scholarly journals Is our perception of the spread of COVID-19 inherently inaccurate?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Maier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Subjective Perception ◽  
Logarithmic Function ◽  
Original Formulation ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
New Information ◽  
The World ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Future ◽  
Linear Nature

One of the most fundamental insights into the nature of our subjective perception of the world around us is that it is not veridical. In other words, we tend to not perceive information about the world around us accurately. Instead, our brains interpret new information through a host of innate and learned mechanisms that can introduce bias and distortions One of the best studied mechanisms that guide – and distort – our perception is the psychophysical Weber-Fechner law. According to this empirically derived, mathematically formulated law we tend to put more emphasis on smaller deviations in size while underestimating larger changes. The original formulation of the Weber-Fechner law takes the shape of a logarithmic function and is commonly applied to somatosensory perception such as the weight of an object. However, later work showed that the Weber-Fechner law can be generalized and describe a large variety of perceived changes in magnitude that even go beyond the sensory domain. Here we investigate the hypothesis that our perception of data associated with the spread of COVID-19 and similar pandemics is governed by the same psychophysical laws. Based on several recently published studies, we demonstrate that the Weber-Fechner law can be shown to directly affect the decision-making of officials in response to this global crisis as well as the greater public at large. We discuss how heightened awareness of the non-linear nature of subjective perception could help alleviate problematic judgements in similar situations in the future.

The Emergence of Democracy: Forces and Counter-forces

2015 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 336-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Berg-Schlosser
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Democratic Values ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Broad Overview

Capitalism and democracy have transformed the world, but not in a harmonious way. This article provides a broad overview of the major driving forces of democracy, its relationship with ongoing socioeconomic developments and some of the countervailing factors. It points to the inherently conflictive nature of democratic procedures and decision-making, but also emphasizes the potentially universal implications of basic democratic values. Against this background, the future prospects of democracy and possible alternatives in the age of globalization are assessed. All this is based, as far as space permits, on the huge body of available theoretical and empirical literature, but also on the author’s long-term preoccupation with this topic and some of his personal views and experiences.

scholarly journals CoVID-19 prediction for India from the existing data and SIR(D) model study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aditya Rajesh ◽  
Haidas Pai ◽  
Victor Roy ◽  
Subhasis Samanta ◽  
Sabyasachi Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Model Study ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
D Model ◽  
Existing Data

CoVID-19 is spreading throughout the world at an alarming rate. So far it has spread over 200 countries in the whole world. Mathematical modelling of an epidemic like CoVID-19 is always useful for strategic decision making, especially it is very useful to gain some understanding of the future of the epidemic in densely populous countries like India. We use a simple yet effective mathematical model SIR(D) to predict the future of the epidemic in India by using the existing data. We also estimate the effect of lock-down/social isolation via a time-dependent coefficient of the model. The model study with realistic parameters set shows that the epidemic will be at its peak around the end of June or the first week of July with almost 108 Indians most likely being infected if the lock-down relaxed after May 3, 2020. However, the total number of infected population will become one-third of what predicted here if we consider that people only in the red zones (approximately one-third of India's population) are susceptible to the infection. Even in a very optimistic scenario we expect that at least the infected numbers of people will be of the order of 107.

Being Yourself

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse Wall
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Major Depression ◽  
Personal Identity ◽  
The Self ◽  
Cognitive Triad ◽  
Clinical Observations ◽  
Autonomous Decision ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Legal Test

This chapter discusses authentic decision-making as it relates to depression based on three parallel concepts found in philosophy, psychology, and the law. Since major depression is characterized (amongst other things) by ‘symptoms of sadness and diminished interest or pleasure’, ‘feelings of worthlessness/excessive/inappropriate guilt’ and a ‘cognitive triad of pessimism regarding the self, the world and the future’, the chapter explores whether an individual who has these symptoms can act on a judgment, thought, or belief in a way that lacks authenticity. It first explains, in philosophical terms, why autonomous decision-making presupposes a ‘personal identity’, before outlining a series of clinical observations suggesting that competence to make a decision requires an ‘appreciative ability’. It also considers whether the legal test for the capacity to make a decision has a component that is equivalent to ‘personal identity’ or an ‘appreciative ability’.

scholarly journals A New Informatics Geography

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (01) ◽  
pp. 251-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Coiera
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Technology ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
First Principles ◽  
Task Completion ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Task Space ◽  
New Information ◽  
The World ◽  
Unanticipated Consequences

Summary Introduction: Anyone with knowledge of information systems has experienced frustration when it comes to system implementation or use. Unanticipated challenges arise frequently and unanticipated consequences may follow. Objective: Working from first principles, to understand why information technology (IT) is often challenging, identify which IT endeavors are more likely to succeed, and predict the best role that technology can play in different tasks and settings. Results: The fundamental purpose of IT is to enhance our ability to undertake tasks, supplying new information that changes what we decide and ultimately what occurs in the world. The value of this information (VOI) can be calculated at different stages of the decision-making process and will vary depending on how technology is used. We can imagine a task space that describes the relative benefits of task completion by humans or computers and that contains specific areas where humans or computers are superior. There is a third area where neither is strong and a final joint workspace where humans and computers working in partnership produce the best results. Conclusion: By understanding that information has value and that VOI can be quantified, we can make decisions about how best to support the work we do. Evaluation of the expected utility of task completion by humans or computers should allow us to decide whether solutions should depend on technology, humans, or a partnership between the two.

Opportunities and Challenges of Visualization and Open Data in Food Security Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 748-772
Author(s):  
Thida Chaw Hlaing ◽  
Julian Prior
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Security Analysis ◽  
Open Data ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Statistical Literacy ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Statistical literacy presents many aspects about food security in the world. It highlights weaknesses, it creates awareness of threats in current situations, helps overcome challenges and creates opportunities for the future. Statistical data analysis enables existing food security interventions and programs to be reviewed and revised, and this better understanding of current situations enables more authoritative and relevant decision-making processes for the future. Statistical literacy involves skills and expertise in data description and interpretation (in words as well as in numbers) to name, explore and amend beliefs, opinions and suggestions. It helps decision-making processes about food security in a sub-nation, nation and region, as well as the world. This chapter will demonstrate the importance of open data and visualization, including its challenges and opportunities, in the food security context at national and global level to make decision-makers aware of the need to enhance their capacity for and investment in statistical literacy.

An Analysis of Covid-19 Supply and Demand, and Impacts on the Post-Pandemic World

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 127-130
Author(s):  
Alex Han
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Daily Life ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Warning Sign ◽  
Behavioral Characteristics ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Domestic Markets ◽  
The World ◽  
Market Situation ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Covid-19 has impacted the world in an unprecedented way. The astounding rate that Covid-19 spreads has made it a universal and ubiquitous threat, affecting every facet of our daily life, causing changes in behavioral characteristics among individuals, communities, and governments. Accordingly, there have been drastic changes in domestic markets, governmental policies, and decision-making processes in this environment in supply and demand. This paper reviews the current market situation facing Covid 19, economic sector’s responses so far and its impact on post-pandemic era. Covid-19 has been a    warning sign that we have to do better. Although the world was unprepared for this global crisis, this could be an opportunity for governments and businesses to learn from the experience and harden up to do better under abrupt challenges that could arise in the future.

The Future of the Carter Policy Toward Southern Africa

1977 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 11-15
Author(s):  
Edgar Lockwood
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Carter Administration ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Casual Observer

Judging by public tone, style, and ideological emphasis alone, the casual observer of U.S. foreign policy is impressed by the novelty of the Carter Administration’s approach toward Southern Africa. Kissinger had stressed America’s tangible interests, sought alliances with ideological “enemies” to advance or at least to protect those interests, and operated a clever, manipulative and secretive diplomacy with calculated ambiguity. The Carter Administration now seems to espouse once more American ideals and principles, open diplomacy for announced clearly-stated objectives, and decision-making by consent. But what is really involved is a reversion to the active use of ideology and salesmanship to manage its political and economic interests. It is of a piece with “helping our little brown brothers” in Puerto Rico, Cuba, and the Philippines, making the world “safe for democracy” and saving Vietnam from Communism.

Opportunities and Challenges of Visualization and Open Data in Food Security Analysis

2017 ◽  
pp. 69-101
Author(s):  
Thida Chaw Hlaing ◽  
Julian Prior
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Security Analysis ◽  
Open Data ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Statistical Literacy ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Statistical literacy presents many aspects about food security in the world. It highlights weaknesses, it creates awareness of threats in current situations, helps overcome challenges and creates opportunities for the future. Statistical data analysis enables existing food security interventions and programs to be reviewed and revised, and this better understanding of current situations enables more authoritative and relevant decision-making processes for the future. Statistical literacy involves skills and expertise in data description and interpretation (in words as well as in numbers) to name, explore and amend beliefs, opinions and suggestions. It helps decision-making processes about food security in a sub-nation, nation and region, as well as the world. This chapter will demonstrate the importance of open data and visualization, including its challenges and opportunities, in the food security context at national and global level to make decision-makers aware of the need to enhance their capacity for and investment in statistical literacy.

Non-Linear Properties of the VIX Index

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
L. Magafas ◽  
M. Hanias ◽  
A. Tavlatou ◽  
P. Kostantaki
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Strange Attractor ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stock Indexes

This paper applies non-linear methods to analyze and predict the daily VIX index which is one of the most important stock indexes in the world. The aim of the analysis is to quantitatively show if the corresponding time series is a deterministic chaotic one and if one or more days ahead prediction can be achieved. The research employs Grassberger and Procaccia's methodology in the time series analysis in order to estimate the correlation and minimum embedding dimensions of the corresponding strange attractor. To achieve from the sample a multistep ahead prediction, the article gives the average for overall neighbours' projections of k-steps into the future. These results make the present work a valuable tool for traders, investors, and funds.

scholarly journals Rethinking the Curriculum in the Context of Education for Sustainability: Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 700
Author(s):  
Yannis Hadzigergiou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Nature Of Science ◽  
Education For Sustainability ◽  
Educational Goal ◽  
Global Awareness ◽  
Global Issues ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Ecological Thinking

In considering the current COVID-19 pandemic as a moment of reflection on a wide variety of issues, this paper discusses the need to rethink the curriculum, in regard to its priorities and in the context of education for sustainability. It does so by revisiting some ideas that have received, or have begun to receive, attention in the field of education. More specifically, the paper focuses on the development of global awareness as an educational goal, the notion of hope and the future dimension of the curriculum, the value of systems and ecological thinking, as well as the value of decision making and the role that knowledge of the nature of science can play in decision making. Given that the world will most likely face in the future complex global issues and problems, just like the COVID-19 pandemic, all the aforementioned ideas deserve particular attention, especially if the curriculum is to promote and foster the idea of sustainability.

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