scholarly journals Voting at the dawn of a global pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arndt Leininger ◽  
Max Schaub
Keyword(s):  
Disease Spread ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
German State ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
Alignment Mechanism ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
The Impact

What is the impact of a global health crisis on political behavior? We study the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on electoral choice based on the case of Germany, one of the countries most heavily affected by the crisis. Our data come from the German state of Bavaria, where local elections were held right at the beginning of the pandemic. The elections took place early during the outbreak when there was still substantial variation in the extent to which individual counties and municipalities were affected by the outbreak. This variation provides a unique opportunity to study the causal impact of an event that would shortly after grow into an all-encompassing epidemic. We provide evidence that shows that the disease spread across the state in a mostly haphazard fashion. This lack of a discernible pattern coupled with within-county estimation of effects and a difference-in-differences strategy allow us to causally asses the effect of the spreading of the virus on electoral outcomes. Our results show that the crisis strongly and consistently benefited the dominant regional party, the CSU, and its candidates. For 3 known cases per 100,000 inhabitants, vote shares increased by about 4 percent. We explain our findings with a strategic-alignment mechanism, whereby voters vote into power candidates that they deem most likely to be able to solicit support from higher levels of government. Our findings emphasize the merit of forward-looking theories of voting and provide insights on the functioning of democracy during times of crisis.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in China: Risk Factors and R0 Revisited

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irtesam Mahmud Khan ◽  
Wenyi Zhang ◽  
Sumaira Zafar ◽  
Yong Wang ◽  
Junyu He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Geographic Region ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Visual Aid ◽  
Spatiotemporal Clustering ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 epidemic had spread rapidly through China and subsequently has proliferated globally leading to a pandemic situation around the globe. Human-to-human transmissions, as well as asymptomatic transmissions of the infection, have been confirmed. As of April 3rd, public health crisis in China due to COVID-19 is potentially under control. We compiled a daily dataset of case counts, mortality, recovery, temperature, population density, and demographic information for each prefecture during the period of January 11 to April 07, 2020 (excluding Wuhan from our analysis due to missing data). Understanding the characteristics of spatiotemporal clustering of the COVID-19 epidemic and R0 is critical in effectively preventing and controlling the ongoing global pandemic. The prefectures were grouped based on several relevant features using unsupervised machine learning techniques. We performed a computational analysis utilizing the reported cases in China to estimate the revised R0 among different regions for prevention planning in an ongoing global pandemic. Finally, our results indicate that the impact of temperature and demographic (different age group percentage compared to the total population) factors on virus transmission may be characterized using a stochastic transmission model. Such predictions will help prioritize segments of a given community/ region for action and provide a visual aid in designing prevention strategies for a specific geographic region. Furthermore, revised estimation and our methodology will aid in improving the human health consequences of COVID-19 elsewhere.

scholarly journals Impacto da pandemia do SARS-COV-2 na educação médica: migração "compulsória" para o modelo remoto, uma visão preliminar de gestores da educação médica

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luiz Fernando Quintanilha ◽  
Katia De Miranda Avena ◽  
Lucélia Batista Neves Cunha Magalhães ◽  
Bruno De Bezerril Andrade
Keyword(s):  
Medical Education ◽  
Dropout Rate ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Educational Models ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Education Management ◽  
Higher Education System ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
High Dropout Rate ◽  
The Impact

INTRODUCTION: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic affected the educational models offered in medical courses. In this context, with the authorization to offer courses remotely, there is an unprecedented acceleration in the migration from the traditional model to the eLearning model, which was already occurring gradually in the Brazilian higher education system. Due to the social isolation to face the crisis, this model is being applied in full in many Higher-educational institutions (HEIs) in the country and may have repercussions on methodological changes in medical education. OBJECTIVES: To discuss the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on medical education, analyzing the migration to eLearning Modality. METHOD: A reflection was made from management meetings at two private universities based on the authors' experience in medical education management. RESULTS: The global pandemic context has impacted teaching within the scope of students, professors, and HEIs. The high investments in the migration of the teaching model and the high dropout rate have impacted the suspension of contracts for teachers from private HEIs. The inequality of technological access, unsuitable environments, and the poor quality of telephony/internet in the country can impact on academic performance. CONCLUSIONS: It is undeniable that medical education is suffering a profound transformation by this global health crisis. However, it is too early to say with certainty the size of this impact. In the future, it will be necessary to adapt the concept of evidence-based medical education to assess the practical repercussions of this pandemic in medical education.

scholarly journals Pandemic Pivots: The Impact of a Global Health Crisis on the Dissertation in Practice

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 5-10
Author(s):  
Cassidy Alvarado ◽  
Leyda Garcia ◽  
Nikysha Gilliam ◽  
Sydney Minckler ◽  
Csilla Samay
Keyword(s):  
Global Health ◽  
Doctoral Program ◽  
Intentional Community ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Education Doctorate ◽  
Critical Friends ◽  
Leadership For Social Justice ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
New Methodologies ◽  
The Impact

Five scholarly practitioners in an educational leadership for social justice doctoral program share their intentional, community-minded pivots during a global pandemic that disrupted their Dissertations in Practice (DiP). Embodying their Ed.D. program’s CPED framework (Carnegie Project on the Education Doctorate, 2019), the authors, at varying stages in the dissertation process, sought inventive solutions to COVID-19-related challenges that included the development of a new topic and research questions, adjusting study settings and participant pools, and embracing new methodologies to account for virtual-only approaches. Although uncertain how the global health crises would impact their DiP, by fostering a shared sense of community, the authors became critical friends, supporting each other in their personal, professional, and academic lives. Each narrative highlights the potential of oppositional praxis of threading identities of practice, reflection, and research–to respond creatively to the needs of their diverse research communities with compassion, vision, and agility.

scholarly journals Peer-to-Peer Contact Tracing: Development of a Privacy-Preserving Smartphone App (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler M Yasaka ◽  
Brandon M Lehrich ◽  
Ronald Sahyouni
Keyword(s):  
Personal Data ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Smartphone App ◽  
Computer Simulation Model ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an urgent public health crisis, with epidemiologic models predicting severe consequences, including high death rates, if the virus is permitted to run its course without any intervention or response. Contact tracing using smartphone technology is a powerful tool that may be employed to limit disease transmission during an epidemic or pandemic; yet, contact tracing apps present significant privacy concerns regarding the collection of personal data such as location. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to develop an effective contact tracing smartphone app that respects user privacy by not collecting location information or other personal data. METHODS We propose the use of an anonymized graph of interpersonal interactions to conduct a novel form of contact tracing and have developed a proof-of-concept smartphone app that implements this approach. Additionally, we developed a computer simulation model that demonstrates the impact of our proposal on epidemic or pandemic outbreak trajectories across multiple rates of adoption. RESULTS Our proof-of-concept smartphone app allows users to create “checkpoints” for contact tracing, check their risk level based on their past interactions, and anonymously self-report a positive status to their peer network. Our simulation results suggest that higher adoption rates of such an app may result in a better controlled epidemic or pandemic outbreak. CONCLUSIONS Our proposed smartphone-based contact tracing method presents a novel solution that preserves privacy while demonstrating the potential to suppress an epidemic or pandemic outbreak. This app could potentially be applied to the current COVID-19 pandemic as well as other epidemics or pandemics in the future to achieve a middle ground between drastic isolation measures and unmitigated disease spread.

scholarly journals Changes in Lifestyle and Dietary Habits during COVID-19 Lockdown in Italy: Results of an Online Survey

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1923
Author(s):  
Melania Prete ◽  
Anna Luzzetti ◽  
Livia S. A. Augustin ◽  
Giuseppe Porciello ◽  
Concetta Montagnese ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Dietary Habits ◽  
Eating Habits ◽  
Physically Active ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Added Sugars ◽  
Validated Questionnaires ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Italian Cohort

COVID-19 is an unprecedented global pandemic. On 12 March 2020, a lockdown order was issued in Italy in attempt to contain the health crisis. The study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on diet, physical activity, sleep quality, and distress in an Italian cohort. An online anonymous interview, which included validated questionnaires was created to compare lifestyle habits pre- and during the lockdown. Data analysis from 604 subjects with a mean age of 29.8 years was carried out using multivariate analysis. Compared to pre-COVID-19 times, 67% of people changed their eating habits and increased consumption of foods containing added sugars. Women and men with low adherence to the Mediterranean Diet (MedDiet) were more likely to be physically inactive (p < 0.0001 and p < 0.01, respectively). Results from logistic regression showed a three times higher risk of being inactive if adherence to the MedDiet was low (p < 0.0001), especially in men between 26 and 35 years. Lower levels of distress were reported in males who were physically active (89%) (p < 0.001). Our findings may help to identify effective lifestyle interventions during restrictive conditions.

scholarly journals Spill Over of Novel Covid-19 Pandemic on Punjab Tourism

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramanpreet Kaur ◽  
Manju Mittal
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Impact

The paper purposes to describe the spread of Covid-19 in Punjab, pre Covid-19 period, its effects on Punjab Tourism, and also put forwards a set of recovery measures for tourism sector. The data used is secondary in nature, collected from news broadcasted by several media outlets, various journals, newspapers, articles and official website of Punjab Tourism, Ministry of Tourism, WHO.  The study investigated that the outbreak of the global pandemic Covid-19 (Corona Virus Disease -2019) pandemic is an unprecedented shock to the state’s tourism industry. The Punjab Tourism was in a prospering state before Covid-19 struck. With the prolonged country-wide lockdown, global economic downturn and associated disruption of movement of tourists, the Punjab tourism industry is facing an extended period of decline.  The study indicates the effects of Covid-19 in Punjab Tourism and also extends the preventive measures to tackle the pandemic. Although, the length of the impact will depend upon the duration and gravity of the health crisis, the duration of the lockdown and the manner in which the situation unfolds once the lockdown is lifted yet the situation can be tackled by adopting the suggestive recovery measures.  Key words: COVID-19 Pandemic; Punjab Tourism; Tourists Arrival; Spill Over; Recovery Measures.

scholarly journals Peer-to-Peer Contact Tracing: Development of a Privacy-Preserving Smartphone App

10.2196/18936 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. e18936 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler M Yasaka ◽  
Brandon M Lehrich ◽  
Ronald Sahyouni
Keyword(s):  
Personal Data ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Smartphone App ◽  
Computer Simulation Model ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Background The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an urgent public health crisis, with epidemiologic models predicting severe consequences, including high death rates, if the virus is permitted to run its course without any intervention or response. Contact tracing using smartphone technology is a powerful tool that may be employed to limit disease transmission during an epidemic or pandemic; yet, contact tracing apps present significant privacy concerns regarding the collection of personal data such as location. Objective The aim of this study is to develop an effective contact tracing smartphone app that respects user privacy by not collecting location information or other personal data. Methods We propose the use of an anonymized graph of interpersonal interactions to conduct a novel form of contact tracing and have developed a proof-of-concept smartphone app that implements this approach. Additionally, we developed a computer simulation model that demonstrates the impact of our proposal on epidemic or pandemic outbreak trajectories across multiple rates of adoption. Results Our proof-of-concept smartphone app allows users to create “checkpoints” for contact tracing, check their risk level based on their past interactions, and anonymously self-report a positive status to their peer network. Our simulation results suggest that higher adoption rates of such an app may result in a better controlled epidemic or pandemic outbreak. Conclusions Our proposed smartphone-based contact tracing method presents a novel solution that preserves privacy while demonstrating the potential to suppress an epidemic or pandemic outbreak. This app could potentially be applied to the current COVID-19 pandemic as well as other epidemics or pandemics in the future to achieve a middle ground between drastic isolation measures and unmitigated disease spread.

scholarly journals Impacts of the COVID-19 Control Measures on Widening Educational Inequalities

Young ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 110330882110274
Author(s):  
Merike Darmody ◽  
Emer Smyth ◽  
Helen Russell
Keyword(s):  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Learning Loss ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Learning Gap ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 has resulted in a global public health crisis. Measures adopted by governments across the world to reduce transmission have resulted in the closure of educational institutions and workplaces and reduced social interaction. The aim of the article is to reflect on the consequences of the COVID-19 global pandemic for the lives of young people from different social groups, with a special focus on education. It is a desk-based review of empirical research that has emerged in the wake of COVID-19 that has explored the impact of the control measures adopted, resulting in ‘learning loss’ and the widening of the ‘learning gap’ among students. The review shows that rather than utilizing the current situation to tackle pre-existing social inequalities in education, current debates often narrowly focus on immediate rather than long-term measures. The article calls for a broader research agenda on the short- and long-term compensatory measures needed to re-engage students, especially those from more disadvantaged backgrounds.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in China: Risk Factors and R0 Revisited

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irtesam Mahmud Khan ◽  
Wenyi Zhang ◽  
Sumaira Zafar ◽  
Yong Wang ◽  
Junyu He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Geographic Region ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Visual Aid ◽  
Spatiotemporal Clustering ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 epidemic had spread rapidly through China and subsequently has proliferated globally leading to a pandemic situation around the globe. Human-to-human transmissions, as well as asymptomatic transmissions of the infection, have been confirmed. As of April 3rd, public health crisis in China due to COVID-19 is potentially under control. Methods: We compiled a daily dataset of case counts, mortality, recovery, temperature, population density, and demographic information for each prefecture during the period of January 11 to April 07, 2020 (excluding Wuhan from our analysis due to missing data). Understanding the characteristics of spatiotemporal clustering of the COVID-19 epidemic and R0 is critical in effectively preventing and controlling the ongoing global pandemic. The prefectures were grouped based on several relevant features using unsupervised machine learning techniques. We performed a computational analysis utilizing the reported cases in China to estimate the revised R0 among different regions for prevention planning in an ongoing global pandemic. Results: Finally, our results indicate that the impact of temperature and demographic (different age group percentage compared to the total population) factors on virus transmission may be characterized using a stochastic transmission model. Conclusions: Such predictions will help prioritize segments of a given community/ region for action and provide a visual aid in designing prevention strategies for a specific geographic region. Furthermore, revised estimation and our methodology will aid in improving the human health consequences of COVID-19 elsewhere.

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