoto Protocol. This measure can be linked to environmental sustainability policies, creating the opportunity for new business to appear. Natural gas, in some applications, can substitute the electricity, implying a decrease in price. Security of gas supply is an important issue, since Portugal depends mainly on a single supplier. This paper aims at analysing the emerging gas market, (threats and opportunities), its evolution andcomparison with other OECD countries.


1997 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 356-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fouad A-L.H. Abou-Hatab

This paper presents the case of psychology from a perspective not widely recognized by the West, namely, the Egyptian, Arab, and Islamic perspective. It discusses the introduction and development of psychology in this part of the world. Whenever such efforts are evaluated, six problems become apparent: (1) the one-way interaction with Western psychology; (2) the intellectual dependency; (3) the remote relationship with national heritage; (4) its irrelevance to cultural and social realities; (5) the inhibition of creativity; and (6) the loss of professional identity. Nevertheless, some major achievements are emphasized, and a four-facet look into the 21st century is proposed.


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