Time Series Analysis of Head Injury during Pandemic

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.31219/osf.io/p36at ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lekhansh Shukla

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Traffic Accidents ◽

Principal Component ◽

Ratio Test ◽

Severe Injuries ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Community Mobility ◽

Before And After ◽

And Gender ◽

Alcohol Sales

Introduction: Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is the most important cause of neurological disability worldwide. This study aims to find a change in TBI pattern during the coronavirus disease (COVID 19) pandemic.Methods: We have collected the number of TBI cases seen every day between 01/12/19 and 03/01/21 (400 days) in the emergency department of a tertiary neuropsychiatric centre in Bangalore and estimated a changepoint. Two predictors of this change — community mobility data from Google mobility reports (pre-processed with principal component analysis) and alcohol sales data from the wholesaler are examined. A time-series model using generalised linear regression for scale and shape is fit, and bootstrap confidence intervals are used for inference. We have compared the clinical details — mode and severity of the injury, compliance with safety regulations, age, residence and gender of patients seen before and after the changepoint.Results: An optimal changepoint is detected on 20/03/20 following which the mean number of TBI cases seen every day has decreased and variance has increased (Mean 1 = 29.4, Variance 1 = 50.1; Mean 2 = 19.5, Variance 2 = 59.7, Loglikelihood Ratio Test: χ2 = 130, df = 1, p < 0.001). Two principal components of community mobility, alcohol sales and weekday, explain the change in the number of TBI cases (Pseudo R-square = 58.1). A significant decrease in traffic accidents, falls, mild/moderate injuries, but an increase in assault and severe injuries is seen during the pandemic period.Conclusions: Decongestion of roads and regulation of alcohol sales can decrease TBI occurrence substantially. An increase in violent trauma during lockdown needs further research in the light of domestic violence. Acute care facilities for TBI should be maintained even during a strict lockdown as the proportion of severe TBI requiring admission increases.

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Face mask mandates and risk compensation: an analysis of mobility data during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh

BMJ Global Health ◽

10.1136/bmjgh-2021-006803 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. e006803

Author(s):

Zia Wadud ◽

Sheikh Mokhlesur Rahman ◽

Annesha Enam

Keyword(s):

Regression Analysis ◽

Compensation Effect ◽

Face Mask ◽

Daily Activities ◽

Risk Compensation ◽

Risky Behaviour ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Community Mobility ◽

Daily Mobility ◽

Before And After

IntroductionConcerns have been raised about the potential for risk compensation in the context of mask mandates for mitigating the spread of COVID-19. However, the debate about the presence or absence of risk compensation for universal mandatory mask-wearing rules—especially in the context of COVID-19—is not settled yet.MethodsMobility is used as a proxy for risky behaviour before and after the mask mandates. Two sets of regressions are estimated to decipher (any) risk-compensating effect of mask mandate in Bangladesh. These include: (1) intervention regression analysis of daily activities at six types of locations, using pre-mask-mandate and post-mandate data; and (2) multiple regression analysis of daily new COVID-19 cases on daily mobility (lagged) to establish mobility as a valid proxy.Results(1) Statistically, mobility increased at all five non-residential locations, while home stays decreased after the mask mandate was issued; (2) daily mobility had a statistically significant association on daily new cases (with around 10 days of lag). Both significances were calculated at 95% confidence level.ConclusionCommunity mobility had increased (and stay at home decreased) after the mandatory mask-wearing rule, and given mobility is associated with increases in new COVID-19 cases, there is evidence of risk compensation effect of the mask mandate—at least partially—in Bangladesh.

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Time Series Analysis for Assessing and Forecasting of Road Traffic Accidents - Case Studies

WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON MATHEMATICS ◽

10.37394/23206.2020.19.17 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 19 ◽

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Case Studies ◽

Traffic Accidents ◽

Road Traffic ◽

Public Health Problem ◽

Road Traffic Accidents ◽

The Road ◽

Before And After ◽

The Uk ◽

Serious Injuries

Road traffic accident is one of the main causes of injuries and fatalities worldwide, serious injuries and mortality in road collisions being a public health problem. The paper gives a overview of time series modeling and forecasting with application in road traffic injuries monitoring. After presenting of the main models and the methodological issues used in Box-Jenkins approach, the paper discusses two case studies, using a multiplicative SARIMA model and an intervention model, for a time series representing the number of mortal traffic accidents in USA, and the road traffic accidents with death and serious injuries in the UK, before and after the imposition of the Arabian embargo in November 1973.

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Can Psychological Traits Explain Mobility Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Social Psychological and Personality Science ◽

10.1177/1948550620952572 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 194855062095257

Author(s):

Ho Fai Chan ◽

Jordan W. Moon ◽

David A. Savage ◽

Ahmed Skali ◽

Benno Torgler ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Regulatory Compliance ◽

Exogenous Shock ◽

Psychological Traits ◽

Individual Level ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Level Data ◽

Before And After ◽

Mobility Behavior ◽

And Gender ◽

And Behavior

The current COVID-19 pandemic is a global, exogenous shock, impacting individuals’ decision making and behavior allowing researchers to test theories of personality by exploring how traits, in conjunction with individual and societal differences, affect compliance and cooperation. Study 1 used Google mobility data and nation-level personality data from 31 countries, both before and after region-specific legislative interventions, finding that agreeable nations are most consistently compliant with mobility restrictions. Study 2 ( N = 105,857) replicated these findings using individual-level data, showing that several personality traits predict sheltering in place behavior, but extraverts are especially likely to remain mobile. Overall, our analyses reveal robust relationships between traits and regulatory compliance (mobility behavior), both before and after region-specific legislative interventions, and the global declaration of the pandemic. Further, we find significant effects on reasons for leaving home, as well as age and gender differences, particularly relating to female agreeableness for previous and future social mobility behaviors. These sex differences, however, are only visible for those living in households with two or more people, suggesting that such findings may be driven by division of labor.

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Can psychological traits explain mobility behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic?

10.31234/osf.io/5q3jv ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ho Fai Chan ◽

Jordan W Moon ◽

David Alan Savage ◽

Ahmed Skali ◽

Benno Torgler ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Regulatory Compliance ◽

Division Of Labour ◽

Exogenous Shock ◽

Psychological Traits ◽

Individual Level ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Level Data ◽

Before And After ◽

Mobility Behaviour ◽

And Gender

The current COVID19 pandemic is a global exogenous shock, impacting individuals’ decision making and behaviour allowing researchers to test theories of personality by exploring how traits, in conjunction with individual and societal differences affect compliance and cooperation. Study 1 used Google Mobility data and nation-level personality data from 31 countries, both before and after region-specific legislative interventions, finding that agreeable nations are most consistently compliant with mobility restrictions. Study 2 (N=105,857) replicated these findings using individual-level data, showing that several personality traits predict sheltering in place behavior, but extraverts are especially likely to remain mobile. Overall, our analyses reveal robust relationships between traits and regulatory compliance (mobility behaviour) both before and after region specific legislative interventions, and the global declaration of the pandemic. Further, we find significant effects on reasons for leaving home, as well as age and gender differences, particularly relating to female agreeableness for previous and future social mobility behaviours. These sex differences, however, are only visible for those living in households with two or more people, suggesting that such findings may be driven by division of labour.

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Lymph nodes detection and the mesorectal excision quality evaluation

Perspectives in Surgery ◽

10.33699/pis.2019.98.5.200-206 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 98 (5) ◽

pp. 200-206

Keyword(s):

Lymph Nodes ◽

Neoadjuvant Therapy ◽

Quality Evaluation ◽

Rectal Resection ◽

Age Groups ◽

Cooperative Groups ◽

Mesorectal Excision ◽

Proper Number ◽

Before And After ◽

And Gender

ntroduction: Detection and examination of proper number of lymph nodes in patients after rectal resection is important for next treatment and management of patients with rectal carcinoma. There are no clear guideliness for minimal count of lymph nodes, variant recommendations agree on the number of 12 (10−14) nodes. There are situations, when is not easy to reach this count, mainly in older age groups and in patients after neoadjuvant, especially radiation therapy. As a modality for improvement of lymph nodes harvesting seems to be establishing of defined protocols originally designed for mesorectal excision quality evaluation. Methods: The investigation group was formed by patients examined in 2 three-years intervals before and after implementation of the protocol. Elevation in count of harvested lymph nodes was rated generaly and in relation to age groups and gender. Results: The average count of lymph nodes increased from 10 to 15 nodes, in subset of patients whose received neoadjuvant therapy from 7 to al- most 14 nodes. The recommended number of lymph nodes was obtained in all investigated age groups. By the increased number of lymph nodes, rises also possibility of positive nodes found, that can lead to upstaging of the disease, in subset of patients whose received neoadjuvant therapy it is more than 4%. Conclusion: Our conclusions show, that forming of multidisciplinary cooperative groups (chiefly surgeon-pathologist), implementation of defined protocol of surgery, specimen manipulation and investigation by detached specialists lead to benefit consequences for further management and treatment of the patients with colorectal cancer.

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Structural Change Point Detection Method of Time Series Using Sequential Probability Ratio Test

IEEJ Transactions on Electronics Information and Systems ◽

10.1541/ieejeiss.128.583 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 128 (4) ◽

pp. 583-592 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Hiromichi Kawano ◽

Tetsuo Hattori ◽

Ken Nishimatsu

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Structural Change ◽

Change Point ◽

Detection Method ◽

Sequential Probability Ratio Test ◽

Change Point Detection ◽

Ratio Test ◽

Probability Ratio ◽

Sequential Probability ◽

Point Detection

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Highlighted of Ramadan Fasting on Diabetes-Study of Complications, Biochemical Aspects and Anthropometry

Romanian Journal of Diabetes Nutrition and Metabolic Diseases ◽

10.2478/rjdnmd-2019-0023 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 26 (3) ◽

pp. 227-234 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Meriem Bencharif ◽

Ibrahim Sersar ◽

Maroua Bentaleb ◽

Fatima Zohra Boutata ◽

Youcef Benabbas

Keyword(s):

Nutrition Education ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Glucose Monitoring ◽

Public Information ◽

Blood Glucose Monitoring ◽

Loss Of Consciousness ◽

Ramadan Fasting ◽

Balanced Diet ◽

Before And After ◽

And Gender

Abstract Background and aims: The diabetic exempted from fasting by religion, wishing or not to observe the fast, is exposed like any other during Ramadan to a change in lifestyle. The objective of this study was to highlight the effects of Ramadan fasting on diabetes. Material and methods: Multicentre study on 899 diabetics was carried to collect data on the behaviour of diabetics with regard to the fast of Ramadan, biochemicals and anthropometry parameters. Results. The sample consists of 541 diabetic fasters (DTMF) and 358 no fasters. The causes of interruption of fasting were: hypoglycemia (82.4%), dehydration (44.5%), hyperglycemia (12.6%), high blood pressure (13.7%), loss of consciousness (8.3%). The risk factors related to fasting for DTMF were the type of diabetes and gender. Discussion and modifications about dietary, blood glucose monitoring and nutritional education sessions showed a protective effect against the occurrence of hypo and hyperglycemia and loss of consciousness. Decreasing differences were noted for Hb1Ac, LDL and Total-Cholesterol between before and after Ramadan. The weight of DTMF decreased in post-Ramadan (p=0.0000). Conclusion. There is a need to consider regular preventive measures based on public information on the effects of diabetes related complications and the benefits of a balanced diet combined with regular physical activity in nutrition education sessions.

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The Relationship between Mobility and COVID-19 in Germany: Modeling Case Occurrence using Apple's Mobility Trends Data

Methods of Information in Medicine ◽

10.1055/s-0041-1726276 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Mark David Walker ◽

Mihály Sulyok

Keyword(s):

Generalized Additive Models ◽

Information Criterion ◽

Additive Models ◽

Online Data ◽

German Government ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Community Mobility ◽

The Relationship ◽

Potential Use

Abstract Background Restrictions on social interaction and movement were implemented by the German government in March 2020 to reduce the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Apple's “Mobility Trends” (AMT) data details levels of community mobility; it is a novel resource of potential use to epidemiologists. Objective The aim of the study is to use AMT data to examine the relationship between mobility and COVID-19 case occurrence for Germany. Is a change in mobility apparent following COVID-19 and the implementation of social restrictions? Is there a relationship between mobility and COVID-19 occurrence in Germany? Methods AMT data illustrates mobility levels throughout the epidemic, allowing the relationship between mobility and disease to be examined. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were established for Germany, with mobility categories, and date, as explanatory variables, and case numbers as response. Results Clear reductions in mobility occurred following the implementation of movement restrictions. There was a negative correlation between mobility and confirmed case numbers. GAM using all three categories of mobility data accounted for case occurrence as well and was favorable (AIC or Akaike Information Criterion: 2504) to models using categories separately (AIC with “driving,” 2511. “transit,” 2513. “walking,” 2508). Conclusion These results suggest an association between mobility and case occurrence. Further examination of the relationship between movement restrictions and COVID-19 transmission may be pertinent. The study shows how new sources of online data can be used to investigate problems in epidemiology.

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Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Pierre Nouvellet ◽

Sangeeta Bhatia ◽

Anne Cori ◽

Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽

Marc Baguelin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Predictive Ability ◽

Control Measures ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Beneficial Effects ◽

Mobility Data ◽

Strict Control ◽

Before And After ◽

Proxy Measure ◽

Lower Transmission ◽

The Relationship

AbstractIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27–77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49–91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12–48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.

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