scholarly journals Adopting an adaptation-mitigation-resilience framework to ageing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart Gietel-Basten
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
First Century ◽  
Policy Learning ◽  
Grand Challenges ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Climate Change Science ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Resilience Framework ◽  
Plan Action

Population ageing is presented as one of the ‘grand challenges’ of the twenty-first century. Yet, policies designed to offset these challenges seem to be a jumbled, disjointed mix with no clear, overarching narrative. One of the successes of climate change science is the development of a clear, distinguishable framework to plan action: adaptation, mitigation, and resilience. This framework can be applied to designing better policy for ageing: adapting to support people in need today; mitigating future challenges by ensuring that people and institutions ‘age better’; and building resilience by developing both a longer-term perspective and policy learning framework.

Denouement: World Politics, Systemic Leadership, and Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Thompson ◽  
Leila Zakhirova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
World Politics ◽  
First Century ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Agrarian Economy ◽  
Historical Processes

In this final chapter, we conclude by recapitulating our argument and evidence. One goal of this work has been to improve our understanding of the patterns underlying the evolution of world politics over the past one thousand years. How did we get to where we are now? Where and when did the “modern” world begin? How did we shift from a primarily agrarian economy to a primarily industrial one? How did these changes shape world politics? A related goal was to examine more closely the factors that led to the most serious attempts by states to break free of agrarian constraints. We developed an interactive model of the factors that we thought were most likely to be significant. Finally, a third goal was to examine the linkages between the systemic leadership that emerged from these historical processes and the global warming crisis of the twenty-first century. Climate change means that the traditional energy platforms for system leadership—coal, petroleum, and natural gas—have become counterproductive. The ultimate irony is that we thought that the harnessing of carbon fuels made us invulnerable to climate fluctuations, while the exact opposite turns out to be true. The more carbon fuels are consumed, the greater the damage done to the atmosphere. In many respects, the competition for systemic leadership generated this problem. Yet it is unclear whether systemic leadership will be up to the task of resolving it.

The geography of climate migration

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Michał Burzyński ◽  
Frédéric Docquier ◽  
Hendrik Scheewel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Migration ◽  
First Century ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Internal Mobility ◽  
Almost All

Abstract In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.

scholarly journals Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Yang ◽  
Maigeng Zhou ◽  
Zhoupeng Ren ◽  
Mengmeng Li ◽  
Boguang Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Specific Effect ◽  
Northern China ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

AbstractRecent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

ICT as an enabler for sustainable development: reflections on opportunities and barriers

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Bull
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Information And Communications Technology ◽  
First Century ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Comprehensive Knowledge ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Conceptual Paper

Purpose – Information and communications technology (ICT) offers a peculiar twenty-first century conundrum, as it offers both a cause and solution to rising carbon emissions. The growth in the digital economy is fueling increased energy consumption while affording new opportunities for reducing the environmental impacts of our daily lives. This paper responds and builds on Patrignani and Whitehouse’s overview of Slow Tech by providing examples of how ICT can be used to reduce energy. Encouraging examples are provided from the field of energy and buildings and implications for wider society are raised. Design/methodology/approach – This paper builds on the previous overview “The Clean Side of Slow Tech”, based on a comprehensive knowledge of literature of the latest developments in the field of digital economy, energy and sustainability. Findings – This paper provides clear and encouraging signs of how ICT can be used to contribute to sustainability through controlling systems more efficiently, facilitating behavioural changes and reducing energy consumption. Future challenges and recommendations for future research are presented. Originality/value – This conceptual paper presents the latest research into the use of ICT in energy reduction and offers cautious, but encouraging signs that while the environmental impact of ICT must not be overlooked, there are benefits to be had from the digital economy.

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