scholarly journals A decision network account of reasoning about other people's choices

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Jern
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Mental Models ◽  
Probabilistic Inference ◽  
Decision Networks ◽  
Decision Network ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Made In

The ability to predict and reason about other people's choices is fundamental to social interaction. We propose that people reason about other people's choices using mental models that are similar to decision networks. Decision networks are extensions of Bayesian networks that incorporate the idea that choices are made in order to achieve goals. In our first experiment, we explore how people predict the choices of others. Our remaining three experiments explore how people infer the goals and knowledge of others by observing the choices that they make. We show that decision networks account for our data better than alternative computational accounts that do not incorporate the notion of goal-directed choice or that do not rely on probabilistic inference.

Study of Ancient Land Boundaries at Tauric Chersonesos Using Satellite Images

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edgar A. Terekhin ◽  
Tatiana N. Smekalova
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Information Systems ◽  
Geographic Information Systems ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Field Surveys ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Made In

Abstract The near chora (agricultural land) of Tauric Chersonesos was investigated using multiyear remote sensing data and field surveys. The boundaries of the land plots were studied with GIS (Geographic Information Systems) technology and an analysis of satellite images. Reliable reconstruction of the borders has been done for 231 plots (from a total of about 380), which is approximately 53% of the Chersonesean chora. During the last 50 years, most of the ancient land plots have been destroyed by modern buildings, roads, or forests. However, in the 1960s, a significant part of the chora was still preserved. Changes in preservation with time were studied with the aid of satellite images that were made in 1966 and 2015. During that period, it was found that the number of plots with almost-complete preservation decreased from 47 to 0. Those land plots whose preservation was better than 50% dropped from 104 to 4. A temporal map shows this decline in preservation. It was found that the areas of land plots could be determined accurately with satellite images; compared to field surveys, this accuracy was about 99%.

Application of Bayesian Network in Safety Evaluation of Metro Construction

2013 ◽  
Vol 838-841 ◽  
pp. 1463-1468
Author(s):  
Xiang Ke Liu ◽  
Zhi Shen Wang ◽  
Hai Liang Wang ◽  
Jun Tao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Posterior Probability ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Tunnel Blasting ◽  
Better Than

The paper introduced the Bayesian networks briefly and discussed the algorithm of transforming fault tree into Bayesian networks at first, then regarded the structures impaired caused by tunnel blasting construction as a example, introduced the built and calculated method of the Bayesian networks by matlab. Then assumed the probabilities of essential events, calculated the probability of top event and the posterior probability of each essential events by the Bayesian networks. After that the paper contrast the characteristics of fault tree analysis and the Bayesian networks, Identified that the Bayesian networks is better than fault tree analysis in safety evaluation in some case, and provided a valid way to assess risk in metro construction.

Introducing Problem-based Learning to Special Needs Dentistry—A Case Study

2002 ◽  
Vol os9 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raman Bedi ◽  
Jackie A Champion ◽  
Roger Davies
Keyword(s):  
Special Needs ◽  
Problem Based Learning ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Training And Education ◽  
Mixed Response ◽  
Conventional Teaching ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Made In

Introduction In order to promote training and education in special-needs dentistry an attempt was made to introduce problem-based learning (PBL) as a method of postgraduate dental education. The aim of this paper was to review the principles of PBL and report on a case study using this methodology. Method The case study was of a PBL session, on the subject of ‘problems of obtaining appropriate dental care for people with epilepsy’, undertaken at a national conference. Delegates were asked to complete a pre- and post-session questionnaire on PBL and their attitudes to the session. Results The session received a mixed response. Only 33 (35%) thought the session was valuable and only 20 (31%) thought it was better than conventional teaching methods and yet over half (55%) said they would like to attend more PBL in special-needs dentistry. Professionals complementary to dentistry were more likely to find the PBL session of value and to prefer the method to a more conventional format than dentists were (chi-square=5.5, df=1, p<0.05 and chi-square=5.9, df=1, p<0.05 respectively). Conclusion Valuable feedback was received from delegates. This will enable improvements to be made in future courses so that the effectiveness of PBL can be optimised.

FURTHER STUDIES ON NATURAL SELECTION AMONG HYBRIDS OF CARDUUS ACANTHOIDES AND CARDUUS NUTANS

1964 ◽  
Vol 42 (12) ◽  
pp. 1605-1613 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Moore ◽  
G. A. Mulligan
Keyword(s):  
Natural Selection ◽  
Chromosome Number ◽  
Parental Species ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Great Decrease ◽  
Carduus Acanthoides ◽  
Carduus Nutans ◽  
Experimental Plots ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Made In

A third 5-year survey made in 1962 of Carduus acanthoides, C. nutans, and their hybrids in Grey Co., Ontario, revealed that a great decrease in these populations had occurred. C. acanthoides and hybrids similar to this species had survived better than C. nutans but very little spread of either species seemed to have occurred in 1957–1962. In experimental plots the hybrid has been made and backcrossed to the parental species. The species differ in chromosome number (C. acanthoides, 2n = 22; C. nutans, 2n = 16) and hybrids have intermediate numbers. Evidence was found from field and experimental studies that the progeny of the F1 hybrid included a greater proportion of seedlings with the higher chromosome numbers than with the lower and intermediate numbers. It is suggested that this selection may operate through the rejection of the longer chromosomes received from C. nutans, which, in certain zygotic combinations may constitute an excess of chromatin lethal to the zygote.

Snap! Recognising Implicit Actions in Static Point-Light Displays

Perception ◽  
10.1068/p6320 ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 613-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Reid ◽  
Anna Brooks ◽  
Duncan Blair ◽  
Rick van der Zwan
Keyword(s):  
Biological Motion ◽  
Neural Mechanisms ◽  
Point Light ◽  
Static Point ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Made In

Johansson (1973 Perception & Psychophysics14 201–211) suggested that point-light displays that are static—so-called ‘snapshots’—contain little or no information about the actor or their action. Here we present data that suggest even naive observers can perceive such information from static point-light arrays. Observers were able, at rates better than chance, to discriminate the directions of facing of sagittally viewed static point-light walkers. The data show also that, without feedback, performances improved with experience. Our data have implications for assumptions made in designing experiments with point-light displays and for models of the neural mechanisms mediating biological motion perceptions.

scholarly journals Response of Recycled Brick Aggregate Concrete to High Temperatures

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 224-227
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Compressive Strength ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Fire Performance ◽  
Demolition Waste ◽  
Aggregate Concrete ◽  
Different Temperatures ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Made In

The abundant availability of demolition waste from construction industry is leading towards a significant problem of disposal, land and air pollution. The natural aggregate resources are also depleting due to development of construction activities. An attempt is made in this study to convert this waste into wealth by substituting the recycled brick from demolition waste to granite aggregate in production of the concrete. The granite aggregate (GA) is replaced with recycled brick aggregate (RBA) by 25% of its weight to produce M15 and M20 grades of concrete. The granite aggregate concrete (GAC) and recycled brick aggregate concrete (RBAC) were subjected to different temperatures between 100 to 1000oC for a duration of 3 hours and the mechanical properties such as compressive strength and flexural strength were examined to assess its fire performance. The response of RBAC is better than GAC at each temperature. The study revealed that the residual strength increases with the increase in grade of concrete at all temperatures.

scholarly journals The engineering skills training process modeling using dynamic bayesian nets

2021 ◽  
pp. 87-96
Author(s):  
Andrey Chukhray ◽  
Olena Havrylenko
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
Probabilistic Inference ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Computer Training ◽  
Skills Training ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Networks ◽  
Competence Level ◽  
Intelligent Computer

The subject of research in the article is the process of intelligent computer training in engineering skills. The aim is to model the process of teaching engineering skills in intelligent computer training programs through dynamic Bayesian networks. Objectives: To propose an approach to modeling the process of teaching engineering skills. To assess the student competence level by considering the algorithms development skills in engineering tasks and the algorithms implementation ability. To create a dynamic Bayesian network structure for the learning process. To select values for conditional probability tables. To solve the problems of filtering, forecasting, and retrospective analysis. To simulate the developed dynamic Bayesian network using a special Genie 2.0-environment. The methods used are probability theory and inference methods in Bayesian networks. The following results are obtained: the development of a dynamic Bayesian network for the educational process based on the solution of engineering problems is presented. Mathematical calculations for probabilistic inference problems such as filtering, forecasting, and smoothing are considered. The solution of the filtering problem makes it possible to assess the current level of the student's competence after obtaining the latest probabilities of the development of the algorithm and its numerical calculations of the task. The probability distribution of the learning process model is predicted. The number of additional iterations required to achieve the required competence level was estimated. The retrospective analysis allows getting a smoothed assessment of the competence level, which was obtained after the task's previous instance completion and after the computation of new additional probabilities characterizing the two checkpoints implementation. The solution of the described probabilistic inference problems makes it possible to provide correct information about the learning process for intelligent computer training systems. It helps to get proper feedback and to track the student's competence level. The developed technique of the kernel of probabilistic inference can be used as the decision-making model basis for an automated training process. The scientific novelty lies in the fact that dynamic Bayesian networks are applied to a new class of problems related to the simulation of engineering skills training in the process of performing algorithmic tasks.

scholarly journals ANALISA UNJUK KERJA MESIN STEMPEL FLASH MADE IN TIONGKOK MEREK FLAZ TERHADAP MESIN STEMPEL FLASH MADE IN INDONESIA MEREK MD

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-18
Author(s):  
Slamet Raharjo ◽  
Massus Subekti ◽  
Imam Arif Raharjo
Keyword(s):  
Grounded Theory ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Operation Time ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Quality Parameter ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Machine Performance ◽  
Work Method ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Made In

This research aimed to find out the work method of flash stamp machine made in Tiongkok brand Flaz and flash stamp machine made in Indonesia brand MD observed from each machine performance including colour stamp quality resulted, duration in its operation, as well as power and electricity consumption. The research method adopted is qualitative method with grounded theory approach. This research conducted in Enterprise of Flash Stamp Machine made in Indonesia brand MD on Jl. Lembang Baru I West Sudimara, Ciledug, Tangerang, Banten. The result drawn from work method research of both flash stamp machine are: First,   the stamp quality resulted by flash stamp machine brand MD was better than flash stamp machine brand MD. Second, the operation time of flash stamp machine brand MD was 4 second faster, that is 3 second, while flash sta mp machine brand Flaz was 4 second. Third, the electricity power consumption of flash stamp machine brand Flaz was smaller that is 136,62 watt, while brand Flaz was 392,34 watt. Fourth, the electrical energy consumption of flash stamp machine Flaz was smaller that is 888,39 Joule, while flash stamp machine brand MD was 1709,06. The conclusion drawn from work method research of flash stamp machine made in Tiongkok brand Flaz toward flash stamp machine made in Indonesia brand MD measured from stamp output quality parameter and operation time speed, so flash stamp machine made in Indonesia brand MD is better than flash stamp machine made in Tiongkok brand Flaz. Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui unjuk kerja mesin stempel flash made in Tiongkok merek Flaz terhadap mesin stempel flash made in Indonesia merek MD dilihat dari performa masing-masing mesin meliputi kualitas cap stempel warna yang dihasilkannya, lama waktu pengoperasiannya, pemakaian daya serta konsumsi energi listriknya. Metode penelitian yang di gunakan adalah metode kualitatif dengan pendekatan penelitian grounded theory. Penelitian ini dilakukan di Perusahaan Pembuatan Mesin Stempel Flash made In Indonesia merek MD di Jl. Lembang Baru I Kelurahan Sudimara Barat, Ciledug, Tangerang, Banten. Hasil yang diperoleh dari penelitian unjuk kerja kedua mesin stempel flash ini adalah :  Pertama, kualitas cap stempel yang dihasilkan mesin stempel flash merek MD lebih bagus dibandingkan mesin stempel flash merek Flaz. Kedua, lama waktu operasinya 4 detik lebih cepat mesin stempel flash merek MD yaitu selama 3 detik dan 4 detik untuk mesin stempel flash merek Flaz. Ketiga, daya listrik yang dibutuhkan lebih kecil me sin stempel flash merek Flaz yaitu sebesar 136,62 watt dan 392,34 Watt untuk merek Flaz. Keempat, konsumsi energi listrik yang dibutuhkan lebih kecil mesin stempel merek Flaz yaitu 888,39 Joule dan 1709,06 Joule untuk mesin stempel flash merek MD. Kesimpulan yang diperoleh dari penelitian unjuk kerja mesin stempel flash made in Tiongkok merek Flaz terhadap mesin stempel flash made in Indonesia merek MD diukur dari parameter kualitas hasil cap dan kecepatan waktu operasi maka mesin stempel flash made in Indonesia merek MD lebih bagus dari pada mesin stempel flash made in Tiongkok merek Flaz.

De politieke participatie aan de gemeenteraadsverkiezingen

Res Publica ◽  
1970 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 311-338
Author(s):  
Wilfried Dewachter ◽  
Edith Lismont
Keyword(s):  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Municipal Politics ◽  
Municipal Policy ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Frequent Use ◽  
The Government ◽  
Participation Research ◽  
National Electorate ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Made In

Municipal elections are not the only channel of participation in the municipal policy nor are they the only participation-problem. But it is nevertheless useful to make research into them because they are the unique institutionalized possibility of participation.This participation-research deals with the different aspects of the municipal elections.The first thing to note is that a number of council-members are pointed out by elections without competition. This phenomenon is not very extended: 373 out of some 2,600 municipalities, 12 % of the council members, 200,000 voters. There is no notable change of size since 1920 in this phenomenon.Compared to the legislative elections, candidatures are very stable and limited : an average of 2,3 candidates per seat. These limited candidatures also mean that in practically half of the cases municipal elections have a two-parties system, by which the electoral corps chose directly the Court of Mayor and Aldermen. But even in municipalities with more than two parties, this «direct choice of the government» is made in 75 % of the cases. In respect of these facts, participation is qualitatively much better than in the case of the parliamentary elections.Forsaking of choice is notably lower at municipal than at parliamentary elections. As to the use of preference-votes, the choice of the municipal electorate is richer than that of the national electorate not only because municipal electors more aften express their preference for individuals, but also and not in the least because, by this more frequent use of preference-votes, they have real participation in the choice of the councilmembers themselves.The possibilities of choice at municipal elections offer an original alternative : to vote beyond party-frontiers with the «mixed vote».  This multi-party vote is but seldom used : by 2,5 % of the electorate.And even then those who tlus mixed way lose half of their votingcapacity.  Generally seen however, the municipal elections show a more favorable participation-pattern than the legislative ones. This leads to the question if it can be imputed to the voters when something is wrong with municipal politics. Is this problem not-situated on a higher level of the participation-pyramid ?

An Application of Genetic Programming to Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates

2010 ◽  
pp. 26-48
Author(s):  
Muneer Buckley ◽  
Zbigniew Michalewicz ◽  
Ralf Zurbruegg
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Genetic Programming ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Economic Model ◽  
Dynamic Environments ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Made In

There is a great need for accurate predictions of foreign exchange rates. Many industries participate in foreign exchange scenarios with little idea where the exchange rate is moving, and what the optimum decision to make at any given time is. Although current economic models do exist for this purpose, improvements could be made in both their flexibility and adaptability. This provides much room for models that do not suffer from such constraints. This chapter proposes the use of a genetic program (GP) to predict future foreign exchange rates. The GP is an extension of the DyFor GP tailored for forecasting in dynamic environments. The GP is tested on the Australian / US (AUD/USD) exchange rate and compared against a basic economic model. The results show that the system has potential in forecasting long term values, and may do so better than established models. Further improvements are also suggested.

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