scholarly journals Evaluating General versus Singular Causal Prevention

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Stephan ◽  
Sarah Placì ◽  
Michael R. Waldmann
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Medical Research ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Singular Case ◽  
Psychological Models ◽  
Causal Strength ◽  
Psychological Studies

Most psychological studies focused on how people reason about generative causation, in which a cause produces an effect. We here study the prevention of effects both on the general and singular level. A general prevention query might ask how strongly a vaccine is expected to reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19, whereas a singular prevention query might ask whether the absence of COVID-19 in a specific vaccinated person actually resulted from this person’s vaccination. We propose a computational model answering how knowledge about the general strength of a preventive cause can be used to assess whether a preventive link is instantiated in a singular case. We also discuss how psychological models of causal strength learning relate to mathematical models of vaccination efficacy used in medical research. The results of an experimentsuggest that many, but not all people differentiate between preventive strength and singular prevention queries, in line with the formal model.

scholarly journals The interplay between covariation, temporal, and mechanism information in singular causation judgments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Stephan ◽  
Michael R. Waldmann
Keyword(s):  
Computational Model ◽  
Causal Attribution ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Spatiotemporal Location ◽  
The Past ◽  
Singular Causation ◽  
Causal Judgments ◽  
Causal Strength ◽  
Causal Cognition ◽  
Psychological Studies

Most psychological studies on causal cognition have focused on how people make predictions from causes to effects or how they assess causal strength for general causal relationships (e.g., “smoking causes cancer”). In the past years, there has been a surge of interest in other types of causal judgments, such as diagnostic inferences or causal selection. Our focus here is on how people assess singular causation relations between cause and effect events that occurred at a particular spatiotemporal location (e.g., “Mary’s having taking this pill caused her sickness.”). The analysis of singular causation has received much attention in philosophy, but relatively few psychological studies have investigated how lay people assess these relations. Based on the power PC model of causal attribution proposed by Cheng and Novick (2005), we have developed and tested a new computational model of singular causation judgments integrating covariation, temporal, and mechanism information. We provide an overview of this research and outline important questions for future research.

scholarly journals A computational model for driver's cognitive state, visual perception and intermittent attention in a distracted car following task

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. 180194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jami Pekkanen ◽  
Otto Lappi ◽  
Paavo Rinkkala ◽  
Samuel Tuhkanen ◽  
Roosa Frantsi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Computational Model ◽  
Task Performance ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Internal Representation ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Cognitive State ◽  
Car Following ◽  
Visual Sampling ◽  
Psychological Models ◽  
Instrumented Vehicle

We present a computational model of intermittent visual sampling and locomotor control in a simple yet representative task of a car driver following another vehicle. The model has a number of features that take it beyond the current state of the art in modelling natural tasks, and driving in particular. First, unlike most control theoretical models in vision science and engineering—where control is directly based on observable (optical) variables—actions are based on a temporally enduring internal representation. Second, unlike the more sophisticated engineering driver models based on internal representations, our model explicitly aims to be psychologically plausible, in particular in modelling perceptual processes and their limitations. Third, unlike most psychological models, it is implemented as an actual simulation model capable of full task performance (visual sampling and longitudinal control). The model is developed and validated using a dataset from a simplified car-following experiment ( N = 40, in both three-dimensional virtual reality and a real instrumented vehicle). The results replicate our previously reported connection between time headway and visual attention. The model reproduces this connection and predicts that it emerges from control of action uncertainty. Implications for traffic psychological models and future developments for psychologically plausible yet computationally rigorous models of full natural task performance are discussed.

scholarly journals Simulation of nitrate and potassium concentrations in soil solution using parametric models and Hydrus-2D

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Beatriz Santos Conceição ◽  
Eugênio Ferreira Coelho ◽  
João José da Silva Junior ◽  
José Antonio do Vale Sant’Ana ◽  
Mauro Aparecido Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Soil Solution ◽  
Potassium Concentration ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Linear Type ◽  
Experimental Plots ◽  
Drainage Lysimeter

This study estimated the nitrate and potassium concentration in the soil solution of drainage lysimeter using the mathematical models developed by Vogeler et al. (1996) and Muñoz-Carpena et al. (2005) and the computational model Hydrus-2D, while comparing the simulated and observed data using statistical parameters. The cultivar used for the study was ‘Prata Gorutuba’. The experimental plots were six lysimeters of drainage. Fertigation was performed weekly. The mathematical models developed by Vogeler et al. (1996) and Muñoz-Carpena et al. (2005) were used to determine the specific concentration of a given ion (Ci). The Hydrus software was used to simulate the dynamics of nutrients. The concentrations of nitrate and potassium in the soil solution were estimated by the model of Vogeler et al. (1996), adapted to the linear type CEw-Ci ratio and simulated by the Hydrus model, resulting in an acceptable characterization of the distribution of these nutrients.

Evolutionary Intelligence and Quality-Of-Information

2016 ◽  
pp. 284-313
Author(s):  
Eliana Pereira ◽  
Eva Silva ◽  
Bruno Fernandes ◽  
José Neves
Keyword(s):  
Computational Model ◽  
Incomplete Information ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Quality Of Information ◽  
Health Institution ◽  
Degree Of Confidence ◽  
The Universe ◽  
Evolutionary Intelligence ◽  
Universe Of Discourse

The strategy of making predictions for a specific case or problem, in particular regarding scenarios with incomplete information, should follow a dynamic and formal model. This chapter presents a specific case concerning the employment of professionals for a health institution, as technicians and physicians, to demonstrate a model that requires the Quality-of-Information and the Degree-of-Confidence of the extensions of the predicates that model the universe of discourse. It is also mentioned a virtual intellect, or computational model, in order to maximize the Degree-of-Confidence that is associated with each term in the extensions of the predicates, according to the approximate representation of the universe of discourse. This model is prepared to be adopted by a Business Intelligence platform in order to increase the Quality-of-Information and the Degree-of-Confidence of the extensions in healthcare.

Equilibrium Models in Economics

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence A. Boland
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Graduate Students ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Evolutionary Models ◽  
Equilibrium Models ◽  
Equilibrium Concept ◽  
Beginning Students

Equilibrium models used in beginning economics classes are based on the equilibrium concept developed by Alfred Marshall, but that concept of an equilibrium does not correspond to the equilibrium concept recognized in modern formal mathematical models taught to graduate students. In both cases, the assumptions needed to produce explanations of economic events are open to question. The assumptions needed to prove the existence of an equilibrium in formal mathematical models are often questioned not only by older model builders but also by today’s formal model builders. This book critically examines both model building cultures by examining the major problematic assumptions employed building equilibrium models with particular attention to the assumptions used to characterize learning, knowledge, and expectations. These assumptions are recognized as essential in any equilibrium model that claims to address the dynamics of decision making. These assumptions are also the object of the critiques provided by those developing evolutionary models and by those promoting the development of complexity economics. Attention is also given to the inadequacies of what is taught to beginning students when it comes to the question of whether equilibrium models can provide a realistic explanation of economic events and objects such as prices, market demands, and market supplies.

scholarly journals Formalizing Informal Logic

2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas Walton ◽  
Thomas F. Gordon
Keyword(s):  
Computational Model ◽  
Formal Model ◽  
Informal Logic ◽  
Argumentation Schemes ◽  
Argumentation System ◽  
Cas A ◽  
The Carneades Argumentation System

This paper presents a formalization of informal logic using the Carneades Argumentation System (CAS), a formal, computational model of argument that consists of a formal model of argument graphs and audiences. Conflicts between pro and con arguments are resolved using proof standards, such as preponderance of the evidence. CAS also formalizes argumentation schemes. Schemes can be used to check whether a given argument instantiates the types of argument deemed normatively appropriate for the type of dialogue.

Application of Scanning Electron Microscopy to Medical Research

1969 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 12-13
Author(s):  
J. D. Hutchison
Keyword(s):  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Electron Microscope ◽  
Medical Research ◽  
Prosthetic Heart Valve ◽  
School Of Medicine ◽  
Transmission Electron ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Mechanism Of Failure ◽  
The Brain ◽  
Scanning Electron

When the transmission electron microscope was commercially introduced a few years ago, it was heralded as one of the most significant aids to medical research of the century. It continues to occupy that niche; however, the scanning electron microscope is gaining rapidly in relative importance as it fills the gap between conventional optical microscopy and transmission electron microscopy.IBM Boulder is conducting three major programs in cooperation with the Colorado School of Medicine. These are the study of the mechanism of failure of the prosthetic heart valve, the study of the ultrastructure of lung tissue, and the definition of the function of the cilia of the ventricular ependyma of the brain.

Clinical Science in the 1990s

1990 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
M. J. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Medical Research ◽  
Review Process ◽  
Molecular Level ◽  
Short Interval ◽  
Clinical Science ◽  
Molecular Medicine ◽  
Mutual Benefit ◽  
Real Progress ◽  
General Journal

From this issue, Clinical Science will increase its page numbers from an average of 112 to 128 per monthly issue. This welcome change — equivalent to at least two manuscripts — has been ‘forced’ on us by the increasing pressure on space; this has led to an undesirable increase in the delay between acceptance and publication, and to a fall in the proportion of submitted manuscripts we have been able to accept. The change in page numbers will instead permit us now to return to our exceptionally short interval between acceptance and publication of 3–4 months; and at the same time we shall be able not only to accept (as now) those papers requiring little or no revision, but also to offer hope to some of those papers which have raised our interest but come to grief in review because of a major but remediable problem. Our view, doubtless unoriginal, has been that the review process, which is unusually thorough for Clinical Science, involving a specialist editor and two external referees, is most constructive when it helps the evolution of a good paper from an interesting piece of research. Traditionally, the papers in Clinical Science have represented some areas of research more than others. However, this has reflected entirely the pattern of papers submitted to us, rather than any selective interest of the Editorial Board, which numbers up to 35 scientists covering most areas of medical research. Arguably, after the explosion during the last decade of specialist journals, the general journal can look forward to a renaissance in the 1990s, as scientists in apparently different specialities discover that they are interested in the same substances, asking similar questions and developing techniques of mutual benefit to answer these questions. This situation arises from the trend, even among clinical scientists, to recognize the power of research based at the cellular and molecular level to achieve real progress, and at this level the concept of organ-based specialism breaks down. It is perhaps ironic that this journal, for a short while at the end of the 1970s, adopted — and then discarded — the name of Clinical Science and Molecular Medicine, since this title perfectly represents the direction in which clinical science, and therefore Clinical Science, is now progressing.

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